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Science vs. Faith

(bumped from the FanPosts. --eric)

My evolution as a baseball fan reminds me of a memorable exchange from "Lost," specifically from the Season One finale entitled "Exodus Part II."

John Locke: That's why you and I don't see eye-to-eye sometimes, Jack -- because you're a man of science.

Jack Shephard: Yeah, and what does that make you?

John Locke: Me, well, I'm a man of faith.

Star-divide

Those who follow the popular television series know that Jack and Locke once had diametrically opposed viewpoints. Jack, a renowned spinal surgeon off the island, refused to accept anything that couldn't be explained rationally. Meanwhile Locke, who was wheelchair-bound off the island, could miraculously walk again. He was convinced that some greater power was at work.

As Mets fans, we were raised on this notion of faith, perhaps more than any other fanbase. We're the ones that, while thrilled to even have a National League team again, persevered through a 394-737 record before shocking the world in 1969. We're the ones who saw a black cat cross the path of Ron Santo on the way to becoming a "miracle." We're the ones who were told "You Gotta Believe!" by Tug. We're the ones who didn't stop believing with two outs against Calvin Schiraldi in Game 6, even when the scoreboard said otherwise. We're the ones who sat in the rain, witnessed "The Grand Slam Single" and believed that four straight wins against the hated Braves were possible, at least until the final, painful ball-four. We've been there, whether through our own experiences -- or a parent's -- or a grandparent's. We believed. And would you look at that, we have two of the most improbable World Series championships to show for it.

I'm generalizing, of course, but there's something unique about the team's history that asks one to suspend logic when evaluating the team. I mean, remember the "Always Believe" slogan in 2002? Was Bobby V supposed to be an evangelist or a manager? Hard to tell sometimes. Either way, I always bought in. "Generation K"? Bring it on. "Catch the Energy"? Sold. I believed in Alex Ochoa's five-tools. Ryan Thompson's, too. Carlos Baerga was my favorite player for a while, even though he had a truly awful .266/.303/.364 line in 1998. I honestly didn't care what his line was or what kind of range factor he had. It looked like he genuinely cared about what he was doing. So I believed in him.

In turn, I guess that's what makes this evolution so improbable, at least to me. You see, this lifelong believer is now a fledgling stat-geek. Just one year ago I couldn't have told you what a high FIP meant for someone that was pitching over their head (cough: Oliver Perez: cough) or why WAR is an effective way to measure players (David Wright was robbed of at least one MVP award). I never wrote about any of that stuff in nearly four seasons at MetsBlog. Nope. It was just the basics -- ERA, batting average, homers, RBI. But ever since Adam Wainwright's called third-strike to Carlos Beltran, I have been searching for answers; ones that couldn't be provided by the traditional means of a beat writer or a sports-talk show host. It turns out that I can't get by on faith alone.

As I've told friends and fellow bloggers, Sabermetrics have been like Lasik Eye Surgery to my baseball experience. Revolutionary sites like Fangraphs, Baseball Think Factory, The Hardball Times, Baseball HQ and Baseball Prospectus, among others, have given me the power to evaluate talent at a click. I'm routinely humbled by these new technologies, but recognize their importance and relevancy for the future of our game and enhanced understanding of it. I look forward to observing and discussing our Mets under this microscope. As long as I can throw a little bit of faith in, too.

This FanPost was contributed by a member of the community and was not subject to any vetting or approval process. It does not necessarily reflect the opinions, reasoning skills, or attention to grammar and usage rules held by the editors of this site.

Comment 65 comments  |  8 recs  | 

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Great writing.

Welcome aboard. I think you’ll find a little bit of both here.

"I have discovered in twenty years of moving around a ball park, that the knowledge of the game is usually inverse in proportion to the price of the seats." - Bill Veeck

by Prince on Jul 9, 2009 1:36 PM EDT reply actions  

Nice job

Most of us here have gone through this transformation at some point. For me, it probably began with Rob Neyer and this column. Nothing like a few digs at Derek Jeter to endear yourself to a Mets’ fan.

by Eric Simon on Jul 9, 2009 1:40 PM EDT reply actions  

Rob Neyer was definitely a big part of my transformation

as was the Bill James Historical Abstract I bought last April.

by cjmulrain on Jul 9, 2009 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

wow.

i’m in the midst of my transformation. never read this neyer article before. fantastic. on another note, great writing dj. i really enjoyed this as i can relate.

by pricedoutoftheciti on Jul 9, 2009 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ditto on Neyer being my introductory professor as well

Which makes it pretty cool that AA is now listed in his blogroll.

