Figgins And DeRosa And Sherman, Oh My!
The other day in the New York Post, Joel Sherman wrote a column entitled "Cost-Friendly Ways Mets Can Deepen Their Roster", which sounded like a reasonable enough premise to put aside my mild aversion to mainstream sports writing and see what Sherman was getting at. The gist is that the Mets figure to have limited payroll flexibility in 2010 but must find a way to field a contender without razing whatever minor league depth they have. It's a legitimate challenge, one that Omar Minaya and his staff should already be holding serious -- ideally shirtless -- brainstorming (!) sessions to find a tenable solution. I've got my shirt on and funny money to spend, so this becomes an academic exercise instead of one upon which the fate of many jobs doubtless rest.
The bottom line is this:
You must create better 25- and 40-man roster depth. Why? Well, the common theme to explain how the Mets faltered in September 2007 and 2008 was lack of character. Maybe. But it was more about lack of talent. It is the same reason that 2009 has gone awry. The skill level beyond the elite players has been horrendous.
I'm not sure if that "character" bit was tongue-in-cheek; I'm guessing not. The second part is right: the Mets fell short because they weren't good enough, and apart from having a few of the best players in baseball they haven't had much of a supporting cast. This year has been no better, as very few of the Mets' injury reinforcements have managed even replacement-level production.
"You have to be strong 11-to-30 on your roster or 11-to-40 on your roster," a rival NL executive said. "The Phillies are. The Mets aren't."
This is a fair criticism. At least it's pointing out that the Phillies are better than the Mets because they have better players and not because Shane Victorino's batting helmet has a hollowed-out earflap filled with magic pixie dust. My only quibble is that this quote seems to imply that the Mets are somehow strong 1-10 on their active roster, which is probably giving them a bit too much credit.
The Mets are not going to be able to afford to go too high on the Type-A list anyway for a Matt Holliday or John Lackey. They need to spread around what funds they have and again be thinking about deepening their roster. Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes and David Wright have lost value in 2009, so the Mets can't trade them now at a low point.
I actually think the Mets could be competitive for Matt Holliday if they were inclined to pursue him; I'm not sure they would, and with the free agent crop looking a bit thin this year I would imagine some team will overpay to pull the most attractive name off the list. I'd probably greenlight a serious courtship of Holliday, who is a great hitter (Coors Field or no) and a very good fielder and should be worth $15 million a year over the next 4-5 years.
More fair points about the Mets' big three, though. Reyes and Beltran have both been injured and Wright has seen his homeruns fall off a cliff; it doesn't matter to most people that Citi Field may have caused much of the dropoff. None of them are untouchable, nor is any likely to be traded anytime soon, bad season or not.
The Mets then should augment with good, versatile players. Both Mark DeRosa and Chone Figgins are free agents. Both are on the borderline between Type-A and B, and the Mets would like them to fall into Type-B, so the Mets can protect their first two rounds of picks.
[...]
My rudimentary guess is two years at $10 million for DeRosa and three years at $24 million for Figgins.
[...]
So, at full health, the Mets would have Figgins in left and DeRosa at first. But the beauty is that if an injury hit anywhere other than catcher (and maybe shortstop) and the Mets did not have a suitable replacement, Figgins and/or DeRosa could shift over.
I'll bite. DeRosa will be 35 next year; Figgins 32. Those salaries aren't outrageous: Figgins has been worth $12.5 million, $11 million and $17.3 million (so far) over the past three seasons according to WAR valuations. $8 million a season could be a bargain. Figgins plays a lot of positions, which is good; unfortunately, UZR thinks he's terrible at all of them except for third, where the Mets need no help.
| Pos | Inn | UZR | UZR/150 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2B | 794.1 | -4.4 | -8.2 |
| 3B | 4077.2 | 15 | 5.4 |
| SS | 150.2 | -0.8 | -7.7 |
| LF | 242.2 | -3.5 | -17.7 |
| CF | 1918 | -5.7 | -3.5 |
| RF | 186.2 | -3.3 | -23.2 |
| OF | 2347.1 | -12.6 | -6.4 |
Figgins has spent most of his career playing in the infield, primarily at third but he also has some experience at second and a few chances at short. Figgins is a valuable player at those positions because his offense compares very favorably with others infielders. Sherman wants to put Figgins in left field, where his bat will be sub-standard. Not Daniel Murphy or Fernando Tatis bad, but worse than the average left-fielder. If Wright or Luis Castillo misses significant time then Figgins's value goes up as a fill-in, but then you still have to find someone to play left field, and if he's as bad as whomever would have taken over the injured infielder instead of Figgins then you're back where you started.
Figgins would be an outstanding bench option, but he's really underutilized in that spot and someone is going to rightfully pay him to play full-time. Even in left, Figgins would be an upgrade over what the Mets have now, but at $8 million I think the Mets need to look for a better hitter (or fielder) to play a corner outfield spot every day.
