Niese and his coachs stated that his pitch selection was becoming predictable. This is why we can’t just look at numbers when analyzing players. Because, while Niese had a high BABIP, would it really be unlucky if he was predictable. For example, if a pitcher only threw outside, low fastballs (Walter Johnson style) to hitters, eventually hitters would figure this out and start timing and going the other way with the ball. Thus, the latter pitcher’s BABIP would be way above the average and shouldn’t be expected to come down just because from regression. So, while Niese had solid K and BB rates when he was “bad,” I think adding the two seamer and mixing in other pitches more has helped to make him less “unlucky.”