Mythbusters 2: The AAA Lineup
by Sam Page on Jul 30, 2009 6:00 AM EDT
in Analysis
79 comments
Hat tip to Lookout Landing for the inspiration a while back, and metsblog for the title. Part 1 here.
Cory Sullivan is _______: Versatile. Good at defense. A passable hitter. Not a reason Buffalo has been terrible, despite their great pitching staff. All of these descriptions are false. Every defensive metric rates Sullivan poorly, with our favorite, UZR, putting him at -11 runs/150 games in centerfield and -9 UZR/150 in rightfield. Plus/minus rates him as only below-average, not very bad, so he's got that going for him. I've heard Coors Field throws off these stats, but they use park factors, so that seems like a myth in itself. Putting aside his defense, however, one can marvel at his Coors-inflated .715 career-OPS. He's --.3 WAR already, and his "range" isn't suiting Citi Field, despite what you hear on the radio. He got promoted over Nick Evans, because Sullivan was "more versatile," despite Evans being a good defensive infielder and outfielder with pop and potential. Just because he's been played in all three OF spots, doesn't mean he's good at any of them.
Omir Santos is our defensive catcher: Brian Schneider has thrown out 35% of would be basestealers. Santos has thrown out 27%. Sometimes his throws barely reach second base. At seemingly every play at the plate, Santos fails to block home plate or lets the ball get away. But that's just part of catcher defense, right? According to Baseball Prospectus, Schneider has been a run above average, Santos has been four runs below average, and just for kicks, Ramon Castro has been four runs above average defensively. If you consider him the offensive superior to Schneider, that's a whole 'nother mess, but stop calling for him to start "for defense." We kept him because he calls a better game that Hippo, right?
Orlando Hudson>>>Luis Castillo: Luis Castillo's OBP eclipsed .400 and all people could talk about was trading him to make room for Orlando Hudson. I think Orlando Hudson is better than Luis Castillo, but it's a slight difference (2.2 v. 1.5 WAR) and it could change soon. Despite his hot start, Hudson's wOBA is only 3 points higher than Castillo's (.352 v. .349), and his gold-glove defense is declining even faster. After having a bad -5 RangeUZR rating last year, Hudson has already eclipsed -4 this year. Meanwhile, Castillo has improved his from -6 last year to -1.3 this year, due in large part to his knees healing. These two players are about as close in value as possible, and with Hudson's deteriorating range, Castilo could be the better player very soon.
Jeff Francoeur is fixed!: I've heard it all lately: stronger grip, more open stance, more relaxed. Pretty soon, we'll be reading stories about Francoeur's lucky underpants. Not to discount the possibility the change of scenery has helped him, but save the quick-fix stories for when he draws his first unintentional walk. The WINCOEUR12 database of gameday data I constructed will be following any signs of improvement from Jeffrey very carefully, but until I see something tangible, like a walk, I'll ignore the usual noise about minor modifications making 2 years-worth of improvements.
Omar Minaya's Job Security
The Mets are back in it: As one user put it: "When is 6.5 GB really not 6.5 GB? When you have 7 teams ahead of you." Despite the Mets' winning streak, Baseball Prospectus has the Mets chances at 3.7% (or just 1.8% PECOTA adjusted). That's a shot, in the most lenient use of the word, but not worth rushing Carlos Beltran back injured for or trading prospects for a LOOGY.
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Castillo has been better than anybody could have predicted
If we miss the playoffs by one game though, people will bring that play up all off season. That, and ya know, the usual Wright’s not clutch, Beltran is a pussy, and Jose is not a winner
Oh and you wrote “wining streak” and “trading prospectus” in the last paragraph
Great article as usual though Sam
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
by Evan_S on Jul 30, 2009 7:27 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
If the mets trade for a f-in' left handed reliever I might stab someone
Really? Misch! is the new Socks! Why one earth would the Mets need a LH reliever unless they were going to trade Feliciano – and why would they think they could get something better back for they’re LH reliever than what they give up to get the replacement.
