Mets Community Prospect List: #6
With 58% of the vote, the winner of round five is: Jonathon Niese
Welcome to the Amazin' Avenue Mets Community Prospect List, where you get to vote on who the Mets best prospects are. Every poll will include eight candidates for the next spot on the list, as well as a separate group of testers. Testers will be rotated into polls with each update, replacing each poll's winner and any name that's not getting enough votes. For this poll, if someone is getting 0% of the votes I will consider swapping them out for a tester, assuming the votes seem to be getting a bit more spread around. If there's a particular tester you'd like to see added to the poll, or a name not on the testers list that you feel belongs there, voice your support in the comments section and it will be duly noted.
The list so far:
- Fernando Martinez
- Jenrry Meija
- Brad Holt
- Wilmer Flores
- Jonathon Niese
To replace Jon Niese, Dillon Gee has been added to the candidates. Since only five candidates received votes in the previous poll, this will be the only tester added in this round. In no particular order, here are the candidates for the Community's #6 Mets prospect:
- Kirk Nieuwenhuis
- Brant Rustich
- Ruben Tejada
- Reese Havens
- Jefry Marte
- Dillon Gee
- Josh Thole
- Ike Davis
Testers - Scott Moviel, Robert Carson, Jeurys Familia, Kyle Allen, Eddie Kunz, Francisco Pena, Eric Beaulac, Michael Antonini, Steven Matz
0 recs |
68 comments
Comments
Who do you guys wanna see as the next tester/testers added?
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on Jun 29, 2009 2:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, it's getting hard for me to think of new testers.
I’m gonna go with Carson, though.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Jun 29, 2009 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I heard that kid dominated in Brooklyn in his first start.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Jun 29, 2009 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hmm
Kunz, Dylan Owen, Sean Ratliff, Moviel, Kyle Allen, perhaps Beaulac. Maybe Familia.
by jasondg on Jun 29, 2009 2:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Dylan Owen has basically reached his ceiling, though.
He’s stunk up the joint pretty much in AA.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Jun 29, 2009 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah. that's right
I was just tossing out some names. I never liked Owen much — while there’s a place for those command/low ceiling guys, he’s really sucked.
by jasondg on Jun 29, 2009 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think most people would put Thole and Havens in some order at 6 and 7,
The real question is who’s next?
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Jun 29, 2009 2:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I liked Reese here
His power early in the season has been a welcome revelation. He is already known as a plus defender with great contact ability and advanced plate discipline.
Thole’s only skill at this point is his ability to hit for average, albeit at a higher level.
With his injuries, Havens has been left behind the other 2008 first-rounders but I suspect he will be promoted during his next prolonged hot streak to AA sometime not long after the all-star break.
by TheBigStapler on Jun 29, 2009 2:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I voted Havens too
But the plus defender thing is still a work in progress. He’s always gotten good grades in terms of his fielding “instincts,” but his below average speed and range have exposed him as a poor SS. Second Base seems like the most reasonable option, but we’ll have to see how much he can up his game when he moves over there.
Also, in Thole’s defense, he walks quite a bit and makes lots and lots of contact, both of which make the average and OBP seem more sustainable as he moves through the upper levels.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on Jun 29, 2009 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Okay, how about
Adequate defender in the middle infield with plus arm?
by TheBigStapler on Jun 29, 2009 3:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
LOL
Nicely done. Yeah he does have a good arm, but he’s been pretty brutal defensively this year. The TotalZone numbers for this year aren’t up yet, but the 15 errors in 51 games is a problem, though a lot of those did come in the first two months and he seems to have slowed down his error pace a bit lately.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on Jun 29, 2009 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ok, who's the one person who's voted for Ike Davis every round?
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Jun 29, 2009 3:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Sam's gonna kill me for this
I’ll probably get another banhammer warning. But I could vaguely kinda see a legit case for Davis in this spot. He did hit his way out of the FSL and has been pretty solid in his first week or so in Bingo. I still probably won’t vote for him for at least a few more spots, but its not completely absurd anymore at this point.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on Jun 29, 2009 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
To clarify
Including Havens, who I voted for here, there are at least three candidates I’m going to vote for ahead of Davis and maybe even as many as five.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on Jun 29, 2009 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
people really hate ike
i like ike. you like ike. everybody likes ike.
Think of it this way: if Ike Davis had held out and not signed until very late last year, so late that he didn’t play at all, and we only had this year’s worth of stats…would you be dismissing him so much? People don’t like him because of his lack of power – last year. But he proved he could hit for power by doing very well in the FSL and in his tiny sample size of like 25 PA’s at Bing has not looked overmatched by any means.
Yes Havens/Thole play a better position blah blah…but if you can’t enough to get to the majors, it doesn’t matter. And out of those three, Davis (to me) seems to have the most complete package.
David Eckstein: so gritty they would eat him in the south for breakfast with some butter and sprinkle cheese.
by wrightHOF on Jun 29, 2009 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My dislike of Davis has nothing to do with last year.
I’m quite excited about his stats so far.
King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president
by Sam Page on Jun 29, 2009 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
heh
so what does it have to do with?
David Eckstein: so gritty they would eat him in the south for breakfast with some butter and sprinkle cheese.
by wrightHOF on Jun 29, 2009 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He doesn't like his swing.
But I personally love Omir Santos’.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Jun 29, 2009 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
But it doesn’t seem any likelier to me at this point that Davis reaches the majors than Havens or Thole, so why is that point relevant? Sure, positional relativity isn’t everything, but you do have to hold first baseman to a higher standards than shortstops. There are many more positions Havens could reach the majors in besides shortstop. If Davis isn’t a first baseman, maybe he’s a left fielder, but after that, its on to LHP. Havens might not hit enough to be a first baseman, but he won’t have to to reach the majors.
Thole probably wouldn’t be able to make it at any position aside from Catcher, but so long as he stays there, I would say his bat is probably more likely to play relative to position than Davis’s is right now. And that’s meant more as praise for Thole than it is a knock on Davis.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on Jun 29, 2009 6:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
To be fair
Davis has a good arm. People were suggesting he could pitch if he couldn’t adjust to professional hitting, so I think RF is certainly a possiblity.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Jun 29, 2009 6:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I watched him in college for 3 years and can't believe he went field instead of pitch.
He was a much better pitcher in college and looked like a big leaguer. Never thought that about his bat/glove.
Everyone is entitled to be stupid, but Jerry abuses the privilege.
by AnthonyR on Jun 29, 2009 10:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hitters are always the safer bet
I watched Reese Havens in college, so now we just need to find a Brad Holt stalker.
King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president
by Sam Page on Jun 30, 2009 12:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll fess up
I voted for Davis this round (not the other 5). I might be off base but I see him having serious realistic upside. Plus power does it for me.
by njk237 on Jun 29, 2009 4:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
.298/.391/.492
That’s Ike’s FSL and AA slash line combined. Yonder Alonso, same age, .287/.360/.470. Cheating because Yonder had more AA at bats. A reasonable case can be made for Ike. I voted Havens again.
by wobatus on Jun 29, 2009 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow Eric's really passing around the kool-aid these days.
King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president
by Sam Page on Jun 29, 2009 4:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Voted Havens
As cool as Josh Thole is to us here, he just isn’t as good of a prospect in terms of ceiling as Reese Havens. I just can’t back Thole > Havens here.
by BlackOps on Jun 29, 2009 5:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
RE: Testers
This is where the shallowness of the Mets’ system shines through. Kunz and Pena shouldn’t even sniff the periphery of this list, they’re so bad. Any list with those two might as well have Nathan Vineyard on it as well.
by All Shook Down on Jun 29, 2009 5:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Ha
I agree, but I’m throwing out names on the testers list more on what I assume are familiar as opposed to who I think belongs. I’d have a guy like Zach Lutz or even probably Aderlin Rodriguez ahead of a lot of those testers. I actually think the Mets system is in the process of taking that next step, of going from a solid top end and no depth, to a point where at the end of the season, the top end is going to look somewhat similar, but there will be more length in the back. But that’s going to be with guys that are currently in the Savannah pitching staff and some of the Mets draft picks from the first 10 rounds and maybe an IFA like Aderlin.
It’ll also be a healthier mix of polish and upside. Instead of the upper levels being guys like Niese and Thole and Gee, guys who look like good bets to be solid players, but who have limited ceilings, you’ll have guys up there like Holt, Mejia, Havens, guys who do have some star potential too.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on Jun 29, 2009 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's practically a pedophile
at the age he is in the league he is
King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president
by Sam Page on Jun 29, 2009 7:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I went Havens
if you look at luck neutralized stats, Havens has a .893 OPS, while Thole is only at .757.
Havens has great Iso, IsoD and K/BB ratios, which are the numbers I primarily look at.
by T Pac on Jun 29, 2009 5:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
Its easy to misinterpret both of their performances in different ways. But even if you break it down to level, for hitters, there’s not a huge difference between the FSL and the EL. The pitchers are obviously more advanced in the EL, but they can’t get away with as much contact without getting burned.
I still love me some catcher who understands the strike zone though. Havens definitely edges Thole, especially in the ISO differences relative to league, but Thole’s K/BB is even better, 25/31. And that’s pretty much right in line with his established career rate and what he’s done at every level he’s had an extended stay at. Havens is walking a bit more, but he’s also striking out quite a bit more too.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on Jun 29, 2009 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m worried about how Thole’s lack of power will translate against MLB pitchers (who obviously have much better control) And while he does have a lot of doubles, they aren’t they kind that eventually turns into homers — Thole really crowds the plate and has a very short stroke.
Honestly, Thole is only borderline top 10 for me — it was between Havens, Davis and Rustich for me.
by T Pac on Jun 29, 2009 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah that's definitely true
But I don’t think that’s necessarily something that I’d label a concern right now, but something to watch for as he makes progress. His strike zone discipline and ability to make contact have been so good, even if pitchers with better control pound him with strikes due to lack of a fear of his power, he could still be quite productive.
I don’t think there’s any way Rustich could be this high. Ahead of Thole….eh, maybe, but I just don’t think there’s enough we can know about Rustich yet. He could move quickly if he could just stay on the field, but he keeps getting tied up in these little setbacks and the organizations desire to move him as cautiously as possible. Even his upside is tough to judge at this point
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on Jun 29, 2009 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
as i'm sure you are aware of by now
I think Holt and Rustich are pretty similar.
Rustich’s tRA’s in A+ are pretty incredible.
by T Pac on Jun 29, 2009 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But their amateur pedigrees
And recent progress is completely different. They have some raw similarities in that they’re both big right handed power pitchers who dominated the FSL, but Holt’s two years younger and has been making nothing but fast, efficient progress over the last two years. Rustich has been such a slow moving progression, and that matches up with his amateur track record too.
Rustich’s tRA’s are awesome though, I have him somewhere right around 10, but I’m going to have a tough time moving him higher than that until he actually starts a few games and manages to go deep without a setback OR has some upper level relief success.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on Jun 29, 2009 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good point.
I can see a case for either of them, though. I admit I voted Thole, just because I don’t want to see another Omir Santos at bat. Ever. Especially pinch hitting for the other catcher.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Jun 29, 2009 6:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
haha
Well, in some circles, stroke length is more important than statistical numbers when evaluating players.
by T Pac on Jun 29, 2009 5:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
also
Tobi Stoner! make him a tester.
seriously, though, who’s left? Duda? Valdespin? getting tough out there.
David Eckstein: so gritty they would eat him in the south for breakfast with some butter and sprinkle cheese.
by wrightHOF on Jun 29, 2009 6:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Lutz!!
King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president
by Sam Page on Jun 29, 2009 6:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We should really put our resident Honkballer on the testers list.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Jun 29, 2009 6:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Man
Following this is more exciting than the game that’s on right now
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on Jun 29, 2009 7:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
It's certainly closer
King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president
by Sam Page on Jun 29, 2009 10:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is where Mets fans start whipping out the good drugs
JEURYS FAMILIA PLEASE
He’s much better than the middle relievers and 4th outfielders being put up there.
by ScoutingTheSally on Jun 29, 2009 10:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
My guess is Carson and Familia are the next two testers added.
