Jon Niese's Release Point(s)

by Sam Page on Jul 26, 2009 6:00 AM EDT in Analysis Comment 10 comments

There were certainly many positives to take from Jon Niese's start yesterday. He controlled a lineup of mostly free-swinging right-handers, getting 12 groundouts to 5 flyouts. Some radar guns clocked his fastball as high as 95 mph. So I apologize for focusing on the one concerning element of his start, but his release points seemed a little odd:

via www.brooksbaseball.net

At first glance, it just seems a little erratic, with contact coming mostly from the inner-portion of the lower grouping. Grouped by pitch, however, a pattern is clear:

He clearly releases the curveballs from a higher release point than his other two pitches, the fastball and what presumably is a cutter. That could be a problem farther down the line if other teams' scouts pick up on it. Last night, however, I don't think it was problem, as the cutter, the pitch most prone to contact, resulted in three groundballs, a strikeout, and a weak pop out.

Overall, I was happy to see our young groundball machine succeed, but the release point is something to watch for.

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Shhhhhhhhh!

You don't cheer for the Mets. You drink for the Mets.

by Kevin H on Jul 26, 2009 9:23 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Hmm

Looks like this hasn’t changed from earlier this year. I was wondering if his recent success in AAA had been partially attributable to blending his release point for the curve with the rest.

by mnbv on Jul 26, 2009 10:14 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I wonder how obvious this actually is to hitters

The contact rate from the lower release point may be a red herring. It could be that the movement of those pitches gets batters to swing, not the release point.

Again, don’t really know!

by TheBigStapler on Jul 26, 2009 10:40 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Release point

I completely missed last night’s start, so I didn’t get to see Niese. But having a breaking pitch thrown at a different release point isn’t the worst thing in the world. I can think of several pitchers who drop down to throw breaking balls (usually pitchers who throw slurves or sliders), some of them quite good. Hitters would know what was coming and still couldn’t hit the pitch.

In Niese’s case, I’d wager he and the staff are 100% aware he’s doing it and don’t much care, at least for the time being. Niese has that knee buckling curve; in order to get the same depth on the pitch, he likely has to throw it from a higher release point (he has to get on top of the pitch). If he were to throw it from the same point as his fastball, it would likely have less depth and more horizontal movement. It wouldn’t be as good of a pitch.

So the Mets staff have likely determined that it’s best for now that he bring his best pitches to the mound. And it’s a reasonably safe gamble—a breaking ball with that much vertical drop is very difficult to time correctly (hanging them will be bad, but all hanging breaking balls are bad). But if he does find his curves are getting hit hard, Warthen will have to work on a more consistent release point, to the detriment of the pitch.

On another note, was Niese actually throwing sliders? Were they curves thrown from a lower release point? Or were they cutters?

by Alex Nelson on Jul 26, 2009 10:43 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Pretty sure

that they were cutters. Seemed somewhat effective against righties, but probably a pitch he needs to work on a bit more.

by njk237 on Jul 26, 2009 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's what I figured

by Alex Nelson on Jul 26, 2009 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

cutters

and your probably right about the staff’s calculus.

King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president

by Sam Page on Jul 26, 2009 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm happy with Niese's start too

Now we can trade him at the deadline for the help we need to stay in the race!

(I’m kidding, I’m kidding, but I won’t breathe a sigh of relief until I see that Niese is still with this club on August 1st.)

Somehow, a chain of events unfolded that put Steve Phillips in a professional broadcast booth Sunday night so he could rip Carlos Beltran. Try to explain that in any other terms.

by Greenpoint Ian on Jul 26, 2009 1:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

While a bit concerning,

This is neither something new or rare. Randy Wolf, who is maybe Niese’s best comp from a production standpoint, has a similar disparity in release points between his curveball and the rest of his pitches. And while it may hurt, it hasn’t prevented him from being effective.

by T Pac on Jul 26, 2009 1:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Josh Smolow via Toby Hyde

has a full pitch f/x breakdown of Niese’s start and it’s good news!

Niese has 5 effective pitches that he can use in different ways against left and right-handed hitters. John Sickels disagreed with me before but I think his new pitches change his projection. Call me crazy, but I think we could have a real solid #2 on our hands in the mold of Mark Buehrle.

by TheBigStapler on Jul 27, 2009 12:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs