Amazin' Avenue: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Sports blogs for fans, by fans.
New Blog: RSL Soapbox for Real Salt Lake Fans!

Go Ahead, Criticize The One Thing He's Good At

Leave it to John Harper to come to the same conclusion as the rest of us, after exhausting the most backward logic, based on a wealth of misinformation. After the usual trumping up of Jerry Manuel's "request" for a trade, we begin:

But the problem is the Mets have so few desirable prospects at the upper levels of their farm system that Minaya is dealing from a position of weakness in trying to make any type of trade. 

This statement would have been somewhat true before the promotion of Brad Holt, Jenrry Mejia, and Ike Davis.  I'd say the Mets now have quite a few desirable prospects in the upper levels. In fact, here's a list of notable prospects in Buffalo and Binghamton: Jon Niese, Tobi Stoner, Michael Antonini, Eddie Kunz, Fernando Martinez, Brad Holt, Jenrry Mejia, Ike Davis, Shawn Bowman, Josh Thole, Ruben Tejada, Dylan Owen, and sometimes Jonathan Malo. Wow, actually that's quite a few, seven of which should crack some top prospects lists. But go on...

Of course, he has only himself to blame for that, as the lack of prospects developed during Minaya's five-year regime with the Mets is a glaring failure. Never mind top prospects, the simple lack of major-league ready talent is haunting the big club at the moment as the Mets scramble to survive all their injuries. 

Is the insinuation here that Omar should have some major league ready prospect ready to fill in everytime someone gets injured? No team can realistically do that, which is why bench player depth exists (hint, hint, the really glaring failure of the Minaya regime). Oh, what's this? Here comes the major-league ready talent graduated during Minaya's tenure list: Lastings Milledge, Daniel Murphy, John Maine, Nick Evans, Jon Niese, Fernando Martinez, Mike Pelfrey, and Bobby Parnell. Not bad for a win-now team with a huge payroll.

Consider that the Mets' top two minor league teams are a combined 39 games under .500 - Triple-A Buffalo is 26-47, Double-A Binghamton is 28-46 - and it gives you an idea of how bleak the situation is.

Listen, I know expectations were high for Mike Lamb as the future face of the franchise, but there were signs. He had been cut from the Twins last year after batting .200. He was 33. We should have seen it coming. That, coupled with Willy Mo busting,...it's been a tough year for Mets fans.

Star-divide

Furthermore, one scout who observed Buffalo in mid-June recently said that Fernando Martinez was the only position player who could be considered a major-league prospect. The scout called the Mets' system "impotent" and openly wondered whether Minaya has had any kind of real plan in place other than acquiring high-priced free-agents.

3673421763_2388aced9f_o_medium

Either Harper is quoting his scout friend, Cpt. Obvious, out of context, or they both have serious logic problems.

Ouch.

Col_hdr_harper_medium

To be fair, the Mets did surrender a total of 11 players in the trades for Johan Santana and J.J. Putz the last two years, and at the time of the Putz deal last winter, Minaya made a point of telling reporters that his farm system deserved more respect.

alley...

To be just as fair, however, major leaguers Aaron Heilman and Endy Chavez were the key cogs in the Putz trade, and the Mets got Santana because the Twins were backed into a corner, unable to get the Yankees or Red Sox to package their top minor-league talent.

OOP!! Or perhaps it reflects well on Minaya's ability developing the farm and as a General Manager that he didn't trade his best young players for Santana? No, no, no, the Twins had to trade him because the Red Sox wouldn't offer Ellsbury and Buchholz.

"Sir, the Yankees won't trade Chamberlain, Hughes, and Kennedy all at once."

"Who's that team that keeps offering four prospects for Mike Lamb? Y'know, the really impotent one?"

"The Mets?"

"Yea, see if they'll take Santana on too."

Did you ever think the Twins, arguably the greatest scouting team in the majors, might have liked Gomez and Guerra, both of whom were ranked as top prospects?

In addition, it's worth noting that outfielder Carlos Gomez, the centerpiece of the Santana trade, was in the Mets' system before Minaya became GM, and the Twins have been disappointed in the three minor-league pitchers, Kevin Mulvey, Deolis Guerra, and Philip Humber (who was released this spring), in the deal.

It's like...pitching prospects have a high rate or attrition...or something crazy like that! I'm sure the Twins would have been much happier getting the mythical Ian Kennedy/Phil Hughes package Harper alludes to. Those two have never disappointed.

