What's The Damage?
by Sam Page on Jun 5, 2009 12:00 PM EDT
34 comments
With the worsening of Jose Reyes' injury, Alex Cora figures to inherit the starting shortstop job for a considerable portion of the season going forward. So far, Cora has filled in admirably, posting a .394 wOBA. His .370 BABIP is high, and his average will probably drop off a bit soon. The good news, however, is that Cora's plate discipline to this point has been fantastic, earning him the over-referenced "professional hitter" label. With 10 walks in just 66 plate appearances, it might be easy to dismiss the improvement entirely as a sample size fluke and default to his not-so-good 6.9 % walk rate and .293 wOBA. Given that he posted a solid 1.23 in the tougher AL East last year, however, Cora may well be one of many players who improve their plate discipline as they age. Cora won't maintain a .394 wOBA, but he could well beat his ZiPS rest-of-season .324 projection. For our purposes, .330 wOBA (league average) seems like a good estimate.
Assuming Jose Reyes' .370 wOBA rest-of-season projection, the difference between them can be calculated simply as: .37-.33=. 04 *PA=R. By those estimates, for every 100 PA Reyes plays over Cora, the Mets lose 4 runs or (4/10) of a win. We'll have a better idea of exactly how long Jose will be out soon enough, and you can make your own PA estimations.
The wild card in this swap is Cora's fielding. As Eric pointed out earlier, Cora's 7.8 UZR/150 is much better than Reyes' 1.9. Still, Jose's UZR yearly numbers have fluctuated from 7.5 to -3.2 in individual seasons, so it's hard to peg him just yet. He was -1.2 so far this year, in a virtually meaningless sample size. Cora, however, has seen his numbers decline a little lately, as UZR measured his shortstop defense as negative for the first time last year. Still, a year's worth of fielding data is equivalent to roughly a third of a year's worth of hitting data, in terms of statistical significance, so his career numbers may be the most accurate reflection of his ability. Alex Cora will never fully replace Jose Reyes, and just because we temper our expectations for him, doesn't prove some fictional stat/scouting divide. Regardless, he's a good backup, and just how much of Jose's value he recoups may depend largely on how sharp he is in the field.
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I FORBID YOU FROM GETTING INJURED CORA
Because the last thing I want to see is a post like this about Ramon Martinez
by Gina on Jun 5, 2009 12:04 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
what I like about Cora, from what I've seen
Is that he has a real knack for wasting pitches by fouling balls off. If nothing else, he’s wearing down the pitcher a little for everyone else.
And sometimes he manages to scrap those at-bats into walks or hits, which is even better.
We've got ourselves a ball club, the Mets of New York town!
by kingcritical on Jun 5, 2009 12:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
So you're saying . . .
he’s gritty?
(ducks/runs)
"He's definitely mixing it into his repertoire. That's French for 'repertoire' " - Keith Hernandez
by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Jun 5, 2009 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He IS injured
He’s playing with a splint on his hand. Can you really just throw up historical numbers and presume that this won’t at least somewhat affect his performance?
by SupT on Jun 5, 2009 12:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
probably will affect it somewhat
What’s the splint for?
King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president
by Sam Page on Jun 5, 2009 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is there a timetable set for how long Reyes could be sidelined for?
by dulciusEXasperis on Jun 5, 2009 1:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
All-star break
He’ll try to come back sooner, but the team should probably try and hold him back.
King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president
by Sam Page on Jun 5, 2009 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've heard things along the lines of 2-3 weeks to 6 weeks
So he gets back when he gets back, I suppose.
Lopez wants it away, and it's hit deep to left center, Andruw Jones on the run, this one has a chance... home run!!, Mike Piazza!, and the Mets lead 3 to 2!!
-Howie Rose
Gary Thorne=Simply the Best!
by The American Mr.Hockey on Jun 5, 2009 1:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The best part of the Cora injury
is that Cora was set to miss more time until he started wearing a splint he made himself. Like, it was HIS idea.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Jun 5, 2009 2:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I say fook you Mets training staff
I do it myself
by James Kannengieser on Jun 5, 2009 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
he could get Stokes
to weld his finger.
by wobatus on Jun 5, 2009 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
all kidding aside
this injury to Reyes is devestating in a way that numbers can’t really quantify. I am always an optimist but this is a bit hard to take. We all thought rightly that Alex Cora was an utter mediocrity who had been hyped for his “grit” and “leadership” and not his actual playing ability. Now we are supposed to accept that we can win with him in the lineup for six to eight weeks every day. Sorry Omar, my glasses are not that rose colored. There simply has to be consequences for this, and Putz too. Whether its the medical staff, scouts or (heaven hope) Omar himself, somebody’s head has got to roll. Reyes and Wright are the Mets. You fuck around with these guys and you don’t deserve to run this team.