Also – why in the world are the mets carrying 13 pitchers. I hope almost everybody’s ready to play both games today.
Catchers, Tatis, Reed, Sullivan, Castillo – only players that are getting a game off today. When was the last time Cora played 18 innings of baseball? 1994?
by mets81 on Jul 30, 2009 9:03 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I'm tempted to go Rec'ing everyone who mention Socks! (with the "!") and/or recognizes how awesome he is
by Michkin on Jul 30, 2009 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's my borderline
favourite Met. For no good reason other than his intangible awesomeness his complete non-recognition.
by deadspy3 on Jul 30, 2009 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I love mythbusting
Castillo’s success is particularly enjoyable because over-the-top hatred of a player who doesn’t really warrant it annoys me to no end. Luis had a shite year in 2008, but the way fans treated him you’d think he was John Rocker. Good for him. To the Mets collective fanbase: enough with the O-Dog stuff.
by James Kannengieser on Jul 30, 2009 9:17 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs
Does Omar not realize...
that he has another LOOGY? His name is Adam Bostick. He traded Lindstrom for him.
by Pat Andriola on Jul 30, 2009 9:34 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Theres this guy Wagner who should be back soon as well
"If I ever decide to do a book, I've already got the title...The bases were loaded and so was I."
-Jim Fregosi
by Schmidtxc on Jul 30, 2009 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The title is deceiving
I thought you were going to mythbust that our lineup is of AAA quality.
by Sokojoe on Jul 30, 2009 10:04 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
"the short-season A lineup"
King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president
by Sam Page on Jul 30, 2009 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think that I trust
UZR enough to make those conclusions, but maybe that’s just me. You can probably safely assume that Sullivan is average to below average defensively based on that data, but he’s still probably better than Evans. I don’t think that a difference of 2.7 is very significant, although I guess your point is that Castillo and Hudson are similar. You still want to be careful about confusing having a great season with being a better player.
You don't cheer for the Mets. You drink for the Mets.
by Kevin H on Jul 30, 2009 10:50 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Evans is actually not a bad fielder.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Jul 30, 2009 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My impression of Evans
is that he looked pretty lost out in LF, although that’s only based on a handful of games I’ve seen him play, so I’d be willing to revise that in the future.
You don't cheer for the Mets. You drink for the Mets.
by Kevin H on Jul 30, 2009 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Last year, in 128 or so innings in LF, Evans was
19.7 runs saved above average in terms of UZR/150. Obviously somewhat of a small sample, but thats the largest one we have. And yeah, defensive stats aren’t that reliable yet, but they’re still better than subjective things.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Jul 30, 2009 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
In 7 games this year
he’s dropped to -14.3 UZR/150 for his career. I’d argue that UZR not only is unreliable with a small sample size, it seems pretty worthless without a really large sample size. But yeah, my personal subjective analysis of “he looks lost” probably isn’t that reliable either.
You don't cheer for the Mets. You drink for the Mets.
by Kevin H on Jul 30, 2009 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Check his MiLB Total Zone numbers at 1B
They’re pretty damn good.
by All Shook Down on Jul 30, 2009 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I assumed we were talking about LF
since he’s being compared with Sullivan. I don’t doubt he’s a good 1B.
You don't cheer for the Mets. You drink for the Mets.
by Kevin H on Jul 30, 2009 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i'm bustin your myths
ok, well not really. But:
*Sullivan played balls off the wall (as opposed to balls to the wall) pretty good in Houston kept a couple Astros from taking second right before my very eyes. I was impressed by his competence and his performance in Houston at least, didn’t have me pining for Nick Evans, such as “I really wish it was Nick Evans out there, he’d know what to do.” It’s hard to get excited about the differences between the two.
*They kept Santos because he is cheaper and less always-injured than Castro. Also, it is well established that he is a much better dancer. And I have never heard the myth that he is a defensive anything.