P.S. Omar Minaya left his position with the Mets, where he was heavily involved in international scouting, in 2002. Carlos Gomez signed with the Mets as an international free agent in 2002. If you asked Omar Minaya what he thought about Carlos Gomez before he became the Mets' GM, he'd probably have an answer.

On the other hand, under Minaya the Mets have developed pitchers Mike Pelfrey and Bobby Parnell, as well as infielder Daniel Murphy. And signing free agents has cost them a couple of top draft picks in recent years.

but you already made me do the list!

But the real sticking point is the apparent failure to cash in on the Pedro Martinez signing five years ago. At the time Minaya essentially said he was willing to overpay for Pedro, in the form of $52 million over four years, because of the dividends it would provide, because every kid in the Dominican Republic would want to sign with the Mets.

Since then, however, the only such signings of significance appear to be Fernando Martinez, 19-year-old shortstop Ruben Tejada and 17-year-old shortstop Wilmer Flores. That's not exactly a pipeline of talent.

Those three players certainly don't suggest a pipeline of Dominican talent, mostly because only one of them is Dominican in the first place. Here are some Mets' prospects that are actually from the country he's  talking about: Fernando Martinez, Jenrry Mejia, Francisco Pena,  Cesar Puello, Greg Veloz, Jeury Familia, Elvin Ramirez, and Juan Lagares. Notice that list does not account for many of the most recent signings and the Mets Dominican Baseball Academy in Boca Chica, DR.

-snip-
"By now I thought their system would be loaded with good (Latin) players," one major league scouting director said recently. "But for whatever reason, it hasn't happened."

Is it so bad the Mets don't throw three million dollars at every international prospect on the market? Yes, I wish they would go after more talents like Ynoa, but they seem to get the best bang for the buck of any MLB team. Which makes me wonder, has Harper ever heard of Jenrry Mejia? Signed for a relatively small bonus from the Dominican Republic...throws a 95 mph sinking fastball...is dominating AA as a teenager...no? Nevermind.

The same baseball people say the Mets do have attractive prospects at the lower levels of their minor-league system, Flores especially, and righthander Brad Holt, their first-round supplemental pick a year ago who was recently promoted to Double-A.

Brad Holt, a very attractive lower-level prospect, in the Mets upper-levels...

Either one would get the attention of a team looking to make a trade, but considering how few such prospects the Mets have, it hardly seems worth it to include them in quick-fix deals for someone like Adam Dunn, Nick Johnson or Aubrey Huff - or even Mark DeRosa, who was traded from the Indians to the Cardinals on Saturday.

Wow, how'd we get here? Yes, the Mets should not trade top prospects for a player that will only help minimally, but not because the farm system is barren. They shouldn't make those trades period. They're not going to be worth their prices, and the Mets have much bigger problems than what a DeRosa-type or Adam "0 WAR" Dunn is going to solve.

Listen, I blame Minaya for alot, but not for the work he's done internationally or with the farm system. The Mets have their best farm in 10 years and are in a great position to develop a fantastic young team. There was nothing before Minaya, except what he had left behind from his scouting days and Steve Philips' favorite Jose Cruz Jr. trade bait, David Wright.

Which reminds me, do you remember why the Mets are so desperate for a trade, Mr. Harper? They lost a shortstop, who you affectionately called a headcase, who Minaya signed for nothing out of the Dominican Republic. Does that count as major-league ready talent?

0 recs  |  Comment 73 comments |

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

lol funny stuff sam

I don’t know how the Yankees were able to acquire Eric Hinske for two nothing prospects. That’s somebody who can play 1st, 3rd, and the corner outfield spots. He should be a Met easily.

Plus, the Pirates gave the Yankees $400 grand in the deal.

ugh.

Jerry Manuel...stop being....stupid...

by MetsGeek on Jun 30, 2009 12:09 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

They're two A-ball players with some good stats

He’s really regressed though from last year. His projected stats are way down, and his WAR is almost one tenth of last year. I don’t think Hinske would have done much for us, he plays a lot of positions, but not well.

Trying to believe is my full-time occupation.

by Preach19 on Jun 30, 2009 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oh yeah, I doubt they're anything special

The stats are decent for two middling A-ball players. It’s similar to the Angel Pagan trade.

