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The State Of The 2009 Mets

David Wright and Nick Evans are the best of friends. Not pictured: Daniel Murphy seething with jealousy. (AP Photo/Paul J. Bereswill)

More photos » Paul J. Bereswill - AP

David Wright and Nick Evans are the best of friends. Not pictured: Daniel Murphy seething with jealousy. (AP Photo/Paul J. Bereswill)

The Mets have been beaten down for much of the season by injuries, inept roster construction and often-puzzling on-field strategery. What should the Mets' game plan be as we move into the dog days of summer?

Star-divide

Step 1: Be the underdog

The Mets may have entered the season as, if not the team to beat, certainly one of the favorites to represent the National League in the World Series, but a number of things have conspired to knock them down quite a few pegs. Their $140 million roster has been pared down -- by way of injury -- to a $60 million 25-man roster [* comparing $60 to $140 creates a gap that is artificially larger than it should be; we should really be comparing the Mets' current 25-man payroll to their Opening Day 25-man payroll, since contracts like Billy Wagner's $10 million shouldn't reasonably be counted in either figure, though in this case it's included in the $140 million but not the $60 million. There are other problems, too, but this is the most glaring]. There's no immediate timetable for the returns of Carlos Delgado, Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, J.J. Putz, John Maine or Oliver Perez. In fact, Billy Wagner, out since last season following Tommy John surgery, could conceivably be back with the Mets before some of their 2009 casualties.

For the time being, these big-budget DL-ers have been replaced by far less expensive -- and, in most cases, far less productive -- alternatives. Fernando Martinez and Jeremy Reed are sharing time in centerfield in place of Beltran, and the pair is making barely $1 million combined. Fernando Tatis replaced Delgado at first, but he has since been replaced by Daniel Murphy, who is now apparently splitting time with Nick Evans. The trio make around $2.5 million in aggregate. Maine and Perez have made way for Tim Redding and Fernando Nieve, who earn well under $3 million as a pair. All of these second-stringers have something to prove: the youngsters want to show they belong with the big club; the older guys are relishing the unexpected playing time with perhaps an eye towards their next contract.

However they got here, and whatever they're making, and whatever their individual motives, these are your 2009 New York Mets for the foreseeable future. They're not what we all envisioned on paper when the season began, and on a different piece of paper they really shouldn't be competitive with the Phillies and the other first-division teams of the National League. So what? Let the lofty expectations fall on everyone else for once, and let the kids and the would-be second-fiddles take the ball every day and see what they can do. Maybe they'll flop, or maybe they'll emerge as first-fiddles, with players like Martinez, Murphy and Evans guiding this team into the next decade. Whichever the case, the pressure should be off, because this group can't be held up to the expectations of the team that featured Delgado, Reyes et al. This team should be happy to win half of its games, and we should be happy to watch them try to exceed those expectations.

Step 2: Wait for guys to get healthy

The Mets are fortunate that the Phillies, Braves and Marlins have all been mediocre teams to this point. If any of them were playing like the Dodgers the Mets could very well be out of the race already. Thankfully they're not, and none of the Mets' division rivals seem primed to surge out to a big lead anytime soon. Despite how often things seem to have gone wrong to this point, the Mets find themselves amid the convergence of propitious circumstances. Their backups are performing adequately, their opponents are scuffling, and they have in-house replacements that will be ready to rejoin the team at varying points over the next three months. There's no Jose Reyes-caliber player available for trade. Nobody is giving away a Carlos Delgado or a John Maine. Even if they were, are you ready to part with Wilmer Flores instead of waiting for your own guy to get healthy?

Reyes, Maine and Perez could all return in July. Ditto Beltran. Putz and Delgado could be back by September. Likewise Wagner. The Phillies aren't likely to sit on their hands and hope their own fortunes improve, and will look to bolster their team with an acquisition or two. Regardless, the Mets can afford to wait and see how things pan out, and if they can keep the division competitive until their fallen heroes begin to reenter the fray, they will be in a very good position to wrestle away the NL East from any and all comers. None of this comes with a guarantee; maybe the Phillies deal a few prospects for Cliff Lee and Mark DeRosa and then reel off a 20-5 run. If that happens, the Mets may be out of luck anyway, so they should proceed as if it won't, and cobble together a semi-decent roster that can at least tread water for the time being before the divisional playoff picture becomes clearer.

Step 3: Don't do anything stupid

Trading good young minor leaguers for someone like Mark DeRosa is not in the best interest of this team, and certainly isn't in the best interest of next year's team and beyond. Decent big leaguers are not going to put this team over the top. If a superstar becomes available who might help the 2009 Mets as well as the 2010 Mets and maybe even the 2011 Mets, then perhaps you look to make a deal that will benefit the franchise for years to come. Jon Garland is not the answer. Anyone like Jon Garland isn't the answer. The Mets might be fortunate to be just a half-game out of first place two-and-a-half weeks before the All-Star Game, but noone in the NL East is in an immediate position to take a stranglehold on the division and the Mets need to realize that.

Dealing Jon Niese and Brad Holt (e.g.) for a player who might add one win to the team over the final three months is not a wise use of resources. Trading four prospects for Johan Santana, however, is exactly why you hang on to prospects in the first place. Well, apart from actually grooming them to play for your own big club. There is nobody in the Mets' system who should be considered untouchable as a matter of principle, but you have to be prudent and responsible with your most valuable assets. If someone like, say, Joe Mauer were somehow available, then you think about opening the vault. Ditto Dan Haren. These are players who can rarely be had on the open market and who are often only available via trade. Bronson Arroyo and Jarrod Washburn are the sort of player that is readily available almost year-round, so parting with anything better than a mid-level prospect for mediocre big league talent is always a fatuous proposition.

The bottom line
  1. Embrace the underdog role, temper expectations and see what the kids can do.
  2. Keep the system intact unless top-flight talent becomes available.
  3. Don't be daft; bide your time until injuries heal and the front-liners return to action.
  4. Have a little fun. It's baseball, after all.

4 recs  |  Comment 51 comments |

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Great article

Underdogness will be fun at times (like Monday) and terrible at times (like Tuesday).

Jerry Manuel...stop being....stupid...

by MetsGeek on Jun 26, 2009 12:02 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Joe Mauer

Hold on, let me fantasize about squiring him for ANYTHING THE TWINS WANT for a second. ahhhh

The 2009 Amazin' Avenue: SCREW K-ROD, SIGN FUENTES! Check it out, K-Rod ERA under 1.00, Fuentes over 5.00. CASTILLO MUST GO! Castillo is hitting .300!! DON'T SIGN SHEFFIELD! Sheffield has been a great signing. OMIR WHO? Omir grand slam! OMIR SUCKS! Omir takes Papelbon deep to win. CASTRO OVER OMIR! Omir drives in every Met run, wins game! EPIC FAIL.

by ZaBlanc on Jun 26, 2009 12:18 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Mauer scares me.........

atleast the concept of signing him long term. So big, and already back issues. I don’t know how he is going to age over the course of the next 5 or 6 years (assuming if we trade for him you are locking him up). Haren, on the other hand, I will give almost anything for. He is a wonderful arm, and I always wanted him, I very much preferred him over Santana last winter (not that I am complaining about Johan).

"It's like the old phrase goes.....The balls in your court now Mr.Church, so you take that ball, you dribble it up the court and....................................... get a layup"
- Keith Hernandez

by nrmax88 on Jun 26, 2009 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm curious

Why did you prefer Dan Haren?

by TheBigStapler on Jun 26, 2009 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Younger, cheaper

and quite likely better going forward. However, he did require a greater haul than Johan.

by Zwill on Jun 26, 2009 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Splendid piece!

If this current hodgepodge group can at least keep it close to 1st place in the NL East until the Reyes, Beltran and Delgado make it back, I think the Mets will be fine. The added rest for all three players can only be a positive going into the 2nd half of the season.

I think the Mets are going to be just fine. (On knees, hands together, looking toward the heavens).

by OVERALLSPORTSFAN on Jun 26, 2009 1:33 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Both our first and second fiddles

are second bananas.

as of now, we’re playing a bunch of 2nd banana fiddles…

by keepcoolbutcare on Jun 26, 2009 1:43 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Nice piece...but

are you ready to part with Wilmer Flores instead of waiting for your own guy to get healthy?

Yes, yes I am. The league is there for the taking and if we can make a trade to help us now and in the future, why not?

A guy like Victor Martinez can subsidize the line-up until everyone gets healthy, play catcher when Delgado comes back and is under contract for a very reasonable sum next year to take over at 1st base. There is no one on the market better next year. People are critical of his unsustainable stats this year and his health (and I’m with that), but he is still an excellent player that fills a need both immidiately and next year.

Can one player save us? No, but if we get Reyes, Beltran, Mainer and Ollie back in the next month or so, they won’t have to.

I don’t know what the cost is, but if it’s Flores and Niese, I’m buying.

I understand the sentiment of not trading players for fill-in’s whose roles will become redundant when our own players get healthy, but I feel that you need to do what you can to validate a $150 million roster rather than just waiting for next year. That’s a lot of money to potentially throw away and I think a guy like that can keep us afloat and hopefully push us over the top once we get everyone back.

Reyes SS
Castillo 2B
Wright 3B
Beltran CF
Delgado 1B
V. Martinez C
Sheffield LF
Church RF

That is a championship caliber line-up. I’ll take that over what Philadelphia puts out there any day of the week. I think we need one more piece to do it and I think it is time to get a sense of urgency about winning now.

Everyone is entitled to be stupid, but Jerry abuses the privilege.

by AnthonyR on Jun 26, 2009 1:48 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I think Eric's point

was that we shouldn’t trade our farm for players that can only help us this year. If that person is a long-term solution, then it could be worth doing. I don’t think he meant that Flores is untouchable (although maybe he does feel that way).

Of course, whether or not Martinez is worth Flores specifically is another debate altogether.

by TheBigStapler on Jun 26, 2009 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sure, sure.

And I agree with the sentiment of the piece. I just think the emergence of some guys this year on the farm has given us the flexibility to think about a “win now” type of deal.

I think, even if it costs us, that this team needs another piece. The question is, is that guy out there and is the cost exhorbinant?

I wish there was more out there about what guys like Dunn, Holliday, Martinez, etc. would cost in terms of prospects. My point of Flores and Niese very well may be WAAAAAAY off.

Everyone is entitled to be stupid, but Jerry abuses the privilege.

by AnthonyR on Jun 26, 2009 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Again, he said only for a star.

No Flores for DeRosa. That barely helps at all.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jun 26, 2009 6:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Victor Martinez etc

I don’t think Niese and Flores would get him, but I do that deal in a heartbeat.

I appreciate the sentiment of this article. I don’t think we should go trading a bunch of our top 10 for some of the mid-range starting pitchers you mentioned. However, I think Omar should (and I would believe he is) looking into guys like Aubrey Huff (my personal choice) and DeRosa.

 I don’t think you have to give up a crazy package for a guy like Huff. He solidifies the lineup, and can lay the OF if and when Delgado returns. If he takes well to New York, you probably have an advantage in resigning him come the off season. Not every mid-season move is inhereantly short-sighted.

by njk237 on Jun 26, 2009 2:07 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

i would still trade for dunn

but if we don’t give up the farm for them i would take v-mart or huff in a new york minute

by Jadden Hopkins on Jun 26, 2009 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Russell Branyan is Aubrey Huff, but good.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jun 26, 2009 6:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

According to my calculations, all we need is about 12% more Omir...

… and we’ll cruise to the series.

"It's Father's Day today at Shea, so to all you fathers out there, Happy Birthday." -- Ralph Kiner

by dissento on Jun 26, 2009 2:25 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

My calculations are a bit different. We need:

9% more Grission
5% more BABIP from Dub
28% more Blue Collar Blasts
95% less DL (I don´t mind Ollie spending more time there)

by Michkin on Jun 26, 2009 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Rec'd

Good stuff. If I were Omar Minaya, I would probably be tempted to do something stupid in order to better our short-term prospects. But I think the most important part of the article is that the Mets can’t do this.

"I have discovered in twenty years of moving around a ball park, that the knowledge of the game is usually inverse in proportion to the price of the seats." - Bill Veeck

by Prince on Jun 26, 2009 2:26 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I would still try and get DeRosa

Mainly because Tatis has been so bad and Sheff could go on the DL. They need more help from the right side. Evans has had a nice start, but can it continue? If all it took was a couple mid-level guys for DeRosa, I’d do it. Even if it was Niese straight up for DeRosa, you’d have to consider that. Niese is no future ace, come on. DeRosa is also a guy who can continue to play when the other guys get healthy. He could be the 2b vs. lefties, and fill in OF, 1st, etc. when needed. Prospects are exactly that. Prospects.

by David G on Jun 26, 2009 2:36 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

i don't know why people like derosa so much

he’s good but he’s not someone that can do much for this team.he has some pop but i don’t think he can hit many out of citi

by Jadden Hopkins on Jun 26, 2009 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

DeRosa isn't really that good.

Niese NOW would add more to the team than DeRosa.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jun 26, 2009 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Untrue. Niese is a back of the rotation "Prospect"

It’s pretty well out there that there should not be much higher expectations than that for him. Livan, Nieve, Figueroa…I mean they pretty much grow on trees. DeRosa and the supplemental pick when he leaves for Niese is not a bad deal at this point.

He has been passed by Mejia and Holt in value and we are a big market team. His value cannot supercede that of someone who can play six positions on a team decimated by injury.

Hell, I’ll take a ride with the Supplemental Pick to see if we can get someone with a higher ceiling.

Everyone is entitled to be stupid, but Jerry abuses the privilege.

by AnthonyR on Jun 26, 2009 7:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Niese over Redding is pretty obvious.

And I think you’re undervaluing Niese. He’s got a mid rotation ceiling. If you looked closely at Niese’s stats, you’d see how good he’s been, outpitching Michael Bowden, for example.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jun 26, 2009 7:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes, absolutely.

Me over Redding is obvious, but if they are not going to do it, his value is not such that we “have” to hold on to him.

If you are not going to let him pitch, turn him in to something of value. I just don’t see a place in the rotation for him in the future.

Everyone is entitled to be stupid, but Jerry abuses the privilege.

by AnthonyR on Jun 27, 2009 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree that he shouldn't be "off limits" from a trade perspective.

But to use him for anything other than a trade for a long term important player would be a waste. A mid rotation starter is more important than a Mark DeRosa type player, for example. Especially since we have Jose at short, David at 3rd, and DeRosa can’t hit well enough to play 1st long term.
And trading Niese now would be stupid on all levels. His value is lower than it should be, so if we trade him at all, it should be after he pitches more at the MLB level. Otherwise, we’re just giving up value.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jun 27, 2009 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

This is fantastic.

Step 3, especially, is vital. I think I am not alone among AAers in that the trading deadline is the source of all my greatest fears about this season. While I’d love to see the team pick up a player like Dan Haren (Mauer is more of a wet dream than a possibility, I think), the thing that is currently keeping me up nights is the possibility of Omar making a panic deal for a somewhat-above-average non-superstar rental player.

by anonymous on Jun 26, 2009 2:49 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

If the goal is just to get the playoffs

Then by all means stay put, don’t add a player, they could win the division or a wild card once guys get back. But, if they want to win a pennant or a world series, they need another bat, it’s that simple. The Dodgers have a significantly better team imo.

by David G on Jun 26, 2009 4:42 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Baseball history

is littered with the stories of so-so teams who beat out superior competition to win the World Series. See: 2006 Cardinals, 1960 Pirates, many in between.

by Eric Simon on Jun 26, 2009 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think with our recent track record...

…we can respectfully bow out of that discussion.

Everyone is entitled to be stupid, but Jerry abuses the privilege.

by AnthonyR on Jun 26, 2009 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Why?

The last three seasons mean nothing. Look at some recent WS winners: The ’01-06 Phillies were also-rans until they won the division in ’07 and the World Series in ’08. The ’05 Cardinals were failures who lost a series to a team 11 games worse than them in the regular season. And then they won the WS the following year with an inferior roster. The ’04 Red Sox were battling an 80+ year curse and down to their last out and about to be swept … until they won everything.

There’s no reason to assume that what has happened in the past will continue in the future.

by Zwill on Jun 26, 2009 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Those 3 examples have absolutely nothing to do with us.

It’s not that we were “also rans”. We were the favorite and the better team each time.

Curses are fictional…this is not a curse, it is a trend. A trend that we need to get the hell rid of at all costs. What is to be said of this team that if with this roster, we fail again?

We have not proven to be that type of team, but rather the team that is defeated by inferior teams.

Everyone is entitled to be stupid, but Jerry abuses the privilege.

by AnthonyR on Jun 26, 2009 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's a weak excuse, and you know it's exactly that.

Nothing more than an excuse.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jun 26, 2009 6:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

What, what is a weak excuse? Fact?

