I noticed that Brandon Knight was 10th in the International league in tRA*, or regressed tRA.  Just behind Chris Tillman, the hyped O's prospect.  Dillon Gee and Jon Niese also rank fairly well in the mid-teens, ahead of Michael Bowden, for example.  So my initial intent for this post was just to say that as a stopgap, the Mets could try Knight in place of Redding, until they can make a trade or decide to give Niese another go (oh, andbtw, Mejia was number 2 in tRA* in Fla St. League before promotion).

But then I decided to look at the major league rankings in tRA*, which some have suggested is a preferred stat, and FIP, and see if anything stuck out versus my own subjective rankings.

I was struck by certain differences in how certain starters were ranked by the methods.  For example.  Mark Buehrle was ranked very low in tRA*, 83rd.  Manny Parra ranked 40th.  That seemed awfully high compared to Buehrle.  FIP was more "accurate" in my mind for these 2. 

Conversely, Chris Volstad was ranked 32nd in tRA*, 60th in FIP.  The FIP ranking seemed too "low".  He has given up 11 homers of course.  But his gb/fb ratio is 1.12.  Seems he is giving up an unlucky number of home runs.   tRA* accounts for that, I think.

Jorge de la Rosa was ranked consistently fairly high in each.  He was 20th in tRA* and 24th in FIP.  But i think that is "too high".  Yes, he strikes out a lot of guys.  He has only given up 4 homers.  But his gb/fb ratio is .83.  Perhaps he has had some luck with homers allowed.  But mainly, despite a k/bb of slightly better than 2, he walks too many, over 4 a game.  And I think that is a better indicator of his run-suppressing abilties.

Of course, these are just isolated cases, smallish samples.  However, it seems important to me to balance out the various methods of evaluating performance.  In this case.  But I'd say FIP gets Buehrle "right", tRA* gets him wrong.  FIP gets Volstad "wrong", trA* gets him right.  tRA* "overrates" Parra.  FIP and tRA* both "overrate" de la Rosa, slightly.

Buehrle's era seems a bit low, but he is a pretty good pitcher with control.  For this year he is about even with Volstad in my book.  de la Rosa a little behind them.  But his era makes him look much worse than he is.  Parra just has walked way too many to be in these guys' class.

Of course, it is what it is.  They each rank where they rank in each metric.  None of them can be said to be right or wrong, or overrate or underrate anyone.  I think, however, most people, in a team neutral, park neutral, salary neutral setting, choosing among them for a fantasy team for the rest of this year,  would be tossed up on Volstad or Buehrle, some going for the vet, some the youngster.  Woud likely like de la Rosa (obviously more so away from the Rockies and Coors) but be a little scared of the walks, and would say thanks but no thanks on Parra, although he has some potential.

I give some of their stats below.  Forgive me for the way it is presented, for I am a bit of a luddite, but will get the hang of some of the sites rich features when i get the hang.

I think all of these metrics need to be looked at, and to weigh them all in the balance.  If any of these lines are out of whack it can be a red flag.  k/bb k/9 and bb/9 are all pretty good indicators. To me, Niese's era (non-sequitor alert) is a bit of a red flag despite the good peripherals, however.

And to come full circle, I still think Brandon Knight, with his number 10 ranking in tRA* in the Int'l League and a 90+ fastball, would be a nice sub for Redding.      

                    inn       h    hr   k   bb  g/f   era    FIP  tRA* rank 

Buehrle      66-1/3  64   7  42  12  .80   2.71  33  82

Parra          57-1/3  69   7  51  36 1.01  6.75  73  40

Volstad      68         56 11  54  21 1.12  3.71  60  20

delaRosa 54-2/3   52   4  57  26  .83   5.43   24   20