Trying to believe is my full-time occupation.

by Preach19 on Jun 30, 2009 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hinske is not tremendously awesome

and given that he’s got all of one HR this year, isn’t the solution to the Mets’ power woes. His SLG is .368, which is basically the same as Murphy and Tatis. The .373 OBP is nice but given the use of A. Reyes and Murphy at the top of the lineup, it’s pretty clear Jerry wouldn’t know how to use a guy with high OBP anyway. And his LD% is an unimpressive 13% (just barely better than what we were all criticizing F! about last night), suggesting that his average (still only .255) and OBP are, at least in part, products of an unsustainable (at that LD%) .333 BABIP.

So while I might possibly agree that the Mets should be making low-cost pickups, I won’t be crying myself to sleep over the fact that Hinske wasn’t one of them, and I’ll continue to feel that way even after he hits 15 HR for the Yankees over the rest of the season with none of them traveling further than 330 feet.

by JoshNY on Jun 30, 2009 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

How much research did John Harper do before writing this?

What a tool. At least try to make your writing correct.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jun 30, 2009 12:44 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

And does he even know who Jenrry Mejia?

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jun 30, 2009 12:48 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

is.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jun 30, 2009 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wow...

That was a great thread…please tell me somone actually emailed this to John Harper.

by Pedrito on Jun 30, 2009 12:58 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I left a link

in the comments section of his story , begging him to read this. I left some very rude words (in a very polite way), though for some reason, I doubt DN writers give much of a fuck about stupid things like accuracy and whatnot. I mean, just the fact that he didn’t even bother to verify what countries these guys are from while citing them as examples is a joke. I would LOVE for him to read this. I would love it more if he were man enough to post something here.

"It's like the old phrase goes.....The balls in your court now Mr.Church, so you take that ball, you dribble it up the court and....................................... get a layup"
- Keith Hernandez

by nrmax88 on Jun 30, 2009 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Fuck the heck

Seriously, the only thing saving Minaya is his international signings and a couple of well scouted draft picks. For as much as I want Omar fired, I would like him to stay with the Mets and help with scouting, you know, assuming he has much to do with the aforementioned acitivies.

by Sokojoe on Jun 30, 2009 1:04 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Can't tell if you're

just ripping Harper or defending Minaya. Completely agree that Harper’s clearly misguided on their prospects, but you can’t say Omar’s done a good job either. Far from it. Beyond the bad injury luck that’s hit them, you cannot ignore these facts:

For 3 seasons now he’s counted on the strategy of overpaying for aging vets past their prime to get the Mets to the playoffs, and he gets burned every year. Look at the list of names: (Alou, Pedro, El Duque, Valentin, Easley, Castillo, Floyd, Wagner, Tatis, etc.) This year, you could definitely add Delgado to that list, and to a degree Putz, since he did have arm problems that everyone knew about. And we traded away Carp, a guy we could be playing at 1st right now and perhaps in the future (still too soon to tell), but he just turned 23 and seems to be coming along better than Murphy or Evans, and he gets on base a lot better than them.

And if the farm is so improved, why so many atrocious fill-in starters in so many crucial games the last few years: the Vargas’s, Brian Lawrence (6 starts in ’07!), Dave Williams, Chan Ho, Armas, Humber, etc.)

Now, the Cards were able to get DeRosa for 1 decent young pitcher. You clearly don’t like DeRosa much. You can claim he would not make a difference in the Mets lineup in terms of wins, but that’s pure speculation by you. I see him as exactly the type of guy they needed. He could have played short (instead of struggling Cora, A. heinous, even with less D, it’s a big upgrade); He also could have played 1B/OF instead of Tatis/Murphy (another upgrade); 2b on occasion instead of Castillo (another upgrade). You say he makes no difference, but I see upgrade, upgrade, upgrade right there.

And I’m tired of seeing the anti-trade argument that states: “Well it’s only 1 bat, this teams needs about 5 bats, there’s no point.” If you make your team better with minimal risk, there’s nothing wrong with that. And trading a pitching prospect for an everyday player also makes sense. Pitching prospects pan out so infrequently. I’m not saying trade Holt or Meijia, but based on the DeRosa trade it’s clear that you don’t have give up tons of prospects to get a solid player. Stoner, Gee, Parnell, two of those guys may have gotten it done, and I don’t have a prob with that. That’s all I’m saying.

And having said all that, if Beltran is out for the year, as Joey Tribiani would say, “the point is moooo.”

by David G on Jun 30, 2009 1:11 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

The point is, Minaya is good at scouting.

