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Mets Community Prospect List: #6 RUNOFF!


With a virtual tie between Josh Thole (21 votes) and Reese Havens (20 votes) for the #6 spot and a spirited debate in the comments section, this seems like a good time to do a runoff to determine who the #6 prospect is.

The list so far:

  1. Fernando Martinez
  2. Jenrry Meija
  3. Brad Holt
  4. Wilmer Flores
  5. Jonathon Niese

For the runoff, only the two names will be posted in the poll.  A one vote difference will be counted this time around, so consider your vote carefully, as this is an opportunity to change your mind, and an opportunity for those who voted for others to throw their hat into the Thole vs. Havens ring.  Afterward, the winner will be added to the list and the loser will be thrown back in with the group of candidates for round seven.  If its a landslide, I will close the poll early and move on to round seven.  Otherwise, I will let the poll run through the night and see where we are tomorrow afternoon.  Happy voting!


Poll
Who is the Mets #6 prospect?
Reese Havens
33 votes
Josh Thole
32 votes

65 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 74 comments

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Comments

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Boo

Thole won now he’s getting Gored. Also, I broke into your hotel, I see that Meddler voted for Havens, foul play methinks.

by Sokojoe on Jun 30, 2009 1:46 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I'm just following the Sickels guidelines

They always do runoffs if its at all close. Two votes would have locked it for Thole ;)

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Meddler on Jun 30, 2009 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Besides

One Ike Davis vote could have been the difference. How is that fair?

Seriously though, I pretty much made up my mind last night to do a runoff unless someone broke away. Didn’t happen, so runoff it is. I’d have done it if Reese was ahead by one vote. I swearz.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Meddler on Jun 30, 2009 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ha, you really don't have to explain yourself

Ranking lists are subjective in any format (e.g. Top Albums of 2008, Top Whiskys, Top Short Stories by David Foster Wallce.) I’m just glad we actually have 10 prospects to have this discussion with.

BA’s 2005 Rankings
1. Lastings Milledge, of – Traded for Church/Schnieder
2. Yusmeiro Petit, rhp – Traded for Delgado
3. Gaby Hernandez, rhp – Traded for Paul LoDuca
4. Ian Bladergroen, 1b – Traded for Eye Chart
5. Ambiorix Concepcion, of – Released, what an overrated prospect
6. Alay Soler, rhp – Released
7. Shawn Bowman, 3b – Trying to get his career going after injuries
8. Victor Diaz, of – Traded for minor league catcher Mike Nickeas
9. Jesus Flores, c – I forgot
10. Matt Lindstrom, rhp – Traded for Jason Vargas

by Sokojoe on Jun 30, 2009 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Blech

What a gross list. All that’s left is Bowman, and that’s not out of any desperation the organization had to keep him. Its pretty much Lastings and then crap, Gaby, crap, crap, crap, injuries, crap, Rule V oversight, mediocre big league closer.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Meddler on Jun 30, 2009 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

flores

was a Rule 5 player the Mets left unprotected.

smart move..

"I told him the next time he does that, I’m going to get my blade out and cut him, right on the field. Hey, I’m a gangsta now. You go gangsta on me, I’m gonna have to get you now."
- Jerry Manuel

by dave the rave on Jun 30, 2009 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, I was joking

It was painful seeing Ice Williams on the 40 man spot but no Flores because it’s not like, outside a LHP, catcher is the easiest position to “hide” on your roster for a year.

by Sokojoe on Jun 30, 2009 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think what he meant was that he was tryig to forget

"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."

by Evan_S on Jun 30, 2009 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

i just puked all over my keyboard

Let’s hope our new top 10 list doesn’t end up causing the same reaction 4 years from now.

by metsjetsnets on Jun 30, 2009 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

what happend to soler?

he just got released?

"I told him the next time he does that, I’m going to get my blade out and cut him, right on the field. Hey, I’m a gangsta now. You go gangsta on me, I’m gonna have to get you now."
- Jerry Manuel

by dave the rave on Jun 30, 2009 6:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Go Reese Go!

Nothing against Thole, but this is awesome. This run-off is way more entertaining than my job.. oh crap BOSS!

by meigs1414 on Jun 30, 2009 1:54 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I haven't voted yet

Last time, I voted Havens for his ceiling but I like Thole’s sustained success all year in the upper levels.

by TheBigStapler on Jun 30, 2009 2:12 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I voted Thole last time, Havens this time.

I didn’t really change my opinion, but I decided to think of this as a BEST prospect list, not a MOST IMPORTANT prospect list.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jun 30, 2009 2:15 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Do you mean

in terms of an organizational weakness? Because middle infield and catcher are our two biggest weaknesses.