*Luis Castillo uses two hands to wield his mighty slapping lumber. Can’t argue with you here.
- From the reports I read, it is Beltran himself who is getting antsy, and pressing the terrible idea of coming back before healed. I don’t think we can say the team is rushing him back here, though I suppose you could blame them for “allowing” it. Remember, Omar Minaya is terribly distraught by the forum in which he chose to raise questions of Adam Rubin’s integrity, so he probably doesn’t notice things like Carlos sneaking into the tennis ball machine, or the trade deadline.
*The way it is heavily qualified, the case of Frenchy is less a myth than a “we’re still suspicious.” Unless you’ve shaken his hand lately, you can’t really tease him for his stronger grip—he’s a man vice!! If myths are so important, than why don’t they appear on the scoreboard?
I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself into trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya
by itsmetsforme on Jul 30, 2009 11:32 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Remember, Omar Minaya is terribly distraught by the forum in which he chose to raise questions of Adam Rubin’s integrity, so he probably doesn’t notice things like Carlos sneaking into the tennis ball machine, or the trade deadline.
Ya know, the little things.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Jul 30, 2009 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Omir=defense is a staple of the Pepsi pregame at metsblarg
King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president
by Sam Page on Jul 30, 2009 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i really have to start reading that
or watching it. I’m a coke guy though.
I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself into trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya
by itsmetsforme on Jul 30, 2009 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"It’s hard to get excited about the differences between [Sullivan and Evans]."
I find it pretty easy to get excited about the fact that Evans is a much better hitter.
by JoshNY on Jul 30, 2009 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that seals it, you are going to have a much happier life than me
didn’t you see the way he SULLIED left field (and the basepaths) today?
I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself into trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya
by itsmetsforme on Jul 30, 2009 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And that he's only 23 and has reoom to improve.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Jul 30, 2009 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Francoeur
I’ll grant that there’s reason to take a “wait and see” approach to his recent performance, but since when are walks the ONLY tangible marker of performance?
by Straight Flushing on Jul 30, 2009 12:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think
Francoeur is such a ridiculously one-dimensional baseball player that he has made walks the only possible way of measuring his improvement!
by deadspy3 on Jul 30, 2009 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Francoeur's main problem offensively is patience
until he demonstrates patience, it’s easy to say he’s the same hitter on a very normal hot streak.
King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president
by Sam Page on Jul 30, 2009 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hmmm....I can see your point there.
But I doubt he’s going to go on a streak like David “Strikeout” Wright did.
by MetsGod on Jul 30, 2009 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Might wanna find a new nickname
like “franchise”
King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president
by Sam Page on Jul 30, 2009 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
For a while he was "Strikeout", though. Even you had to wonder if he would ever make contact...
…with a high fastball again.
by MetsGod on Jul 30, 2009 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Are you seriously saying Jeff Francouer>David Wright?
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Jul 30, 2009 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Uhh...NO. I was merely comparing the cold spell David went through...
…and stated my doubts that Frenchy would go through a similar spell.
by MetsGod on Jul 30, 2009 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wright's cold spell is a .690 OPS in July
Frenchy went through a cold spell all of last year when he had .653 OPS and half of this year with the Braves when he hit .634 so, yeah, Frenchy can’t go on a similar spell as Wright, his spells are much worse.
by Sokojoe on Jul 30, 2009 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I am no match for you guys.
I am not going to pretend to know what Jeff has done when he was a Brave. I just go by what I saw from David when he was struggling.
Personally, I don’t care for walks….I want RUNS…I want RBIs….but most of all, I WANT WINS. ‘Cause at the end of the day, it doesn’t matter how many times a player is on base; what matters is whether that player’s TEAM WON or not.
by MetsGod on Jul 30, 2009 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well
it doesn’t matter how many times a player is on base; what matters is whether that player’s TEAM WON or not.
and whether the team won or not has a lot to do with how many times they got on base. If you’re just concerned with the results, you can read the boxscore everyday, but we try and uncover the processes here, as they are more predictive of future results.