So don’t get mad at him for that when you can rip him to shreds on his inability to provide roster depth.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jun 30, 2009 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

If he's so good at scouting

Why do we not have a serviceable middle infielder of any kind that we can call up? He’s been around 5 years now, you know. We had to trade for a .190 hitter in Oil Spill?

by David G on Jun 30, 2009 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's not necessarily scouting

As it is poor organizational management. He can’t create a slick fielding SS out of thin air, but he certainly should have had a backup plan beyond Cora and Ramon Martinez. Or at the very least, it shouldn’t have taken two weeks from Reyes going down to pick one up. And it shouldn’t have been Argenis, whose not a SS.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Meddler on Jun 30, 2009 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Exactly

But it wouldn’t have been a prospect who would be the “serviceable middle infielder”. It should have been a veteran that can contribute in the majors, not a raw prospect.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jun 30, 2009 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Again, Minaya's been around how many years and

he’s not drafted a serviceable middle infielder, or any solid position player other than Evans and Murphy that are major league ready for ‘09? Sorry, Flores, FMart and Marte might be good in a few years, but that’s not a very good track record for scouting when he’s had 4 or 5 drafts or whatever is by now. There are a lot of rounds where with good scouting you can get college level players that are closer to being major league ready guys than Argenis effing Reyes.

by David G on Jun 30, 2009 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

But again, middle infield defensive replacements are for veterans.

Not necessarily a prospect job. The fact that he didn’t really have anything is bad organizational planning, plain and simple. He focused on other aspects, and either way, most prospects don’t make the majors. And considering we’ve used most of our prospects in the recent past in trades…what do you really expect? AAA stocked with prospects?

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jun 30, 2009 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I expect better than A. Reyes

and that’s not too much to ask. At all. I’d love to see a list of middle infielders we’ve drafted since ‘04 or ’05? You’re saying we traded some guys away. Other than Keppinger (who’d be very nice to have btw), I don’t recall them trading any 2b or SS of any value. Maybe we are drafting too many pitchers and not enough position players in our drafts? I don’t know, that’s just a shot in the dark. Just seems like we should have a few more decent players that are in the age range of 22-26 that could come up and help.

by David G on Jun 30, 2009 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Keppinger

Like DeRosa, a butcher in the middle infield: -3.6 UZR/150 at 2B, -17.6 (!) at SS.

by JoshNY on Jun 30, 2009 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

And again

You’re basing way too much of your opinion on zone rating.

by David G on Jun 30, 2009 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

But...

What’s the point of playing multiple positions if he isn’t good at any of them?

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jun 30, 2009 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

OK

in addition to being a poor fielder, Jeff Keppinger is injury-prone and has a career OBP under .340.

by JoshNY on Jun 30, 2009 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Have you counted how many first round draft picks he had before last year?

The number is: 1. That player is currently in the major league rotation.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Meddler on Jun 30, 2009 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Some other infielders we drafted

Daniel Murphy, 3B (2006, 13th round)
Josh Thole, 1B (2005, 13th round)
Lucas Duda, 1B (2007, 7th round)
Zachary Lutz, 3B (2007, 5th round)
Matt Bouchard, SS (2007, 11th round)

If there’s a flaw, its that Omar’s spent all his 2nd and 3rd round picks up until recently on raw arms, and not nearly enough on middle infielders. But that’s a decent haul of infielders over the last three years for nothing but infielders drafted in the 5th round or later.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Meddler on Jun 30, 2009 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Havens???!!

King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president

by Sam Page on Jun 30, 2009 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I was going pre-2008

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Meddler on Jun 30, 2009 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

PHEW

King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president

by Sam Page on Jun 30, 2009 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Only one middle infielder on that list, though

and Thole’s a catcher now. Hopefully Havens will pan out, seems like he should be playing 2nd right now to get him ready.

by David G on Jun 30, 2009 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not a big Omar defender, don't worry

and I think you’ve got some valid points here. DeRosa would help, but my argument isn’t one of, “well might as well give up” as it is “get those players, but only at a reasonable price.” This team is so broken, I don’t think they can overpay for one player, but they can still pursue one player.

King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president

by Sam Page on Jun 30, 2009 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

lol

@ you suggesting Mark DeRosa play shortstop for the Mets, and that he would help the Mets in the same sentence. I don’t think DeRo is helping any team that wants him playing SS.

