On Brandon Knight, fip/tRA*
by wobatus on Jun 4, 2009 1:07 PM EDT
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PrintI noticed that Brandon Knight was 10th in the International league in tRA*, or regressed tRA. Just behind Chris Tillman, the hyped O's prospect. Dillon Gee and Jon Niese also rank fairly well in the mid-teens, ahead of Michael Bowden, for example. So my initial intent for this post was just to say that as a stopgap, the Mets could try Knight in place of Redding, until they can make a trade or decide to give Niese another go (oh, andbtw, Mejia was number 2 in tRA* in Fla St. League before promotion).
But then I decided to look at the major league rankings in tRA*, which some have suggested is a preferred stat, and FIP, and see if anything stuck out versus my own subjective rankings.
I was struck by certain differences in how certain starters were ranked by the methods. For example. Mark Buehrle was ranked very low in tRA*, 83rd. Manny Parra ranked 40th. That seemed awfully high compared to Buehrle. FIP was more "accurate" in my mind for these 2.
Conversely, Chris Volstad was ranked 32nd in tRA*, 60th in FIP. The FIP ranking seemed too "low". He has given up 11 homers of course. But his gb/fb ratio is 1.12. Seems he is giving up an unlucky number of home runs. tRA* accounts for that, I think.
Jorge de la Rosa was ranked consistently fairly high in each. He was 20th in tRA* and 24th in FIP. But i think that is "too high". Yes, he strikes out a lot of guys. He has only given up 4 homers. But his gb/fb ratio is .83. Perhaps he has had some luck with homers allowed. But mainly, despite a k/bb of slightly better than 2, he walks too many, over 4 a game. And I think that is a better indicator of his run-suppressing abilties.
Of course, these are just isolated cases, smallish samples. However, it seems important to me to balance out the various methods of evaluating performance. In this case. But I'd say FIP gets Buehrle "right", tRA* gets him wrong. FIP gets Volstad "wrong", trA* gets him right. tRA* "overrates" Parra. FIP and tRA* both "overrate" de la Rosa, slightly.
Buehrle's era seems a bit low, but he is a pretty good pitcher with control. For this year he is about even with Volstad in my book. de la Rosa a little behind them. But his era makes him look much worse than he is. Parra just has walked way too many to be in these guys' class.
Of course, it is what it is. They each rank where they rank in each metric. None of them can be said to be right or wrong, or overrate or underrate anyone. I think, however, most people, in a team neutral, park neutral, salary neutral setting, choosing among them for a fantasy team for the rest of this year, would be tossed up on Volstad or Buehrle, some going for the vet, some the youngster. Woud likely like de la Rosa (obviously more so away from the Rockies and Coors) but be a little scared of the walks, and would say thanks but no thanks on Parra, although he has some potential.
I give some of their stats below. Forgive me for the way it is presented, for I am a bit of a luddite, but will get the hang of some of the sites rich features when i get the hang.
I think all of these metrics need to be looked at, and to weigh them all in the balance. If any of these lines are out of whack it can be a red flag. k/bb k/9 and bb/9 are all pretty good indicators. To me, Niese's era (non-sequitor alert) is a bit of a red flag despite the good peripherals, however.
And to come full circle, I still think Brandon Knight, with his number 10 ranking in tRA* in the Int'l League and a 90+ fastball, would be a nice sub for Redding.
inn h hr k bb g/f era FIP tRA* rank
Buehrle 66-1/3 64 7 42 12 .80 2.71 33 82
Parra 57-1/3 69 7 51 36 1.01 6.75 73 40
Volstad 68 56 11 54 21 1.12 3.71 60 20
delaRosa 54-2/3 52 4 57 26 .83 5.43 24 20
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I think what is shows
is that our AAA team has horrible defense and is killing the stats and psyche’s of our pitchers.