I have been searching for answers; ones that couldn’t be provided by the traditional means of a beat writer or a sports-talk show host. It turns out that I can’t get by on faith alone.

Great piece D.J.

by James Kannengieser on Jul 9, 2009 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

See, I caught on to Rob Neyer really late

Wasn’t Neyer behind the pay-wall at ESPN.com for a while? Regardless, I’ve always had an aversion to ESPN.

Moneyball and later Baseball Prospectus were my enlightenment.

by All Shook Down on Jul 12, 2009 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions  

Anything with a good Lost reference

gets a Rec from me, but this was a good piece regardless. I’m with you DJ – I still think there’s some room for blind faith even if the numbers don’t bear it out, but the stats really do enhance the understanding of the game.

by cjmulrain on Jul 9, 2009 1:44 PM EDT reply actions  

Welcome

It’s just a different approach to understanding a beautiful game, and I think it does it extremely well.

Congrats.

by Pat Andriola on Jul 9, 2009 2:10 PM EDT reply actions  

I'm a science over faith guy myself

have been for at least the last five years, but I have to say

Locke>Shepard

Jack is just so freakin annoying.

Seriously though, I think these advanced stats make the game far more enjoyable. You have a better understanding of what happens on the field and why. Of course there is some faith involved.

"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."

by Evan_S on Jul 9, 2009 2:16 PM EDT reply actions  

really?

i mean yeah jack has his annoying bits but i despise locke. i kept wishing he would stay friggin dead! i did like the twist at the end of the lat season to his character tho. that show his great if you can get by the slow stretches, particularly in the 1st and 2nd season where the last 10 minutes of each episode would just be some acoustic guitar montage of all the castaways.

Lets hope that when gut check time comes again the Mets will pass it with flying colors.

by kendynamo on Jul 9, 2009 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

Thank you!

I’m no big Jack fan, but Locke’s a tool. “WAHHHH! THE ISLAND LIED TO ME!! THE BUTTON IN THE HATCH IS REAL! THE BUTTON ISN’T REAL!” Stop being such a whiney gullible little baby. You’d think you’d have learned to be less trusting when your dad stole your freakin’ kidney and that cop kid tried to get you to sell out your pot farmin’ buddies.

I despised Locke the moment they revealed his name was “John Locke”. Not like “Jack Shepard” is a much better character name though. The whole problem with the show is its just too ambitious. There’s no way they could make every little detail seem well written, so they just skip some of the big ones, and then make fun of them two seasons later after people start to get annoyed to show they’re “hip to what the internet geeks are saying on the forums”.

BTW, I’m not finished watching even through where its at now, I go in and out of it, but sometimes I’ll skip around and watch random later episodes, just for the sheer hilarity of how little of it makes sense.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Jul 9, 2009 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not a fan Lockian theory?

Jack is far worse. We have to go home, we have to find a way off, blah blah blah. Locke is a far more interesting character without a doubt. Maybe we’re watching two different shows, but how is Jack not a worse character? He was all “we have to get off the Island” only to change his mind and follow Locke screaming “we have to get back!!!” cause he now believed what Locke was saying, to an extent.

I don’t really want to get into a back and forth here, but I think we can all agree Kate is the “best” character

"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."

by Evan_S on Jul 9, 2009 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

Its not that

I just think its a silly character idea, first of all, to name him John Locke, and then to have him be so completely impotent when it comes to anything intellectual, and so ridiculously badass when it comes to anything physically enduring. Jack doesn’t even have the intellectual. He’s just there to be a force of nature and to heal wounded people, so while his personality also grates on me, I understand him as a device and his “device” seems less in contradiction to his character. With Locke, tell him he needs to hit a polar bear between the eyes with a throwing knife, done. But form a personal connection with him or try to get him thinking abstractly, and his entire world gets shaken.

Kate’s pretty awesome, and so is Sayid. They’re the two “super heros” I kind of like. Hurley’s also hilarious, but he has no powers, he’s just fat and funny. With Sawyer, I can’t tell if they hired a good actor and told him his motivation is that he’s a bad actor, or if they just hired a bad actor and gave him his lines.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Jul 9, 2009 6:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

Desmond is the best character.

He’s much less annoying than Jack, Kate, and Locke. Also, his episodes are the show’s best.

by BobbyV_Incognito on Jul 9, 2009 9:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

I meant best as in hottest

but yeah, i agree, Desmond is awesome

"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."

by Evan_S on Jul 9, 2009 10:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

Fair enough

I’m only partway through his heavy stuff so I’m reserving judgment. I still hate that he borrows his name from a famous philosopher. Especially a portly, awkward fellow, which Hume was. It just feels half-assed to me. It’d be like writing a book about a genius and naming him Einstein.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Jul 9, 2009 11:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, the names are pretty pretentious.