"It's like the old phrase goes.....The balls in your court now Mr.Church, so you take that ball, you dribble it up the court and....................................... get a layup"
- Keith Hernandez

by nrmax88 on Jun 30, 2009 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

DeRosa UZR/150:

Career numbers:
-8.4 at SS
-7.7 at 3B
-7.5 at 2B
-4.1 at LF
-22.4 at 1B
-4.1 at LF
21.3 at RF

And in 2009:
-28.1 at 1B
-16.3 at 3B
14.1 at LF
36.0 at RF

The 2009 numbers have small sample size issues, of course. The career numbers pretty clearly indicate that he’s a butcher anywhere in the infield, and the only place he’s a plus defender is one of the few places where we already HAVE a plus defender who’s not terrible with the bat.

I mean, don’t get me wrong, he’s not a terrible hitter, but I’m skeptical about his late-career-developing power (before last year he’d never hit more than 13 HR in a season, which I think we can all agree isn’t great for a corner outfielder), and more skeptical about how it would translate to a HR-suppressing park like Citi Field, and his career OBP is .347, and the MSM-favorite mantra of “he can fill in anywhere in the field” is awfully hollow when he’s terrible just about anywhere he plays. (I mean, you could sign Jim Edmonds and stick him at 2B for a few games and then say “look, he’s a utility player!” but he’s not helping you there either.) I’m really just not seeing the huge appeal to him.

(And that’s altogether separate from any personal animosity I might have due to the fact that he played QB for Penn.)

by JoshNY on Jun 30, 2009 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Too put so much faith in zone ratings

It’s just silly. No other way to put it. Does he make the plays he can get to? He’s a solid athlete and his bat makes up for the lack of range, especially if he was playing 2b. If zone ratings are so crucial, just put a bunch of awesome fielding, no bat specialists out there? You wouldn’t win a game. Don’t try and tell me guys like Castillo and Cora have much range. They absolutely don’t.

by David G on Jun 30, 2009 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Do you really want Mark DeRosa? Honestly?

He isn’t that good, plain and simple.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jun 30, 2009 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Over what they are throwing out there now?

Absolutely. Their everyday lineup is an abomination. He’s not that good, but he’d be leading this team in HRs and RBIs? I’d take him if all it cost was Parnell or a Gee or an Owen or a Stoner.

But whatever, that horse has left the barn, I know that. The main point now is a new guy could at least give the team a little spark and some hope. That can have a rallying effect and get you some wins. It’s not just about the 1 bat you get, it’s what it can do for the rest of the team, too. And there are guys out there that you don’t have to break the freaking bank for.

by David G on Jun 30, 2009 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Over what we have, yes.

And I wouldn’t mind trading Gee, Owen, or Stoner, obviously. But I don’t think that would have done it. Apparently the Cards’ PTBNL is a high upside, good prospect.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jun 30, 2009 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

would he?

how can you assume DeRosa would be leading the Mets in HR and RBI when A) we know Citi Field suppresses HR numbers whereas DeRosa has been playing in a park that favors hitters, and B) he’s been getting RBI opportunities based on the players around him in Cleveland rather than those hypothetically around him in NY?

by JoshNY on Jun 30, 2009 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Are you suggesting that RBI isn't the most awesomest stat ever, perfect in player evaluation???

"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."

by Evan_S on Jun 30, 2009 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

My dad was having this conversation with me.

He was like, “Ok, but it’s not perfect, but why do you think it’s in the Triple Crown???”
/facepalm

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jun 30, 2009 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Everyday it seems I get into the same arguments about stats.

OBP is better than AVG is one people can’t seem to grasp, but don’t outright dismiss it. Wins and Saves I can usually convince people. But RBI, perception of defense (like when I try to explain that a great play by a crappy defender, player A is a routine play by a good defender, player B… jeter is usually player A) errors, fielding percentage, ERA, people just can’t accept that those stats, especially by themselves are severely flawed.

Maybe I just suck at explaining.

"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."

by Evan_S on Jun 30, 2009 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's taken a few years of discussion

but my ~60 year old dad is into OBP and SLG and hates BA. Thinks wins and saves are dumb too. Watching a game with him is even more enjoyable now.

by James Kannengieser on Jun 30, 2009 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Some people are so down on RBIs as a stat

That it’s gone from being way overrated to slightly underrated.

by David G on Jun 30, 2009 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

No

it doesn’t tell you anything useful. It can’t be underrated if its value is 0.

King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president

by Sam Page on Jun 30, 2009 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It tells you something useful kinda

Like how often the hitters ahead of that guy are getting on base.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Meddler on Jun 30, 2009 6:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nothing about the actual hitter, though, of course.

