Some Myths Surrounding These Mets
Sean Green is bad or "the new Heilman": Green's 4.33 tRA is basically the same as Stokes' or Takahashi's and is above average. He's getting 56.2% GB, which isn't his usual absurd number, but is still great. His strikeout and walk % are in line with his career norms. The difference? He gave up 3 homers, the same number he gave up in all of 80 innings last year. The homeruns, coupled with some early struggles with command, made a few bad outings look like a breakdown. His ERA last year was already betrayed by the Mariners' terrible up-the-middle infield, making him underrated before the season. He can pitch the same way he has for the past two years and easily finish the year with an ERA <4.
J.J. Putz was good, then got hurt: J.J. Putz was damaged goods all year. No pitcher succeeds with 1 K:BB ratio. He just got exposed in his last three outings and finally accepted an injury that was already there.
David Wright "changed his game" to be more speed than power: Wright's hitting the exact same number of line drives, groundballs, and flyballs he's hit his entire career. His 5.3% HR/FB is probably just a combination of bad luck and Citi Field. His 417.7 average homerun distance is actually up from last year (obviously sample size disclaimer). Maybe he's faster but with 8 CS, I doubt he's sustainable .462 BABIP fast.
Brian Stokes gets skipped over for lesser relievers: I've been guilty of this sentiment, but tRA suggests he's been just as good as Green in nearly the same number of innings. I still feel there were plenty of situations where he should have been brought in instead of Putz, and if he can improve his K% that tRA will be much prettier.
Jeremy Reed is a good defensive replacement in the outfield: Reed has a -1.4 UZR so far this season for the Mets. While I'd like to dismiss that as the insignificant sample size it is, he's -4.2 on his career, mainly due to his Juan Pierre-esque arm. Congrats Jeremy, you're a rangy corner outfielder with no arm, no bat, and -.2 WAR, again. At least he's consistent.
Jon Niese has been a bust so far in AAA: Covered here. He's done nothing since then to prove me right, but his season numbers in Buffalo to date only suggest it's impossible to pitch well on that godforsaken team, not that he's pitched poorly.
David Wright has been streaky this year: Sure, but anymore so than usual? Or any other player for that matter? His OBP hasn't dropped below .371. You be the judge:
The Mets had good depth, but got unlucky with injuries: You really expect them to have a good third-string shortstop??? Sort of. Not good, but better than Ramon Martinez. For some, the quality of your AAA team is indicative of the quality of the Major League Team. Although that's four kinds of nuts, the Mets certainly have demonstrated it helps not to have a total bunch of scrubs on the farm, both for depth, and so you don't ruin two prospects who were considered to make the team out of spring training. Also, depth isn't just the back-up guys, it's also the people you trust from the beginning. Daniel Murphy was prematurely removed from the outfield after "the experiment failed" and Ryan Church got another injury. It's not that the Mets haven't just had bad backups the past two years, it's that they haven't had good complimentary type starters in the first place. Daniel Murphy is the kind of tweener you keep on your bench because he can fill multiple roles with the inevitable injury to the 38 year-old firstbaseman happens. Moises Alou. Luis Castillo. Manderson. Wow, trade for Adam Dunn because he's a power hitting outfielder who can fill in for Delgado? Great idea! Where have I heard that before?
HAHA I WAS RIGHT! Oliver Perez stinks!: Oliver Perez has become a great I-told-you-so moment for many of us, but that's gotten old, and we all have to accept he's with the team for another couple of years. Yes, it was stupid move. Minaya essentially gambled the whole rotation on the hope a historically erratic pitcher would repeat his 2007 season. Still, just as so many Mets fans decided he was once good, too soon have they condemned the contract as a failure. Oliver Perez was good as lately as two years ago, and he wasn't terrible last year. He's immensely talented and this year's version of Oliver Perez clearly isn't right, even for his standards. The velocity drop suggests something's physically wrong, whether it be injury, or conditioning, or whatever. There's still a chance he could come back and be decent, maybe even good. If he's right, the Mets shouldn't be pressured in keeping him out of the rotation for Redding or whoever. I own an Oliver Perez jersey.
John Maine's been good, not great: He's been bad, and I'm worried. He peripherals rank near the bottom of all eligible starting pitchers. He's not getting hitters to chase. I know he's coming off injury, and that I urged patience with him earlier, but the improvements since April have been modest, if existent at all. 6.09 tRA. Just sayin'.
Murphy's good. No maybe he's bad: or maybe he's just neither. His unlucky BABIP suggests he's not this bad, but he may not be the hitting machine. Lets this one play out.
The Mets need to focus on building for next year: There's plenty of time left, so I don't agree with all the doomsaying anyway. Still, this sentiment makes no sense. What do these people want Minaya to do, trade veterans? He'd be fired for giving up. And who's left to trade? Church? I can't imagine that would be much more than a lateral move, as low as his value is. If building for next year means committing to prospects, then the one ML-ready prospect is already playing. Gee and Niese will have to wait for Fatty to be full. Anything else would just be needlessly rushing a player.