Or do you mean in terms of MLB readiness?

by TheBigStapler on Jun 30, 2009 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

We're actually pretty decent organizationally at MI

Much weaker at C. But MI, we’ve got Tejada, Havens, Flores, and some pure gloves like Coronado and Veloz. After Thole, there really ain’t much at C. Frankie Pena?

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Meddler on Jun 30, 2009 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree that we have some good MI talent compared to Havens

but they’re much younger and/or worse and/or not going to stay at SS/2B at all.

by TheBigStapler on Jun 30, 2009 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Tejada is!!!

We’ll see on the other too. I’m banking on Havens at 2B and Flores at neither.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Meddler on Jun 30, 2009 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Tejada is staying there, for sure.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jun 30, 2009 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Tejada falls in the much younger camp.

by TheBigStapler on Jun 30, 2009 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He's in Double-A and doing quite decent things

Yeah, he’s young, but his glove is pretty polished and his strike zone judgment is tremendous. I could see him reaching MLB readiness at least as soon as Havens, if not sooner.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Meddler on Jun 30, 2009 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Pena has been a huge disappointment thus far.

Too bad the yanks didn’t take him as a favor to Tony Pena and let us have Montero.

I’m right now undecided. I voted Thole last time, mostly because he’s a catcher who can hit, but Havens has much more potential, as you said he does have Utley has a comp (if everything goes perfectly of course).

I’m thinking that I’m gonna wait until the end and hope it’s 20 to 19 or something and then tie it up.

"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."

by Evan_S on Jun 30, 2009 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Those two aren’t really comparable — Pena will be a catcher, Montero won’t.

I think Pena is pretty underrated — he’s certainly got the tools, and he hit decently last year.

by T Pac on Jun 30, 2009 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wait

You’re not willing to give Thole the benefit of the doubt, but you are willing to give it to Pena for his .688 Savannah OPS and 95/25 K/BB in 426 PAs? That’s crazy talk.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Meddler on Jun 30, 2009 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Actually, not at all.

You’re just defending your original argument.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jun 30, 2009 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

you can't be serious

Wake me up when someone tries to say Pena is the organization’s 6th best prospect.

Pena had a decent year last season with the stick for a 18 year old. I don’t see how that can be disputed.

by T Pac on Jun 30, 2009 6:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It would have been fine

If he’d like, torn up rookie ball or something. But he’s done nothing to suggest he’s going to be anything resembling a good hitter. That doesn’t mean he won’t or can’t, but he wasn’t the kind of prospect the Mets should have been screwing around with ARL for. He should probably be in his first year in Savannah this year.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Meddler on Jun 30, 2009 6:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

A guy who puts up a .688 OPS in the Sally league would have certainly put up huge numbers in Rookie year. I don’t see much outrage over Jefry Marte failing to produce.

Pena is a solid prospect because of his plus-defensive ability, his power potential and his 2008 season should show that he can hit, at least a little, because there’s no way you can deny it was a decent year.

by T Pac on Jun 30, 2009 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm pretty outraged about Marte

It wasn’t his rookie year though, it was his sophmore year, and second tour of the league.

And I’m not really seeing you make an argument for him having offensive potential or giving me any reason to be particularly enamored with his second SAL season so much as you keep telling me I can’t deny it. He struck out a lot. He didn’t walk much. He didn’t hit for much power. He didn’t improve as the year went along, if anything he got worse. I deny it. It wasn’t a good year. It was just better than what he did the year before.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Meddler on Jun 30, 2009 7:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

that’s why i said “decent”

by T Pac on Jun 30, 2009 8:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

it all boils down to the same silly notion

that a guy with a .900 (or whatever) OPS in the GCL did better than a .700 OPS in the SAL, even if they those numbers are roughly equivalent.

by T Pac on Jun 30, 2009 8:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's kinda true I guess

But I think you’re overstating the difference. Plug Pena’s FSL numbers into the MLE calculator and translate it to the SAL (they don’t have the rookie leagues). It still has him at .244 / .297 / .328. Yuck, and worse than he was last year.

IMO, the guy has to produce at some level if you want to give him credit for “having produced”. If the ARL is crazy extreme and the numbers are someone respectable, fine. 18 in the SAL isn’t crazy extreme, its an outlier, but not unheard of. 18 in Double-A is crazy extreme. 17 in the SAL is crazy extreme. Its diminished by the fact that he already had a year of experience in the league, and a .680 OPS is barely respectable, if even (Especially when its supported by a .330 BABIP from a guy with a career .284 BABIP against the much looser defenses of the low minors).

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Meddler on Jun 30, 2009 8:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's not to say I don't think they're prospects

But I don’t have any information that’s not anecdotal notes about his build (he’s got cankles!) or potential. I’ve never seen the kid play. I can’t tell you what he does that would make me think twice about the numbers. I haven’t read anything that screams at me “IGNORE THE NUMBERS”. It just kinda seems like he is what he is so far. And until the organization lets him catch up to his level, that’s just nothing special. The defensive potential alone makes him a prospect, but it won’t carry him through the system.

And as for Marte, his stock has dropped quite a bit this season in my book.

I don’t take “having potential” for a teenager whose not showing signs of something really special or improvement beyond expectation as very meaningful. To me, it just means they’re farther away and more risky. If he was 20 putting up a .680 OPS in Double-A, he’d be a better prospect. But he’s not. He’s 18 and doing nothing particularly impressive in Single-A. Even if the league is ahead of him, that just puts him farther behind than it does suggest anything special about his status as a prospect.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Meddler on Jun 30, 2009 7:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

.210/.263/.283

That’s what Pena put up in his first season in the Sally

.230/.265/.330 is Marte’s line and at least Marte had success last year.

Pena has never hit, Marte has at least shown he can. Not saying Pena won’t put it together but he hasn’t shown any signs.

"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."

by Evan_S on Jul 1, 2009 2:04 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well, Pena has tools no question, but he hasn't produced.

If he hit something like .270/.330/.400 last year I’d be a lot higher on him or if he had an OPS somewhere near .700.

And your 100% right, Montero has no shot to stay at catcher, just slipped my mind.

"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."

by Evan_S on Jun 30, 2009 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Exactly.

Tejada was having loads of trouble adjusting to his leagues as he was being rushed, but he’s finally broken out, it seems. Pena’s been the same way, and catcher’s usually mature even slower.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jun 30, 2009 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

At least Tejada showed some signs in the DSL

Pena wasn’t really given that chance, but he’s really done nothing with the stick of note, at least yet. Lets see him crack a .700 OPS before we start going gaga over his tools.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Meddler on Jun 30, 2009 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not going gaga.

But I would put him on the tester list in a couple of spots. Lutz and Bowman should be on there too. (I don’t know if Bowman already is).

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jun 30, 2009 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think I have him as a tester

Bowman and Lutz, not yet. Bowman’s not much of a prospect at this point, no matter how much I want him to be. Lutz is. I know neither of them have a tremendous ARL, but at least Lutz has a walk rate.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Meddler on Jun 30, 2009 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Here's where I'm going to be an animal.

Tony Pena Sr was an awful hitter. Tony Pena Jr is one of the worst hitters I’ve ever laid eyes on. I’m praying that Frankie becomes Yadier to his father and brother’s Bengie and Jose.

by All Shook Down on Jun 30, 2009 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Bengie's not bad. He just doesn't walk.

Ever.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jun 30, 2009 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Bengie is awful

He doesn’t walk and doesn’t hit for a monster average like his buddy Sandoval/Ichiro, therefore he’s only marginally better than Brian Schneider. Oh, and he’s an epically bad baserunner.

by All Shook Down on Jun 30, 2009 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He's a below average starting catcher, I agree.

But the pure fact of the matter is, he hits just enough to be a useful catcher. Then again, he should never hit cleanup. Noooo.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jun 30, 2009 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Omir Santos = 0.6 WAR in 143 PA

Bengie Molina = 0.6 WAR in 276 PA

Not that it will hold for very long, but Bengie really sucks.

by All Shook Down on Jun 30, 2009 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Fair enough.

He’s had two like, average seasons.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jun 30, 2009 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I still dont get how this is even close

Havens is so much better all around and much higher ceiling. If everything goes well for Thole, he becomes a iffy defensive catcher with a .290/.350/.370 line?

by viktor06 on Jun 30, 2009 2:27 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I think he's shown enough gap power

Where a .100-.120ish ISO isn’t out of the question. He did hit five HR in 402 FSL PAs last year, and while that’s down a bit so far this year, but he’s already almost matched his doubles total, which seems completely backwards to me.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Meddler on Jun 30, 2009 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thats all nice

But he has just too much questions when compared to the tools and performance of Havens. I think the odds of Thole becoming an average defensive C with a .300/.370/.420 line is about as likely as that Havens becomes Chase Utley

by viktor06 on Jun 30, 2009 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think you're overstating it

I agree with the sentiment, and I voted Havens here, but I think Thole peaking at a line like that looks much more possible than Havens having an Utley-esque peak (and I’m the one who gave Havens the Utley comp in the Community Comps). Havens has gotta stay on the field more consistently for one thing, but even aside from that.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Meddler on Jun 30, 2009 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Matter of opinion I guess

Just seems to me that the only thing Thole showed is hitting for avg and plate discipline, which is very good if you have either a good defensive position or power to stick in the corner, he lacks both and its hard to envision him developing it considering how hard it is

by viktor06 on Jun 30, 2009 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

His defense is coming along nicely from everything I've read

Nothing special, but he’s not a butcher either. He’s not way disconnected from average defense.

