Depleted Mets Outfield Combines To Form Rosie From The Jetsons

by Sam Page on Jun 26, 2009 7:00 AM EDT Comment 32 comments

Super-outfielder robots can't materialize without their head, so the Mets need to determine the best substitute robot they can make with the player available. Potential components include RF Ryan Church, LF Fernando Martinez, "CF" Jeremy Reed, LF Nick Evans, LF Fernando Tatis, and "OF" Gary Sheffield. So far, Fernando has been manning center with Church playing regularly in right, and Sheffield left when available.

Many fans think Martinez is a natural fit for center, being reasonably fast and having played there throughout his minor league career. His playing center in the minors, however, had more to do with organizational philosophy than his ability. The Mets like to keep prospects at the premium position, in order to maximize their value. Scouts seemed to agree that F! didn't run clean enough routes for center, projecting him as a long term corner outfielder. TotalZone data agreed:

Year	Team	Runs	Runs/150
2006	St. Lucie	-7	-
2006	Hagerstown	3	-
2007	Binghamton	-10	-26
2008	Binghamton	-7	-12

That's pretty bad. The other popular option for centerfield is Jeremy Reed. He's a career 2.1 UZR/150 in center, but just a career -1.2 UZR/150 for all three outfield positions, thanks to his terrible arm. That arm, coupled with his terrible offense, makes him no better than a late inning defensive replacement for Sheffield. Just how empty is his .293 batting average? His wOBA is actually lower at .290, good for 2.5 runs below average. How many other players can claim that? I'd say Juan Pierre is a good comparable for Reed's skillset, but honestly that's an insult to Juan Pierre. He's Juan Pierre without a modicum of plate discipline or speed. What does that leave? A -.2 WAR.

That's why Ryan Church should get some play in center. His career UZR/150 in center is 2.7. That number would make him the 5th best defensive centerfielder in the NL this season (standard warning: it's just one metric in a small sample size). Although his bat has been bad so far, he figures to be better down the stretch. His ZiPS rest-of-season projected wOBA is .351.

Moving Church to center would open up right for Fernando Martinez and Evans, who had a very good UZR in left last year. This allignment would also open up first for Murphy, giving all the young Mets regular playing time and Gary Sheffield regular rest. Also, this set-up provides the best offense and arguably the best defense too, keeping Tatis and Reed benched.

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I'm pretty sure Voltron alone is better than all six of those guys combined.

At least until F! reaches his potential and becomes the greatest player ever to have lived. Hopefully that happens by Saturday.

"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."

by Evan_S on Jun 26, 2009 7:21 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I completely disagree. Ryan Church hasn’t played CF on a regular basis in at least 2-3 years. He’s just not a starting everyday CF.

F! played a great CF yesterday, and he’s going to be fine. Leave F! in CF, and stop complaining about his UZR in the minors….the only reason people predict him moving to the corners is because of the prediction that he will fill out and lose a portion of his speed. That hasn’t happened, so there’s no need to worry about it yet.

by ljshorty89 on Jun 26, 2009 8:21 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

disagree

as sam mentioned, it clears up so many of the playing time/lineup issues that it really is the smart move.

don’t get me wrong, i love fernando as much as anyone but we can’t keep running him out there if he insists on baltimore-chopping our opponents to death. and jerry’s most likely solution, substituting jeremy reed for fernando, doesn’t help the offense too much more and doesn’t help fix the sheffield/murphy/evans/tatis jumble whatsoever.

fernando was playing a solid CF but nothing special, he hasn’t been carlos gomez out there. so as long as church can also play a passable center (which i’m very confident he can based on his plus aptitude in RF and his CF days in WAS/MON) this is the most efficient/right move

by robcast23 on Jun 26, 2009 9:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If this were a season-long assignment

I would worry but for the 2-3 weeks that Beltran is out, Church and Martinez will be fine.

by TheBigStapler on Jun 26, 2009 9:21 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I disagree again Sam

Minor league advanced defensive metrics are sketchy, and so far Martinez has played extremely well in center. If we get a Cedeno (or Murphy) moment, maybe we rethink things.

Remember, Church last played center field 2 years ago, was -2.2 UZR, and the year before that was -7.6 (even with an arm of .9). It’s been two years since then, he’s lost a step or two, has been on the disabled list twice (last time with a leg injury!), and so far only has a .7 UZR in RF, a much easier position.

Let Nick Evans play left, F! play center, and Church play right.

Jerry Manuel...stop being....stupid...

by MetsGeek on Jun 26, 2009 9:31 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Also, his 2007 numbers look bad, but the guy was playing centerfield in AA as an eighteen year old

Jerry Manuel...stop being....stupid...

by MetsGeek on Jun 26, 2009 9:33 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

So

is there an obstacle course in the outfield in AA? Scouts almost universally railed on his defense, and one play isn’t going to change that perception of him. Also, there’s not much point in citing all those partial seasons with Church, as 1 full year of defensive data is the statistical equivalent of 1/3 of a year of hitting data, in terms of significance. Honestly what’s the worst Church could be? -5 runs below average? His bat would obviously carry that.

This alignment makes the most sense offensively and unless you really think there’s a big gap in defense from Martinez to Church, I don’t think that’s a great argument against it.

King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president

by Sam Page on Jun 26, 2009 9:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I can see your point, but Martinez is going to have to play anyway, he’d shift over to RF if Church played CF, and Church, with the stronger arm should be in RF. F! has looked fine in CF. You’re not gaining ANY offense, because the same two guys are in the lineup anyway, and the “benefit” of moving F! to RF and Church to an unnatural position(even if he’s played there before) do not outweigh the costs of making such an unnecessary shift.

by ljshorty89 on Jun 26, 2009 10:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would love to see a study concluding

whether range in CF is more valuable than arm strength in RF. Maybe they’re apples and oranges.

In any case, that’s kind of the situation we have. Is it better to keep Church in RF just because of his excellent arm?

by TheBigStapler on Jun 26, 2009 10:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Even if one is more valuable than the other, F! showed more range in CF yesterday than Church would likely have, and Church has the better arm for RF. I don’t see where the question lies….

by ljshorty89 on Jun 26, 2009 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You may be underrating Church

but I agree that Martinez looked good out there.

by TheBigStapler on Jun 26, 2009 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I know Church has played CF, and he’s a GREAT defensive RF, I know he could probably be a decent defensive CF. I’m not saying he’d be a liability at all. But, to me, from what I saw yesterday, F! is a better defensive CF right now than I see Church being right now. To me, it’s a no brainer. But if Sam can coem up with some form of information to convince me otherwise, we’ll talk.

by ljshorty89 on Jun 26, 2009 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He was killed by scouts on defense?

Also in January, www.ESPN.com‘s Keith Law presented the first annual Scouts Inc. top baseball prospects list, and coming in at #6 was Fernando Martinez, stating: "Martinez doesn’t look or carry himself like a teenager, and had no trouble against Double-A and Triple-A pitchers in the Arizona Fall League. Plus glove in center as well."

Apparently people rave about his defense, but I have no idea how much weight to put into that. He can probably handle CF, I suppose.

Scouting report: Injuries have gotten in the way — in 2008 it was a hamstring issue — but many still believe Martinez will hit for average and power as he matures. Reviews are mixed, but most still like his bat speed from the left side. He’s got a good arm and played good defense in center this past season.

With a plus arm and speed, Martinez should be able to stay in center field. His overall performance was all the more impressive considering that he was making his pro debut after signing last summer for the biggest bonus on the international market in 2005."

Jerry Manuel...stop being....stupid...

by MetsGeek on Jun 26, 2009 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

just to clarify

those were all quotes in bold

Jerry Manuel...stop being....stupid...

by MetsGeek on Jun 26, 2009 10:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well I'll try to look for some contrary evidence later

but I will say, none of those people are actually scouts, except maybe the mlb.com one.

King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president

by Sam Page on Jun 26, 2009 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Keith Law

is the head of scouting for ESPN

Jerry Manuel...stop being....stupid...

by MetsGeek on Jun 26, 2009 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

My impression of F!'s defense

Between the reports, the numbers, and the occasional glances at his ability, was that there were two issues:

1. How much athleticism will he retain when he gets older?

If he starts losing some speed or agility, his defensive “tools” will probably grade out as average to slightly above. If he doesn’t, he’s an above average athlete right now, a good enough athlete to combine with good skills and make himself into a quality defender, but this brings us to the second point

2. Will his skills in the outfield develop any further?

The numbers certainly suggest he has not been a good outfielder, and for the most part, scouts didn’t really believe he’d be one long term when considering these two issues. The fact that he is a good athlete now makes it seem like the numbers are saying his skills are well below par for an outfielder.

I think what this means is that he still has plus defensive potential, but the majority of outcomes leave him average or somewhere below. Maybe he improves his skills but loses a step. Maybe he retains his athleticism but never develops the skills. Maybe he loses speed and never develops the skills. The positive outcomes would only happen if keeps his speed up and manages to make big improvements skill-wise.

There are two things to remember here though:

1. Statistically, using TotalZone, we’re only analyzing his career through 2008. Even if you buy into low level minor league record keeping (which I tend to, if only for the sake of argument, and because its all we gotz), that’s three partial seasons worth of data, two of which were injury shortened, and one of which was leg injury shortened.

2. I also happen to think this is relevant:

Also, his 2007 numbers look bad, but the guy was playing centerfield in AA as an eighteen year old

While there may be no inherent difference in playing defense at different levels, there is a difference between having to suddenly learn to hit Double-A pitching AND adjusting your defense to match the quality of the league, which is a big part of how TotalZone is calculated. F! was quite busy in 2007 trying to teach himself to hit advanced pitchers. I’m sure he didn’t ignore defense, but I’m also sure his development was being much more geared towards hitting at this point, and that this occupied the vast majority of his “practice time”.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Meddler on Jun 26, 2009 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just to clarify that last part also

TotalZone uses league averages to calculate their numbers. CF itself is the same in any ballpark in the world aside from differences in stadium configuration. But the level of defense in the upper levels is generally going to be higher. Even the plus hitters are older and less likely to be at an important defensive position without playing a high enough quality defense, and more likely to be playing the position they’d be expected to play in the majors. In the lower levels, my guess is the league averages are to be a result of much larger deviations at positions like CF, SS, and C. There are going to some superior defenders down there on natural ability alone, but for a lot of teenagers there is a learning curve for defense.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Meddler on Jun 26, 2009 7:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I got it, guys!...

Kenny. Lofton.

by TheBigStapler on Jun 26, 2009 10:02 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Agreed.

In some capacity, Church should be playing regularly, with Sheff playing as much as he can, and the remaining playing time split in some capacity by the youngsters.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jun 26, 2009 10:23 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The thing I'd worry about with Church in CF

He has more guys he can collide with. Instead of just the first basemen and secondbasemen, he can now collide with short, second, left and right. He’s a bit of a bull in a china shop.

by David G on Jun 26, 2009 10:40 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Also, hasn't anyone noticed..

Martinez is an automatic out and he’s not close to being ready. He seems to have the right attitude, but at some point his confidence may start to wain as his avg. dips towards .150. I’d send him down and play Reed a little more. Call up Havens, see what he can do at short/second.

by David G on Jun 26, 2009 10:44 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

His BABIP is .197

but then again, his GB% is 55.7% and his LD% is 11.5%

by TheBigStapler on Jun 26, 2009 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Martinez isn't close to ready, but Havens is?

Not sure I follow that logic.

"He's definitely mixing it into his repertoire. That's French for 'repertoire' " - Keith Hernandez

by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Jun 26, 2009 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Havens IS older

which is just crazy, when you think about it. But, yea, I think we should give F! some more time before saying he’s not ready.

by cjmulrain on Jun 26, 2009 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"Martinez isn't ready. If you call up Havens, who isn't ready either, you'd see him struggle too"

Is what I understood.

by Michkin on Jun 26, 2009 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Someone is listening to wFAN

Yesterday, WFAN’s Mike Francesa said the Mets may soon need to consider sending Martinez back to the minor leagues if his batting average dips below .150, for fear his confidence could be totally shattered.

Francesa said he would be worried that, for a 19–year-old kid, Martinez could psych himself out and begin believing he is incapable of playing in the major leagues, creating a huge set back for the young prospect, which could take years to recover from.

For future reference, I would avoid taking advice from Francesa, especially with this arbitriray .150 average where confidence is offically shattered that could take years to recover. With that said, Fernando is clearly overmatched but with our options I don’t mind him getting his feet wet as long as he’s playing most days.

by Sokojoe on Jun 26, 2009 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I thought it was common knowledge that a .150 batting average destroyed a player's psyche.

I believe anything lower than the .120 mark leaves a player susceptible to spontaneous combustion.

"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."

by Evan_S on Jun 26, 2009 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

See, I thought he got that from Jerry

In their interview, I thought Jerry alluded to that and Francesa ran with it for the rest of the show.

BTW, gotta love sports talk radio. After Santana outdueled Carpenter yesterday, I was expecting them to at least mention that they won (not couting the 20/20 flashes). But no, he fielded yankees calls for the next 90 minutes. I get he’s a Yankee fan, but c’mon, its the FLAGSHIP STATION OF NEW YORK METS for crying out loud.

/rant.

by meigs1414 on Jun 26, 2009 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Using Rosie was not appropriate

1)Rosie is a blue robot from the future, how cool is that?
2)~~She~~ It She always cleanup’ed ~~the mess~~, something the Mets actually lack right now.
3)The Jetsons take ~~her~~ it her for granted. There is one memorable episode when she goes away and the family falls apart.

by Michkin on Jun 26, 2009 2:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs