but, in seriousness: http://macksmets.blogspot.com/2009/04/mets-prospect-of-fernando-martinez.html

That’s a decent run-down of what’s been said about Martinez since the beginning. Basically it confirms everything I’ve heard about him, which is that he has unbelievable raw power that he hasn’t been able to harness in game situations yet, most likely b/c he’s always been playing in levels 2-3 years ahead of where most guys his age would be. The estimates seem to be that he’ll have 30-35 a year power, though I remember hearing or reading somewhere that if he fills out he could be a 40+ a year guy (can’t find a link to that, so you’d have to take my word). I’ve never seen anything, anywhere that suggests he will max out at 20 a year – in fact, that seems like an extremely conservative estimate.

That’s amazing. Like, really, really good. He’s gonna hit a lot of homeruns when he fills out.

Just a bit less I think. He had a 17% HR/FB this past year and flashed a 12% at the ripe age of 17 in the SAL. His ISO in Triple-A this year was like .250ish. That’s some huge power indication, and much, much more than Gomez ever flashed. Gomez had the raw physicality and size where people thought he was going to develop power, but he didn’t come up till he was 21, hadn’t really developed any notable power by then, and still hasn’t, meaning its unlikely its going to come.

Also, the thing that always got mentioned with F! when he was struggling in Double-A was the insane show he could put on during BP for a teenager.

I think he means L-Millz as of now. Not in the future.

I wasn’t factoring in cultural impact.

But maybe I’m just drinking the Minaya koolaid, haha. It’s just his minor league success at his age is almost unprecedented.

But I never take the point of comparison as pure prediction. Its just to learn about the process. Obviously, when Utley was in the FSL, he had lots of possible outcomes that were far from what he is now. But they’re still similar players with similar physical profiles and early career backgrounds. That makes them comparable in my mind, since we can look at both of them and see what they do differently and similarly and get a more precise sense of the raw data.

They were completely different players early in their careers. The only similarities I can see are position and athleticism. Very different otherwise. Aside from the obvious differences in early career power and ARL, Rios is also listed at 6’5" and 194 pounds right now. F! is listed at 6’2" and 190 pounds right now. That’s a significant physical dissimilarity. Rios is quite a bit taller, but he’s also the same weight, which makes him both lighter “pound-per-inch” and suggests that F! is eventually going to be smaller and heavier, which hopefully gets translated into strength (HR/FBs already indicate this is probably the case).

I just don’t see what Rios tells you about F!. With Utley, you can look at what he did and then have a reasonable guideline for evaluating Havens’ progress. Look at what Utley did in the next stages of his career:

The Phillies left Utley in the FSL for the long haul at age 22. At age 23, they skipped him straight to their Triple-A affiliate, Scranton-Wilkes Barre of the International League. This seems like a very plausible next step for Havens, both knowing the Mets and looking at how they’ve handled their other first round picks from 2008 and combining it with Havens’ missed time for injury. And even better, the Buffalo Bisons are also an International League team.

In that season, Utley hit .263 / .352 / .461. He improved on both his power and his OBP, but his relatively poor contact rate held and his walk rate still wasn’t stellar, as he had an 89/46 K/BB in 534 PAs. That’s a virtually identical strikeout rate, and marginally boosted walk rate.

Havens actual contact rate in the FSL is better than Utley’s was. He’s not hitting as many line drives, but he’s struck out in about 15% of his PAs, while Utley was closer to 17% in both his FSL and first IL stints. LD% is something that tends not to correlate to a great degree from level to level and year to year. So even if Havens’ average is low, I’ll still take the better BB% and raw power already. Havens has a 12.8 BB% and .188 ISO. Utley’s marks? 7.1% and .165. I’ll easily take those numbers over what I imagine was a LD% advantage for Utley.

However, there is one big thing with Utley that sets him apart from most other hitters. He gets hit by a TON of pitches. It makes his OBP deceptive, not in terms of value, but in terms of process. In fact, Utley’s BB% only increased from the aforementioned 7.1% to 8.6%, a notable increase, but something that’s magnified by the fact that he was hit by 12 pitches in the FSL and a whopping 20 pitches in the IL. This is neither a propensity Havens has shown or is one he should be expected to develop. While HBP’s count just as much as BBs in terms of getting on base, they don’t indicate the same level of process, in this case, plate discipline, so generally, if you have two guys with identical OBPs and AVGs, you take the guy with the high BB% rate over the high HBP%.

Anyway, crazy comp tangents aside, none of this is to say that Havens “should become” Utley. But what it does mean is that we we can look at Utley’s first year in Triple-A to generate some expectations and hopes for Havens if/when he gets there. What I think Utley’s first year in the IL tells is that we don’t have to freak out if Havens contact rate/batting average don’t spike a ton. Sure, .226 isn’t enough, but its rare that a 15% strikeout rate and 12% walk rate are going to generate a terribly low batting average. That’s an indication that a hitter has the ability to make contact fairly consistently, but is also patient enough to wait for good pitches to hit. Rather, I think the most important thing to “hope” for from Havens moving forward is that he maintains the walk and strikeout rates. The expectation is that his power is going to be impressive. Just like Utley’s 16 HRs in his 523 FSL PAs were very impressive, Havens 8 HRs in 218 FSL PAs are very impressive as well. Not many hitters can put up a 12.8% HR/FB in the FSL (Havens’ mark, I don’t have that data on Utley). But if he can also maintain his contact ability, plate discipline, and ability to get on base, he could be a very, very good player.

The other somewhat odd thing about Utley is that he didn’t spend a full season in the majors until he was 26. Obviously, he’s a superstar now, and there were always some indications of that potential, but it took a bit longer than you generally expect for “superstar” prospects. I think what this tells us is that for middle infielders with somewhat odd skillsets, especially large middle infielders, development can take patience. If Reese Havens isn’t a superstar or even an above average player by the time he’s 24, that doesn’t mean he can’t still become one.

You know whose development was also very similar here? Jeff Kent. He also had the same ARL minor league career (21 in NYPL, 22 in FSL, 23 in Double-A SOUL), had early career problems with mediocre batting averages due to strikeouts, had a solid walk rate and impressive raw power, and also didn’t really break out until his mid-20s and didn’t begin his HOF caliber pace until quite a few years later.

You’re taking Paulie’s age 24 and 25 seasons and comping them to Thole’s age 21 and 22 seasons. Big difference. A guy should have superior pitch recognition against guys he’s 3-4 years older then him.