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Looking For The Next Jeff Francoeur

Gordon Beckham laughs at Josh Field's job security.

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

Gordon Beckham laughs at Josh Field's job security.

No, the title isn't a joke, nor have I changed my stance on the trade since my original frustration. Instead, I think my ability to go from frustration to apathy very quickly has helped me see the trade for what it is: a gamble with incredibly low odds, a somewhat-high price, but a very tangible upside. Another interesting facet of the trade that has emerged since the dust settled is the general acceptance by the fans. Only a few are calling Francoeur a white flag, despite him being so much worse than Church. Maybe most have already given up on the season, but I'd think Francoeur's somewhat-dubious track record as a major league regular gives the illusion of a lateral move. If the Mets had flipped Church for a prospect or two they'd probably be better off, but it would seem much more like a firesale, the end of a season.

That being said, I have been toying around of the idea of the Mets going after more players similar to Jeff Francoeur, mid-20s arbitration types, who have fallen out of favor with their respective organizations. I'm not looking for the next Church/Francoeur trade, but the next, as Christina Kahrl called Frenchy, "science project".

The Mets playoff odds are ~14% according to Baseball Prospectus, and while that's not abandon ship territory, it's only the fourth best odds in the N.L. East. If you check the PECOTA adjusted odds, the Braves have twice the chance of the Mets (even computers laugh at the Church trade). In the interest of feigning hope for the season, I'm not going to recommend any more dramatic downgrades, but instead some players that fit the Francoeur mold and what each team's needs are.

Star-divide

Alex Rios  OF, TOR-  A good hitter and great fielder, Alex Rios is a 5 WAR player, a borderline superstar. I want nothing to do with Vernon Wells and his contract, but as Dave Cameron pointed out, Alex Rios is signed to a favorable extension. If the Jays are unable to trade Halladay and seriously want to trade Rios for little, I'd imagine teams would be lining up at the door. Surely the rumor that the Wells and Rios could be had for nothing meant the team had to take both players on.

Josh Fields 3B, CWS- Josh Fields isn't arb-eligible yet, but otherwise he may as well be called the Jeff Francoeur of baseball players. At age 26, Fields is two years removed from a successful 2007 season when he demonstrated his trademark bad plate discipline (33.5 % K) and great power (.236 ISO). Since then, he's put up an unspectacular line in AAA, when he tried the Sox short patience in 2008, and has floundered at the major league level. His problem is more hacking than OBP-denial, but he's got tremendous power when he does make contact. The White Sox have rushed Gordon Beckham all the way to the majors, mostly in response to Fields' struggles. He's no great shakes at third, but has experience in LF and at 1B. Given a reasonable (re:very low) price of minor league filler or bench players, Fields would be a true project and an interesting stop gap for Delgado.

Delmon Young OF, MIN- Delmon Young is the only regular rightfielder worse than Jeff Francoeur. He doesn't make contact, he doesn't walk, can't hit for power, can't walk. Quoth Cameron:

The current version of Young combines Jeff Francouer’s pitch recognition, Adam Dunn’s contact abilities, and Juan Pierre’s power. Just for good measure, he’s also playing the outfield like Jack Cust. Add it all up, and you have a guy who has been worth -1.3 wins in 125 plate appearances. Prorated over a full season, that’s -6.5 wins.

Still, Young's 23 years old, the age most players break into the majors, and was once considered a generational talent. Every plate appearance the Twins give to Young over Carlos Gomez is an individual disaster. Give the Twins some cash and a C-prospect and throw Delmon in the minors for the rest of the season. If he hasn't figured it out in a year from now, cut him to avoid arbitration. You think the Mets are tanking? Wait until they are Young-Reed-Francoeur OF alignment tanking. Yowza.

Mike Fontenot 2B, CHC-Not really a Frenchy, 29-year-old Fontenot is both talented and not totally on the outs with his team. Still, a .230 BA will likely prevent him from being considered an everyday player, and could potentially be had for a more grissiony replacement, i.e. Alex Cora. I could see a universe in which the Cubs went for that swap, still upset about gritlord Mark DeRosa going to a hated rival. For his part, Mike Fontenot had a .395 wOBA and a 18 UZR/150 last year in limited playing time, netting a 3.1 WAR in less than 300 PA. He's not that good, but he's not this bad, and is tons better than Cora or Castillo at either middle infield position.

Micah Hoffpauir 1B/OF, CHC- Derek Lee's resurgence forced Hoffpauir back to a part-time role, and I would love to have Hoffpauir subing until Delgado is back. He posted 1.145 OPS last year in AAA and plays passable D at first. His .348 projected rest-of-season wOBA is just as good as anything Murphy will do, and with more power upside. He's 29, but not year arbitration eligible, a "AAAA player". If you're having trouble getting off the Val Pascussi train, Hoffpauir could be your new guy.

Joe Koshansy 1B, MIL- At age 27, JoeKo has found himself in an unfortunate set of circumstances, playing in AAA and suffering from a low-BABIP in an organization with several of great hitters with no position. Joe's got .891 OPS in AAA, a good glove at first, and is a good bunter (what's really important). Joe would be a good buy-low and possibly just as productive as a recovering Delgado at first.

Edwin Encarnacion 3B, CIN- The Reds are finally in a penant race and Encarnacion is hitting .170.  He's a consistent .350 wOBA hitter from year-to-year with more power potential. He's a butcher at third, but he can audition for any position he wants on the Mets. The Reds are purportedly looking into Scott Rolen, and possibly dumping Encarnacion. I'd rate this one as very unlikely, but interesting.

Felipe Paulino RHP, HOU- Felipe Paulino, a starter-turned reliever, has great stuff, good peripherals and a huge homerun problem. After a bad ERA as a rookie, Paulino suffered shoulder problems, and has come back to post another bad ERA in the majors. Looking past the ERA, however, he's much improved with 51 K in 55 innings. The Astros are probably close to giving up with him, but he'd be a great rotation candidate in Citi Field. He's 25 and not yet arbitration-elligible. He's basically the "Next Fernando Nieve" or John Maine, back when John Maine was good and unknown.

Garrett Atkins 1B/"3B", COL- Garrett Atkins was a once a 6 WAR player and is now a huge burden on a competitive team. With firstbase open and the season in the toilet, why not? I don't think he's good, but the Rockies are sick of him, and can be non-tendered after the season if he sucks. The Coors-split thing might make him underrated (if his value can get any lower), and his problem has been more plate discipline related than anything else.

Also considered: Scott Kazmir (yup), Aaron Laffey, Andy Marte, Francisco Liriano, Wladimir Balentin, Corey Hart, Chris B. Young, Kevin Kouzmanoff, and Matt Murton.

Besides Young, all these players could feasibly help the team, while simultaneously providing some upside and regular-player potential. They're all buy low-candidates that would, if nothing else, make the season a little more interesting.

1 recs  |  Comment 45 comments |

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You just know

Omar’s scouting Delmon Young. He likes his upside, speed and defense, regardless of whether he possesses those things or not.

by dtro on Jul 16, 2009 8:17 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

As long as Young doesn't play this year.

And we don’t trade anyone of significant value, I’m good on that.

Get Rios though!!!! Lutz, Evans, and Moviel, get it done Omar!!!!!

"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."

by Evan_S on Jul 16, 2009 10:48 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed, I'd have no problem with Young

as long as he’s given the rest of the season in Buffalo. If anything of any value is given up for him, I’d be against it.

"If I ever decide to do a book, I've already got the title...The bases were loaded and so was I."

-Jim Fregosi

by Schmidtxc on Jul 16, 2009 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Frenchy

I have done some thinking on this deal…and at first I HATED it.

However, the more I think about it…the more I realize that if Delgado, Reyes, Beltran come back…the better Frenchy might be in this lineup. Let’s face it, he was never a part of a lineup that good in Atlanta…where he usually had a bigger role than he should have had.

I’m not saying he’s going to turn into an all star over night, but don’t you guys think there is a chance that he can prove his worth if he is hitting in a much less demanding spot in the lineup?

by metsman07 on Jul 16, 2009 9:08 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Yes, I think he's going to prove his worth.

The trouble is, he’s not worth much. In fact, he’s worth negative wins.

by anonymous on Jul 16, 2009 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Good stuff

I would throw Fausto Carmona in there too. The guy is seriously broken, but he has a great deal of talent and Cleveland appears to have soured on him.

Everyone is entitled to be stupid, but Jerry abuses the privilege.

by AnthonyR on Jul 16, 2009 10:46 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Since he has a rocket arm

maybe Frenchy can become a pitcher. Like a reverse Ankiel. He’d come in for a few weeks throwing gas out of the bullpen, be crowned the Natural (maybe reverse Roy Hobbs is more apt), then refuse to ever throw a changeup or alter his delivery after finding out that he tips pitches. And then we trade him to the Royals.

by dtro on Jul 16, 2009 11:08 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Frenchy sucks.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jul 16, 2009 12:24 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Corrected:

Delta Airlines Presents Frenchy Sucks TM

Everyone is entitled to be stupid, but Jerry abuses the privilege.

by AnthonyR on Jul 16, 2009 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think the people that are upset about this trade are too caught up in the numbers

I don’t think that’s always a bad thing but I don’t think it’s always a good thing either. The one problem I have with it is that the human element gets lost. Players don’t like to get traded. Teams don’t like those same players that they did trade to come back to haunt.

Atlanta, just like us, has it’s own set of problems as well. They have had an underacheiving lineup there for quite a while. They also Fed up big time giving up on Andruw Jones prematurely.

Of course we have our problems with a lousy medical staff and manager who contantly mismanaged the pen. Sometimes I wonder if this has melded into a lack of confidence in the manager on the part of the players.

The Mets trading Church is not the same as say, the Red Sox, trading Nomar Garciaparra in 2004. That trade BTW did not go over well and the Red Sox did not get anywhere near an equal return. Many of the fans wanted the Theo Epstein’s head on a platter. If I recall, despite all that they had a pretty good year that year.

The Mets are in need of heart transplant. Don’t know really if Francoeur fits that need but he is a gamer. He is into every single pitch the entire nine innings of the game. Right now I think guys like that are invaluable to this Mets team that often looks like it could care less on most nights. They seem to give up when they get down 2-0.

I’m not a big fan of Minaya at all. I want that guy canned along with Manuel and his whole entire staff. With that said, I am willing to give this trade the benefit of the doubt.

And yeah, I never really cared about Ryan Church either. I thought Minaya got robbed blind in that Lastings Milledge trade. He got a Right Feilder that struggled to play more than 100 games a season and a catcher that can barely hit his weight.

by Chickendirt on Jul 16, 2009 1:50 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

No

"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."

by Evan_S on Jul 16, 2009 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

robbed blind?

What the heck has Milledge done since he left New York?

by Endys Game on Jul 16, 2009 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not much

but at least he has potential.

Schneider and are Church are what they are.

A catcher who can’t hit

A right fielder that couldn’t work his way on the roster on a daily basis.

by Chickendirt on Jul 16, 2009 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It wasn't Church's fault though that he was kneed in the head, had his injuries grossly mismanaged...

and had a manager who didn’t like him.

Everyone is entitled to be stupid, but Jerry abuses the privilege.

by AnthonyR on Jul 16, 2009 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I know it's not entirely his fault

I’ll give him that.

I don’t think he helped his cause much this season either after the injury. And yes, Jerry Manuel is a joke of a manager as well.

by Chickendirt on Jul 16, 2009 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

What did he do to "not help his cause"?

There was no one better to put in his position on the roster. It’s baseball, not a high school popularity contest.

Everyone is entitled to be stupid, but Jerry abuses the privilege.

by AnthonyR on Jul 16, 2009 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

How bout not stepping on third base to cost the Mets a game in LA?

by Chickendirt on Jul 16, 2009 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Then shouldn't Castillo be traded too?

"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."

by Evan_S on Jul 16, 2009 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

LOL

Castillo was one of the players I wanted to go BEFORE Church.

He’s been playing well as of late but since coming here a major dissapointment. This team had a serious hole at second base and Castillo was just spackle when we got him. I was shocked when he was signned long term.

If Minaya had any sense he would have gone after Hudson and never tendered Castillo such a horrible contract. There been a hole in that position since Edagrdo Alfonos left.

by Chickendirt on Jul 16, 2009 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Carlos Beltran also sucks for not swinging in Game 7, right?

How many Mets have cost us a game this year? If we banished all of them to the bench and traded them, we’d have no one left.

Everyone is entitled to be stupid, but Jerry abuses the privilege.

by AnthonyR on Jul 16, 2009 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Okay, I see the wisdom of your position now.

