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Devil's Advocate v3

Now that Ollie's back, let's try this again.  As always you can check out the original post here and the updated version here to see where the matchups stood back in May.  And now.....let's play Devil's Advocate! (mental note: create 70's style game show called devil's advocate)

                                                                              *statistics as of Thursday, July 9      

 

                                                                                          Images_medium

  IP ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9 AVG
Oliver Perez 26.2 8.78 7.43 9.45 1.01 .299
Derek Lowe 106.2 4.56 4.73 3.04 .42 .280

                                                                                            Late Addition:

R. Wolf     108.1 3.49 6.81 2.58 1.25 .235

  • Still not quite a fair fight but you can see Lowe's #'s starting to come down.  Both his K and BB rates are currently approaching career worst marks.  Couple that with one of the highest opponent averages in his career and you can see why the last month and a half have been a struggle for him.  However, as usual his ability to keep the ball in the park is his saving grace.  Randy Wolf looks like the steal of the offseason so far at 1yr/$5mil however, I stress so far (see: injuries, typically drastic pre/post ASG splits, .255 career BAA, career high strand rate)   As for O-dog, what can I really say here?  Maybe things will look better next month...

 

                                                                                         New_york_mets_v_los_angeles_dodgers_tkjqkabv-q9l_medium

  AVG OBP HR BB K wOBA
Luis Castillo 0.276 0.364 1 53 45 .322
Orlando Hudson 0.285 0.352 5 36 62 .341

  • Suddenly this race is becoming a good one.  Everyone's May MVP Orlando Hudson has (surprisingly) fallen back to earth with a .222 June and only 2 hits so far in July.  I never disagreed with the idea that Hudson was a great value but he became very VERY overrated around the start of the season.  And at the same time, Luis Castillo has been quite solid which is more than many expected.  Unfortunately, at this point Castillo's 'set the table'/infield singles type game isn't quite what this power-starved offense needs but with a normal, healthy lineup he'd be getting driven in a lot more and would garner a lot more credit.

 

                                                                                          Trevor_hoffman_medium

  IP ERA WHIP HR/9 BB/9 Saves/Opp
Francisco Rodriguez 40.2 1.77 1.23 0.66 5.09 22/25
Kerry Wood 28.1 5.08 1.45 1.59 5.08 10/14
Brian Fuentes 29.1 3.38 1.23 0.61 2.76 24/27

                                                                                               Late Addition:

T. Hoffman 24   1.85 1.03 0.00 2.59 19/20

  • So I hate to admit it but yes, K-Rod is human.  He finally earned a couple of legitimate blown saves and he's definitely walking way too many guys.  But hes still definitely been the best option.  Wood's numbers have actually improved a bit but he's struggled with walks too and for someone whose given up 5 bombs this season thats not a formula for success.  Fuentes has been very solid if unspectacular.  But the surprise here has been Trevor Hoffman who at 1yr/$6mil is the apparent steal of the closer class.  He has blown only 1 save, given up no hrs and has nearly matched K-Rod's miniscule ERA.  On the surface this may suggest a throwback to Hoffman's hayday.  However, with his K's down, walks up and a BABIP under .270, I think we're going to see a regression here.  For someone who gave up 8 bombs last year I have a feeling hitters are going to begin elevating the ball against him and soon.

This FanPost was contributed by a member of the community and was not subject to any vetting or approval process. It does not necessarily reflect the opinions, reasoning skills, or attention to grammar and usage rules held by the editors of this site.

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I'd like to see K rates for the closers, too

Fuentes looks pretty good because of the low BB rate compared to Frankie or Wood

by JoshNY on Jul 9, 2009 12:34 PM EDT reply actions  

How about Gary Sheffield versus Adam Dunn and Bobby Abreu??

OMAH WINS AGAIN

King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president

by Sam Page on Jul 9, 2009 12:58 PM EDT reply actions  

+1019190101010

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jul 9, 2009 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ha

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Jul 9, 2009 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not really fair to include this one

Sheff was a late addition for peanuts and really wasnt a part of a pair of choices to be made. If you are going to this for the OF, do Dunn or Abreu vs. all the LF production, since the team planned a platoon of Murphy and Tatis. It still will be awful. And your comment is more funny, so theres’ that.

by TBlz on Jul 9, 2009 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm sort of glad we didn't end up with Lowe

but I just really wish we had taken the money we saved not signing him and had put it into anyone other than Oliver Perez.

by cjmulrain on Jul 9, 2009 2:08 PM EDT reply actions  

Literally anyone.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jul 9, 2009 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

I want a honkballer...

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jul 9, 2009 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

+1

Very much how I feel.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Jul 9, 2009 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm not sure why people think Perez had so much upside

I mean, he hadn’t a good year since 2004. There is a point when you have to look at performance over upside.

Derosa.

by vivaelpujols on Jul 10, 2009 2:25 AM EDT up reply actions  

Because

The Mets had a pretty good defensive outfield in 2007. Plus lefties who can miss bats will always have those hangers-on who believe they can turn their careers around. Joe Sheehan actually did an interesting column on BP about a month ago about potential 300 game winners we might not consider, and as it was all part of the Randy Johnson party Ollie got his token mention. But he did make a good case that a 27 year old strikeout pitcher with command problems isn’t the last guy you’d ever expect to figure it out. Ollie’s just so mercurial though, and the trends haven’t indicated any kind of progress in a long time.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Jul 10, 2009 2:44 AM EDT up reply actions  

It's the Koufax Effect

The difference between an awful lefty with good stuff and a Hall of Fame lefty with good stuff is the ability to throw strikes. It seems like such a small, attainable thing. We’re eternally hopeful despite the fact that only a few have done it.

by TheBigStapler on Jul 10, 2009 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

Don't even get me started.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jul 10, 2009 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah I was dead against Derek Lowe for 4!!! years wow thats really going to start to look bad over the next three, however I off set that by claiming to prefer Wood over Francisco which wouldn’t have worked out at all.
I remember this past off season wanting Javier Vazquez, Oliver Perez, Kerry Wood and Adam Dunn.
In hindsight the only one I’ll admit I was stupid on was Kerry Wood although my reasoning behind it was that it wouldn’t cost a draft pick.
I’m actually okay still with the Perez signing, I’d have preferred it to be $36 mil over 4 years but its not a terrible contract…its bad but not anything like Alfonso Soriano, Barry Zito, Vernon Wells bad.
In summary I’m glad the Mets signed KRod.

by Ohpityme on Jul 11, 2009 7:35 AM EDT reply actions  

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