Hope For Francoeur Lies On The Bottom Line
The Church-for-Francoeur trade ignited a brief but powerful rage within me that resulted in a slew of snarky yet cathartic posts, here, here, and here. It was a perfect storm of failure. The Mets traded for the laughingstock of the saber-inclined blogosphere, a player who uttered possibly the dumbest baseball-related quote ever. Additionally, I witnessed grossly misinformed talking heads on SNY calling it a win for the Mets. This wasn't a big deal I suppose - I can get over Chris Carlin loving this trade because I don't put any stock into his awful quips on "Beer Money", much less his opinion about roster construction. I also saw many widely read Mets bloggers reacting positively to the deal. Even some of the best were refusing to call it a big win for the Braves. I've since come off my soapbox of fury, from which I reined fire and brimstone about the trade to anyone who would listen. Witnessing Francoeur's 2 hits and admittedly sweet-looking swing at Citi Field on Sunday helped a bit. It was at the game that I tried to come up with a non-cliché reason why we should have some hope for Frenchy.
Almost all of the reasons why we should supposedly be optimistic about Francoeur have been documented - he's young, stays healthy, has upside, his game is suited for Citi Field, has a huge wingspan, etc. Most of these are silly and Sam covered them nicely. I also don't buy the "pride" argument. That is, Francoeur doesn't seem like a guy fazed by the shock of being traded. He seemingly has no shame. When sent down to the minors last season, after hitting .234/.287/.374 in 362 plate appearances for the Braves, his response was one of annoyance rather than embarrassment.
"I was upset [Thursday] night when I got home," Francoeur said. "[Friday] morning, when I woke up, it was anger that I was feeling."... "I'm disappointed with the decision and how the whole process went down."
You would think such an action might be a wake-up call, a sign that he needs to change his free-swinging, no-walking approach. No, the demotion was an affront to the cocksure Francoeur. He continued his awful strategy at the plate after being promoted back to the big club, apparently learning nothing from his trip to the farm. That leaves me with one last reason for hope that Francoeur will work to improve his anti-OBP mindset - money.
The best way to explain this is through a story about a former co-worker who we will call Tim. Tim was a smart guy, attended a fine college, and was relatively competent at his job. Tim's biggest problem was that he wasn't a people person, to say the least. In fact, he was unpleasant to work with due to his horrible personality. When another co-worker asked Tim why he was such a jerk, he replied (paraphrasing), "when I'm paid to be nice to people, that's when I'll change." A few months pass, the economy goes into the tank, and corporate is looking to make some "targeted workforce reductions." Management discusses some downsizing candidates and, surprise, surprise, Tim gets the axe. At his poorly attended farewell happy hour, Tim says that he was told in his exit interview that his "poor workplace candor" was a major contributing factor to the decision. Turns out it would have paid to be nicer to people. Francoeur is Tim. If Frenchy does not stop his hacktastic approach in the 2nd half, and put up some numbers more appropriate for a corner outfielder, there is a strong chance he will be non-tendered at season's end. Non-tendered players generally do not command the big bucks. For a player who turned down a contract offer in the neighborhood of 6 years, ~$27 million prior to the 2007 season, it would be quite a fall from grace.
From his time as a schoolboy legend playing both baseball and football, Francoeur had his life mapped out. First round draft pick. Promoted to the majors at age 21. Sports Illustrated cover. Next comes the pretty wife, the millions of dollars, and the happily ever after. Except the millions of dollars part looks like a longshot right now, save what he's earned thus far. At this point, the problem isn't his beautiful swing - it's that he doesn't realize it's a good thing to not swing once in awhile. In fact, it's a great thing. He looks destined to pop up with a new team every couple years, desperately hoping to finally translate his talent to on-field production. However, if he can raise his putrid 3.7% BB% and lower his absurd 58% swing %, it might lead to an arbitration offer or a contract from a team encouraged by progress.
Reasonable suggestions from coaches couldn't make him change his approach. A trip to the minors couldn't. Here's hoping the simple allure of cash will motivate to Francoeur re-evaluate his batter's box attitude in the 2nd half.
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Comments
Good post
and more encouraging than you might think. At least his agent should be going through this thought process. I’m behind Frenchy. For now.
by deadspy3 on Jul 14, 2009 6:42 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Very good read
One thing you have to remember about Francouer, is that in his 5 seasons in the majors so far, he has been worth at least 3 WAR twice. He is only 25, and despite his seemingly awful approach at the plate, the potential is there. He just needs something, like money, to help him realize it.
Derosa.
by vivaelpujols on Jul 14, 2009 7:14 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I hated this
trade from the start, we didn’t really upgrade anywhere except in power. I liked Church as our everyday right fielder. If we could have gotten Francouer for one of our other outfielders (other than Beltran of course), I could have given us a win. But First-pitch Francouer is NOT the answer.
by DavidE on Jul 14, 2009 7:37 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
soapbox of fury, for the win.
We've got ourselves a ball club, the Mets of New York town!
by kingcritical on Jul 14, 2009 8:08 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
it was either that or "pulpit of pugilism"
by James Kannengieser on Jul 14, 2009 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
you made the right choice.
We've got ourselves a ball club, the Mets of New York town!
by kingcritical on Jul 14, 2009 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dump point, but if your a talking head on SNY, your not allowed to say anything bad about the Mets. Or at the very least its frowned upon.
by WebBard on Jul 14, 2009 8:19 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I liked Mr Berg's
non-party line re: the lack of an overall plan though.
by deadspy3 on Jul 14, 2009 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Unfortunately
our manager isn’t the type to provide him with this type of encouragement.
by JoshNY on Jul 14, 2009 8:58 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
What’s going to be amusing/depressing is this offseason when we need a catcher and a 1st baseman and fans are clamoring to also replace Castillo at 2B, all while giving right-field outright to a replacement-level player.
by OlStubbleBeard on Jul 14, 2009 9:00 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Again
Church for Francoeur is not going to be basis for success on this season. We need Reyes AND Delgado AND Beltran back. We need Maine healthy AND effective. We need Perez back AND somewhat reliable. And we need either Putz or Wagner back with ONE of them being reliable and healthy and effective.
Ryan Church was not all that great or reliable. Frankly, Francoeur is going to be a lot more interesting to watch, not a significant downgrade and potentially a good upgrade. But he is NOT the focus of our success.
You may have Utley, Howard, Rollins, Hamels, and Lidge...but, WE have Fernando Tatis, baby. Two grand slames in one inning. Hello??
by ZaBlanc on Jul 14, 2009 9:19 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
"not a significant downgrade and potentially a good upgrade"
Do you have some kind of argument for why anyone besides your gut should believe this claim? Because the empirical evidence all appears to disagree with it.
by anonymous on Jul 14, 2009 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The difference over the remainder of the season between the 2 players looks to be about 1 WAR.
Every piece of evidence that we have points to this being a bad deal (and I don’t agree with the trade one bit), but their is room for improvement in Francoeur’s overall game that I truly belive that Ryan Church does not possess.
All discussion is dependant on a guy who has been in the league for 4 years reinventing himself.
I would call it a “downgrade” and an “unlikely but potentially sufficient upgrade”.
It’s a gamble with a guy (Church) that they were likely going to non-tender in the offseason. That doesn’t make it bright or correct, nor does it mean that the Front Office appropriately valued their player, but if this doesn’t work out, I don’t see it being the difference between overall team success and failure.
Everyone is entitled to be stupid, but Jerry abuses the privilege.
by AnthonyR on Jul 14, 2009 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This
Basically, this is where I sit on the deal. Nice write-up.
"He's definitely mixing it into his repertoire. That's French for 'repertoire' " - Keith Hernandez
by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Jul 14, 2009 1:47 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
When you post
I wonder what I must sacrifice to the Gods to have an ignore feature.