King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president
by Sam Page on Jul 30, 2009 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fine. You do that. I'll watch the games themselves and root for the Mets to get hits..
….RBIs….and WINS.
by MetsGod on Jul 30, 2009 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's really the point that I feel gets lost
Whatever makes you happy. Some people like to just drive a car, others like to look at the engine and figure out what makes it work. To each his own and all that.
by Sokojoe on Jul 30, 2009 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
can't we ALL get along?
(gets dragged from truck cab and beaten)
I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself into trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya
by itsmetsforme on Jul 30, 2009 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What's a truck cab?
Is that like a taxi that’s actually a truck?
;)
by MetsGod on Jul 30, 2009 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
its a BUZZWORD
to recall the Rodney King beatings ;)
which of course, weren’t funny at all.
I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself into trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya
by itsmetsforme on Jul 30, 2009 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Umm...I knew that, man.
But I’m just saying that you mentioned it as a Truck CAB.
to me, a picture of a Truck and a Cab comes to mind. One is not like the other….is it?
by MetsGod on Jul 30, 2009 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cool. No one's telling you you can't.
But starting every post with “You sabermetric nerds in your parents’ basements don’t look at RBIs, and that’s all that matters!!!” isn’t going to win you many friends, and if you do that, you’re just asking for someone to debate you.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Jul 30, 2009 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
First off, I didn't call you nerds...
…nor did I imply that you live in your parent’s basments(not that there’s anything wrong with that since you don’t have to pay rent….but anyway…).
I am finding that I am waaaaay out of my league here. I probably am…
by MetsGod on Jul 30, 2009 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No, that's not necessarily true.
It’s just frustrating when people (not necessarily you, but MSM and traditional writers) attack sabermetric stats by referring to people who are interested in them as nerds or people who don’t actually understand baseball, when that’s really not the case at all.
And hey, no one’s trying to scare anyone away here. We just all have to find a balance between heated debate and acceptance of others’ opinions. But bringing up debates about the merits of a whole group of statistics when they’ve been universally supported by quote-unquote “good” baseball writers like Neyer, James, and Joe Pos, etc., is just sort of a fruitless task. No one’s going to “win”, and it’s unlikely one debate would cause someone’s entire philosophy on baseball statistics to shift.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Jul 30, 2009 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't really think MetsGod did what you're alluding to though.
by Sokojoe on Jul 30, 2009 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's why I wrote that first sentence with the parantheses
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Jul 30, 2009 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I just want to watch the Team drive in runs and Win Ballgames.
I leave the nuts-and-bolts to the Sabermetric “nice people” here. (don’t want to use that other word since people took offense).
by MetsGod on Jul 30, 2009 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i'm with yous, sokojoe and squid
to paraphrase the president, we should look for teachable moments not your momma! moments.
he may not know what the cab of a truck is, but he doesn’t seem that belligerent to me; where else can you go for reasonable informed mets analysis?
I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself into trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya
by itsmetsforme on Jul 30, 2009 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
DUDE, he got dragged from his TRUCK.
Cab Shmab….
by MetsGod on Jul 30, 2009 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i guess those auto industry ads really aren't working
I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself into trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya
by itsmetsforme on Jul 30, 2009 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Have you seen how much they cost?
and they say Madoff ripped us off….
by MetsGod on Jul 30, 2009 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I understand, and to a degree you're right.
RBIs and Runs are indicative stats. They tell us what HAS HAPPENED, regardless of luck and skill and variance. And yes, Francouer has exceeded expectations thus far since being traded. However, that’s the thing. 20 games isn’t enough of a sample size to challenge multiple seasons worth of statistics. Predictive stats (which many sabermetrics are) are good for predicting what will continue to happen as time goes on. It’s like saying, “If a guy gets 5 RBIs in 9 games, will he end up with 90 RBIs in 162 games?” It doesn’t exactly work like that, going forward.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Jul 30, 2009 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good point, Squid.