2 recs |
29 comments
|
Comments
Rec'd
Well done. Im sure that if you did only the myths yammed about on WFAN, your brain would melt before you could post anything.
Grission and Husart - that is either the non-union Mexican equivelant of "Starsky and Hutch" or the key to winning the World Series.
by IanB in MD on Jun 9, 2009 8:08 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
putz
was good and then got injured. problem is the injury occured before this year.
Murphy had a flukey high babip last year in the majors, and now it is low. Somewhere in between, but he got annointed as an everyday too soon. Rob Neyer wrote about this.
Perez has had stretches this bad before, hell, whole seasons, but he did have some pretty bad 5 start strecthes last year. Rob Neyer wrote about this too. Not that he is the be all and end all, but he would likely say Murphy was overrated coming into this year, and perez is “underrated” now.
Didn’t Ollie just seem kinda fat and happy with his contract? I know, judgmental. I mean, Livan looks pretty fat and happy too, although slop ball ain’t exactly Ollie’s game. Anyone rememeber Mickey Lolich (pre-Mets.). And El Squid, of course, was an awesome rolypoly pitcher. Ollie also had the WBC thing (so did Putz). That WBC screwed up Wright’s power stroke, Putz’s elbow and Ollie’s dominance of good hitting teams! Kidding.
I hope Church can come back and be the player he was early last season or in 2006/7 with the nats. His concussion problems last year were brought home last night when i read that A’s rookie Aaron Cunningham got beaned by Swarzak. They left him in and he scored on a double, then they pulled him. A concussion was confirmed later. Why would any team leave in a guy who was beaned (from what I read the ball went straight up in the air after hitting him, and he looked woozy talking to the trainer)? Obviously, Church wasn’t beaned. I dunno, i think about Wayne Chrebet (different sport), Tony Conigliaro, god forbid Ray Chapman.
by wobatus on Jun 9, 2009 9:41 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Ollie was never this bad
Not even in his seasons with Pittsburgh when he got demoted.
by Lunkwill Fook on Jun 9, 2009 9:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
His fip is 6.11 this year
It was 6.25 with the Pirates in 2005 in 20 starts in 2005.
His tRA* (regressed tRA) is 4.87 this year with the Mets. It was 5.09 last year. In 2006 with the ’rates it was 6.10. In 2005 it was 5.49.
From April 24 through 6/2 last year, Ollie had 8 starts, 38 and a third, and gave up 10 homers, struck out 29 but walked 36. he gave up 30 earned runs but 35 runs, so his earned run average was 7, his run average was 8+, and a couple of “good” starts were tossed in there. But the 6.8 to 8.45 k/bb in that 7 start stretch is arguably worse than the 8.31 to 8.72 k and bb rates this year. A .8 k/bb ratio versus a .95.
Ollie has gone through putrid strecthes, there can be no doubt. he also can be brilliant. The five starts this year all came at the beginning of the year, magnifying it.
The velocity drop is obviously a concern. But he has had awful stretches, even with his velocity.
So maybe not QUITE as putrid, results wise, as his 5 start run this year, but pretty close.
by wobatus on Jun 9, 2009 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
notice also
the velocity drop isn’t huge, although even small drops can be disaster for a pitcher. He has never come back to his 2004 velocity. But he is throwing fewer sliders and more change-ups. And the change ups he is throwing, are 85 mph to his fastballs mid 89s. Last year it was 91 to 80.
of course, maybe the slow fastballs are being recorded as change-ups this year. But the sliders are down from 27% to 17%.
by wobatus on Jun 9, 2009 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think part of the reason the sliders are down are his decreased command of his fastball and part of THAT is the decreased velocity causing him to try to nibble more lest he get hammered.
I think the key for Ollie will be the fastball velocity. If he can get it back to acceptable low 90’s velocity, he can be “effectively wild” like he always is. If he can’t…. well, he’ll never have enough control to survive being a soft tosser.
by Lunkwill Fook on Jun 9, 2009 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The problem is there's not a lot of reason to think he'll get back to low 90s
Since it’s been declining slightly for years he might just be an 89/90 mph pitcher now. Although I do think some of those change ups are just really slow fastballs and I would hope that’s something he can correct. But mostly I agree with wobatus, he has never been this bad but there’s been enough red flags the last few years that it’s possible that even if he doesn’t stay bad he’s not to improve enough to be even as good as he was last year.
by Gina on Jun 9, 2009 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
A couple of my personal issues.
Sort of. Not good, but better than Ramon Martinez. For some, the quality of your AAA team is indicative of the quality of the Major League Team.
You think many teams have a AAA shortstop/non prospect that can hit? I guarantee you, all those guys are up in the majors. The Mets got screwed because Ramon Martinez, who has been a no hit, all field shortstop his entire life suddenly forgot how to field. Which is fine because we picked up Valdez who is exactly what you want in triple A as a third stringer. But to think you can bring up a career minor league shortstop and have him plug into a major league lineup and contribute is asking a bit much.