Its been bad on the big club
But Buffalo is about as bad as a professional baseball team can be in almost every facet. They’re playing friggin’ Mike Lamb at second base. Part of me just wants to pretend they don’t exist at this point.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Jun 4, 2009 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions
There's a saying
that you’re only as good as your AAA team or something. That’s obviously not true, but it begins to become truer when everyone on the big team is hurt and your prospects want to become football players
King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president
It definitely means something here
I mean, guys like Angel Pagan and Ramon Martinez didn’t even have the benefit of an extended stay in that crapfest. They were significantly better than anything the Bisons had, and thus, they got called up before guys who had, you know, been playing baseball for a few months.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Jun 4, 2009 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions
indeed
But I still think that fip and tRA* don’t capture everything. Niese’s 55 hits in 38 innings and 6 homers may be all bad luck and bad fielding. But I think some of it is he gets hit hard sometimes. Doh.
Still, think League is viable if we want Niese to get a run of success. To help his psyche. :)
At least some of it
Is that he has a GB% just under 60% with an infield defense that lately has included Javier Valentin at 3B and Mike Lamb at 2B. That’s not bad. That’s beyond bad.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Jun 4, 2009 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Exactly
Niese gets ground balls, strikes people out and doesn’t walk that many. That’s all you can ask for
I understand all this
and I think he is much better than his era, and I like him a s a propsect. But there’s an elemnt that isn’t caught by just looking at peripherals here. There are grounders, and flyballs, and then there are hard hit balls. When he is good he is very good, when he is bad….this gets smoothed out over time.
My real point in the post is that fip and tRA* alone won’t give a ll full picture, and i don’t believe, although more accurate, that even k/bb and groundball rate do (although I really think sticking to the basics like that help just as much-that’s why I used the example of Buehrle versus Parra on tRA*). You have to look at all metrics. yeah, sometimes even results.
I mean, I generally agree
But its not like his tRA* is anything special. 4.59. That seems about right to me.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Jun 4, 2009 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions
it is about right
Knight is slightly better, at 4.47 to Niese’s 4.59. And Knight’s fip is 3.64, to niese’s 4.54. That is the home runs, which, as you say below, he has little effect on.
Knight’s k/bb per 9 is 8.77/3.27. Niese is 8.53/3.08. Almost matches him in ks, better control. And I know, all not huge samples. They are close.
But Niese gets more grounders. 1.75 go/qo. knight .94.
So, actually, it looks like Knight is better, maybe, by peripherals. yet neither FIP nor tRA* capture it. Certainly e.r.a. doesn’t.
Knight has still pitched fairly well, and throws 91 mph, Niese a tick under 90. If they don’t want to go to Niese yet again, they can use Knight.
But it is interesting, the bad luck effect creeps into fip certainly, and maybe even tRA* somehow. It may be that with few grounders and a liot of ks, Knight just won’t give up an inordinate amount of hits, and his homer rate is already about where it should be.
I still like to leave room for results. Tom Glavine is going to the Hall with a career fip half a run higher than his era.
Never use Tom Glavine as a positive example of ANYTHING on a Mets site.
Ever.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
I do that
almost precisely because of that reaction. It bothers me too, good with the braves for use, eh here, with those miniscule k rates even when good. How the f did he do it? Most of us here have a visceral reaction against a pitcher like that and him in particular. But he was undoubtedly, over his career, a pretty good pitcher.
He's also a good example of a pitcher
Who simply beats the expected trends. His PECOTA Similarity Index is 13. Anything below 20 is considered “historically unusual”. He’s just a different animal than other pitchers. BTW, Matt Wieters Similarity Index: 0.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Jun 4, 2009 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Its true
All of these metrics can be fooled, just to varying degrees. You have to take career context into everything. For example, Glavine has a career .286 BABIP, in what’s obviously a huge sample size. I’m not sure how FIP would account for something like that. With someone like Niese, you don’t have that kind of track record to rely on, so you have to go much more on recent trends and realize none of its going to be that accurate. Niese has always had a highish BABIP, save last year when he was in the nominal range, but that’s probably true in the minors a lot, especially in the lower levels, where the defense isn’t as well developed. Knight could actually be a marginally useful pitcher, but he’s got all kinds of disadvantages to Niese. Age, handedness, curveball. They might be similarly useful right now, but more than anything, that would just mean Niese isn’t quite ready yet. Knight, he’s not getting any more ready than he is now.