Every ballplayer who makes a single game-changing mistake should immediately be traded for another team’s sub-replacement-level warm body. This cannot fail to result in TOTAL DOMINATION.

by anonymous on Jul 16, 2009 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

OK

How about Church diving for a ball in the outfeild with the Mets having a three run lead last week? He wasn’t even diving to catch the ball but to trap it.

Ryan Church has had a few brain farts this season. Those are two that strike me off the top of my head.

by Chickendirt on Jul 16, 2009 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

You're correct in pointing out his mistakes

But only in the world that you and Omar share, does that mean that you trade him for a player that is fatally flawed with little hope of revival.

Those isolated mistakes are more than offset by the “150+ game” sucktitude of his replacement.

Everyone is entitled to be stupid, but Jerry abuses the privilege.

by AnthonyR on Jul 16, 2009 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

And here is the deal that should have happened, if he was insistant:

If you want to gamble, do Jeremy Reed for Francoeur. You trade a lefty for a righty (which Omar wanted) and you don’t take as big a risk.

Reed for Francoeur is much closer in value than Church/Francoeur.

Everyone is entitled to be stupid, but Jerry abuses the privilege.

by AnthonyR on Jul 16, 2009 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yep, that automatically makes him totally awful.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jul 16, 2009 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's not his fault

Francoeur is going to get more playing time than Church did because of Manuel’s incompetence, not because Church is a bad player. Francoeur, who is a bad player, will play because he is new and Jerry doesn’t hate him. Church should have been playing everyday. You’re logic would be akin to Matt Kemp bats 8th in the Dodger lineup, James Loney bats 5th, James Loney is better than Matt Kemp.

"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."

by Evan_S on Jul 16, 2009 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Schneider and are Church are what they are.

And Francoeur is what is his:

Francoeur’s 2009 VORP: 0.9
Church’s 2009 VORP: 3.8

Francoeur’s 2008 VORP: -16.9(!)
Church’s 2008 VORP: 8.8

by SQUAD on Jul 16, 2009 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

please just stop posting about this trade already

We’ve all heard your opinion — Francoeur heart, upside, gamer, grit, Church worthless, fragile, old — and we’ve all seen your inability to provide an evidence-based argument for it. Stop repeating it ad nauseam and expecting that you’ll get a different reaction this time.

by anonymous on Jul 16, 2009 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Chickendirt, come into the light.

While my transition to a more saber centered way of evaluating players was largely complete, I still held onto a belief in upside and intangibles. Then the Oliver Perez signing happened.

There is no other way of saying this, but I was 100% dead wrong about the Ollie signing. Now, I am not going to say that I have totally given up on things like “tools” and “potential”, however, there is no way you should be a heavy price for such players. For example: you should not sign Oliver Perez to a $36M contract and you should not trade Ryan Church for Jeff Francoeur. That is just poor decision making. If you want to buy low on a “toolsy” guy with the hope that he puts it together or is a late bloomer, that’s fine, I am all for that. Just don’t pay the steep cost Minaya has in these kinds of moves.

by SQUAD on Jul 16, 2009 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

During the offseason

I tried convincing people on ESPN.com message board that Wolf made a helluva lot more sense to sign than Perez using numbers to show that he was the better pitcher (and always has been the better pitcher). Nobody wanted to listen. You just can’t convince people sometimes, that’s how it is. I respect what Chickendirt is saying, he’s got some faith.

Other than to a lesser degree with Jose Reyes, is there a history for players never walking much, but then all of a sudden “getting it”. That would be interesting to investigate. I’ve looked for about 10 minutes, basically just looking for players who were similar in age to Francoeur on Baseball Reference. Some findings:

Harold Baines: Walked only 19 times in 491 ABs at age 21, then 12 times in 290 ABs at age 22. Seemed to figure it out later (to some degree) walking about 50-60 times a year for the remainder of his career.

Dave Winfield: walked only 40 times in 500 ABs at age 22, then improved.

Roberto Clemente (LOL I know): 15 BBs in 430 ABs at age 24. Hardly ever walked his first 7 or 8 seasons then started walking more towards the second half of his career. It helped that he hit the shit out of the ball.

Chili Davis: walked 45 times in 701 plate appearances at age 22, then had 5 seasons of 80 plus walks much later.

