Mets Community Prospect List: #5
by Mark Himmelstein on Jun 28, 2009 5:28 PM EDT
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With 77% of the vote, the winner of round four is: Wilmer Flores
Welcome to the Amazin' Avenue Mets Community Prospect List, where you get to vote on who the Mets best prospects are. Every poll will include eight candidates for the next spot on the list, as well as a separate group of testers. Testers will be rotated into polls with each update, replacing each poll's winner and any name that's not getting enough votes. For this poll, if someone is getting 0% of the votes I will consider swapping them out for a tester, assuming the votes seem to be getting a bit more spread around. If there's a particular tester you'd like to see added to the poll, or a name not on the testers list that you feel belongs there, voice your support in the comments section and it will be duly noted.
The list so far:
- Fernando Martinez
- Jenrry Meija
- Brad Holt
- Wilmer Flores
To replace Wilmer Flores, Brant Rustich has been added to the candidates. Since only three candidates received votes in the previous poll, this will be the only tester added in this round. In no particular order, here are the candidates for the Community's #5 Mets prospect:
- Kirk Nieuwenhuis
- Brant Rustich
- Ruben Tejada
- Reese Havens
- Jefry Marte
- Jonathon Niese
- Josh Thole
- Ike Davis
Testers - Dillon Gee, Scott Moviel, Robert Carson, Jeurys Familia, Kyle Allen, Eddie Kunz, Francisco Pena, Eric Beaulac, Michael Antonini
This FanPost was contributed by a member of the community and was not subject to any vetting or approval process. It does not necessarily reflect the opinions, reasoning skills, or attention to grammar and usage rules held by the editors of this site.
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Alright, 3 votes in, all for different people!
I like that.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
It's a tough call
Josh Thole is probably a much safer bet than Jon Niese to do well in the majors. But I went for Niese anyway.
Nothing can get by him; especially in a small room: Mike Francessa
weird
everyone here is so drinking the cool aid with Thole. He’s still a questionable catcher with great plate discipline but no power.
David Eckstein: so gritty they would eat him in the south for breakfast with some butter and sprinkle cheese.
And Niese is a 88 mph straightballer with a slow, loopy curve and a questionable third pitch
who’s a fairly strong risk of getting crushed in the majors ala Ian Kennedy. Albeit Niese is left-handed.
It doesn’t quite even out, but I’d still say that Niese has the lower downside than Thole, who should at least be a decent backup catcher.
Nothing can get by him; especially in a small room: Mike Francessa
by GenJackRipper on Jun 28, 2009 8:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Niese is absolutely not a "straightballer"
He might not throw mid-90s, but his FB is sneaky fast, as we’ve seen, even in MLB starts. Plus, he can sink and cut the ball, and has put up strong GB rates at all levels.
Most importantly, he has already shown the ability to miss bats at the MLB level.
Bottom line...who do we have at catcher other than Thole?
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
That's not necessarily true
It depends on the context. There are a million different lenses to evaluate prospects through. There’s “Top Overall,” as in their value relative to the rest of the community. There’s the issue of organizational utility, which squid92 is applying here. There’s potential trade value, which was popular in the offseason that brought us Johan. When doing an organizational evaluation like this, I tend to look mostly at “Top Overall” value, but I think you have to sprinkle in at least a bit of organizational utility.
What this means to me for a guy like Thole is that while I might rank, say, Ruben Tejada ahead of Thole on a Top 200 or 300 overall prospects list (or however deep you’d have to go to get to them), if we’re talking just about the Mets Top 20 or so, I think I’d probably put Thole ahead of Tejada. His advancement and position count more to the organization than Tejada’s impressive ARL defying plate discipline. But to the minor league community at large, I’d go vice versa on those.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Jun 29, 2009 4:33 AM EDT up reply actions
I think you're underestimating Thole's "tweener" potential
He still has to settle the score defensively. If he doesn’t do that, he’ll probably have a hard time being a long term backup, since defense is generally more highly valued than offense out of a backup catcher. Its not impossible, but I think there’s a lot more everyday starter potential than anything else. Even his platoon splits are favorable, he’s actually hit lefties better than righties in every year except 2006, and this year he’s just off the charts, .418 / .481 / .478. Granted that’s a lot of empty batting average, its still impressive, and its not the exception to his career trend, its more the norm. But if his bat doesn’t carry him to a starting job, he may have a hard time staying with a major league club, though at this point that seems like the less likely outcome.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Jun 29, 2009 2:45 AM EDT up reply actions
I was actually surprised at how good the Thole/Martin comp was
Martin flashed a bit more pop early on, but they both were drafted in the late rounds out of high school, started out as corner infielders, showed tremendous(ly similar) plate discipline at similar levels of advancement, both converted to catching late, and their Double-A success has been very similar, and Thole’s even been a bit better defensively it seems.