I think Jeremy Bentham was the most egregious. But as a character, he’s the best of the bunch. I’ve found myself liking him way more than Jack (we get it, you have daddy issues), Locke (somehow always getting played by Ben), or Kate (cute but boring). Also, like I said, his episodes are always among the show’s best. I will be honest – the ending to The Constant always gets me a little.

by BobbyV_Incognito on Jul 10, 2009 1:34 AM EDT up reply actions  

I buy it

I have yet to find a flaw with Des yet, he seems legitimately both entertaining and insightful.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Jul 10, 2009 1:55 AM EDT up reply actions  

i like sun

he has to put up with so much crap but he never bitches and still gets shit done. also my favorite part of the whole series is when charlie goes crazy and is about to drown claire;s baby and everyones like, charlie what eff are you doing? and hes just like, no no its cool, im just going to drown this baby, everyone just chill out.

Lets hope that when gut check time comes again the Mets will pass it with flying colors.

by kendynamo on Jul 10, 2009 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions  

Charlie

Easily one of the most irritating characters ever on TV, but his death was pretty cool. Basically salvaged his time the show.

by James Kannengieser on Jul 10, 2009 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

But he played Meriadoc Brandybuck!

"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."

by Evan_S on Jul 10, 2009 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

fun fact

in the movie Frequency (in which the ’69 Mets play a good part – good movie) has a bad guy named Jack Sheppard, who at one point in the movie kills the wife/mother of the main characters, who is played by none other than Elizabeth Mitchell (Juliet from Lost).

by cjmulrain on Jul 9, 2009 7:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

I have a very love-hate thing with Lost

I swear, John’s gonna come back in the last season as Rene Descartes and go “I think on the island therefore I am on the island” or something. I mean, for real, come up with some original character names. Desmond Dave Hume? John Locke? No more Enlightenment era European philosophers please.

Anyway, very nice post and welcome to the fold. I was one of those sitting through the rain to watch Ventura’s slam. We all have our ways of making the world make sense. Some ways just make more sense than others ;). We’re all fans here though, so no matter how much our rational minds try to take over, its still always the faith that’s going to come first (except on days when Omir Santos is in the lineup).

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Jul 9, 2009 2:31 PM EDT reply actions  

nice piece

stats can tell you just about everything about what has already happened, but every new pitch and every new plate appearance can be the start of a new statistical trend, or a downright outlier (omirs homerun off papelbon?). that’s where blind faith comes in. i have no problem with talking about line drive rates after the game, but if an argenis reyes bloop single wins a playoff game for the mets, hes a hero all the same.

baseball is a crazy game because success is not perfectly correlated to good process. scorching line drives can equal outs, and perfect pitches can be blooped and bled for hits and runs. perfect jump shots go in.

by njk237 on Jul 9, 2009 2:37 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

Yeah, nice piece.

I am a man of science, even have a degree in it. In my rational mind I say the Mets are done, D-O-N-E, over, ended, Fin. But the John Locke (he is so damn cool) part is telling me that this is going to be the race of the century, the one that makes us forget 06,07 &08.

Damn I hope Locke is right and the cavalry arrives in time for us to win this thing.

You speak of Metsblog. I have never been a big fan but I do read it from time to time to catch a starting time, SP, line up etc. But it seems to me that Cerrone has simply lost his mind. It is no longer about the Mets its about HIS interpretation of the Mets. Its a very strange thing to stop people commentating, almost like he is afraid someone will point out his shortcomings. I think he has lost the plot, thanks for keeping AA real!!!!

by scott from peekskill on Jul 9, 2009 3:34 PM EDT reply actions  

haha, WHAT?

