Who Is The Real Angel Pagan?

by James Kannengieser on Jul 31, 2009 6:00 AM EDT Comment 24 comments

Angel Pagan has performed admirably this season, both at the plate and in the field. His .348 wOBA plays quite well for a center fielder, and would even be respectable for a corner outfielder in the National League. His defense has been above average in limited time, buoyed by a valuable throwing arm according to the advanced defensive metrics. Throw in strong baserunning (last night's 1st inning debacle notwithstanding) and he's been a ~1 WAR performer. Pretty good for a reserve outfielder pressed into full time duty due to a rash of injuries. However, it's not likely to last and any hope that he has a spot as a Mets starter in the future is misguided.

In 2517 career minor league at-bats, Pagan sports a .281/.340/.374 line. This includes just 18 home runs, good for one every 140 at-bats. None of these stats are impressive, and it's pretty amazing he has made it onto a major league roster. Even Jeremy Reed enjoyed some minor league success, posting an .864 OPS during his career on the farm. Additionally, Pagan's offensive showing this year is a bit of a mirage. His BABIP of .360 is way above his career figure. Considering he's now 28 years old, his career major league line of .267/.321/.409 seems more telling. We can't ignore thousands of career at-bats when projecting his future performance.

Besides hitting, another of Pagan's issues is injury. He can't seem to stay on the field, whether it's last year's unlucky shoulder injury or this year's groin pull. Like Alex Cora, Pagan is better in small doses.

Pagan won't have much trade value this offseason, barring a miraculous rest of the season. The Mets would be better off holding onto him as a 4th/5th outfielder who has the ability to play center field. With Carlos Beltran likely requiring a decent amount of days off going forward (assuming he plays at all next season), Pagan has some value as a once or twice a week fill-in. Credit Omar Minaya for re-acquiring Pagan for two non-factor players before last season, but let's get real - he is not a 150-game, everyday major league outfielder.

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Comments

All fair points

We should appreciate the contribution he is making now, but yes, he is ultimately a stop-gap. However, he’s a good guy to have on the bench long-term, as you say. If the outfield had been Sheffield/Beltran/Franchouerch with Reed and Pagan as the defensive subs/spot starters, that would have been a pretty nice OF season, I would have thought.

by deadspy3 on Jul 31, 2009 6:08 AM EDT reply actions

good post

Pagan is probably better than chavez
about beltran: If he knew he needed to have this surgery, than why hasn’t he had it already? I’d rather have him back for next year than not have him.

"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"

by firejerrynow on Jul 31, 2009 6:58 AM EDT reply actions

Blasphemy

Pagan is probably better than Chavez.

Take it back.

by Zwill on Jul 31, 2009 9:05 AM EDT up reply actions

Endy's defense is pretty sick.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jul 31, 2009 9:22 AM EDT up reply actions

he's an endy-type player

but I know which one I would take in a heartbeat. Comparisons with the legendary Chavez aside he’s a good player to keep around. He’s valuable as a 4th outfielder, and has a decent bat for a replacement level player. His defense is solid, and he’s fast on the bases. I’d hold on to him if I were the mets.

by KeithsMoustache on Jul 31, 2009 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions

I say stick with him

Ride ‘em while he’s hot right now and enjoy it.

I’d bring him back, too. If he can stay healthy, he’s shown enough that he’s good off the bench and can fill in for an extended period of time (right now).

That staying healthy part seems like the biggest issue, though.

by The 'Ropolitans on Jul 31, 2009 8:58 AM EDT reply actions

Pagan

I think that you could get away with Pagan starting in CF on a team with high-quality corner OF bats, b/c of his defense/baserunning/low cost.

But I don’t think the Mets, as presently constructed, have the offense to sustain his bat, and in either case, they will need to add a lefty to the middle of the order, somehow…

by sjohnson125 on Jul 31, 2009 9:23 AM EDT reply actions

Hey James

Do you work on Park Ave? I’m right at 245 Park interning at MLB.

by Pat Andriola on Jul 31, 2009 10:20 AM EDT reply actions

Check yo email Pat

by James Kannengieser on Aug 1, 2009 8:21 AM EDT up reply actions

And on Pagan

I think the most promising aspect is that he has shown steady improvement and could be a great asset as a fourth outfielder next year. He had a LD% of 23% last year and is at 19.8% this year. Plus, the guy has played plus defense UZR-wise in LF, RF, and most importantly, CF, since becoming a Met.

I’ve liked Pagan ever since I saw him do this against us in 2007. I was at the game and had good seats, and the ball didn’t fly off his bat like a towering shot. It was like he cracked a whip. His swing was meant for line drives, and it’s shown over the past two seasons.

by Pat Andriola on Jul 31, 2009 10:27 AM EDT reply actions

Where's my

trade deadline apple sauce! NOM

by TheBigStapler on Jul 31, 2009 11:55 AM EDT reply actions

Is Beltran's career going to end like Mantle's?

A centerfielder whose legs become shot at a relatively young age and he’s reduced to limping around and playing 1st base? Maybe they need to think about trading Beltran for 60 cents on the dollar if he can come back this year and appear somewhat healthy. All the reports on him are very depressing.

by David G on Jul 31, 2009 12:01 PM EDT reply actions

Pagan is a very good fit

as a 4th/5th outfielder. He can be acceptable as a starter, but not someone a team with a healthy payroll should be forced to consider plan A. I hope the Mets hang on to him, as he’s one of the few bench pieces that I really like.

"If I ever decide to do a book, I've already got the title...The bases were loaded and so was I."

-Jim Fregosi

by Schmidtxc on Jul 31, 2009 12:03 PM EDT reply actions

Good post

I’d be interested to know what his defensive numbers were in the Minor Leagues and if they show that his defense this year is an abberation

"I reject your reality and substitute my own"
-Adam Savage

by blueandorange4life on Jul 31, 2009 12:20 PM EDT reply actions

It would be hard to use his minor league numbers to prove anything about his defense

Defense tends to be one of those skills that develops, what he did as an 18 year old really doesn’t have much bearing here. He’s been splitting most of the last few season between AAA and the majors, I’d think just looking at those numbers would lead to a more accurate judgement.

"If I ever decide to do a book, I've already got the title...The bases were loaded and so was I."

-Jim Fregosi

by Schmidtxc on Jul 31, 2009 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions

Minorleaguesplits

Has Pagan’s minor league defense in recent years as above average. It goes back to 2005.

by James Kannengieser on Jul 31, 2009 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions

Thanks

Good to see he’s been above average and that I was wrong

"I reject your reality and substitute my own"
-Adam Savage

by blueandorange4life on Jul 31, 2009 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions

James I was

going to write a piece very similar to this, with a similar conclusion, that Pagan would be a good fit as a fourth or fifth outfielder.

Another thing that you didn’t mention is that his righty splits are pretty good .292/.351./432/.783. I think that can justify him even being a platoon player with a power left-handed bat. (Nick Evans).

For a player going into his physical prime and has shown steady improvement in his first three injury shortened years, check fangraphs, I don’t think it is unreasonable to expect Pagan to be a slightly above average corner outfielder for the next 2-4 years.

James where did you find all the minor league numbers? I could only find Pagan minor league stats since 2006 when he was with the cubs.

by Delgado on Jul 31, 2009 12:21 PM EDT reply actions

Good point about the platoon splits

A Pagan/Evans platoon would be a lot more palatable if the Mets somehow acquired a big bat in the OF (hint: Matt Holliday) Francoeur in one corner, Pagan/Evans in another and Beltran’s balky knee in center would get ugly.

Also, check out thebaseballcube.com for extensive minor league and college stats for players.

by James Kannengieser on Jul 31, 2009 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions

wOBA by position?

His .348 wOBA plays quite well for a center fielder, and would even be respectable for a corner outfielder in the National League.

Can someone remind me of the order or relative expectations of different positions? I always see mentions of it like the quoted sentence, but I’m never sure which positions have the highest and lowest expectations.

by gabefarkas on Jul 31, 2009 1:02 PM EDT reply actions

Baseball Reference

Click here for the 2009 NL splits – scroll down to see average offensive production by position. Not much difference between LF, CF, RF this year, but historically the corner spots have bigger bats. Note: wOBA isn’t listed, but if you go here you can find wOBA by team. Add them up and divide by 16 to find a rough average. Average wOBA for CF’s in 2009 is .339. Last season it was .335.

by James Kannengieser on Jul 31, 2009 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions

thanks!

I had no idea BR or FG had that sort of in-depth info by position.

by gabefarkas on Jul 31, 2009 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions

If the Mets continue to employ Jeff Francoeur as a RF in 2010

They’re going to need a good left handed hitter to compliment him and Pagan isn’t that. I’m going under the assumption that the GM (whoever that is) acquires a legitimate left fielder. That leaves the fifth outfielder’s spot for Pagan, but personally, I’d prefer a defensive ace (Endy! is a free agent, though coming off of knee surgery) to fill that role.

by All Shook Down on Aug 1, 2009 7:33 PM EDT reply actions