Mets Prospect Chat With John Sickels Of Minor League Ball

He’d be top 100 for sure. top 50….I don’t know. I’m going to do a new prospect list for Rotowire by the end of the month, so I’ll have a decision for that soon. He’s certainly taken a big step forward this year.

I like Carson’s youth and ability to generate grounders and suppress home runs, but his strikeout rate isn’t all that great. I’d rate him a Grade C/C+ right now. Shaw is older and more advanced, but his components at St. Lucie aren’t that great and he is more of a fly ball pitcher than Carson. He throws harder, but his track record in college wasn’t that great either….i’d give him a Grade C right now. Both have major league potential but neither are elite prospects at this point.

My hotel internet connection is very spotty,so bear with me guys.

Well he could be a superstar. He could also be just average, or he could flame out in Triple-A. His absolute ceiling would be as a .300, 30 homer guy. But it remains to be seen if his power will fully develop, and where he will fit defensively.

Well I liked Davis as both hitter and pitcher, but I think his ceiling his higher as a hitter. As a pitcher he looks like a short relief type. As a hitter he projects as a regular first baseman, which has more value. Give the guy a chance to hit….he’s doing a lot better this year and controls the zone very well.

I don’t know how it ranks. I don’t try to compare farm systems during the season, there are too many moving parts. I wait until after the season is over and all the data is in before making system-to-system comparisons. off the top of my head I would rate it as average….they have some guys with great ceilings but could use more depth.

Carson C/C+
Familia C+/B-
Nieu: C
Tejada: C/C+

All have major league potential. none are sure things.

Moderately concerned. If they are still sharp next year then I would be more worried.

I think they are pretty thin at the upper levels and I don’t see anyone guaranteed to make an impact this year. Niese needs more chances. For 2010 you could see Davis or Mejia but even they might be better suited for 2011.

Well the guys I find interesting in the 2009 draft class hasn’t signed yet…..of the guys on the roster right now, it will be interesting to see if OF Luis Rivera can maintain his hot start. He has tools but was terrible before this year….can he keep this up?

Tejada: pick your own good glove/bad bat utility infielder, there are a bunch of them
Holt: If he stays healthy he could be like Pelfrey. For some reason I think he’ll get hurt though.
Davis: Lyle Overbay with an excellent glove

they all look like C/C+ guys to me right now. I don’t see a lot to distinguish them either.

I can’t get through to half the websites on the internet right now so I can’t look up the numbers directly. the last i heard about his glove a month ago was ’making good progress."

hmm….i’d say mejia. pretty close….i’d have mejia as a B+/B right now and Holt as a B.

Well that’s a very good question. Not trying to dodge it, but it really IS a case-by-case thing…what positions are involved? Why is he being moved? Is he being moved from an easier position to a more difficult one, or vice versa? Does he just need more experience? Physical tools? etc. etc. There is no hard and fast rule. Generally speaking, all other things being equal, the more athletic player has the edge over the less athletic player, but there are exceptions. I don’t have a hard and fast rule about it.

Well he’s on the mound at least, though I don’t have any recent reports about what his velocity/stuff is like post-injury. Personally I tend to be somewhat suspicious of the super-tall pitchers…guys like Moviel or Brackman with the Yankees. I think it is hard for them to keep their mechanics and command in gear…lots of moving parts…and I think they tend to get overrated, just as smaller pitchers are sometimes underrated.

I don’t know what they want, but he looks like a reliever to me. Probably more 2011 though.

I could see Hill at this peak, perhaps with a few more homers and a bit less batting average. i agree with you, move him to second base.

He just needs time. remember, he’s been rushed considering his age. I don’t know if he’s ever going to be a huge star that lives up to the hype, but he should be a solid player for a long time to come. He’s been awfully young for his leagues, and that combined with his injury problems have made it a bit hard to get a read on exactly how good he might be. Even scouts who have seen him a lot have mixed opinions about how much power he will show at his peak. in other words, i’m confident he will be a succesful player, but the exact SHAPE that success will take, I don’t know.

He sucks. He can’t hit and I don’t think he’ll start. He has a good arm but is still raw behind the plate. Maybe he’ll make it as a backup, but I don’t buy him as a regular at all.