"I got my pregnant wife (the Yankee fan) with me. Hoping my kid learns to kick her everytime the Mets score." -Schifftis-
by future on Jul 14, 2009 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I wonder since Frenchie
has such extremly bad plate discipline, that it’s more likely that he could improve than a player that is already league average. Kind of like Jose Reyes whose walk rates were 4.5, 2.2, and 3.7 before changing his approach and jumping up to 7.6 while idenitfying pitches to drive. The numbers hinted at Reyes’ potential but stats couldn’t predict the change in approach, while older, maybe that will happen with Francoeur as I could see money driving him to finally try to make adjustments.
by Sokojoe on Jul 14, 2009 10:00 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I was encouraged by what he was saying
At his press conference, acknowledging without reservation that he needs to improve his approach. Sort of an eager schoolboy. He was pretty cheerful at what should have been the most painful moment of his life – sent packing from the place he was supposed to be a great star, and a star forever. Which, paradoxically, makes me think he sees his situation clearly — knowing he’s on the edge of losing it all, and happy for a new chance to right things before he’s non-tendered.
So I find myself kind of pulling for him. And in this new Frenchy-friendly frame of mind, I’m inclined to think that maybe the famous stupidest quote in baseball history was a regrettable moment of bluster – just posturing to cover his embarrassment at being asked to explain a glaring weakness. Maybe he doesn’t actually believe it’s unimportant.
Or, I’m just a textbook example of what fandom does to a person’s perspective.
by SupT on Jul 14, 2009 10:13 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
He's already changed his approach this year
He’s focusing on contact.
His contact rate is up, his Ks and BBs are down. He’s hitting a ton of flyballs but his linedrives and Iso. are down.
He’s trying new stuff and it’s not working so far.
by OlStubbleBeard on Jul 14, 2009 10:22 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Here's hoping.
But here’s expecting the worst, because he’s given me no reason to think that our hopes will be answered.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Jul 14, 2009 11:01 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think I am most horrified that we're going to rely on Howard Johnson
to fix him. When Church came back from his injury, he looked awesome from working with the Mets hitting instructors in Florida.
"I got my pregnant wife (the Yankee fan) with me. Hoping my kid learns to kick her everytime the Mets score." -Schifftis-
by future on Jul 14, 2009 1:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
He tends to jam himself
on pitches that over the middle. That’s the problem I see. And there’s some inside-outing going on which will take power away. And his walk rate is even lower than last year and ’07 (12 in 84 games!).
He had a couple nice swings the other day at least. If he can somehow scrounge out .280 with an obp of about .320 – .330 we’d have to take that. The sad thing is, the move will be praised for those mediocre numbers.
by David G on Jul 14, 2009 2:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I wonder
if we can trust the FO to non-tender him. Even if he doesn’t improve over the rest of the season, I worry that they might be caught up on his “upside” and consider him to be a viable plan for next year, and that he might end up blocking a different acquisition that would actually be an upgrade (Rios?).
by Mount17 on Jul 14, 2009 2:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
My guess is he’s already penciled into RF for 2010.
by OlStubbleBeard on Jul 14, 2009 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rudy Jaramillo
I understand that much to the Braves displeasure, Fracoeure went outside the Braves organization to work with Rudy Jaramillo during the offseason. Jaramillo has worked magic with Andruw Jones, who probably put the bug in his ear.
"Never throw a slider to The Glider."
- Ed Charles, No. 5
by The Glider on Jul 14, 2009 2:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Could be a number of reasons why things didn't go right for Frenchy in Atlanta...
There could be a number of reasons why things don’t go right for him here.
It’s not like he’s gonna be batting cleanup here when Beltran gets back anyways. So it’s not like a give a crap.
If the Mets can fix this guy his upside is better than Church’s. Adds another 100 RBIs to the lineup so why the hell not?
Not like Church was playing much here anyways.
by Chickendirt on Jul 14, 2009 5:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
How does he add another 100 RsBI?
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
by Evan_S on Jul 14, 2009 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's what I want to know.
How does someone bring an RBI total with them from team to team?
"We have to find a way to play better, there's no doubt. Overall. I'm not pointing fingers at anybody. Offense, defense, pitching -- we have to find a way to play better. The reality of this is, coming here to Pittsburgh and being swept -- personally, I feel embarrassed." -- Carlos Beltran
by EMSfan9 on Jul 14, 2009 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
RBIs are transferrable
You just have to declare them to the clubhouse attendant before unpacking.
by David G on Jul 15, 2009 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And how does he have 100 MORE RBIs than Church?
And who cares, anyway?
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Jul 14, 2009 8:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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