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Why is Jon Niese still in the minors?

This is my first FanPost here at AA, I've mainly been a lurker, so if there is anything painfully obvious I am missing or this has already been covered, I hope someone will tell me so I don't look like a jackass :). 

The Mets rotation hasn't exactly been their strong suit this year.  Mets' starters have a cumulative 4.61 tERA* (tRA scaled to ERA instead of RA) and a 4.42 FIP.  Once you get past Santana, Livan and Plefrey, you have a bunch of replacement level scrubs who really have no place on a major league team. 

I'm talking specifically about Oliver Perez (who Minaya thought was somehow worth 36 million), Tim Redding and Fernando Nieve.  This year, those pitchers have a combined 5.26 FIP; which would be fine coming from an inexperienced prospect with potential, but none of those players fit that description.  Nieve is the youngest of the trio, and he is 26 and hasn't been a starter in the majors in 3 years partially due to injury; although his career 4.23 minor league FIP suggests he was never that much of a prospect to begin with.  Anyway, the point is that none of these guys have much potential and are likely pitching as well as they ever will.   

That brings us back to Niese.  If you are going to be giving half of your starts to replacement level pitchers, why not at least give some of them to a youngster with some potential to improve on that in the near future?  With the Mets not exactly swimming in starting pitching prospects, 23 year old Jon Neise rises to the top.

According to minorleaguesplits.com, he has a career 3.68 FIP in the minors (along with a solid 52.1% ground ball rate), and it has been a combined 3.61 in AAA over the past 2 years.  In limited time in the majors, he has a 3.66 FIP.  ZIPS projects him to have a 4.39 FIP this year which is almost exactly average.  

Given that the guys he would replace would likely be replacement level, he would be expected to add about 1 win in the second half of the season if he pitches 100 innings.  That 1 marginal win, could be pretty damn important to the Mets.  Over the past 2 years, they have missed out on the playoffs by exactly a win, and the division looks to be very tightly packed again this year.  Of course none of that is even considering that Niese is a legitimate prospect, and it would probably be beneficial to give him more playing time in the majors.

So with that all in mind, let's take a look at Niese's stuff as a pitcher using Pitchfx.  Unfortunately, Niese has only pitched 24.2 innings in the majors and there is no Pitchfx data in the minors... so our sample size will be small.  Still it would be nice to see how his stuff looks and even the small amount of data should allow us to make reasonable assumptions as to his stuff right now.  As far as I can tell, he has thrown 3 distinct pitches; a fastball, a curveball and a changeup.  Here they are, mapped out in flight path form:

Niese_medium

If it's a little fuzzy, you can click on it for a larger view.

That graph is pretty self explanatory.  It basically shows the movement paths of all of his pitches, or at least a pretty good guess based on various data from gameday.

Of course you can make any conclusions you want using this graph, but as you can see, he has almost no horizontal movement on his pitches.  His fastball/combo looks decent, as the two pitches start off on the same plane and then the changeup has some decent drop to it; however, the speed differential isn't great.  His curve is a real yacker, with an enormous "hump" to it and over 11 inches of vertical movement.  He also throws it from a different release point.  That combined with the giant hump means it should be easily detectable early in the path, meaning it likely won't be a power pitch for him in the majors, but as Dave Allen noted at FanGraphs, the fact that it has so much movement *should* make it a plus pitch.  Overall, he has pretty standard stuff for a lefty, maybe a bit above average.

I could show you his pitch location graph, but given the small sample size it wouldn't be very representative.  Going by his career walk rate in the minors ( about 3.0 per 9), that one time I actually saw him pitch :), I would say his control is currently about average, maybe a bit below.

Conclusion:

Niese has put up good numbers in the minors, and is only 23 years old and likely with room for improvement.  In limited time in the majors, he has demonstrated roughly average stuff and has good results overall.  He is projected to be almost exactly a league average pitcher this year.  I say, bring him up!  He would almost certainly represent an upgrade over the current 4/5 starters on the Mets which given their placement on the playoff odds scale could be huge; and unlike them, he might actually contribute to the team in future seasons.

2 recs  |  Comment 25 comments

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Preaching to the Choir!