Everyone is entitled to be stupid, but Jerry abuses the privilege.

by AnthonyR on Jun 26, 2009 7:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Where did I say that?

All I said was we have not gotten the job done. And it is a trend that has been present the last two years in spectacular fashion, has it not?

Everyone is entitled to be stupid, but Jerry abuses the privilege.

by AnthonyR on Jun 26, 2009 7:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah

but you did say that we have “proven” to be beaten by inferior teams. I disagree with that quite a bit. Sure, we lost to some bad teams in September, but that isn’t really an indicator of anything other than being injured and being cold at the wrong time.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jun 26, 2009 7:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

We haven't been too banged up the past two years at the end of the season...

and the manner in which we ended the season was spectacularly bad in both cases. I don’t think you can just brush that off. “Being cold at the wrong time” isn’t an excuse. You CAN’T be cold at the end of September if you have designs on winning.

Hopefully, this year will be different. We’re already touched by an Angel by not being down 10 games.

Everyone is entitled to be stupid, but Jerry abuses the privilege.

by AnthonyR on Jun 27, 2009 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sure you can be...and you end up playing golf in October

like we have for the past two years. You can be cold in September if you have a 15 game lead.

Play as well as you want in April, but even a “7 game lead with 17 games to play” is not safe if you don’t play well in September. Off all people, we should know that.

Everyone is entitled to be stupid, but Jerry abuses the privilege.

by AnthonyR on Jun 27, 2009 11:08 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Obviously.

All I’m saying is that it’s not like the players we happened to choose are inordinately prone to be “unclutch” or whatever.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jun 27, 2009 11:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes

Curses are bullshit; “curse” should have been in quotes to denote that. My error.

However, the main point was that past trends only go so far. The ‘05 Cardinals were absolutely a favorite defeated by an inferior team. You could make the same argument for the ’04 Cardinals before they were swept by the Sox. And against superior teams in ’06, they got it done. It’s foolish to suggest that the ’09 Mets will fail in Sept/Oct because of a HR allowed by Aaron Heilman three years ago or a strikeout by David Wright with the winning run on 3rd base and no out in the ninth last year.

by Zwill on Jun 26, 2009 7:01 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sure

I’m not saying that it is destined to happen because it did the last two years. I’m saying that this group has shown a propensity toward not finishing the job and we could use all the help we can get to keep it from happening again.

You said above: “There’s no reason to assume that what has happened in the past will continue in the future”; maybe there is not reason to assume, but there certainly is damning evidence to proof it is possible.

Believe me, I’m the last one who wants it to happen.

Everyone is entitled to be stupid, but Jerry abuses the privilege.

by AnthonyR on Jun 26, 2009 7:08 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

If we make the postseason

The problems we have now should be alleviated by the return of our disabled players.

by TheBigStapler on Jun 26, 2009 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

you know the line from Moneyball?

Where Billy Beane says “my shit doesn’t work in the playoffs”? That seems important here.

The thing is: nobody’s shit works in the playoffs. There’s too much randomness, and too few games, for the better team to predictably win. When you’re making claims about what a team “needs” to make it past the Division series, remember the 2006 Cardinals team that shall not be named and ask your GM to make a trade for the one thing that can win a World Series: blind fucking luck.

by anonymous on Jun 26, 2009 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Omar

someone probably said this already, but he might very well be out of a job if the Mets don’t make the playoffs. In fact, he’s probably better off if they miss it by a lot – then he could maybe blame the injuries. If they’re anywhere close by the deadline, he might feel compelled to make a deal to save his ass.

David Eckstein: so gritty they would eat him in the south for breakfast with some butter and sprinkle cheese.

by wrightHOF on Jun 26, 2009 5:19 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Not a chance

His extension doesn’t even kick in til next year. He’s not going anywhere.

by Zwill on Jun 26, 2009 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Picture caption FTW

“Why doesn’t he like me…?”

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jun 26, 2009 6:49 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

The picture comments made me laugh.
But anyway I think inept roster construction has hurt this team more than injuries, injuries have only been a worry this season.
I agree unless its a trade for a long term impact player or a low risk high reward type I wouldn’t be mad about looking for trades.
That being said; Garret Atkins, Cliff Lee & Mike Napoli are all very interesting and have been spoke about in trade rumours.

by Ohpityme on Jun 27, 2009 7:23 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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