And more likely then not, their stock will rise as the season winds down and they pitch in A+
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Jun 30, 2009 12:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Interesting
Many of the same people who voted Holt over Niese appear to be voting Thole over Havens.
by T Pac on Jun 30, 2009 3:21 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
so yes
i am accusing of you guys of being jerry manuels
by T Pac on Jun 30, 2009 3:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would think that Manuel would prefer
an athletic Havens over a non-defensive hitting catcher, so I don’t get the implication. Also, I think the Holt/Niese choice came down to ceiling as solid as I believe Niese to be, I just don’t see from his numbers ace potential, but with Holt I do. As for Thole/Havens, I ♥ Thole.
by Sokojoe on Jun 30, 2009 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah this seems to be an odd analogy to me
If you’re going to compare pitchers to hitters like this, I’d think Havens = Holt and Thole = Niese. Havens is the less advanced, higher ceiling, first round pick, and former college player, while Thole is the more polished, lower upside, drafted to little fanfare, high school draftee.
I did vote for Havens here though.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on Jun 30, 2009 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that's what i meant
By Jerry Manuels, I meant not having consistent logic.
(Of course, I voted for the safer, lower-ceiling Niese, but now the higher-ceiling Havens, but that’s mostly because my opinion of Thole is quite low, relatively speaking)
by T Pac on Jun 30, 2009 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why?
Thole is a legit prospect. He can hit and plays a position that rarely has guys who can hit. He may not have the home run power but he has a ton of doubles (which can turn into homers), excellent plate discipline (31 walks to 25 strikes outs) and doesn’t turn 23 until October. I still would like to see a recent scouting report on his defense because anytime you can have a catcher who can call a good game, be decent behind the plate and hit, you got something special.. Regarding the power, even a guy like Joe Mauer (who Thole actually has similar numbers to in high A and AA, albeit at 2 years older) never really hit home runs until this year at age 26.
This was the toughest vote for me and I ultimately voted Thole, but Havens is an excellent prospect and should absolutely win the next vote, if he doesn’t win this one.
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
by Evan_S on Jun 30, 2009 7:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Power potential
Mauer had it, Thole does not.
I would be shocked if Thole ever hit double-digit homers in a season.
by T Pac on Jun 30, 2009 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not really.
It’s either Thole or Havens here. You can absolutely make a case for Thole. He plays catcher (a premium position where we have no player), has continually put up offensive numbers, has stayed healthy (always important for a catcher), has improved his defense, and is at a higher level than Havens. It’s certainly a matter of personal preference, but it’s not like it’s wrong or anything…
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Jun 30, 2009 8:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Matz shouldn't get to be a part of the vote
Since he hasn’t signed yet and, if he does soon, we will have already started the first round of voting.
by TheBigStapler on Jun 30, 2009 9:23 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Wow
One vote difference. Although I don’t think anyone is shocked that it’s thisclose.
by meigs1414 on Jun 30, 2009 10:13 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Off-topic!
Some of you guys live in DC right? I’m coming to live there for three months in Autumn, and I’m looking at living in Adams Morgan – is that a good place to be? I’ll be at the Library of Congress so it seems like a decent commute.
Cheers
by deadspy3 on Jun 30, 2009 11:06 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Take a look at the Crystal City area too
Right over the river in VA.
by James Kannengieser on Jun 30, 2009 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm a few days late to reply
but maybe you’ll see it – a friend of mine lives in Adams Mo, he likes it. His apartment is pretty nice, although it’s cramped (they have 3 people living in what should be a 2-person place). There are a TON of bars in that area – when I first moved down here that was the only place I knew of so we went out there pretty much every weekend. It’s only 3 stops from Metro Center and 4 from Gallery Place (which are the two main transfer points on the Red Line), so it’s very metro accessible to anywhere in the city. For the Library of Congress you’d have to transfer at Metro Center, but you’d only be like 7 stops away.
I live in the MD suburbs (just moved from Bethesda to Silver Spring), which I actually love, but I’ve often considered moving into the city and Adams Morgan would be one of the first areas I’d look.
by cjmulrain on Jul 3, 2009 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs




