First off, welcome to AA! But yeah, many of us agree the Niese should be up and starting.
Here is what I think stopped the Mets from calling him up again, pitcher by pitcher.
Johan: No Brainer
Big PELF: No Brainer
Livan Hernandez: For a man who came into spring training wthout a prayer to make the team and now is arguably the teams third best starter. You can’t give me a reason why Niese should take this spot.
Tim Redding: His contract, that is why he is here. Now he’s in the bullpen to make room for Perez but he’s not going anywhere.
Fernando Nieve: After his first three starts there was no way you could take him out of the rotation. I think his shine has worn off. This is where Niese goes until Maine gets back.

"We have to find a way to play better, there's no doubt. Overall. I'm not pointing fingers at anybody. Offense, defense, pitching -- we have to find a way to play better. The reality of this is, coming here to Pittsburgh and being swept -- personally, I feel embarrassed." -- Carlos Beltran

by EMSfan9 on Jul 5, 2009 4:18 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Yeah I figured it might be like that

I would argue that Niese should be in the rotation ahead of Hernandez, who projects for a 4.94 FIP the rest of the season, but given his success so far, it’s tough to take him out. Redding definitely seems like the guy to go. He is only on a 1 year deal, and has been the definition of replacement level so far.

Derosa.

by vivaelpujols on Jul 5, 2009 5:11 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

As EMSfan9 says, preaching to the choir!

I love Jon Niese, I really hope Omar wakes up and promotes him.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jul 5, 2009 9:59 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

His "struggles" earlier in the season seemed to cool the Mets' brass on Niese

They obviously don’t look at BABIP, which hovered ~.400 for much of the first two months of the season. The Mets organization did him no favors either when they slotted Javier Valentin at 3B, Mike Lamb at 2B, Argenis Reyes at SS and Cory Sullivan in CF behind him defensively. Unfortunately, one could write that off as major league preparation, for the Mets defense isn’t much better.

by All Shook Down on Jul 5, 2009 12:09 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

hey

nice to see you here, btw you should update your scores in the Pat Burrell league spreadsheet

the obvious answer is that the upper management doesnt see through his early season struggles (horrible defense, bad luck and slight underperformance) and see his horrible ERA and record…then again Nieve has been a good NY story and Redding was penciled to be everyday starter, while Livan has been adequate, so they probably dont think he is better than any of them

by viktor06 on Jul 5, 2009 1:05 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I give Nieve one more chance...

If he continues to have a WHIP higher than that of your neighborhood dominatrix, move him to the pen, cut Redding, and give Niese the ball.

Everyone is entitled to be stupid, but Jerry abuses the privilege.

by AnthonyR on Jul 5, 2009 1:19 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Niese should have it now.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jul 5, 2009 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It was in self defense

the babies were swarming all around him

"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."

by Evan_S on Jul 6, 2009 5:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

interesting

If he can throw that curve for a strike, it could be pretty nasty.

I imagine a lot of batters would lay off that thing.

by hotspur on Jul 5, 2009 8:47 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

niesehater09@mets.com

Everyone is entitled to be stupid, but Jerry abuses the privilege.

by AnthonyR on Jul 6, 2009 12:32 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah

It’s not like he was pitching bad this year. His K:BB ratio was 5:1 in his brief time in the majors this year.

Derosa.

by vivaelpujols on Jul 6, 2009 3:58 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

But he got rocked by Chipper Jones a couple times!

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Meddler on Jul 6, 2009 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Seriously, who gets rocked by THAT guy?

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jul 6, 2009 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I was actually at that game

Sitting in the Pepsi Porch, in the front row, and the first seat in foul territory right next to the pole. Chipper came up the first time and I just remember thinking “uh oh, that’s the RF gap”. Then he came up the second time and I just remember thinking “uh oh, that’s the LF gap”.

But yeah, it’d probably be quicker to count the number of Mets pitchers who have never gotten rocked by Chipper than it would be to count the number that have.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Meddler on Jul 6, 2009 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Niese is 8th in tra* in IL

At 4.09, which is pretty good for tRA*, Tommy Hanson being at 3.93 for example. He’s ahead of a bunch of guys in the majors right now or recently: Charlie Morton, Lucas French, Swarzak, David Hernandez, Matt Maloney, Homer Bailey (not that all of those guys are all that good)…he’s way ahead of Michael Bowden or Carlos Carrasco, ahead of Wade Davis. Some of the guys ahead of him are amonmg the best prospects in the game: Hanson, Tillman and Buchholz. He’s not that level, but he’s among the next rung down and worthy of a sustained shot.

by wobatus on Jul 6, 2009 5:21 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

my bad

he is behind matt maloney.

by wobatus on Jul 6, 2009 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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