I think the frustrating thing about Niese is that he’s developed his “stuff” to the point where you can see that he’s not that different from a mid-rotation Major League
pitcher. He could improve his changeup a bit, but he commands his pitches fairly well. He has the average fastball, which may not get much better, but with a plus curve, that’s fine. Right now, he’s in a situation where I can’t help wonder, how the hell is he supposed to learn to use contact to his advantage? I’d love to see what his BABIP on groundballs is, its got to be huge. I’m sure plenty of those are hit hard, but if more than a third of his groundballs are going for hits, how is he supposed to learn which pitches are working and which aren’t? Last year, the BABIP in the majors for Groundballs was about .240. That’d be a huge BABIP deviation, and more than anything, would indicate terrible infield defense. I remember watching the gameday one of his recent starts. He had two run scoring infield hits to Mike Lamb at second base. That does horrible things to a pitcher’s results. That’s how a pitcher winds up with a 48% LOB%.
I’m starting to believe the Buffalo Bisons are just a poor environment for young players right now. They’re so bad, its got to be miserable playing for them. Nothing Niese is doing is working. Evans was in about as horrific a slump as you could possibly imagine. Gee hasn’t been much better than Niese. In fact, he’s probably been worse, but gotten slightly better crappy results. Somehow, the only prospect to actually have success was the 20 year old F!. I still want Thole to wind up there sooner than later, but it just seems like a terrible team to be a part of for a young player right now.
P.S. To JamesK if you happen to read this: Fangraphs actually has the BABIP numbers for GB/FB/LD, and you were right, I was over calculating for FBs. I had them around .220, Fangraphs says last year they were closer to .170. Link.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Jun 4, 2009 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions
knight/niese
Oh, absolutely, Niese will end up being better than Knight and may even be right now. Knight wss just thrown out as someone useful, maybe more so than redding, and if you don’t eant to have Niese spot starting and mopping.
And Glavine IS an extreme example. But I do think he shows that there can be some effect beyond the peripherals.
Yes, buffalo seems tough. You hope that that which doesn’t kill him makes him stronger. valdez and martinez may eventually be back there. And when he is in the majors, and Reyes snags one in the hole for him, he’ll be like, dang, so THIS is the Show. of course, he has already been.
For Nick Evans, hard to see how Buffalo did it to him. Just bad luck and maybe he got into a funk.
Anyway, it still stands in my mind that fip and tra aren’t everything in evaluating. How parra is 40 in tRA* and Buehrle is 83 just shows a blind spot. Sure, Buehrle isn’t 2.75 e.r.a. good like he is now, but he has been a pretty good pitcher in his career, in the AL, in Chicago, where peavy was afraid to go, and we just had a post here about how good Vazquez is and how Chicago hid that to a degree. Parra’s line and walk rate, tehre is no way he is better, even just based on this year, even with luck and park factored out, that shouldn’t be.
Oh I'm not saying Buffalo's responsible for Evans' slump
I just think it was the worst possible place you can slump, all the negativity there is going to make it hard to break out of it.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Jun 4, 2009 7:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Awesome Meddler
Thanks for the link. If we use last year’s numbers for Frankie this year:
LD 21% * .73 = .153
GB 23% * .24 = .055
FB 56% * .15 = .084
xBABIP = .292
Actual = .234
Maybe a longer post to follow.
by James Kannengieser on Jun 4, 2009 8:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Nice, I'd love to see that
That number definitely seems more reasonable.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Jun 5, 2009 3:20 AM EDT up reply actions
yes
I have acknowledged the bad fielding. Especially tough on a groundball guy. A lot of home runs considering the grounder and k rate too. he wil almost certainly get better. Is some of it that he dominates a lot of AAA hitters, but some of the better ones can get to him?
