Wildcard "Net" Games Behind (NGB)
by Kepler on Jul 27, 2009 10:43 PM EDT
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PrintWhen is 6.5 GB really not 6.5 GB?
When you have 7 teams ahead of you. Tonight, the WC standings are:
-- Colorado
1.5 Chicago OR St. Louis (only one counts, the other is the division leader)
1.5 San Francisco
3.0 Atlanta
3.0 Florida
3.5 Houston
4.5 Milwaukee
6.5 Mets
The games ahead of the Mets in the Wildcard race are thus:
6.5 Colorado
5.0 Chicago OR St. Louis
5.0 San Francisco
3.5 Atlanta
3.5 Florida
3.0 Houston
2.0 Milwaukee
for a total of 28.5 net games behind.
I'm not sure if 28.5 NGB is for all practical purposes insurmountable at this point in the season. Clearly, the Mets would need a substantial improvement in their play -- a fair stretch of good / lucky performances by the AAAA roster followed by the injured returning and contributing immediately -- to maintain the sort of pace required to overcome it. But at least this measure factors in all the teams ahead of them.
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It's not awful.
Though I still have no expectations. Maybe the feeling of being “out of it” will loosen them up a bit and make the return of the Big Three™ (if it happens) feel really, really good.
At this point, the Mets just need to win games. Forget the standings. This isn’t 2007 or 2008, we can’t sit and calculate what needs to happen. Just win games and good things will come.
You may have Utley, Howard, Rollins, Hamels, and Lidge...but, WE have Fernando Tatis, baby. Two grand slames in one inning. Hello??
BTW
Kudos to Francoeur! He’s done a good-great job since coming over. And he’s exciting to see in right with that cannon arm. There’s more to hope for with him than Church-y. He deserves some credit and I hate to see him slammed on AA. Give him a shot, New York. Just let him enjoy the new surroundings and give him a clean start.
You may have Utley, Howard, Rollins, Hamels, and Lidge...but, WE have Fernando Tatis, baby. Two grand slames in one inning. Hello??
I'm giving him a huge shot
I enjoy having a new player around, despite our past…differences.
King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president
Totally
I never got on the Franco hate wagon…I just don’t “see” enough games. But, yeah, if we’re gonna watch shit shit team, having something new to keep an eye on gives us something fun to do. ;-)
You may have Utley, Howard, Rollins, Hamels, and Lidge...but, WE have Fernando Tatis, baby. Two grand slames in one inning. Hello??
Irrelevant.
I don’t enjoy watching Church. He’s got that weak beard and double armband thing and is a Brave now. Francoeur is young, has a funny looking face, and runs around like a football player. In a year, we may very well be sitting on your porch, drinking ice tea, lamenting the Jim Bowden-era beginning with Francoeur in center, but for now, Francoeur intrigues me enough to keep the crappiest of games interesting.
King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president
This
is the best selection of reasons to like/dislike baseball players ever!
Weak Beard = bad
Funny looking face = good
Double armband = bad
Runs around a lot = good
Awesome!
The best way to judge a baseball player is
Braids = perfect
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
We never
Should have traded Lastings….
"You know I am only teasing. I love you gals out there -- always have." - Keith Hernandez
Milledge
.324/.424/.409 in IL this month. Only 50 at-bats though.
Sure, bring back Milledge and Kazmir, Heath Bell too.
How is Steve henderson for a Milledge comp? Career .280/.352/.413 in the majors in a weaker hitting era. Milz is at .261/.326/.400. He’s young still though.
MILLEDGE/MANNY '10
There’s a ticket we can all get behind!
How has Church been better? A .200/.351/.300 line or a .327/.339/.538?
Church has 6 K’s, 7 BB. Frenchy has 5 K’s, 1 BB. Yes, Church’s OBP has been better. But Frenchy has created .69 Runs Per Game as a Met, Church has created .27 Runs Per Game as a Brave.
Church’s OBP has been better, but overall (in an admittedly small sample size) Francouer has been better (in my humble opinion)
Defense
2.6 UZR for the man in the ATL compared to -.7 UZR for, as unimaginative and lazy metsblog readers who admittedly can’t spell Francoeur (and no I didn’t need to look it up) put it , F-Core
Church – .3 WAR
Francoeur – .2 WAR
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
Francoeur has been better than Church
That’s just a fact and a main reason why advanced statistics do not always hold up in the short term. This will not continue, but we have been a better baseball team because of his presence.
It’s an opinion because as you stated, the statistics do not back that up, but I don’t see how anyone can say that we would have been better off the past 13 games with Church.
Again though, I see this changing over the course of the next 60 games and I still think the deal was a poor decision.
Everyone is entitled to be stupid, but Jerry abuses the privilege.
Francoeur could be useful if he was utilized properly next year.
I’d actually like to see someone with his approach in the 8 hole. You can’t really expect too much from the pitcher (obvious, I know), a batter who will put the ball in play in front of him may help maximize the value of any runners left on base. Watching Castillo walk to clear the pitcher slot has it’s uses, but it wastes Castillos appearance on base in most cases.
"If I ever decide to do a book, I've already got the title...The bases were loaded and so was I."
-Jim Fregosi
by Stephen Schmidt on Jul 28, 2009 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't disagree
but Church was/is a better fielder. If Francoeur is hot, we will be a solid offensive team, but since he can’t walk, when he gets cold he will be nothing short of abysmal.
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
it's absolutely disgraceful
that a guy with a .127 edge in BA and a .238 edge in SLG actually trails in OBP by any amount.
Not insurmountable
Although honestly at this point I would be happy with an above .500 season, I go into August expecting nothing. That way when we shock everyone by clinching the wild card I’ll be pleasantly surprised.
"I reject your reality and substitute my own"
-Adam Savage
by blueandorange4life on Jul 28, 2009 2:46 AM EDT reply actions
next week..
will be one of the rare weeks where we want the Phils to take 4 from the Giants? it would put us in a better position for the WC or should we hope for a 2-2 split?
President of the Ramses Barden Fan Club
by Hoyadestroya85 on Jul 28, 2009 11:35 PM EDT up reply actions
I'll be rooting for a Giants sweep.
Simpler to get back on top of the East than fight the whole league for the WC. Not to mention more satisfying.
All other things being equal
I want the Phillies to lose and I want them to lose because of ego-shattering errors
by TheBigStapler on Jul 29, 2009 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Seeing Rollins
do a Castillo pop-drop, only then burst into floods of uncontrollable tears – now that would be sweet.
Perfect Scenario
Pop up, behind second base bag, shallow center. Rollins goes out to get it, Victorino comes in. Easy play to end the game, winning run at the plate. Anyway, Rollins closes his glove before the ball gets there and it bounces up, lands right in Victorino’s glove but he drops it too. In front of them both, Rollins and Victorino both go for it and bump heads leading to concussions for each of them. Utley was expecting the easy play to be made, as was the rest of the team so there heading towards the dugout and there is no one to get the ball, and Pablo Sandoval, who hit the ball scores. Giants win and no more Rollins and Victorino ever!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
by Evan_S on Jul 29, 2009 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
it hurts to do
but gotta hope for a philly sweep. While the postseason is a grotesque long shot through the wild card at best, its even less likely through a division title. Might as well hope for the scenario that gives us the best shot.
by KeithsMoustache on Jul 29, 2009 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Giants sweep
easier to leapfrog 7 teams for the wild card then get the division lead back, barring some sort of karmically induced Phils collapse, ideally involving severe injuries to Rollins and Hamels
"I reject your reality and substitute my own"
-Adam Savage
by blueandorange4life on Jul 29, 2009 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Lots of random lightning strikes....
"If I ever decide to do a book, I've already got the title...The bases were loaded and so was I."
-Jim Fregosi
by Stephen Schmidt on Jul 29, 2009 10:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Sounds like a plan to me
"I reject your reality and substitute my own"
-Adam Savage
by blueandorange4life on Jul 30, 2009 1:45 AM EDT up reply actions
Baseball Prospectus Postseason Odds
Division: 2.67%
Wild Card: 1.06%
PECOTA-adjusted Postseason Odds
Division: 0.85%
Wild Card: 0.93%
by TheBigStapler on Jul 29, 2009 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks for being a buzz kill. Ha.
Or bringing us back to reality. Whichever.
I'm no scholar
but I’m pretty sure it was the Cylons not Germans
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
Post-win Update. NGB = 25.5
0.5 SF (6.0)
1.5 CHI (5.0)
2.5 FLA (4.0)
4.0 ATL (2.5)
5.5 MIL (1.0)
6.0 HOU (0.5)
6.5 METS
Basically
The Mets need to pull off the ‘07 Rockies run at this point. Obviously not impossible, but the odds are so highly stacked against it that I’m not counting on anything. At this point I’m gritting my teeth and pulling for the Marlins to overtake the Phillies, because of all the bad options, the Marlins are the least bad. And then I’m rooting for the Dodgers to win the World Series over the Red Sox in an epic 7 game series featuring an epic comeback by David Ortiz, only outdone by Manny Ramirez’s .600/.800/.1750 line and 5 HR’s in Game 7.
I'm still pulling for Tampa
don’t seem likely though
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
I'd much prefer the Phillies over the Marlins
on the principle of only having real teams win titles. Same thing prevents me from rooting for any NHL team below 39 degrees N latitude.
I usually feel that way
but the Phillies, Braves, and Yankees are the exceptions to the rule. And at this point, I’d even take the Braves and Yanks over the Phillies. Hell, I’d take some bastardized Yankees/Cowboys/Lakers/Ohio St. combination over the Phillies.
The Braves are my only exception.
I hate those meeses to pieces. I’ve never gotten excited about the Yankees either way — they’re Microsoft, meh, whatever. The Phillies I think are great — perfect example of how to build a team and one we should emulate rather than rail against. The only other strong feelings I have are utterly despising Red Sox fans, but that just comes of living in Boston for 7 years.
Oppositional identity formation is cute and all, but I’ve just never been able to get into hating a strong competitor. Except the Braves. They I will always hate, even if (as I dearly hope) they spend the next thirty years in last place.
Oh I have no doubt their fans are awful. It's Philly.
And to be fair, about 40% of our fans as assholes when we win.
No risk of that currently. The magic is… um… subtle?
Halfway through the SD series: 45.5
10 SF
9 Col
8 Chi
6 Fla
5.5 Atl
4 Mil
3 Hou
They’ve nearly doubled their NGB since 7/28. If it wasn’t obvious before, the season is clearly over.
Hadn't done this for a while...
… and there’s a reason.
Mets WC NGB after 8/25: 60.5
15 Col
11 SF
9.5 Atl
9.5 Fla
6.5 Chi
4.5 Hou
4.5 Mil
Yes, I will be retiring this stat for the year, now. ;-)
If you’re scoring at home, or even if you’re alone, the Last Place NGB is now: 47
12 Was
10 Ari
9 Cin
8.5 Pit
7.5 SD
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