Lets play Mets GM
On WFAN before Jon Heyman was saying what the Mets would have to give up in order to get Adam Dunn. He said an Ike Davis-type and Jon Niese would get Dunn here. So I figured I'd bring up the discussion. First, would two middle to upper tier prospects be enough? And second, if you were Omar and that deal was on the table would you make it?
over 2 years ago
dave the rave
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If that's what it costs, we are moronic for not doing it.
Absolutely moronic…not as moronic though as not addressing it in the offseason for nothing.
Omar needs to bite the bullet, admit the mistake, and not worry about fans getting on him for giving up 2 promising players for someone that we should have had for nothing.
We are going to be in the same situation at 1B/LF next year because there is hardly anyone available in Free Agency. Get it done.
Everyone is entitled to be stupid, but Jerry abuses the privilege.
yeah
I mean it’s pretty clear at this point not even Dunn will make a huge difference. But again I think if the Mets want to have this “win now” attitude you got to pull the string. Bring him in and hopefully in a few weeks you will see Reyes and Beltran. Them back, plus Dunn, Wright, and Sheff and your lineup is starting to take shape again for a late run. I think if it’s only two prospects don’t hang on to what they could be. You know what Dunn is and you know how he can help the club.
What I can see happening though is Omar making a move that will be too little too late and have the Mets fall a game or two short…again.
"I told him the next time he does that, I’m going to get my blade out and cut him, right on the field. Hey, I’m a gangsta now. You go gangsta on me, I’m gonna have to get you now."
- Jerry Manuel
Honestly
I’d rather keep Niese and Davis, but if the Mets aren’t going to call up Niese like, right now, then I don’t think they’ll ever put any faith into him. We might as well get something we KNOW will perform at a major league level, whether or not it’s his fault or not.
no way do I give up Niese in that deal
Dunn alone can’t save this season and his defense is still as bad as everyone thought it was. His power while still impressive will also be diminished at Citi. Niese is looking better and better as a prospect as time goes on and the Mets need pitching, now and in the future, as much as they need a bat. Dunn was worth it when he didn’t cost prospects but its a different ballgame now. Fangraphs has him as only slightly more valuable than Nyjar Morgan.
Why does everyone think of it in terms of saving the season?
The guy is not 3 players, he’s 1 player. He is interjecting a 40 HR a year bat in to the line-up. That’s all. It will help us in the short term (you can’t deny that we are offensively more dangerous with him), after the All Star break and in to next year.
His value is at 1b, not in the outfield. He would play there until Delgado comes back (if he does) and next year. He would move to the outfield periodically after Del comes back, but bear in mind, this is a 38 year old player coming off of hip surgery. He will need rest.
I like Niese (I don’t really like Davis) and think he will be a nice pitcher, but I can see him getting squeezed out easily by the next hot prospect or Free Agent Acquisition.
Everyone is entitled to be stupid, but Jerry abuses the privilege.
Your points are valid
but Dunn’s fielding is really a drag on his overall value. I don’t see a switch to 1B improving that. He’s a great hitter but he really belongs in the AL at this point. Since I consider Niese one of the top three (healthy) SPs in our organization right now, I don’t think it makes sense to trade him and throw in Ike Davis to boot.
Why is this still a question
Adam Dunn CANNOT play first base. His career UZR/150 there is -12.7, and that hardly tells the whole story, since its dragged up by the positive numbers he managed to post pre-2005. Since 2005, its a ridiculous -7.2 in 456 innings (about 50 games). It would be reckless and unacceptable to sacrifice that level of run prevention plus Niese for the sake of extra offensive runs. It would absolutely decimate overall run prevention for the rest of the season.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Jul 6, 2009 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions
At least he hits
It would absolutely decimate overall run prevention for the rest of the season.
And Dan Murphy is helping?
Do you think you are getting a Gold Glove Defensive player who hits 40 HR’s for Niese and Davis? Come on.
Everyone is entitled to be stupid, but Jerry abuses the privilege.
No
Buy why am I giving up the third best pitcher in the organization and 10-15 defensive runs for an extra 40 offensive runs? How many runs would Niese have saved you over the worst of the three headed monster that is Redding/Nieve/Livan? Its a net gain of 10 runs at most. So for a one win upgrade you give up six seasons of a guy who’s already just about an average major league pitcher and a pretty decent first base prospect. No spank you.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Jul 6, 2009 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions
That's where we differ. I do not value him as highly as you.
And I’m sure I value Davis waaaaaaaaaaaay less than you.
If you valuation for him could be validated, I would agree with you.
Everyone is entitled to be stupid, but Jerry abuses the privilege.
Even still
You’re giving up all those years of service time for “unproven” players for a year and a half of Adam Dunn at the market rate. There are better trades to be made, and this one isn’t carrying the Mets anywhere particularly far. Dunn’s WAR so far this year is only 0.9.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Jul 6, 2009 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions
No offense, AnthonyR
You’re a smart guy. But again, no offense…I think Meddler is the most knowledgable about our prospects here on AA.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
No, he is very knowledgable, absolutely. More so than myself.
Niese, I will give him because he knows more about him than I do, I’m sure.
Davis…he does not.
I’m curious though Meddler, who don’t you like? Overall, your evaluations seem to be pretty positive.
Everyone is entitled to be stupid, but Jerry abuses the privilege.
He doesn't like Marte
or Pena. And I think he doesn’t have as much Rustich love as some do.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
What can I say, I'm a positive dude :)
Seriously though, there’s lots to be positive about on the farm right now, and all the Top 50 and Top 100 lists your seeing pop up as fanposts on Sickels’ site are reflective of that. And yeah, Squid pretty much nailed my dislikes. I wasn’t a huge Gee fan either to begin with, but obviously that’s not as relevant. Don’t care much for Kunz. And I’m probably still the only person who would still take Kyle Allen over Familia or Carson, but I still won’t vote him ahead of them on the community list in all likelihood.
Oh, and I don’t like Adam Dunn. Anyone who was around for my grand discovery of AA can attest to that, as I wound up writing about 500 pages worth of stuff about how bad an idea I thought an Adam Dunn signing would have been. My understanding of the game has changed since then, but I’d still make some of the same arguments.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Jul 6, 2009 8:25 PM EDT up reply actions
I recall
you being anti-Dunn. I was all like, “walks are teh awesome! 40 HR!”
I remain steadfast in my conviction that Dunn as the third OF (Beltran and Church as the other two) was livable, if not quite adequate, defensively, and he’d be a terrific fit in the lineup. But I sure as hell wouldn’t trade Niese and Havens or Davis for him.
Yeah
Obviously, I didn’t predict the massive failings of Tatis and Murph or the ridiculous run of health problems. But it took both of those combined for me to think in retrospect “yeah, it’d be nice to have Dunn about now”. If you assumed the more predictable outcomes, that Tatis and Murph regressed by weren’t absurd failures, and that at least three of the Mets four big bats stayed healthy, the Dunn upgrade still wouldn’t have been worth $10 mil. Then again, the other part of my argument was that said $10 mil could have been spent more efficiently, obviously an erroneous argument when talking about Omar here.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Jul 6, 2009 9:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, but what people fail to realize in the value that he could have above the WAR numbers.
We are 2nd in the NL in OBP. We are 9th in Runs Scored. Inserting a power hitter of his caliber in to this line-up is gold. WAR does not take in to account the current constitution of our team and his value when slotted in to our line-up.
We are desperate for some of those Donkey Blasts.
Everyone is entitled to be stupid, but Jerry abuses the privilege.
Perhaps, but this overstates it a lot
Since as a pure LF, that’d mean taking ABs away from Sheffield. I guess you could play Sheff in RF, but then the same idea of non-linear cumulative value would apply to outfield defense, which would be absolutely abysmal with an alignment of Dunn, Church, and Sheffield. Those would be some big gaps for hitters to shoot for. So even when Beltran came back, the optimal alignment would contain at least Church (RF) and also one of Murphy, Tatis, or Evans. In the end, it’d still be a marginal upgrade unless Sheff hit the shelf.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Jul 6, 2009 11:35 PM EDT up reply actions
An outfield of Dunn, Church, and Sheff
would be one of, if not the worst outfield defensive ever. And poor Beltran, when he comes back that guy would have cover 2/3 of an outfield by himself on bad knees. That’s just cruel.
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
Dunn would play 1st until at least August when Del returns.
After that, he would need to fill in occasionally to give him some rest (38 yo guy returning from hip surgery) and play LF against righthanders. Sheff should have his workload cut from it’s current to keep him viable.
And yes, occasionally if Pelf is pitching, I throw Dunn, Beltran and Sheff out there. Very small doses though.
I would not want to throw Dunn, Church and Sheff out there. That’s just mean to whomever is pitching (Stokes would see this alignment often).
