Could Be Worse: Mets 7, Nationals 0

As the old saying goes: you can't lose them all. The Mets have done an awful lot wrong this season, but one thing that has gone mostly right has been the performance of Livan Hernandez, who has done a better than adequate job as the team's fifth starter, even when injuries and ineptness have thrust him into the fourth or even third starter's spot. He hasn't been fantastic or anything, but he has generally given the Mets a good chance to win, and has often been much better than that. John Maine was entirely dreadful on Saturday, while Hernandez came out Sunday and shut down the same Nationals offense for seven innings. He changes speeds -- rotating seamlessly between his slow pitches and his slower ones -- while relying on his defense to do most of the work for him. He hasn't struck out many, and he certainly doesn't miss a lot of bats (just four swinging strikes on Sunday), but he has been adept at getting groundballs when he has needed them and has done a fine job stranding runners.

The bad news in all of this is that his success has usually depended on things that are laragely outside of his control. The Mets' defense has not been good this season, and counting on good things to happen after a ball is put into play is not really a sustainable plan. Hernandez is not going to become a strikeout pitcher at this point in his career, but he has walked relatively few batters this season so his strikeout-to-walk rate is actually respectable at 40-to-20. His tRA is a touch above league average, which is far better than most number-five starters will give you. Whether he can keep up this level of competency remains to be seen, but for now the Mets could do far worse than Hernandez.

While Hernandez was impressive again, the Nationals' pitching staff combined to throw four wild pitches, including two by starter Craig Stammen that plated a Mets run apiece. It was only the second time in Mets' history that an opposing team threw at least four wild pitches. The other time occurred on 7/20/1992, when Dodger pitchers threw five wild pitches in a 9-2 drubbing of the Mets at Shea Stadium. Mets pitchers have accomplished the feat six different times, most recently on 5/6/1997 when Toby Borland and Takashi Kashiwada each threw two wild pitches.

Offensively, the Mets' attack was well-distributed, as every starter excepting Wilson "The Spill" Valdez picked up at least one hit and five different hitters drove in a run. David Wright led the way with two hits, two walks and two steals, while Ryan Church picked up a double and a single in his first game back from the disabled list. Even his outs looked good, as he sent one ball to the warning track in left-center field that was eventually tracked down by Elijah Dukes. Daniel Murphy picked up a couple of hits and a walk as he tries to turn around a disappointing season at the plate. On the positive side of his ledger, Murphy has looked perfectly adroit at first base, turning a nifty 3-6-3 double play on Sunday and generally looking like a seasoned veteran. UZR has him at 4.3 per 150 games, which would be great if his offense at the position weren't so far below the point of acceptability.

After all of this -- the laundry list of injuries, the sweep in Pittsburgh, Jerry Manuel's creative management, Omir Santos -- the Mets are just three games behind the Phillies for first place in the NL East and can come out of this week's series with a share of the lead. Or in a much deeper hole. Tune in and find out!

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Win Probability Added

Big winners: Livan Hernandez, +19.4% WPA, Fernando Martinez, +10.0% WPA
Big losers: Carlos Beltran, -2.8% WPA, Jeremy Reed, -0.1% WPA
Teh aw3s0mest play: Martinez RBI double in first, +11.3% WPA
Teh sux0rest play: Dunn walk in sixth, -4.1% WPA
Total pitcher WPA: +20.4% WPA
Total batter WPA: +29.6% WPA
GWRBI!: Fernando Martinez

Game Thread Roll Call

Nice job by JADDENHOPKINS; his effort in the game thread embiggens us all.