As far as Maine is concerned, I don’t know what to think yet. Sometimes he seems to have the strike outs going, sometimes he doesn’t (I’m ignoring last start as I’m fully convinced it was a result of having the shits for a week). I guess we really won’t know until the season is over.
by Lunkwill Fook on Jun 9, 2009 10:05 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
To be fair to Ramon, he had only a handful of games in the minors after his hernia
and was rusty. He had only the one horrid fielding game, I think.
by SupT on Jun 9, 2009 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
also
for many organizations, having Ramon Martinez as your #3 shortstop isn’t so good. For a franchise that has the 2nd best shortstop in baseball who has averaged 158 games a season over the past 4 years and is 26 years old, it’s just fine. Not having a plan for a Delgado/Alou type guy to get hurt is just dumb. Not having a plan for Jose Reyes getting hurt is a decent gamble, and one the Mets unfortunately lost.
by cjmulrain on Jun 9, 2009 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would think a counterpoint
Is that a team with our resources, and who has a player like Jose who has a history of wearing down and was playing in the WBC this year should have a better option. Especially since Cora was signed primarily to be a replacement in case Castillo couldn’t return to an above replacement level player, and not really a long-term option in case of an injury to Reyes.
by Gina on Jun 9, 2009 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i think the plan
if Delgado went down was to plug in Murphy. Who, baring some great OF play, was the man to take over 1b next year anyway.
by gbaked on Jun 9, 2009 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right
but then who plays left?
King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president
by Sam Page on Jun 9, 2009 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, allegedly
But in the Indians minor league system
by James Kannengieser on Jun 9, 2009 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well...
I would think tatis was their plan.
F-Bomb was prob in their thinking as well…
I mean, the plan was for Delgado to play a season.
by gbaked on Jun 9, 2009 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that may have been the plan
But the problem is that’s kind of a crappy plan.
by Gina on Jun 9, 2009 8:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I never got the love for John Maine
Other than his first half in 2007, what is the evidence he is a consistent number two or three starter. He was good in 2006 but only pitched 90 innings, he struggled in the second half of 2007, and he only threw 140 innings last year. He hasn’t demonstrated the durability and performance over a full season to justify the trust the Mets have put in him for the past three years.
If he was the number five starter I would understand. But the organization has been relying on him to be a top three guy, and I don’t see that happening.
by Reg Dunlop on Jun 9, 2009 10:37 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Cerrone thinks Heilman's got "teh curse of teh number 48".
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Jun 9, 2009 12:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I own and Ollie jersey too!
And great article.
Jerry Manuel...stop being....stupid...
by MetsGeek on Jun 9, 2009 12:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
So do we even have any idea when Perez will make his way back to the bigs?
I don’t even know whats going on with this guy anymore.
by dulciusEXasperis on Jun 9, 2009 1:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
pita santos
King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president
by Sam Page on Jun 9, 2009 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rec'd
Some of these, I was completely aware of and are absolutely true. Way too many people gave up on Sean Green after a month. Murph’s a tweener who’s shown both his best and worst now. Ollie’s obviously stunk. Omir Santos is obviously Omir Santos.
The one I’m not entirely convinced of is Maine. I’m not saying he’s a #2 starter or anything, but I do think he showed some cogent improvements in his second month this season, but a lot of them were wiped away with one extremely poor outing. Its true that the organization have been far too reliant on him, and that he has displayed some significant durability issues, but if he were a #3/#4 starter instead of a #2/#3 starter, I think it would be a bit easier to continue being patient with him. I don’t think he’s so far gone that a quality second half would surprise me, but given his career scope, a middling one wouldn’t either.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on Jun 9, 2009 2:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Is there a list
of these “good” 3rd-string AAA shortstops? Can’t think of any non-prospects off the top of my head. Help?
by gogomets on Jun 9, 2009 4:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
well wilson valdez is probably an example
I don’t think he means good as in like ml average, but good as in not sub replacement level.
by Gina on Jun 9, 2009 8:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know...
I was one of the people in the pro corner for the Perez re-signing(Although I think I said for a max of $10 mil a year) and I think that while overpaying and bidding aganist themselves the signing still isn’t that bad.
Its a 3 year deal that still has 2 1/2 left lets judge at the end.
To all those who are saying they should have signed Lowe I’d wait til years 3&4 when despite being very durable and a ground ball pitcher hes gonna be a 39 year old pitcher earning $15 mil a season.
I just think with signing Lowe the 1-2 years of the contract don’t make up for the 3-4.
But we’ll see.
I also said the Mets should have signed Adam Dunn and traded nothing for Javier Vazquez and look how bad those two have been….oh wait…damn!
by Ohpityme on Jun 13, 2009 6:56 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

by 


