BIll Simmons always shares criticism of himself…

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jul 9, 2009 9:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

In fact he constantly makes fun of himself as well

c’mon half of his mail-bags are him conceding points where he was an idiot, specifically to Lakers fans.

by meigs1414 on Jul 9, 2009 9:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

not with baseball, though.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jul 9, 2009 9:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

that's true

but then again, all he talks about is the AL (latest podcast not withstanding) and basically, as long as he keeps ripping on the yankees, it’s all good.

by meigs1414 on Jul 9, 2009 9:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

I love Simmons, and he is self-deprecating at times

but he refuses to let ESPN allow comments after his article. I understand why (during the trial run of comments Deadspin had a bunch of readers leave nasty stuff about Simmons and his wife), but still…

by cjmulrain on Jul 9, 2009 10:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah I'm not a huge fan of the lack of comments either

But I figured that was because he does mailbags on a quasi-consistent so there was enough reader feedback. Really, people left nasty comments about Simmons and his wife? That’s terrible. Who the hell would have thought that people would be immature on the internets?

by meigs1414 on Jul 9, 2009 11:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

OK, second attempt

My first comment got bumped because of some weirdness with the mobile posting, but all I wanted to say was that I seem to recall the ‘Lost’ analogy also coming up in a Ted Berg piece a while back. Guess someone who’s never seen the show, like myself, just has no idea.

But, hey, good post. Welcome.

"He's definitely mixing it into his repertoire. That's French for 'repertoire' " - Keith Hernandez

by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Jul 9, 2009 3:43 PM EDT via mobile reply actions  

I started getting into advanced stats

through Sports Illustrated ironically. They used to mention OPS and WHIP and I wanted to know what they were. Before that I used the traditional statistics to evaluate a player, I guess like everyone else. Although in the past I would always say that OBP would be better because it tells you how many times the player is on base. But when I began reading Fire Joe Morgan I really got into sabermetrics.

by aparkermarshall on Jul 9, 2009 4:01 PM EDT reply actions  

I think Fire Joe Morgan

is what got me into obscure statistics. For all their nerdiness, they were also the kings of common sense.

by TheBigStapler on Jul 9, 2009 4:05 PM EDT reply actions  

That did it for me, too

Came for the humor, left with a different mindset.

by Mount17 on Jul 9, 2009 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

Totally

I found that site because they had the audio of Michael Kay’s flip out about Cheng Ming Wang’s no hitter. then I read a JoeChat and it changed my life.

by mets81 on Jul 9, 2009 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

I just Googled the Kay thing

Don’t think I’ve heard it before. Wow.

by Mount17 on Jul 9, 2009 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

Tonights lineup pukeage: Castillo, Evans, Wright, Sheffield, Tatis, Church, Mr Grission, Cora, Livan

Jerry despite what he said on the radio yesterday clearly has NO faith in Murphy against lefties. He is a hypocrit with his playing the hot bat after Murph got 2 dbls last night. I’d rather see lefty Murph than wait for Tatis to get a hit.

by Rigsay on Jul 9, 2009 4:13 PM EDT reply actions  

At least it's not like he's pulling out a guy who got two XBH last night

"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."

by Evan_S on Jul 9, 2009 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

Or is a good defender.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jul 9, 2009 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well at least Cora is batting 8th

So we got that going for us. Which is nice.

And when did we get Eckstein?

by meigs1414 on Jul 9, 2009 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

Being a Fan is All Faith

Issue 1:
You enter every season cheering for YOUR team. This is your team not because computer models tell you that they will “win it all”, or because they have the best pitchers in the history of the league. For most of us (at this site at least) it is because we just fans of the team we like. It is all faith.

I love the Mets because of a number of reasons, but none of them are better than the reasons my older brother has for being a Yankee fan. The Mets are my team, and that’s how I like it.

My kid is going to be raised a Mets fan in Mets gear. The kid is gonna listen to the Mets on the radio on long car rides. But I know that living in Baltimore is gonna be tough. That kid could fall in love with Adam Jones or the orange and black, and that will be that. It is out of my hands.

Im just excited for the opportunity to be a dad with my kid at a game. Every once and a while Uncle Catsmeat will be there, too. We’ll try our best.

Issue 2:
Better stats have made being a fan more fun. I am serious.

That being said, I still disagree with Neyer about Jeter. At the time, Jeter was worth every penny for reasons stats cannot cover. (don’t groan, I think I can make a valid point.)

He was a media darling – a walking myth. People all over the world purchased Jeter jerseys and posters because he carried with him the perception of being the greatest ball player of all time (without actually being the greatest of his generation.) You can put a price on that.

Were he on a Yankees team that only won one series (like the Braves) he would be looked upon fondly at retirement (like Chipper Jones.) But since he won those rings, and made one or two great plays on national television, he became bigger than life.

For better or for worse, baseball players will always be judged for what they did as well as what we think they did. The science and faith people will argue points and theories until the end of time. Ultimately, it is good for baseball. We’ll all keep watching.