by Endys Game on Jun 5, 2009 4:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think I'm more worried about
Whether we can expect Castillo to hold up, and provide league average production, for those 6-8 weeks Cora won’t be able to fill in him for.
by Gina on Jun 5, 2009 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's what Wilson Valdez is for
"We have to find a way to play better, there's no doubt. Overall. I'm not pointing fingers at anybody. Offense, defense, pitching -- we have to find a way to play better. The reality of this is, coming here to Pittsburgh and being swept -- personally, I feel embarrassed." -- Carlos Beltran
by EMSfan9 on Jun 5, 2009 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Castillo has been pretty darn good this year
and Valdez can spell him. The issue is the Mets handling of their star player.
by Endys Game on Jun 5, 2009 4:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
We all know Omar is gonna send down Valdez
so we can trade for David Eckstein.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Jun 5, 2009 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Unfortunatelly
Jerry Manuel has said he does not see Alex Cora as an every-day player, because he is so valuable in other spots.
That said, Wilson Valdez is not the answer, either.
Omar Minaya once told me an interview that he had interest in signing SS David Eckstein prior to last season.
By now, everyone should know Wilson Valdez IS the answer!
by Michkin on Jun 5, 2009 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What does this mean?
Jerry Manuel has said he does not see Alex Cora as an every-day player, because he is so valuable in other spots.
What does he mean, he’s more valuable on the bench?
by Zwill on Jun 5, 2009 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jerry-logic
Its kind of like hiring Mr. T to teach high school math. “I pity the fool who forgets the +/- on the quadratic equation”.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on Jun 5, 2009 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"I'm gonna bust you up...complex numbers"
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Jun 5, 2009 8:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Because he uses Cora in other spots
Like cook, driver, bellboy, cleaning spikes (Stokes does that), accounting …
by Michkin on Jun 5, 2009 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Stokes & Stokes & Stokes
injury attorney(s), call 303-6360
by James Kannengieser on Jun 6, 2009 12:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Omar once told me he liked pizza
and Eckstein likes pizza, so from what I can gather, Eckstein would bring this team some grittiness and cockiness that’s been missing
All hail Wilson Valdez
by James Kannengieser on Jun 6, 2009 12:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
is Victor Zambrono still around?
The last great panic trade we made.
by Endys Game on Jun 5, 2009 5:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Excellent work, Sam
I know it feels like freakout time with no Reyes, but the fact is the Mets are 28-24 right now. That’s with 36 games of .344 wOBA Reyes and then 16 games without him at all. Obviously, Reyes should be much better than .344 wOBA, but he wasn’t thus far, and the Mets have been hanging in there just fine anyway. If Cora can at all mimic that, not a whole lot changes between what’s happened thus far and what we can expect in the coming weeks. What we can expect is that if Reyes does manage to get healthy, he will provide a significant boost over what the team has been able to accomplish thus far. But for now, it doesn’t seem like a whole lot has changed for this team aside from poor management, both on-field given some of Jerry’s peculiar decisions, and FO, allowing injured players to regiment themselves instead of playing things extra cautious.
Really, in terms of what has happened thus far and what we can expect moving forward, Delgado’s loss is looming larger, since the dropoff been what he had been doing and what Tatis/Murphy are doing is much larger.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on Jun 5, 2009 5:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
But like you said earlier
Miggy can do both. He’s got pop from the SS position as well as decent defense. So he would be a happy medium that would contribute in between what Reyes would at short and Delgado at first.
"We have to find a way to play better, there's no doubt. Overall. I'm not pointing fingers at anybody. Offense, defense, pitching -- we have to find a way to play better. The reality of this is, coming here to Pittsburgh and being swept -- personally, I feel embarrassed." -- Carlos Beltran
by EMSfan9 on Jun 5, 2009 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yikes
UZR’s seemed to go back and forth from year to year on Tejada’s D, but have you seen his ’09 UZR? Yikes.
by jasondg on Jun 5, 2009 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Its bad
But he’s still been 1.4 WAR through about two months. Even if that drops by half for the next four months, its still a 2 WAR player for the rest of the season. I can’t imagine Cora is that .
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on Jun 5, 2009 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I guess it would depend on the cost in prospects
Personally I’d rather just stick with Cora then give up prospects for a stop gap type player, since I doubt they’d resign him. Or at least I’d hope they wouldn’t resign him at his age.
by Gina on Jun 5, 2009 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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