More Thoughts On The Jeff Francoeur Trade
by Sam Page on Jul 11, 2009 7:00 AM EDT
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PrintAfter reflecting more on the Jeff Francoeur trade and considering the perspectives of the defenders of the move, I'm more convinced it makes no sense. The main arguments for the trade seem to be following:
- Jeff Francoeur is a rangier defender, which suits Citi Field. (From Minaya himself)
- Ryan Church is only an average player/nothing special
- Jeff Francoeur plays lots of games.
- Jeff Francoeur is young/has potential
- The Mets needed a shakeup!!!1
Number one is patently false. According to UZR, Ryan Church's range has been worth a career +12.9 runs in rightfield. Francoeur's range has cost his team -2.4 runs. Church's range has been 5.9 runs better than Francoeur this year alone. Sure, that's just one metric, but RZR agrees. So does plus/minus, etc. etc. Yes, Francoeur has a great arm, but so does Church, and Church was a historically better overall fielder.
What about my second-favorite argument, "Ryan Church is just average." That's a statement not an argument. Yea, Ryan Church is average...and Jeff Francoeur is awful. Bobby Parnell is an average reliever...so let's trade him for Horacio Ramirez. Mike Pelfrey is a tall white dude from Ohio, so let's put on Bill Cosby sweaters and commit grand theft auto!
My favorite argument, a line straight from Minaya's press conference, is: "One thing we like about Francoeur is the amount of games that he plays." Hey if the Mets wanted someone who could play everyday, why didn't they just trade for me? I'm both: A. significantly worse than Ryan Church and B. not prone to injuries. The whole concept of replacement level is that a player, playing any amount of time, is better than Jeff Francoeur playing infinite amount of time. 100 AB for a good player and 400 AB for a bad player is always better than 500 AB for a bad player. I've changed some words in the original Minaya quote, but I think the meaning is the same:
I remember an excerpt from Baseball Prospectus, profiling Jeff Francoeur before the season, that seems sadly ironic in light of Minaya's words:
If he cannot make these adjustments, even his above-average defense will not keep him on the field for 162 games on a team seriously trying to contend.
Yea, that's why the Braves benched him. They want to contend. That's why Francoeur was on the verge of playing 0 games a season (well, I guess not with teams like the Mets around.)
I'll skip number four for now and just dismiss number 5. I understand the need to make a change, nothing could be worse than what we've been watching right? Right? Oh, Jeff Francoeur. I don't care if Jerry Manuel didn't like the guy, a manager's whims shouldn't dictate personnel moves.
On the issues of Francoeur's upside, there's a glimmer of hope. If somehow, some way, Francoeur can get back to his 2007 levels of offensive and defensive production, he'll be a useful player. That happening, however, is a very slim chance. Maybe, maybe, if you really consider it a lost season, that is a risk worth taking. But I don't see that. Church is just too much better than Francoeur with a similar contract situation. The odds that Francoeur, a player openly against walking and taking pitches, suddenly improves are slim.
Surprisingly, despite the amount of outside criticism of this trade, the fans and local media seem pretty gung-ho. I suspect the reason might support my Sports media/News media comparison from the other day. Most Mets fans, and maybe Omar Minaya, remember the Sports Illustrated cover and the ridiculous dubbing of him as "The Natural". Mets fans remember Jeff Francoeur the fantasy baseball draft pick with the good average and the power potential. Omar Minaya, a great scout (not such a good GM), sees the athleticism. This team is built on myths. Frenchy's got more range, even though he doesn't. Santos should catch for defense, even though Baseball Prospectus rates him eight runs worse than Castro and he can't block the plate.
In that aforementioned Sports media/News media comparison I talked about Jon Stewart going on Crossfire and telling the hosts how their shallow, self-congratulating "debate" was playing into the strategies of politicians and misguiding Americans. Watching SNY's own Crossfire, Loudmouths, talk about this trade and drop a Mickey Mantle comparison and agree with Omar's assessment that Francoeur has better range, I wish I could go pull a Jon Stewart on them. Seriously, stop. All of this talk about potential, shake-ups, and athleticism is just noise.