So it’s totes useful.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jun 30, 2009 7:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It means nothing. At all. Zero.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jun 30, 2009 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

well, right

obviously a player’s defense and offense are both part of what he brings to the team, but it remains silly to tout how DeRosa plays a bunch of different positions when the reality is that he’s poor at almost all of them. it’s like saying “hey, Adam Dunn plays first base AND the outfield!” except that DeRosa isn’t half the hitter than Dunn is.

and don’t we all know by now that “does he make the plays he can get to?” is a poor way to evaluate a fielder?

by JoshNY on Jun 30, 2009 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Can you tell me

exactly how many plays he would not get to? I’d like your prediction on exactly how many runs DeRosa would cost at 2b vs. a guy like Castillo or Cora or A. Reyes or at 1b vs. Murphy. Because I guarantee if you then looked at his runs produced vs. those players, DeRosa would come out ahead. Even at Citi, way ahead. DeRosa actually has the ability to DRIVE A BALL and with some power. There is value in that, and I value that more than your precious zone rating, sorry. I value his slugging pct. over Castillo or Murphy’s lack of slugging pct. I can’t just look at Castillo’s OBP and claim he’s an above avg. player. I see him play everyday, he’s not an above avg. player. I’m mainly now focusing on Castillo, because if guys came back, I could have seen DeRosa being the everyday secondbasemen.

I love all sorts of baseball stats, but Zone rating is not a perfected stat. Guys that have seemingly bad range often have great zone ratings and vice-versa. It’s ridiculous to put as much faith in it as you do. I can see with my own 2 eyes if a guy has range or not.

And regarding RBIs, yes you obviously factor in how many chances he’s had. But it’s very reasonable to assume that if DeRosa was an everyday player on this team he’d be up there with the leaders based on his recent track record. And I would just about guarantee he’d have 15 to 20 more RBIs than Castillo does right now if he was playing 2b everyday (no matter where he was batting). And you can throw out Castillos batting avg. with risp, because his hits with risp rarely drive in actual runs.

This is my last post on this, Derosa’s not coming here, so I’m now dropping it. For some reason, this geeky zone rating thing gets me worked up, maybe I’m old fashioned. But I’m in favor of getting a bat, even if it’s a slow fielding power bat. That’s all.

by David G on Jun 30, 2009 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree that the defensive stats shouldn't be taken as Gospel

but they shouldn’t be outright dismissed as you are doing. Some of these stats are pretty high level (UZR, +/-, PMR) and the best practice is to look at all of them to get an idea of how good a player is. It’s rare when one of these stats says a guy is a +10 defender and another stat says he’s -10. They generally agree within a reasonable range. Hopefully you will keep an open mind.

by James Kannengieser on Jun 30, 2009 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

look, dude

obviously “my precious zone rating” doesn’t tell you anything about a player’s hitting. what it tells you is that people are silly to talk about how DeRosa can play a lot of different places in the field as if he were good at all those different places in the field.

what it UZR good for telling you is how much range someone has in the field, and unless you’ve been watching every game Mark DeRosa has played for the past few years, I trust it more than what your two eyes or my two eyes tell me over a small sample size.

and I’m perfectly fine with getting an all-hit-no-field power bat, but if that’s what you’re going to get then get an actual power bat like Adam Dunn (who the Mets could’ve had last winter for a perfectly reasonable price tag), not a mediocre hitter like DeRosa. the guy just isn’t as good at the plate as you seem to think he is. he’s had one season with more than 13 HR. his career OPS+ is under 100.

looking at it another way, DeRosa is 34 and has 82 career HR; Dunn had more than that many by the time he was 24. now, obviously, the possibility of Dunn becoming a Met is probably in the past as well, but I’m offering him up for comparison of what an actual all-hit-no-field player should do with the bat, as opposed to what DeRosa does.

by JoshNY on Jun 30, 2009 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Can you see with your own 2 eyes?

Because data shows us time and time again that eyes are flawed, or more correctly, are tricked by our brains. Thinking anything else makes you no better than the Harold Reynold’s of the world.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jun 30, 2009 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

No

What I said was if the alternative is Cora or Argenis Reyes, than yes DeRosa would be better than them at short for a couple games. Absolutely. Laugh all you want, I’ll laugh at Reyes and Cora’s career OPS.

by David G on Jun 30, 2009 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Harper source dollars to donuts is Phillips

This just reads as something our former GM would opine.

by cuseindahuse on Jun 30, 2009 1:18 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Those three players certainly don’t suggest a pipeline of Dominican talent, mostly because only one of them is Dominican in the first place.