That said, I didn’t vote Thole. I’m still a huge Havens believer. And I’m not sure Martin is the most encouraging comp in terms of sustaining success. His power has been so inconsistent, in the minors and majors. If anything, I’d expect Thole to have a more consistent level of lesser power. But considering both players have similar “old player skills,” I’d say that might not be the worst thing for Thole.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Jun 28, 2009 8:09 PM EDT up reply actions
So we shouldn't be excited about a catcher in AA with great plate discipline who's one of the best hitters in his league?
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
Niese is already a competent MLB pitcher
so he gets the nod.
On another note: Poor Eddie Kunz, so lonely on that tester list til the end of time. Can we spare him the indignity and just eliminate his name from the discussion?
I personally like Kunz more than Beaulac. That's just my opinion, though.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
Yeah
Kunz is actually finally showing some signs of improvement this year maybe a little. 12/3 K/BB and just 9 hits in his last 17.1 innings.
I’m tempted to disagree and say I like Beaulac more, simply by virtue of the fact that Beaulac hasn’t been treading water for a few years the way Kunz has, but I can’t in good conscience do that.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Jun 28, 2009 8:42 PM EDT up reply actions
That's a very good sign.
My biggest problem with Kunz was the control. But if he improves that, he may have a spot in an MLB pen.
Still, his upside is Sean Green with less double plays.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
I think its Sean Green with more double plays
And fewer strikeouts. What he’s basically done this season to keep his ERA down is post a 65ish GB% and had a .156 BABIP on groundballs, which is ridiculously low, especially for that team (Niese’s is .264). But he’s pretty much a decent sinker and no command. The velo he gets on his sinker means you might expect some more “weak” groundballs than a guy like Niese, but that’s a BABIP separation that’s more about luck than skill or team defense.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Jun 29, 2009 2:37 AM EDT up reply actions
how much did Ike Davis pay you to say that?
King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president
Haha, you know I mean that with a grain of salt
And wouldn’t have said anything like it two weeks ago. But a two week stretch of improved command might kinda hint at some vaguely sustainable improvement. We still have to see. He’s been trading water for so long, it’d be about freakin time, and he’ll still probably never get lefties out.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Jun 29, 2009 12:34 AM EDT up reply actions
Went with Havens
I know Niese is closer, Tejada is a better defender and younger for his level, Davis has really come on strong raking the rigties (he seems to be having a hard time living down how awful he was last year), and Thole is a line drive and oba machine and if he can stay at catcher…but i think Havens is the one that has the best chance to be a star at his eventual position, which I take to be 2b.
I agree
that’s why I went with Havens too. I’ve been excited about him since the draft, and I haven’t seen anything from him that’s really deterred my excitement.
The injuries
may be something to watch in the future.
by TheBigStapler on Jun 29, 2009 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions
true that
But for now I am going on upside.
Back to Ike Davis, here is his FSL/Double-A combined line: .298/.391/.492. Yonder Alonso, same gae, and more highly thought of, and his FSL/AA line: .287/.360/.470.
Ike hasn’t hit lefties. Neither has Alonso. Alonso has played more at AA (he must be hurt now, hasn’t played in a bit), his FSL line was better than Ike’s (.397 to .386 wOBA) and he is still a better prospect (he had a great k/bb rate in college). Ike also has a high babip this year.
But it does show you Ike Davis has come a long way since last year.
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