Everyone is entitled to be stupid, but Jerry abuses the privilege.
But Dunn's defense is even worse at 1B
He’s just not viable there at all. See All Shook Down’s argument below.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Jul 7, 2009 1:33 AM EDT up reply actions
But I want Donkey Blasts!
I want to score runs in bunches like the Phillies and win a division!
Most of all, I want there to be a better option that we could look at.
Everyone is entitled to be stupid, but Jerry abuses the privilege.
I have heard a lot about Niese
3+ years worth. Where is he? I don’t understand why a pitcher with so much upside is being held back so we can watch Redding go 5 innings of 4 run ball. I am not agreeing or disagreeing because I am sure you know the prospects better than me but how come they can’t bring him up? Why hold onto him if we won’t ever see him. If you don’t bring him up now, when will you?
It would suck to find out he’s a dud in two or three years, hypothetically speaking.
"I told him the next time he does that, I’m going to get my blade out and cut him, right on the field. Hey, I’m a gangsta now. You go gangsta on me, I’m gonna have to get you now."
- Jerry Manuel
by dave the rave on Jul 6, 2009 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions
He had a bad first two months of ERA
That’s the only real reason, and its a bad one.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Jul 6, 2009 8:26 PM EDT up reply actions
unreal
I mean you’d think after watching the Reddings and Nieves of the world pitch you’d give the kid a start. I just shake my head now..
"I told him the next time he does that, I’m going to get my blade out and cut him, right on the field. Hey, I’m a gangsta now. You go gangsta on me, I’m gonna have to get you now."
- Jerry Manuel
by dave the rave on Jul 6, 2009 8:55 PM EDT up reply actions
this is an organization
that, for example, bought into Santos’s small sample of “success” and PAID another team to take Castro. In terms of roster management, the Mets are sub-replacement level.
Lance Broadway?
Where’s he going to be on our prospect list? Haha…ha…ha…
…
…
ugh.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
the fact that the Mets could have signed Dunn for $10M as late as February 1 absolutely kills me
Good work, Omar. Now you can pay in dollars and talent.
We've got ourselves a ball club, the Mets of New York town!
NO, a thousand times no
I couldn’t live with knowing that Omar eschewed signing Dunn in favor of handing Daniel Fucking Hammer .665 OPS Murphy a starting LF job, and then turned around and traded our most ML-ready prospect — who would be our third-best starting pitcher, easy — and a solid, rapidly developing 1B prospect for the same guy we could have just had for money.
And I love Dunn.
While I definitely understand this sentiment
if there’s a good deal on the table, I don’t think we can say no just b/c he should have been signed in the offseason. Although, it would prove once and for all that Omar is just making it up as he goes along.
Dunn's been worth almost 1 WAR
I have to say that I’d rather have Niese and Davis. It’s not even a close call for me.
I desperately wanted Dunn in the offseason, but I do not want to trade anything beyond a Parnell for the guy. He can’t play 1B and he really can’t even play the outfield (-27.8 UZR/150).
I'm not sure about this trade
basically b/c I’ve never felt I have a good grasp on what minor league talent is appropriate to give up for proven major leaguers. My point was more for if there’s a “good deal” on the table, not that this necessarily is one.
The distinction here
is that Niese isn’t minor league talent. A reasonable argument can be made that he’s a 2-3 win player right now, which would be more valuable than Dunn =.
No, I wouldn't do it.
Our rotation sucks too much to do that trade. If we can change Niese to Dillon Gee Brant Rustich?, I’d do it.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
Yeah,
From what I heard Niese would have to be a definite. I think Heyman said the other player is where the leverage would be. Ike Davis or he said someone like Reese Havens.
"I told him the next time he does that, I’m going to get my blade out and cut him, right on the field. Hey, I’m a gangsta now. You go gangsta on me, I’m gonna have to get you now."
- Jerry Manuel
by dave the rave on Jul 6, 2009 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions
That's too much.
Havens and Niese for Dunn is a ridiculous price.
Maybe we can go for Nick Johnson?
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
ehh
Honestly, I don’t see where Nick Johnson improves the team that much. Maybe on defense? I mean he only have 5 HR and has shown no pop since he’s come back after missing 2007. If he has shown such little power in Washington, Citi Field won’t help his cause.
I dont think he is the answer either.
"I told him the next time he does that, I’m going to get my blade out and cut him, right on the field. Hey, I’m a gangsta now. You go gangsta on me, I’m gonna have to get you now."