By the way, is it just me or is the term “Sample Size” seem to be the New BUZZWORD here?
by MetsGod on Jul 30, 2009 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why would you say that? He's done it before.
And when you also don’t walk and don’t play a premium defensive position, a cold streak is exponentially more damaging to your value. Because not only do you not get those extra base hits to fall in, but you don’t get on base to help the rest of your team too. An important part of baseball is the ability to get on base. David Wright, for all his strikeout issues this year, is still controlling the plate with the same discipline he’s always had, so those would seem to be as much of an anomaly as any other statistical noise, IMO.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Jul 30, 2009 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Stop trying to pick a fight.
King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president
by Sam Page on Jul 30, 2009 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not.
where’d you get that idea from?
by MetsGod on Jul 30, 2009 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
talking to squid
hit the up button
King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president
by Sam Page on Jul 30, 2009 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think I did anything anyone else didn't
but I’ll be less antagonistic.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Jul 30, 2009 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah...I mean do walks help win ballgames? Sure.
but not all the time ‘cause if you walk, your teammates have to drive you in and if they don’t, then that walk becomes nothing more than part of your career statistics which have zero bearing on the game you’re trying to win in the here and now.
Why are people so OBSESSED with Frenchy not walking? You would think people would be more pleased that he’s driven in more runs in 19 games than Church has the entire season this year…
by MetsGod on Jul 30, 2009 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
mid-day update
*Frenchy FITS IN GOOD WITH THE GUYS. He goes GOLFING and out to PONDEROSA with his teammates. I think that argument is over.
*Sully’s solid play continues to widen the AA-Ron Darling gap
I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself into trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya
by itsmetsforme on Jul 30, 2009 3:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Wait
Ponderosa is still around? Google time. It’ll probably end up in disappointment, like when I Google Joe’s Crab Shack and Sonic and find that the nearest locations are like 300 miles away.
by James Kannengieser on Jul 30, 2009 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, Ponderosa still exists
I saw a few while out on the road trip and was duly surprised.
"He's definitely mixing it into his repertoire. That's French for 'repertoire' " - Keith Hernandez
by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Jul 30, 2009 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
oddly yellow steak
ahh memories
I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself into trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya
by itsmetsforme on Jul 30, 2009 10:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Personally
I recall long afternoons chowing on the fried chicken wings. I mean, if you offer a $5 all-you-can-eat buffet you’d have to expect high school kids to abuse the offer.
"He's definitely mixing it into his repertoire. That's French for 'repertoire' " - Keith Hernandez
by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Jul 31, 2009 12:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hey Sam, question for you :
Just What Exactly Am I Looking At Here?
by MetsGod on Jul 30, 2009 3:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The movement of all pitches (vertical v. horizontal) since Francoeur was traded to the Mets
a pretty pointless graph, but I’m going to be doing some cool stuff with the data soon.
King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president
by Sam Page on Jul 30, 2009 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
could it be interpreted to mean either
that pitchers
A) know they can get him out anywhere (my guess)
B) haven’t found an area of the zone where he is obviously weak
?
I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself into trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya
by itsmetsforme on Jul 30, 2009 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Could be both.
Sam could make a graph showing what pitches get him out most of the time and what pitches get clobbered by Frenchy.
by MetsGod on Jul 30, 2009 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not Sam, but I can help out.
Each circle is an individual pitch thrown against Frenchy. The x-axis is the horizontal movement the ball makes from where a normal “straight” pitch would go. The y-axis is the vertical movement the ball makes.
This one’s kinda hard to read, but these are usually pretty good (but not for hitters, they’re usually better for pitchers in terms of evaluating the control of their pitches.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Jul 30, 2009 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What part of the graph
tells you how he hit the pitches?
by David G on Jul 30, 2009 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
none of it
working on it…
King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president
by Sam Page on Jul 30, 2009 6:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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