And just to put something tangible on this, here are the Peak MLE’s from BP for Thole and Havens:

Thole: .301 / .377 / .461
Havens: .219 / .328 / .413

Obviously, this is very flawed. This doesn’t account for Thole’s lack of power projection or Havens nagging injuries. But Thole’s power projection isn’t “zero,” there’s just not much of it. And Havens still has to hit his way out of the FSL before that number goes way up. Its based on a lot more data for Thole, and a relatively small amount for Havens. While that may skew the results, it is something you have to account for.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Meddler on Jun 30, 2009 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, I'd say sorta ignore the Havens data.

But you can’t ignore Thole’s data. A .838 OPS from your catcher is more than “adequate”.
And with that, he doesn’t need to be an above average defender. And, again, scouts have said he’s made great progress this year with his defense.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jun 30, 2009 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well

Only time will tell. Btw – I didnt mean he had zer power, I meant that he needed one of the tools – either hit for good power or have good defensive position (be at least average there) and that he currently doesnt have either.
Also Havens BABIP is killing him, while he’s having very good power and plate discipline at FSL.

I still think that their likely average outcomes are – Havens average defensive 2B with a .270/.350./450 line and Thole .290/.360/.380 with iffy C defense

by viktor06 on Jun 30, 2009 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I just think you're stretching both of them out a bit

You’re assuming that a move to the other side of the keystone is gonna turn Havens into an average defensive player. I’d say that’s significantly less likely than Thole becoming an average defense catcher. Not terribly unlikely mind you, but still, there’s nothing at all to suggest that’s what’s going to happen aside from the odd scouting report that talks about Havens “intangibles”. He has crappy range, and that’ll be the case on either side of second base most likely. Range is just slightly less of a factor at second where the crazy throws from the hole aren’t quite as crazy.

Thole, on the other hand, has been steadily improving his defense for a year and a half now. His CS% is a perfectly average 25% for his career and a solid 30% this year, and his PBs aren’t off the charts.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Meddler on Jun 30, 2009 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

And it's not inconceivable that he develops some added power.

At 22, Thole is still maturing, it’s not impossible he becomes a 10-15 home run guy. Even a guy like Mauer (I don’t know his college numbers) never hit for much power before this year. He had 9 homers in 1000 minor league at bats Thole has 8 in 1100. Obviously Mauer was a far superior prospect and will have a vastly superior career, but it’s just to make the point that at his relatively young age, he still can project some additional power.

And of course, his defense is improving. He’s converted from something I believe, so his defense will have to balance itself, but as of right now it seems, based on Meddler’s numbers, that he’s an average defensive minor league catcher.

"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."

by Evan_S on Jun 30, 2009 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yup

Converted first baseman. I really like the Russell Martin comp though, the difference being Martin flashed some power, but it was very erratic. He had a 15 HR season in the FSL which was a ridiculously good power sign at 21, but then it regressed and he had a very Thole-esque season at 22 in the EL. Being that he was also a late round high school draftee and converted corner infielder with some early defensive problems behind the plate, I think its pretty fitting. Thole’s power numbers this year are pretty much in line with what he’s done in the past. If anything, doubles are up this year and homers are down a bit.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Meddler on Jun 30, 2009 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

As long as it's pre 2009 Russell Martin, I'll be happy.

I think if anything though, Thole might hit for a little bit of a higher average and less power maybe around .300 avg but with about 10 homers.

I’m gonna hold out hope he becomes Joe Mauer though. Look at all they have in common:
Joseph Patrick Mauer from Minnesota
Joshua Michael Thole from Illinois

Minnesota is right above Illinois. Both of their first names begin with “Jos.” All of their three names have 6,7, and 5 letters in them respectively. They’re both white (we all know comparisons have to be of the same race) And of course there’s the biblical reference Joshua ben Joseph.

That’s better than any of your stats.

