A Double Dose Of Jerry Manuel Fail

by James Kannengieser on Jul 19, 2009 9:15 PM EDT in Commentary Comment 25 comments

A post like this could be made for just about every game. It's getting old at this point, but it's still worth documenting all the basic managerial mistakes Jerry Manuel makes.

1. Both yesterday and today, Angel Pagan led off the game with a base hit. Yesterday was a single, today a double. Luis Castillo, who has the 3rd highest OBP of anyone on the active roster and is hitting .341 in July, sacrifice bunted Pagan to the next base on both occasions. He squared around, leading me to believe a sacrifice was his intention rather than a base hit. The order to sacrifice likely came from the dugout. Sacrifice bunting is a dumb play in almost all situations. It's especially ridiculous in the first inning of a game. Here are the run expectancies for the pre-bunt and post-bunt game situations from yesterday and today, according to Baseball Prospectus's Run Expectancy Matrix:

Situation	Expected Runs
Runner On First - 0 Out	0.88
Runner On Second - 1 Out	0.70

Situation	Expected Runs
Runner On 2nd - 0 Out	1.11
Runner On 3rd - 1 Out	0.96

In both situations, the Mets were worse off because of the sacrifice bunt. Pagan scored in neither instance but that is beside the point. This non-stop bunting strategy is not "playing the game the right way", despite what Jerry thinks or what the ESPN Sunday Night Baseball announcers say. It hurts the offense and it's amazing that seemingly no one in the Mets multi-million dollar enterprise realizes it.

2. I'll keep this one simple. Brian Schneider had the 4th best wOBA of anyone in tonight's starting lineup. His projected rest of season wOBA according to ZiPS was 3rd best. So where did he bat in the lineup? 8th, naturally. Stuff like this irks me more than Tim Redding's walks or Jeff Francoeur's OBP. It's not rocket science that a manager should try to maximize plate appearances for his best hitters. In fact it's kindergarten level math, which Jerry continues to fail.

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amen

It’ s the idiocy that really gets to me. The same sensibility that thinks Jeff Francouer is a bold, good move. Fire them all.

by twon8 on Jul 19, 2009 9:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

That's Jerry ball

he’s lucky he’s so good with the media

by Jadden Hopkins on Jul 19, 2009 9:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Jerry is much more of an issue at this point than Francoeur.

Francoeur’s overly aggressive approach would eventually lead most managers to bench him. Jerry isn’t the right manager for that. I do feel for him in the fact that he’s had very little to work with recently. At some point though, he has to prove that he knows how to utilize the very minimal tools he’s given. I wish the guy had a better team to run out there everyday, but at the same time I wish the team tha got run out there had a better manager.

"If I ever decide to do a book, I've already got the title...The bases were loaded and so was I."

-Jim Fregosi

by Schmidtxc on Jul 19, 2009 10:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

We've recognized the problem.

Step two is washing it off.

Everyone is entitled to be stupid, but Jerry abuses the privilege.

by AnthonyR on Jul 19, 2009 10:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Has there ever been an instance where someone told Jerry to his face “YOU’RE A FUCKING MORON?!?”

Has anyone ever said the same thing to Omar and the Wilpon ~~Crime~~ Family?

I don't need no instructions to know how to rock!

by R_Adragna on Jul 19, 2009 10:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Whoa!

Meant “YOU’RE A FUCKING MORON!!!”?

I don't need no instructions to know how to rock!

by R_Adragna on Jul 19, 2009 10:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Brian Schneider is one of our best hitters?

Say wha?

You may have Utley, Howard, Rollins, Hamels, and Lidge...but, WE have Fernando Tatis, baby. Two grand slames in one inning. Hello??

by ZaBlanc on Jul 19, 2009 10:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

1.) You spelled the word "slam" wrong on your signature. Wouldn't want a Phillies fan to see that and make fun of you.

2.) Yes, Brian Schneider is probably our 4th most valuable player at this point. Oh how the mighty have fallen.

Everyone is entitled to be stupid, but Jerry abuses the privilege.

by AnthonyR on Jul 19, 2009 11:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

But . . . but . . .

there are injuries! You can’t expect the Manager to be on top of his game when three of his best hitters are out of the lineup.

by Mount17 on Jul 19, 2009 11:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Duh

When you’re short handed, the idea is to make things even harder. You have to challenge your replacement level dream team, can’t let em’ run a muck by like, helping them to score runs.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Meddler on Jul 19, 2009 11:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

To be fair

The two issues are very different degrees of fail. Issue #1 is a major drag on Met run production whereas issue #2 is a hindrance of a much smaller degree. A simple comparison of Schneider to a few of the hitters placed ahead of him in recent games displays that there isn’t much difference between any of these guys. Zips’ wRAA projection for the rest of the season for Manuel’s options:

+0.4 Tatis
-0.8 Schneider
-1.1 Murphy
-3.7 Cora
-3.8 Reed
-5.4 Francouer

There isn’t much to choose from here. Yes, Schneider is a better hitter than Alex Cora or Jeremy Reed and should be hitting ahead of either. But the difference between regularly hitting Schneider 4th or 8th is minimal.

by Zwill on Jul 19, 2009 11:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

But it's such an easy thing to do.

So why not just, like, do it?

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jul 20, 2009 12:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cause even Jerry knows...

catchers bat towards the bottom of the order

by mikesmetsrthebest on Jul 20, 2009 12:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

compared to the rest of our lineup Schneider is nearly Piazza, maybe we can change his name so Jerry will bat him 4th

by twon8 on Jul 20, 2009 12:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

or maybe

we could actually get Piazza to come play catcher for us.

ain't had enough...

by BlackOps on Jul 20, 2009 2:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sac bunt

I’m defending the sacrifice bunt, but there is a slight flaw in the “expected runs” statistical analysis.

Those “expected runs” are based on a normal MLB lineup, and they are also based on any of the 1-9 hitters being on base.

To address the second point first, if you have a fast runner on 2B, or 3B, there’s a much greater likelihood of him scoring than you slowest runner. The expected runs numbers would treat both those scenarios the same.

Back to the first point, “expected runs” would be skewed towards rewarding fewer outs in direct proportion to the ability of the hitters. If you have a lineup that is all batting .400 and hitting HRs every other AB, then obviously, any out that you give up would be incredibly stupid.

On the other hand, if you have a lineup of guys who can’t hit at all, and can almost never hit a HR, then I’m certain that it would not kill your expected runs as much as the average MLB numbers you posted.

Let’s face it, those “expected runs” take into account the very real chance (on a normal team) of someone hitting a HR, or (gasp) multiple HRs, in the inning, which probably isn’t going to happen with the Mets.

In this case, with Castillo being one of their few decent hitters, and unlikely to be doubled up, and it being the 1st inning, I wouldn’t have sacrificed. Especially given it probably wasn’t going to be a 1-0 game.

But I think that using MLB average production as a representative baseline for analyzing the Mets’ current lineup doesn’t work very well.

by Mex_17 on Jul 20, 2009 8:08 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

ARGH - I meant "I'm not defending the sacrifice bunt..."

by Mex_17 on Jul 20, 2009 8:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good points

but bunting there still sucks. And it was happening when the lineup still featured Beltran, Delgado, etc.

by James Kannengieser on Jul 20, 2009 8:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Only problem is, the last 2 games, we've sacrificed our 2nd most productive hitter in the 1st inning.

Slappy is a good enough fundamental hitter to take aim at a spot on the left or right side and move the runner over without giving himself up. Bunting him there is taking away the thing that he does best.

There honestly isn’t anyone in the league that I would prefer in that situation to get the runner over.

I would counter with the fact that we cannot afford to give up outs with such an inept line-up.

Everyone is entitled to be stupid, but Jerry abuses the privilege.

by AnthonyR on Jul 20, 2009 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree with the sentiment

I thought about making a similar point, but I declined for one reason: These were first inning bunts. The thing bunting does do, regardless of lineup quality, is increase your chance of scoring just one run. Even if the overall run expectancy between bunting and not bunting is similar with this crappy lineup (which I don’t think it is, but as you say, its probably closer), this just isn’t a good strategy early in the game, and its even worse when you have a speedster on the basepaths. Pagan is a pretty solid basestealer, even if he’s never got the playing time to display it, he has a solid career success rate. So even if you assume his chances of taking an extra base on his own are about average (~80%), what are the odds of a successful sac-bunt? Even from Slappy I have to imagine its not better than ~95%. So you’ve increased your chances of earning that extra base by about 15%, and in exchange, virtually guaranteed the opposing defense an out. Is that really worth the extra 15% chance of the baserunner advancing? Especially so early in the game, where the leverage value of each single run is lower, and more importantly, lower in proportion to each offensive out, this is just fuzzy math on Jerry’s part. Even if the total run expectancy is similar, its still much more tactically sound to either not bunt and hope for multiple runs in an early game situation (especially with Fernando Nieve as your SP), or allow Pagan to take the extra base on his own.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Meddler on Jul 20, 2009 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You don't sac bunt in the first inning

It’s as simple as that. A lineup like this can never give away free outs in order to “leave it up to the next guy.” It’s not good enough. A hit and run makes a lot more sense for this team. Guys like Castillo and Murph put the ball in play, so why not just try that?

by David G on Jul 20, 2009 11:17 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think Castillo actually bunts on his own

in a lot of these situations. Just a home run hitter gets a green light to hit 3-0, Castillo has a green light bunting sign at all times.

But what’s really horrifying is that Castillo is our 2nd best hitter now.

Let’s compare our production we’ve received from 2b to the other 29 teams 2b: We are 23rd in OPS, 25th in slugging, and 30th in RBIs with 21 (perhaps because we often bunt with our 2b when guys are in scoring position!). And yet this our 2nd strongest position player right now. How far away is next April?

by David G on Jul 20, 2009 1:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Extra Bonus Jerry Manuel Fail!

There’s thinking outside the box, then there is supidity: http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2009/07/its_come_to_this_for_the_mets.html

I hope the idea of playing Livan in the infield is a joke (late april fool?), but this is the same kind of out-of-the-box thinking that gave us the Church-Francoeur trade.

by -ben- on Jul 20, 2009 3:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

This story is embarassing

Even consideration of such an idea is preposterous. This is Livan Hernandez of the career 229/238/307 slash line he’s talking about playing at 1B.

by Zwill on Jul 20, 2009 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Everyone Should Relax....

…. put their feet up and enjoy the summer watching baseball, not pointing out every flaw of a manager and general manager who will be back in 2010 due to the fact that this is what one would label “an injury year”. Leave the rest of your hair on your head alone, stop kicking the dog, yelling at the wife and kids, getting all whiny and morose with your girlfriends, gnashing your teeth, throwing empty beer cans at the television, chanting “Jerry and Oman must go!!”— just sit back and enjoy the game as a pastime, as a way to whittle away the summer. Your heart will thank you (and so will your family and friends).

Besides, all of you will need your strength for 2010 when things really hit the fan!!!

"We praise or blame as one or the other affords more opportunity for exhibiting our power of judgment." Friedrich Nietzsche, "Human,All Too Human" (1878)

by wgarrett on Jul 20, 2009 6:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs