If he’d like, torn up rookie ball or something. But he’s done nothing to suggest he’s going to be anything resembling a good hitter. That doesn’t mean he won’t or can’t, but he wasn’t the kind of prospect the Mets should have been screwing around with ARL for. He should probably be in his first year in Savannah this year.

Bengie Molina = 0.6 WAR in 276 PA

Not that it will hold for very long, but Bengie really sucks.

Converted first baseman. I really like the Russell Martin comp though, the difference being Martin flashed some power, but it was very erratic. He had a 15 HR season in the FSL which was a ridiculously good power sign at 21, but then it regressed and he had a very Thole-esque season at 22 in the EL. Being that he was also a late round high school draftee and converted corner infielder with some early defensive problems behind the plate, I think its pretty fitting. Thole’s power numbers this year are pretty much in line with what he’s done in the past. If anything, doubles are up this year and homers are down a bit.

I think the “lack of power projection” is as much a remnant of his time at first base as it is something relevant for him as a catcher. He’s only been a catcher for a year and a half. So after last year, all “his bat will play at catcher”s had caveats of “but he’ll never have the power for first base”. So to some degree, the tag just hasn’t dissipated as much as it should have. He’s just a 2-7 HR guy right now relative to his league. In five years, maybe that’s 7-10. If he’s successful and see’s enough ABs every year, maybe he has one or two years where its 10-15.

Here’s a point that I think really drives it home: Thus far in his career, Thole has about a 2.4% HR/FB. For his major league career, Luis Castillo has a 3.4%. Yes, Luis Castillo. The same Luis Castillo who hit just 1 HR in all of his 1826 minor league PAs. That’s not the power level we’re dealing with here. There’s no batted ball data on what Slappy did in the minors, but if you assign his career FB% to his minor league stats (seems pretty safe, he’s been very consistent year to year), you get just a 0.4% HR/FB. It got about eight times better in his major league career. If you just double Thole’s current HR/FB, that’s 4.8%. With a 32ish FB%, that’s going to be about 4-5 HR every 100 Balls in the air. Which would mean about 4 HR for every 435 or so PAs. About 6-7 HR for every 650 PAs. I’d say assuming he reaches the majors and puts the ball in play at a similar rate to what he’s doing now, that’s about what I’d put on a low-end projection for him.