Johnny Damon: 31 BBs in 520 ABs at age 22. But consistently put up OBPs of over .350 for the rest of his career.

The problem obviously is that Francoeur is not 22 anymore and seems to be getting worse not better. At some point maybe he has the epiphany where he says "if I don’t start taking pitches, I will be out of the game by age 28. The sad thing is, with more plate discipline will obviously come more power. It’s so simple! Or maybe not.

by David G on Jul 16, 2009 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Your

Assessment of Roberto Clemente that it helped he hit the shit out of the ball made me laugh.

by Ohpityme on Jul 19, 2009 7:44 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, totally.

How silly of me to see Jeff Francouer’s league worst first pitch strike percentage, bottom five O-Swing% and Swing%, .281 wOBA in 2009, below replacement UZR/150 over the past year and a half, and below replacement value to the tune of several wins and not think “Easy win for da Metsies!”

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jul 16, 2009 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Church is what he is, Milledge still has some untapped potential:

Since the trade:

Ryan Church: 157 games- 14 HR, 71 RBI
Lastings Milledge: 145 games- 14 HR, 62 RBI

I’d rather have L-Millz than Frenchy or Church

Everyone is entitled to be stupid, but Jerry abuses the privilege.

by AnthonyR on Jul 16, 2009 2:24 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Milledge was who I hoped would be targetted when he became available.

by Chickendirt on Jul 16, 2009 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Never happening

Everyone is entitled to be stupid, but Jerry abuses the privilege.

by AnthonyR on Jul 16, 2009 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

that is the same numbers and Milledge didn't suffer through concussions and a foolish manager

I really don’t understand the love for Lastings He has been utterly disappointing

by Endys Game on Jul 16, 2009 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Just wanted to point something out.

The photo for this post and its caption are fantastic.

by SQUAD on Jul 16, 2009 3:11 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Fontenot

Always liked him. A 2nd basemen with the ability to hit with a little power is such an advantage.

by David G on Jul 16, 2009 3:21 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

re:Milledge

don’t hate

King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president

by Sam Page on Jul 16, 2009 4:21 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I don't

But I don’t luv either.

by Endys Game on Jul 16, 2009 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I like Ian Snell personally,

and I’m sure he can be had for nothing. Josh Fields would be an acceptable guy to add as well, but I really would like to see the front office simply acknowledge that this season is going poorly, and that they are attempting to buy low.

"If I ever decide to do a book, I've already got the title...The bases were loaded and so was I."

-Jim Fregosi

by Schmidtxc on Jul 16, 2009 6:12 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

He's a nutjob, dude.

We don’t need any of that here. He couldn’t hack it in Pittsburgh of all places…why could he cut it here?

He’s got some deep issues and has for some time. We already have enough problems.

Everyone is entitled to be stupid, but Jerry abuses the privilege.

by AnthonyR on Jul 16, 2009 6:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Speaking of fire sales

The Mets should just auction off the entire Buffalo roster and forfeit the rest of the season. Though I guess that would be more garage sale than fire sale. Who wants Mike Lamb for tree fitty?

by Steeeve on Jul 17, 2009 9:52 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Hmm

Delmon Young, Garret Atkins, Edwin Encarnacion, Josh Fields, Mike Fotenot, Alex Rios and Fausto Carmona and maybe even a Ben Sheets type are all very interesting prospects.
I would much rather see the Mets make a play for 3-4 of these types of player in the offseason rather than going for one massively paid FA type that will leave them in the same mess.
They could probably even talk the Cubs into trading Castillo and say $5 mil for Fotenot straight up which would make my day…not that Castillo is awful but I think he still needs to go.
If they could start the season next year with a lineup of:
1B-Fields/Atkins
RF-Rios
2B-Fotenot
LF-Encarnacion/Young
That would impact the team far greater than say signing Matt Holliday for $16 mil a season or emptying the farm for Halladay and by the looks of things would cost little in terms of prospects.

Apparently Tampa want to relieve themselves of Kazmir because his wage is too much for them especially given how deep their SP is, he would cost a lot but would be the perfect No.2 for the Mets.

by Ohpityme on Jul 19, 2009 7:38 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Add

Stephen Drew and Chris Young to that too.
As well as wishfully thinking Mike Napoli and Kelly Shoppach.

by Ohpityme on Jul 19, 2009 9:12 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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