UZR Hates The Mets Outfield
The Mets have the 2nd worst Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) in baseball, at -20.1 runs. Only the embarrassing Nationals measure out worse. This number jumps off the page because the Omar Minaya Mets have been strong defensively. They were worth +27.1, +6.8, and +9.8 defensive runs in 2008, 2007, and 2006, respectively. Team ERA outperformed team FIP in each of these seasons, consistent with a team that plays above average defense. We've seen that UZR correlates decently with FIP-ERA. Based on how poorly UZR rates Mets defense this year, one would expect team ERA to underperform team FIP. This is not the case, as ERA is once again better than FIP by 0.11. Compare to the Nationals, whose ERA is worse than their FIP by 0.52. It's always prudent to seek another opinion on defense statistics, so I looked at plus/minus (+/-) and Revised Zone Rating (RZR) to maybe figure out what the heck is going on here.
John Dewan's +/- is a play-by-play stat, calculated similarly to UZR. It is available, with subscription, at BillJamesOnline.net. Like UZR, it aims to measure how many runs above or below average a player is worth defensively at their position. Pitcher and catcher defense is not measured. From 2006-2008, both systems agreed that the Mets were above average in the field. This year, +/- has the Mets at +5, a 25 run (or 2.5 win) difference from UZR. Here is the breakdown between infield and outfield:
| UZR | +/- | |
|---|---|---|
| Infield | -12.3 | -6 |
| Outfield | -7.8 | +11 |
| Total | -20.1 | +5 |
Both agree that infield defense has been poor, but the gap in outfield defense is ~19 runs. Let's get a third opinion.
RZR is generally not held in as high a regard as UZR or +/-, but is nonetheless useful. It doesn't measure defensive prowess on a runs basis and a detailed explanation can be found here. A higher number is preferable with RZR. Here is the RZR breakdown for Mets infield and outfield, with MLB average RZR for infield, outfield, and overall listed as well:
| RZR | MLB Average RZR | |
|---|---|---|
| Infield | .779 | .782 |
| Outfield | .938 | .913 |
| Overall | .843 | .832 |
RZR generally agrees with +/- here, measuring the Mets infield slightly below average, the outfield above average, and defense overall above average. The disparity between UZR and RZR regarding outfielders once again stands out. R.J. Anderson noted at Fangraphs that UZR is still using Shea Stadium park factors for its calculations. He proposed that this might be having an effect on Carlos Beltran's poor UZR this season, but ultimately decided that such a small sample isn't enough to make any conclusions. Still, the 4 players who have played the most outfield innings for the Mets this season all rate worse per UZR than +/-. It would be useful if a home/away UZR breakdown was available at Fangraphs, but it isn't (yet). Also useful would be an analysis of these stats for all team's outfields to provide some context, but teamwide +/- data is not readily available.
Defense stats are inexact but always improving. I agree with R.J. that less than half a season's data is not much to go on either. However, it might be wise to take Mets OF UZR with an even larger grain of salt than usual, atleast until Citi Field park factors are used in its calculation.
(Note: All stats through Sunday's games)
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Comments
Speaking of the Mets outfield
Taking a look at Alex Rios in Toronto would not be a bad idea whatsoever. He had wOBA’s of .365, .368, and .350 from 06-08, and this year has struggled at .332.
However, his defense, which was awesome last year, has fallen this year.
Jerry Manuel...stop being....stupid...
by MetsGeek on Jun 30, 2009 10:05 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Every year Alex Rios
is supposed to breakout. But he might be what he is, a good but flawed player. I think the Blue Jays still see him as a potential superstar so cost would follow.
by Sokojoe on Jun 30, 2009 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
as per Cerrone
The Jays are looking to give him away
King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president
by Sam Page on Jun 30, 2009 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If that's true great but
even though JP Riccardi is kind of a hack of GM, I’m going to call shenanigans. The article lumps Wells and Rios together like they’re comparable probably because they both outfielders, have big contracts that haven’t really kicked in yet and have been a bit disappointing. Nevertheless, this is a huge insult to Rios and I think Riccardi knows that.
Wells WAR…Rios WAR
05…3.1…0.8
06…5.8…3.3
07…0.8…4.6
08…1.2…5.5
09..-1.3…0.9
Rios is 28 while Wells is 30. Rios will make a minimum of $59.7 over the next 5 seasons. Wells will make $98.5 over the next five years. Not to go Joe Benigo but of course the Jays want to unload Wells, that’s a franchise crushing contract. As for Rios, it looks pretty close to fair market value and a 28 year old with loads of potential signed to a fair contract is a very valuable trade commodity.
by Sokojoe on Jun 30, 2009 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The idea is
They want whatever money they can get to lock down Halladay, but of course, I’m sure they’d much prefer to move Wells, and then as a secondary option, would consider moving Rios if they got a little something back in return. But if it was less than most fair market contracts for decent outfielders net, I don’t think they’d be too upset, since they really, really wanna keep Halladay. Plus, they have to make some room for Travis Snider eventually. Yeah, he’s having a rough year. He’s still a helluva prospect. He’s only 21 and doesn’t even have a full season’s worth of PAs in the upper levels yet. I wouldn’t be surprised if at the break, the Jays realized no one was taking Wells, and decided to shop Rios for cheapish.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on Jun 30, 2009 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
one thing that article reminded me of
Kevin Millar is a giant asshole
by JoshNY on Jun 30, 2009 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm so glad we gave Endy Chavez away
The Putz trade was the ultimate in pointless deals made to look like the Mets were going to Do Something about the bullpen. This is what I fear is going to happen in a month: we’re going to have another Do Something trade that won’t really help the team at all.
Somehow, a chain of events unfolded that put Steve Phillips in a professional broadcast booth Sunday night so he could rip Carlos Beltran. Try to explain that in any other terms.
by Greenpoint Ian on Jun 30, 2009 10:53 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I like the title of this post
Apparently UZR and I have a lot in common.
by Zwill on Jun 30, 2009 11:51 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Even if the outfield defense is poor
Our pitchers could still be outperforming the FIP because of Citi Field
by yellomellojello on Jun 30, 2009 3:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
+1
The Mets are 28th in baseball in Park Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, and 15th in the NL, ahead of only the Nationals. Defensive Efficiency is essentially team defensive BABIP.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on Jun 30, 2009 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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