C’mon, Sam, you can’t expect a grumpy old sportswriter to know these things. Does it matter if they’re Dominican, Venezuelan, Puerto Rican, or Mexican? No! They’re just a bunch of overhyped kids who don’t speak English well who, if/when they become stars in the big leagues, will be ripped by guys like Harper for being too “flashy”.

The Mets need to fill their farm system with white guys who played tight end in the Big 10. Who cares if they can’t play baseball? They’ll be gritty!

Somehow, a chain of events unfolded that put Steve Phillips in a professional broadcast booth Sunday night so he could rip Carlos Beltran. Try to explain that in any other terms.

by Greenpoint Ian on Jun 30, 2009 2:11 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Darin Erstad

is very grittily putting up an OPS+ of 31 so far this year. I bet the Astros would let him go for cheap. I know he punted in the Big 12 rather than playing tight end in the Big 10, but it’s close enough.

(No sir, I’m not holding onto any lingering bitterness after drafting Erstad for my fantasy team after his ridiculous 2000 season when he had 240 hits including 25 HR and 28 SB. No, not me.)

by JoshNY on Jun 30, 2009 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree for the most part -

Minaya’s strength is international scouting – that and getting quality throw-ins in trades (Maine with Julio for Benson, Perez with Hernandez for Nady). Getting Fernando, Mejia, Flores, Marte, Tejeda, etc is great – but they are all long-term projects. They mean we should have a strong core into the 2010s, which excites me a lot. However – this team is also win-now, which means Minaya should try to be getting at least something more out of his high-level minors. Our system has consistently been ranked in the bottom third of the league for his entire tenure, even before the Santana trade, with consensus being that the Mets had good high-ceiling guys in the low levels, but barren upper levels. John Sickels in particular is often very down on our farm for rushing these high-ceiling guys. It’s only now, as guys like the ones you mentioned are hitting AA and AAA, that our system is becoming more respectable (that, and that class of ’07 trio of Davis, Havens and Holt is fantastic).

But for the past 4.5 years, we’ve had very little. And as far as saying “Here comes the major-league ready talent graduated during Minaya’s tenure list: Lastings Milledge, Daniel Murphy, John Maine, Nick Evans, Jon Niese, Fernando Martinez, Mike Pelfrey, and Bobby Parnell. Not bad for a win-now team with a huge payroll.” Be honest….Milledge is currently persona non grata in Washington; Murphy seems to have been figured out by the league and really needs to make adjustments, because right now he is replacement level; Maine was acquired via trade and was not developed by us; Evans looked terrible last year, but he has been raking since being recalled, but that said it’s WAY too soon to count him as major-league ready talent graduated, and even then he’s a platoon bat at this point; it’s way too early to make any judgments about Niese’s readiness at this point since he’s been in AAA for all but 2 starts this year; Fernando really isn’t ready yet at this point and only hit the show due to our mind-boggling injury trainwreck; Pelfrey is legit – no quibbles there; and Parnell might someday be a serviceable reliever but at this point the league has figured him out and his WHIP is 1.94(!!!).

All that to say, yes, Omar has not found enough major-league ready talent in the past 5 years (but he has us in good shape come 2011 and beyond). I love this team, but the farm system really is one of Omar’s weaknesses – he gets us a couple high-ceiling gems but nothing around them, no complementary pieces that can help in the short-term, and these past couple years we REALLY could have used those.

by mookstra2 on Jun 30, 2009 2:16 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I agree with almost all of this.

But I can absolutely say that if Niese came up right now, I would put money on him being our 3rd or at least our fourth best starter. Better him than Nieve, Redding, or Livan.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jun 30, 2009 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Niese

You’re probably right, although that says a lot more about the state of our rotation than it does about Niese. And despite his last start, I still wonder if Nieve might turn out to be a great garbage-pile pick up – a formerly highly-regarded prospect, had a very nice rookie season in 06, got injured and had a rough couple years. It’s not out of the question that he could be a nice middle of the rotation guy for the rest of the year. He won’t be as crazy good as his first couple of starts were, but I could see him being solid.

by mookstra2 on Jun 30, 2009 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I love how guys who have no idea about the minor leagues report on it

and state that so and so has a poor minors league system. After all Francesa just gave Omar an “F” for the Mets minor league system

My guess is that they look at preseason lists and conclude nothing changes during the year. When the Mets have a top 12 or so rated system next year, these same people will talk about how deep it is. Then again it is the Mets so they’d probably say the Mets have a crappy minor league system if it was rated number one.