I heard some message board buzz that he’s still thinking about declining the Mets offer and attending college. Have you heard anything on that front?

I don’t know anything more than you do right now, and perhaps less. :)

my opinion hasnt’ changed….he can be a good 3/4 starter if given enough adjustment time and if he stays healthy.

Nope. all I have are scouting reports right now. …great tools, raw, too young to know what will happen yet.

I’m happy to see international signees get more attention over the last few years, but expectations for these guys are even harder to live up to than for the North American kids…they are so young,and most of them are SO raw….the hype gets awfully thick.

i like the ground balls and the decent strikeout rate, and he’s made the jump from rookie ball without getting killed. i’d rate him as a Grade C right now, but with the potential to get well beyond that. Let’s see what the final numbers and scouting reports look like…he could be a big sleeper for 2010

like i said earlier, I can’t access the numbers right now and the reports i have are vaguely positive about his glove. havent’ seen him myself this year. maybe he’ll go to the arizona fall league?

Well let’s see….bowman is the best athlete, but he strikes out way too much and probably always will. Duda just doesn’t have enough pop for a first baseman. Lutz hasn’t shown huge power this year either, but he’s still working off some injury rust. Right now, if i were the Mets, i think i’d leave things just as they are right now. I would rank Lutz and Bowman ahead of Duda since they have more defensive value.

I haven’t heard anything either.

Yes, the low batting average is a concern, but power/patience were his calling cards anyway. Right now I’m more concerned abou this durability than anything….he seems to get hurt a lot and that could cut into his offensive development.

Did the organization just get a little over-zealous here? The numbers scream “over-matched”. How much should we read into this?

I think his timetable has been pushed back. I’d say 2011.

probably projects as a LOOGY type. Good numbers but needs to get exposure at higher levels.

Stephen Strasburg. Duh.

He is what he is. He can be a competent middle reliever who gets ground balls.

Well there are different kinds and severities of labrum tears. I haven’t read the reports on Gee so I don’t know how extensive his was or what exactly they did during surgery. so I can’t really answer this.

I kind of like Beaulac actually, though he doesn’t have the ceiling of his teammates at Savannah. I could see him as a ROOGY, yes.

No, no, probably not.

I don’t think they should have any regrets about it. And I’m a Twins fan.

Mulvey could still be a good pitcher but I have little hope for Humber or Guerra.

puello

lol….well I don’t have my expenses paid for by an outside organization, so when I travel it all comes out of my own pocket. . .hotels, food, gasoline. This is actually a very nice hotel and cost-effective…the internet is just spotty. I’ve had worse connections at marriots though.

He’ll sign. about 2 minutes before the deadline, but he’ll sign. he’d be a fool to go back to college and risk blowing his arm out, and I don’t see him taking the indy ball route.

worth tracking, definitely. he could have gone within the first 10 rounds if his signability had been more clear That’s a nice pickup for them in the 19th round.

Of course. But they are DIFFERENT than hitting prospects and can’t be directly compared, which is why I split them up on my 50/50 lists.

Bostick is a guy that i’ve been watcihng for what seems like 10 years now. i’ve seen him throw 93 MPH and I’ve seen him throw 86…..i don’t have a current velocity report on him for 2009, but his track record is that of a pitcher with potential who could sneak up on us just as soon as eveyrone gives up. He reminds me of Dennis Reyes, who was a failed starting pitcher prospect with injury and weight problems, but who ended up being a pretty useful pitcher once everyone gave up on him.

No one. I don’t regard anyone in the mets system as untouchable. except maybe fmart.

well supposedly it was looking pretty decent in the FSL…but holt has been knocked around a bit in Double-A…small sample and I don’t have a current scouting report. he does sound an awful lot like Pelfrey…..great arm, secondary stuff needs help.

well his command is better this year and that is usually a result of better mechanics.

could see him as an 11th man if it comes together.

Great stuff, thanks much! Enjoy Iowa…

Thanks so much! It was a real treat. I hope Eric didn’t have to harass you too bad, he can be pretty tenacious ;). Seriously though, thanks again and I’m sure I speak for us all when I say we look forward to doing it again, because The Baseball Gods know, we Mets fans don’t have much in the Majors to cheer about.