Grission and Husart - that is either the non-union Mexican equivelant of "Starsky and Hutch" or the key to winning the World Series.

by IanB in MD on Jul 9, 2009 4:38 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

Issue #2

is a very good point. Jeter provides the Yankees with endless amounts of Aura And Mystique™, which seems like bullshit to all of us but is actually very useful in terms of managing the media, marketing the teams, merchandising/licensing, etc. It’s certainly not a quantifiable skill and it’s impossible to make a reasonable argument that it makes him more valuable than Jose Reyes. But every time a writer from the Post pens a gushing article that promotes the Yankee organization b/c of Jete’s intangibles, the Yankees’ narrative becomes one of success and tradition. And every time a writer from the Post says that Reyes and his elaborate handshakes are why the Mets will always be losers, the Mets’ narrative becomes one of failure and wasted potential.

by Zwill on Jul 9, 2009 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

So you're saying

That Jeter’s good at supporting the post-hoc narrative that’s already brewing the sportswriters minds? I wish I was that smooth, so that everytime something nice happened to me I could make people believe it was all my fault to the point where everytime something not nice happened to me I could make people believe I had nothing to do with it (and I’m not making fun, I really do wish I was that smooth).

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Jul 9, 2009 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

You're joking

but isn’t that exactly what PR/marketing/spin is designed to do? Control the perception of the media who will in turn influence the masses. I’m not saying Jeter plots day and night to manipulate the public but clearly he and his advisers are quite good at controlling his public image, which provides some value to the club. So when he dives into the stands for a popup, he’s the gritty warrior who saved the game and when he strikes out in the ninth inning, his failure is largely ignored.

by Zwill on Jul 9, 2009 8:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

Absolutely

Its a very useful skill. I admire it, I’m disgusted by it, and I envy it, all genuinely and all at once.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Jul 9, 2009 9:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

I haven't done a statistical analysis on statistical analysis ...

Clearly there is some value to statistics, but if that’s all that is involved, then any geek is capable of being a major league manager … and I don’t believe that that’s true. I think that one has to have – and I wouldn’t use the word “faith” – feel for the game and a feel for your players and their mental make-up, i.e. desire, ability has handle stress, etc.

"Never throw a slider to The Glider."

- Ed Charles, No. 5

by The Glider on Jul 9, 2009 8:12 PM EDT reply actions  

Yes

And no one doubts that. The problem lies with managers like Jerry who have displayed a total aversion to learning about and utilizing the “geek” part of the game. For a guy making millions of $ to write a lineup, make pitching changes and talk to the media it’s flat-out ignorant.

by James Kannengieser on Jul 9, 2009 8:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm reading an excellent book right now

Called “The Drunkard’s Walk: How Randomness Effects Our Lives” by Leonard Mlodinow. Its about how the laws of probability clash with our innate intuitive processes. It actually uses some baseball examples. I think I should send a copy to Jerry.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Jul 9, 2009 9:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm really enjoying it

Highly recommend it so far, but I’m only about halfway through.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Jul 9, 2009 11:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

yeah, i heard it was great too.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jul 9, 2009 11:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

DJ Short ol' buddy

My all time favorite metsblOg writer….
I hope you’re not just toying with the nerds hearts around here with your professions of love for the latest analytical toys. Whenever I need to assess whether Oliver Perez is in over his head—i just use my eyes and failing that, I don’t look at FIP, my G.U.T. tells me. But it looks like you ingratiated yourself pretty good here. I’m glad you’re back, the blargosphere missed you.

I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself into trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya

by itsmetsforme on Jul 10, 2009 2:17 AM EDT reply actions  

Metsblog No-fail!

A presence of rationality and sanity (and intelligence) on Metsblog is truly a great benefit (since Ted Berg’s role there is so limited).

Nothing can get by him; especially in a small room: Mike Francessa

by GenJackRipper on Jul 10, 2009 3:29 PM EDT reply actions  

Was this a hit and run by D.J.?

Speak of your MetsBlog days! Do you trust the Mets? Does Mike Nichols really crawl around on all fours with cheese doodles up his nose? Do they call Regis Courtemanche ‘REEG’? Were OPS and UZR redacted from your posts by the state italics monger?

by All Shook Down on Jul 12, 2009 11:00 AM EDT reply actions  

Thanks!

Thanks for the kind words, all. Look forward to posting here in the weeks and months to come.

by D.J. Short on Jul 13, 2009 9:47 AM EDT reply actions  

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Lg_rocker_ap_small Matthew Callan

Billy_and_daddy_4th_of_july_small Bill Petti

THE NEWS GURUS

Mrmet_small Steve Schreiber

3_small Stephen Schmidt

159714144_040c6c1501_small Pack Bringley

124967042_crop_340x234_small Jeffrey Paternostro