"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."

by Evan_S on Jun 30, 2009 2:20 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Where did Francesa do that?

And how many minutes of research did they do?

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jun 30, 2009 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I was listening to him

and a caller asked Francesa to rate Omar on trades/free agent signings and the minor league system. He gave Omar I think a C in the trades/FA but as soon as the question was asked, without hesitation, said F for the minor league system.

"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."

by Evan_S on Jun 30, 2009 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wow, what a tool.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jun 30, 2009 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He does know who Mejia, Holt and Davis are though.

He doesn’t know anything about them but apparently heard their names out of Minaya’s mouth and that Omar’s high on them.

He did pronounce Mejia “Ma-hay-as” it’s a somewhat hard name to pronounce but adding an “s” to a name that doesn’t have it always shows me someone who doesn’t know what their talking about.

One thing I always find baffling, is it so hard for Harper or Francesa or whoever the next to trash the Mets’ minor league system, is it so hard to go to milb.com and check out some of their stats? I just pulled up the stat leaders for each of the Bisons, B-Mets, St. Lucie Mets, and Sand Gnats in about a minute. Not hard.

"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."

by Evan_S on Jun 30, 2009 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

What also drives me crazy

is that these are first guys to say, “You have to make a trade!” or “You have to sign free agent X” both of which deplete the farm system. The reality is it is highly unlikely for the Mets (or the Yankees for that matter) to have a top rated farm team or too many “major league ready” pieces. The fan bases and the media do not have the patience to wait for either team to build through their farms.

by blains2000 on Jun 30, 2009 3:11 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Milledge and Hanrahan were traded to Pitt for Nyjer Morgan and Sean Burnett

this means we get to see Morgan 9 more times. Now they have 2 annoying guys who catch everything we hit (Wille Harris). Ugh

by Rigsay on Jun 30, 2009 5:48 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Also Jerry on Francesa's show today said he would sit Wright and Sheff tomorrow against Gallardo

he’s basically waving the white flag for this game. Only reason to watch is to see if the Mets get no-hit. In fact it just puts that much more pressure on Johan for tonight

by Rigsay on Jun 30, 2009 5:59 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Another thing.

Why does Jerry always feel the need to announce these things in advance? You’re just setting yourself up for other teams to strategize against you, and you follow through on your “promises” less than 50% of the time, anyway.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jun 30, 2009 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

right, but if everyone KNOWS he follows through on his promises less than half of the time

then teams can’t strategize against them!

or can they?

Jerry is just on a whole other level of strategery from everyone else.

by JoshNY on Jun 30, 2009 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

More like...

Strata-JERRY
hahahahahahahahahah…
silence.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jun 30, 2009 7:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Start posting about the Mets »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recent FanPosts

Small
AAOP - It's Late, But Still Good
Small
AAOP: A new outlook...
Me_go_mets_small
AAOP: Just get Pujols
Small
AAOP: Supplementing the Core
Small
AAOP
The_buddha_by_lord_karsus_small
Grissionometer
Misc_007_small
Madoff, Backman, and an Old Baseball Jacket
Images-1_small
AAOP. The Way to fix the mets roster without causing to much damage to their minors system (batting)
Axolotl_small
This Is What Is Wrong With WAR
Small
AAOP: Pitching wins.

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

FanShots

Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.

Recommended FanShots

Marty Noble: Glavine Claims Young Mets Weren't Offended By Losing
WAR analysis of AAOPs

Recent FanShots

No Matt Holliday or Jason Bay apparently means Adrian Gonzalez
Wallace Matthews says Mets should look to 2011
This idea looks familar
LoDuca seeking work
AFL: Havens continues to rake
Nick Evans catching in the bullpen plus a little bit of BP. I think I am a bit generous about his...
Marty Noble has no idea what Sabermetrics are.
Kottaras Waived, Claimed
Is it really that tough to play in New York?
Scott Moviel AFL video

+ New FanShot All FanShots >

Sponsors


THE BIG GUY

Aa_avatar_small Eric Simon

THE INCREDIBLES

Blackfish2_small Alex Nelson

Cj_small Sam Page

Best_infield_ever_small James Kannengieser

THE NEWS GURU

Wrightfront_small Joe Budd

THE POET LAUREATE

Hamheadshot__1__small Howard Megdal