Well
Generally speaking, HR/FB isn’t something a pitcher has much control over. Anything outside the 10-12% range is considered, at least to some degree, a product of luck. Right now, Niese is around 18%, so that’s part of what’s getting adjusted in his tRA*.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Jun 4, 2009 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions
yes I know
Not much control over. Maybe some slightly. But this is helping me think some things through some more.
I mean
It does also mean he’s getting hit harder, but regardless of the abominable results, there are some silver linings for Niese. I mean, would you prefer a guy with a 4.00 ERA, K/BB=1.20, K/9=5.00, GB=35%, HR/FB=6%, BABIP= .250? This guy probably isn’t getting hit as hard, but he’s probably not making nearly as many good pitches either.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Jun 4, 2009 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Silver Linings
agree. He still seems promising. And it may be good. maybe no one else will want him in deal as much and Omar has to hold him back. Although Beane would still covet him. he may say, gimme Niese, Tejada and Murphy for Holliday. :)
All I know
is that all the people who want to trade Niese because we have Gee (not that many, but believe me they exist) need to chillax. This would be the epitome of selling low.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
Ugh
I forget where — maybe the Post — but it said the Mets are “down” on Niese.
All this means is that in the future, Knight probably won't improve.
It doesn’t mean he’ll be worse, but that (coupled with the age factor) definitely points to Niese as the one more likely to achieve MLB success if called up.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
true
and looking at the peripherals again, i’d say fip AND tRA* are slightly underrating Niese compared to Knight. Which just goes to reinforce that some basic metrics like k rate bb rate and grounder rate m,ay be even better than the formulas.
Certainly in thr future Niese will be better.
Today, though, for a start, Knight be about as good. And if you don’t plan to keep jerking niese back and forth, spot starting him here and there, etc., knight may be a reasonable guy. You certainly won’t mind him going 7 one day, then skipping a turn for a rainout, then mopping up. Niese you want to keep regular.
This all started because is aw the knight ws doing slightly better than Niese and Gee on tra*. i know he is much older and not a real prospect.
How about Figgy? What's he looking like down there?
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
Figgy's fip is 5.82
and he throws 86 mph. His tRA* is 4.65. WAR .6. Knight’s WAR .9. Niese .3.
That's not bad.
Figgy and Knight>Redding, for sure.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
Niese's xRR -17
Knight’s only -2. Still has the better tRA*.
Hey, I am all for brininging Niese up as well if they won’t panic and will give him regular turns. Actually, knight for redding, and if livan turns back into a pumpkin, bring up Niese.
Unless we can trade Gomez and Guerra for Peavy again.
carmona
btw, non-sequitor, didn’t someone posit him as a possible trade? Yikes, 7 earned in 2 innings today, era over 7.
sell lower
or, don’t catch a falling knife. carmona has stunk up the joint 2 years running, no?
carmona sent to Arizona League Indians
BBs over Ks will do that.
Lee
Never had a strikeout rate below his walk rate. Which carmona has now had 2 years running.
Lee of course got even better than he’d ever been. His tra went from 4.10 to 4.83 to 5.45 to last year’s 2.87 and this year’s below 3 again.
carmona went from 4.08 ro 5.09 to 6.99.
Even in his 2 bad years Lee was walking around 3 a game and his k/bb was about 2/1
Carmona’s walk rate is higher than his strikeout rate and he walked 5 a game last year, 6 a game this year.
He could get better. I wouldn’t pray on catching lightning in a bottle twice.
Niese
I don’t see anything special from him. Righties seem to get really good cuts off him to the point that you wince when he faces a good one. That’s the test for me. If I wince when they throw, they are average to below avg. I didn’t wince when guys like Leiter, Viola, Randy Myers and Sid Fernandez pitched.
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