- Jerry Manuel
by dave the rave on Jul 6, 2009 8:53 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm more just saying
in terms of pure attainability. His price isn’t going to be as high. There’s the injury factor, and that needs to be taken into consideration. But in terms of pure production, he’s been worth 11 WAR over his last 1650 or so ABs (which signifies a good size of data). That’s over 4 WAR per season, which is All-Star level production. Sure, he’s not terrific, but he’s at least a good pick up as a low risk complementary piece.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
But what happens to him in August?
He can’t play the OF and he will get very minimal time when Delgado gets back. I wouldn’t want to give up Bobby P. for that. If that ends up being what happens, that will be ridiculous.
We could have had DeRosa who at least can play mulitple positions for him.
Everyone is entitled to be stupid, but Jerry abuses the privilege.
Yeah, I wouldn't do it.
But I wouldn’t trade for Johnson either. The market is really bare. “That guy” is just not there for us.
Everyone is entitled to be stupid, but Jerry abuses the privilege.
It might not be ridiculous.
(I’m thinking in terms of a healthy Johnson, so take it in grain.)
Nothing’s wrong in having a backup plan, possible starter next year, or a good backup.
Well, we better do something. Mount Philadelphia is about to erupt.
They just dropped a 10 spot on Johnny Cueto in the 1st inning. Nice to see that it is not just our asses that they kick.
Everyone is entitled to be stupid, but Jerry abuses the privilege.
At least the Cubbies are helping us.
4-0 over ATL. Sole custody of 3rd place is ours!!!!!
Everyone is entitled to be stupid, but Jerry abuses the privilege.
Make that 22
22 freaking runs. We have scored exactly that number of runs over our past 7 games.
We needs some lumber, I’m jealous.
Everyone is entitled to be stupid, but Jerry abuses the privilege.
Mets First Baseman Adam Dunn
If you stick Adam Dunn at first base, you have to assume that he’s a -19.5 defender conservatively. (His UZR/150 numbers are -23 and -37 in recent seasons, albeit in small sample sizes.) Figure in the -12.5 positional adjustment over a full season and you’re looking at an aggregate -32 defensively , assuming he’s no worse than that estimate (which there’s a good chance that he will be). That’s saving four runs over a full season. (By the way, that estimate is almost twice the positional adjustment of -17.5 for DHs.)
On the plus side, he’s likely to be more valuable with his bat with the Mets — last year’s numbers are weighed down by the launching pads that are Great American Ballpark and Chase Field — when you adjust for Citi Field, because his prodigious power can’t be contained by any ballpark. ZiPS forecasts Dunn to be worth 17.4 wRAA going forward, you can adjust that to 18.4 for a move to Citi Field (using the figure 0.945 from the eighth toughest ballpark last season).
In sum, 18.4 (offense) – 16 (def. + pos) + 11.25 (rep.) = 13.45 RAR, or 1.345 WAR this season, or ~2.7 WAR over a full season. That’s not a significant enough improvement to trade two top ten prospects.
The Mets could make up some of that difference by improving their infield defense with Wilson Valdez or Mark Kiger (whenever he gets off the damn DL), calling up Josh Thole to replace Omir Santos and by kicking the tires on other team’s minor leaguers.
by All Shook Down on Jul 6, 2009 7:49 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs
Rec'd
A much more cogent version of the exact argument I was trying to make.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Jul 6, 2009 8:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Could have been a FanPost
Good stuff. Dunn needs to be a DH when his current contract is up.
by James Kannengieser on Jul 6, 2009 9:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks guys
Didn’t realize there was a Citi Field park factor of 0.879. That’d put Dunn’s projected offensive value at ~19.8, giving him ~15.25 RAR, and 1.5 WAR, but still not huge enough of a difference to warrant trading ::cue Chris Berman:: Jon “Don’t Call Me Jack or Eric (MTV’s The Grind)” Niese or “President” Ike Davis*.
*Considered using “Dr. Issac Yankem” Davis “D.D.S.” because I can’t help making old wrestling references.
by All Shook Down on Jul 6, 2009 11:45 PM EDT up reply actions
I Like Ike
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
before
i would have gave up Niese for Dunn but now Niese has starting to grow on me he could be a #3 behind Johan and Pelf
the more i see or hear about Niese the more i think he might be something.if the nats said they wanted parnell for Dunn then i might do it
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