.280 OBP.
.634 OPS.
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His OBP is worse than Church's batting average
is there anyone in the organization that reads stats? oh yeah they can’t read.
"Put it in the books. The Mets are the 2006 National League Eastern Divison champions"--Howie Rose
The sad part is
That placing the giant rock in the batters box is probably as likely to get the team a walk as Francoeur.
"If I ever decide to do a book, I've already got the title...The bases were loaded and so was I."
-Jim Fregosi
by Stephen Schmidt on Jul 11, 2009 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions
The 100/400 VS 500 argument is assuming that Jeff Francoer plays at his worst(Not a terrible assumption granted)but the reason for trading for Francoer isn’t for 500 ab’s of a bad player you can bash the trade but the reasoning behind it is that Jeff Francoer fulfills his potential which would be 500 ab’s from a good player which would obviously beat the 100/400 ratio you posted.
If that makes sense?
Is there any chance he's been unlucky?
Francoeuer’s numbers looked very promising through age 23. Apply a typical aging curve at that point and you would have something there.
So what happened over the last season and a half? Well, it certainly doesn’t look as though he’s made the progress you would want, but it looks to me like some of the decline is due to a lower average on balls in play, without much change in types of balls hit.
BABIP LD%
.337 15.4 2005
.284 17.8 2006
.338 18.1 2007
.274 16.7 2008
.275 19.4 2009
Obviously, his good 2005 and 2007 years were statistical flukes as well, but he’s probably not really as bad as he has looked in 2008 and 2009. His average BABIP seems to be around .300, with a career LD% of 19.3%.
So he’s not really the sub replacement level player people are treating him as now, nor the guy who fangraphs valued at $10.1M in 2005 and $14.7M in 2007. His true talent is probably really around $4M better than replacement level right now. That’s less than Church averaged over 2005-2008, but it might be more than a post concussion syndrome Church is worth in his 30s. Church just seems to have lost power, there is no decline in his hit type rates, and his BABIP is still high.
by acerimusdux on Jul 11, 2009 7:57 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Rec'd
Church just doesn’t have much power at all at this point. His HR/FB% dropped from 16.2% from last year (his norm) to 3.3% this year. I don’t see Church’s potential to be what he was at the beginning of 2008, but I still don’t like the trade.
Trying to believe is my full-time occupation.
Look at Francoeur's HR/FB though
Just posted at the bottom of the page.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Jul 11, 2009 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions
The problem isn't that he doesn't make enough contact
He’s not an absurd strikeout machine like some of the big TTO guys, the problem is that he just doesn’t walk enough to support a 15-20 K%.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Jul 11, 2009 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions
but there is zero evidence that Jeff Francoer will ever fulfill that "potential"
My word, Omar didn’t even know the first thing about the “player” Got his age wrong, contract status etc. I bet Omar doesn’t know that Francoer has a lousy OBP. And Francoer says OBP isn’t important because its not on the scoreboard. That is the guy I want on a struggling team???
This immediately reminded me of one thing...
Homer: Not a bear in sight. The Bear Patrol must be working like a charm.
Lisa: That’s spacious reasoning, Dad.
Homer: Thank you, dear.
Lisa: By your logic I could claim that this rock keeps tigers away.
Homer: Oh, how does it work?
Lisa: It doesn’t work.
Homer: Uh-huh.
Lisa: It’s just a stupid rock.
Homer: Uh-huh.
Lisa: But I don’t see any tigers around, do you?
[Homer thinks of this, then pulls out some money]
Homer: Lisa, I want to buy your rock.
[Lisa refuses at first, then takes the exchange]
"I was so frustrated [Saturday], I [could have said] anything," ~Oliver Perez
looked him up on baseball reference
The difference is that Ellis Valentine was actually good with the Expos. Francoeur has been mostly crap with the Braves.
But if you’re saying that the Mets should expect about as much out of Frenchy as the got out of Valentine, I agree.
Somehow, a chain of events unfolded that put Steve Phillips in a professional broadcast booth Sunday night so he could rip Carlos Beltran. Try to explain that in any other terms.
by Greenpoint Ian on Jul 11, 2009 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions
That graph is beyond hilarious
Now can we never speak of Jeff franceour again? The guy is a punchline. Can I just refer to him as lastings milledge until he’s cut?
by HotChipWillBreakYourLegs on Jul 11, 2009 10:37 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Graph = graphic
Haven’t mastered mobile commenting yet
by HotChipWillBreakYourLegs on Jul 11, 2009 10:38 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
can we just start calling him "The Rock"
i think it’s fitting given his uselessness and his stupidity (anyone who can’t understand, or refuses to understand, the benefits of OBP is stupid in my book).
by englishgrey on Jul 11, 2009 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions
only if his batting music is The Rock’s theme (from wwe)
by agbayanifan on Jul 11, 2009 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions
you can refer to him as anything other than lastings milledge
King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president
Why the downer?
Its not like Church was doing great after his concussions.
It may work or it won’t. Church wasn’t suddenly going to become the player Minaya thought he would when he traded for him.
Maybe the change of scenery will do both the players some good.
by Outside Observer on Jul 11, 2009 10:58 AM EDT reply actions
Maybe not.
But Church wasn’t going to become a big home run hitter either. And we don’t know how much the concussions have effected his game. Thats never going away.
I think Francoeur has more upside. Only because of the concussions.
by Outside Observer on Jul 11, 2009 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions
Francouer has 5 HRs. He doesn't play at Citi Field.
Church has the same out of XBHs in 100 less ABs. Church has a higher BA than Francouer’s OBP.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
Yeah but Turner Field
Is nearly as specious.
I think all the players coached by Hojo tend to have a good approach. Thats what Francoeur lacks. So Hojo could help him to fulfil his promise.
It will interesting to see if Church’s BA starts to go down and Francoeur’s goes up .
by Outside Observer on Jul 11, 2009 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions
Turner Field is nowhere near as spacious
not that I think it will affect their BA that much
King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president
I might have a faulty memory but
it seems to me one of the big problems this season has been guys going to the plate just hacking without an approach. This has lead to, well you know what is has lead to. Adding Francoeur just doesn’t make any sense.
They compared Frenchy to Mickey Mantle? Seriously?
And it was about something other than that they both wear/wore #7?
Kill me. Kill me now.
can I compare Frenchy to Gehrig?
Gehrig never played 162 games. Is Frenchy better than Gehrig?
sure, why not…
"If on-base percentage is so important, then why don't they put it on the scoreboard?"
It is a gamble
and it is not all that bad of one
1) Mets are in a spot where basically the season is over if some big things dont happen
2) Church is probably not that big thing
3) If Francouer bats at his old good levels, the Mets will have gotten a nice bat which may help them stay in the race till the calvary comes back
4) If Francouer bats terribly for the rest of the year, it is unlikely this will have much of an overall negative impact on the Mets as a whole. The Mets with Church and minus all the injured players would probably still lose a lot of games.
Basically, the Mets are in a position where they can choose something that has an 20% chance of success and 80% chance of horrific failure, or something that has a 1% chance of success and 99% chance of regular failure. It is possible to argue about the percentages, and also what shape the Mets season actually was in. Maybe this move was a little panicky, or maybe it was caused by some in house updates on the injured stars. If those stars arent coming back for a while, though, then the move cant be all that bad because it doesnt really matter.
well and let me add
All of this assumes Minaya’s willing to cut bait after one bad half-season. If Francoeur is the “plan” going forward…ugh.
King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president
I doubt it.
But no big trades are going to happen till after the all-stars game.
by Outside Observer on Jul 11, 2009 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions
Exactly
This is the fundamental issue that I’ve noticed as a pattern in all of these “bad decision” justifications. Everything stupid Omar does that gets put in these optimistic lenses assumes that he’ll do the correct thing later down the line if things don’t work out. It just ain’t real. Omar is stupid. He’s setting himself up for failure. His decision making is awful, and for whatever marginal gamble this is that might have some small chance of paying off on, there are at least five times as many bad decisions he’s given himself the opportunity to make.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Jul 11, 2009 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions
But this is probably Minaya's plan for RF going forward.
And that’s failure in and of itself.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
Agreed.
Francoeur’s having an abysmal, lost season. But I’m just not seeing this as an utterly terrible trade. If the Mets were, say, 5 over .500, rather than where they are today, I think this would be an unequivocally terrible trade. But the Mets needed to take a gamble, and, honestly, this is just not that high-risk. Church wasn’t really going to be an integral part of the next great Mets team; he’s already 30, and he has not given any indication that he is regaining his form from early 2008. And I like Church.
If Francoeur does what everyone here expects him to do, in the end, the Mets will finish poorly, maybe 1-2 games worse than they would have been with Church. But really, there is no difference between an 81-win team and a 79-win team, and the Mets, as currently constructed, weren’t going anywhere.
My point: this is not the Castro trade, which was unequivocally bad. I actually think this trade may show some degree of situational awareness.
by sjohnson125 on Jul 11, 2009 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions
This argument only works
So long as it doesn’t extend to next year assuming the “Francoeur gamble” doesn’t pay off. If that 80% chance he sucks is the one that turns to be reality, then he needs to be non-tendered. So what happens if he hits .280 / .300 / .390? That would not be a tough decision for many people. But Omar’s basis for decision making isn’t the same rational process as most people’s.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Jul 11, 2009 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Adding to the list of people in this organization that I cannot stand
John “What about this?” Ricco
Everyone is entitled to be stupid, but Jerry abuses the privilege.
just got a text message from my sister
It asked, “why did we trade for the worst outfielder in baseball?”
My sister is a pretty big baseball fan, but I don’t think she’s all that into sabermetrics. Nonetheless, she didn’t buy any of the Baghdad Bob-esque praise for this deal coming from SNY. She’s too smart for that.
Another possibility is that she was getting taunts from her roommate’s boyfriend, who is a big Braves fan.
Somehow, a chain of events unfolded that put Steve Phillips in a professional broadcast booth Sunday night so he could rip Carlos Beltran. Try to explain that in any other terms.
by Greenpoint Ian on Jul 11, 2009 12:01 PM EDT reply actions
she should get her roommate to break up with that guy
"If on-base percentage is so important, then why don't they put it on the scoreboard?"
omir santos=
Not the worst hitter on the mets anymore. That is depressing
by mets81 on Jul 11, 2009 12:07 PM EDT via mobile reply actions 1 recs
Depressing indeed.
We've got ourselves a ball club, the Mets of New York town!
by kingcritical on Jul 11, 2009 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions
What's sad is that Omir Santos is currently a logical candidate for the #5 spot in the batting order.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
Hey, here's another great set of declining stats that shows how crappy Francoeur is!
So I’m looking for some sort of silver lining to this when I came across this fun little number. Enjoy guys.
Jeff Francouer – HR/FB
2005 – 10.1%
2006 – 8.2%
2007 – 7.1%
2008 – 5.0%
2009 – 4.7%
Poor Frenchy, just when it looked like his HR/FB might finally be bottoming off, he gets dumped into CitiField. Shame for him, but not as much as for us.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Jul 11, 2009 6:11 PM EDT reply actions
Had a nice debut so far, though..
Drove in 2 runs…..A Concept that is currently lost on this team.
You guys deserve this little graphic
You have my condolences. What an awful baseball player.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
Is that the spaghetti monster on the rock's hat?
Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.
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