"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."

by Evan_S on Jun 30, 2009 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Also

I think the “lack of power projection” is as much a remnant of his time at first base as it is something relevant for him as a catcher. He’s only been a catcher for a year and a half. So after last year, all “his bat will play at catcher”s had caveats of “but he’ll never have the power for first base”. So to some degree, the tag just hasn’t dissipated as much as it should have. He’s just a 2-7 HR guy right now relative to his league. In five years, maybe that’s 7-10. If he’s successful and see’s enough ABs every year, maybe he has one or two years where its 10-15.

Here’s a point that I think really drives it home: Thus far in his career, Thole has about a 2.4% HR/FB. For his major league career, Luis Castillo has a 3.4%. Yes, Luis Castillo. The same Luis Castillo who hit just 1 HR in all of his 1826 minor league PAs. That’s not the power level we’re dealing with here. There’s no batted ball data on what Slappy did in the minors, but if you assign his career FB% to his minor league stats (seems pretty safe, he’s been very consistent year to year), you get just a 0.4% HR/FB. It got about eight times better in his major league career. If you just double Thole’s current HR/FB, that’s 4.8%. With a 32ish FB%, that’s going to be about 4-5 HR every 100 Balls in the air. Which would mean about 4 HR for every 435 or so PAs. About 6-7 HR for every 650 PAs. I’d say assuming he reaches the majors and puts the ball in play at a similar rate to what he’s doing now, that’s about what I’d put on a low-end projection for him.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Meddler on Jun 30, 2009 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Fair enough

I read Havens has below average range at SS but has good footwork and soft hands….2B is much easier on range, so he should translate well

But yeah those are some solid points.

by viktor06 on Jun 30, 2009 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

No way, you're really selling Thole short.

He’s done everything possible to justify him being up here.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jun 30, 2009 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I disagree pretty adamantly with that.

I’d say the chances of Thole becoming an above average major league catcher are not too shabby at this point. And like Meddler said, you’re wildly overstating. Do you even have any defensive information on Thole? What about the fact that in a league that is very difficult to adjust for pitchers, Thole is getting guys like Michael Antonini and Tobi Stoner to produce good numbers? That is at least some more evidence in his favor that he is rapidly improving his game calling, which was already not bad.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jun 30, 2009 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Defense

Well, I go by scouting reports (havent seen him play with my own eyes) but havent found a scout who thinks his defense will be adequate….granted he is getting better (but getting from never playing to below average is MUCH easier than getting from below average to average)
I wont talk about Antonini and Stone influence since I dont think there is any correlation between his defense and their performance.

by viktor06 on Jun 30, 2009 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's not really true at all.

I’ve heard several scouts say that he will DEFINITELY be staying at catcher, as in his defense will be good enough.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jun 30, 2009 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed

And Thole is kinda living on BABIP

by T Pac on Jun 30, 2009 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I say he's living on his BB/K

But I guess I’m just a glass half full kinda guy.

Seriously, his BABIP is ridiculous right now, but it is .330 for his career so far so I wouldn’t regress it all the way to .300 necessarily.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Meddler on Jun 30, 2009 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's not to say

That I’d only regress it to .330, gotta count the crappy low minors defense for something. I just wouldn’t automatically regress it to .300.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Meddler on Jun 30, 2009 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Its generally hard to maintain high walk rates in MLB

without some above average power…it would likely regress as well

by viktor06 on Jun 30, 2009 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

But walks and contact aren't completely separate either

He’s still going to put the ball in play. But you’re right, and if anything, I’d expect his OBP relative to BA to regress a bit as opposed to his ISO. And besides, when someone has elite plate discipline, the power factor can be reduced. Look at Slappy. His minor league plate discipline numbers are very similar to Thole’s, and they held up. I’m not saying that means Thole’s will, but it does mean they could.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Meddler on Jun 30, 2009 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Also

That can sometimes be a mirage cause by intentional walks, of which Thole does not draw many, as you said, because of his lack of power.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Meddler on Jun 30, 2009 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Another piece of this

Is that its hard to sustain average or below power with a low walk rate. If you’re swinging at lots of bad pitches, you’re not going to drive the ball as frequently. So if you’re power isn’t anything special to begin with, it could undersell your raw strength. If you’re plate discipline is good, and you swing at a much higher rate of good pitches to hit, so you might be able to fool the raw numbers into overselling your power. There’s some chicken and the egg to this issue.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Meddler on Jun 30, 2009 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

In case it would change anyone's mind

Thole left tonight’s game with an injured hand/wrist on a play on which he got a passed ball. Hopefully it is nothing serious. I guess maybe I shouldn’t have voted for Thole largely for the injuries through which Havens has struggled.

by metslaw on Jun 30, 2009 10:57 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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