DeRosa is another player who is eminently useful, but he's also a better fit as an infielder than a corner outfielder or, as Sherman projects, a first-baseman. As a reminder, first base is traditionally the easiest position at which to find passable offense. This may be surprising considering some of the offensive sinkholes the Mets have played at first over the years (see: 2009), but it's generally true. As a fairly crude illustration of this, here are the 2009 National League OPS splits by position:
| Position | OPS |
|---|---|
| as C | 0.709 |
| as SS | 0.721 |
| as 2B | 0.744 |
| as 3B | 0.763 |
| as CF | 0.771 |
| as RF | 0.774 |
| as LF | 0.784 |
| as 1B | 0.842 |
And for good measure, Bill James's defensive spectrum looks like this (ease of finding offense decreases from left-to-right):
[ 1B - LF - RF - 3B - CF - 2B - SS - C ]
Centerfield and third base are swapped, but everything else is where it should be. By a vast sum, NL first basemen have paced the rest of the diamond in OPS, and you can be sure that more advanced metrics will echo these results. Given this, let's stop pretending that all positions are created equal and that it makes any sense to move a decent-hitting second-baseman to first base.
If DeRosa is a Type B and he only costs $10 million over two years, he's not a bad gamble to take. His bat is probably strong enough to carry in right field, and UZR likes him a lot better as a corner outfielder than as an infielder. It should be sufficient to say that DeRosa is a better option than Jeff Francoeur, and, despite the disparity in their ages, I'd much sooner have DeRosa for the next two years.
The Mets have a lot of holes and, it seems, not a lot of money with which to fill them. Looking for undervalued Type B free agents like Figgins and DeRosa is a good place to start, but it's important to keep in mind the context of their past performances and whether it makes sense to sign up for their versatility only to use them in the least effective ways possible.
You've heard Sherman's plan. What's yours?
0 recs |
92 comments
|
Comments
As an East Coast insomniac
I love that you post during my most boring hours.
by shwebsi on Aug 11, 2009 6:08 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I have no doubts that the Mets can jump back in and contend next season
Hopefully that depth is being built right now with Pagan and Murphy.
There are definite holes they need to fill here though. Murphy probably doesn’t belong in the outfield and the Mets probably should shop for a first basemen ie Nik Johnson (Him and Wright in the same lineup with .400 OBP would be sick!!!!). I think the mets should look to groom Murph at second or third (Wright meeds some days off).
Give Sheffeild some games at first.
This team needs depth but not just any guys but yeah, guys with character. I thought Julio Franco was an extremely useful bench player in his time here. They need that guy off the bench with that kind of experience for guys to lean on. They are really good for younger players.
I don’t know what to say about the starting pitching. Pelfrey looks lost and I don’t know it it’s him or the management. Hard to really peg.
by Chickendirt on Aug 11, 2009 7:27 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Why not one big name and then sign the "undervalued" guys
Specifically on the offensive front. I would like to see them sign Holliday, assuming we don’t have to go like 17mil per over 6 years or something. We also won’t lose our first round pick because I assume we finish in the bottom 15 this year and the pick is protected. Then get a guy like DeRosa if he can be signed at a bargain.
I don’t see why everyone is assuming the payroll is getting slashed. Assuming we don’t tender Francoeur or pick up Putz’ option, the salary obligations for next year will only be in the neighborhood of 105mil (or less).
I still think the starting pitching is the biggest issue for next year, and a legit number 2 starter being the biggest need.
by Balagast on Aug 11, 2009 8:54 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Unless there is a regime change
I don’t think they non-tender Francoeur.
by mets81 on Aug 11, 2009 9:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also
Considering that Minaya credited JOHN RICCO with proposing the Frenchy-For-Churchy swap, tells me that Frenchy will be around for awhile.
by MetsGod on Aug 11, 2009 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He didn't credit Ricco with Francoeur for Church,
He credited him with suggesting looking into Francoeur. Looking at a player with his talent wasn’t a bad idea, giving up Ryan Church for him was.
"If I ever decide to do a book, I've already got the title...The bases were loaded and so was I."
-Jim Fregosi
by Schmidtxc on Aug 11, 2009 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
plus, I believe the term is "branstorming"
Ricco: “we need a shot in the ass, I wonder what it would take to get Jeff Francoeur from the Braves now that they hate him.”
Omar: “well, we already got rid of Castro, lets unload Church because Jerry Manuel’s gut doesnt like that Church eats all of Jerry’s favorite food at the pre-game buffett.”
Later:
Omar: “Frank Wren, babe, Ryan Church for Jeff Francoeur – lets get it do..”
Frank Wren: “Deal!”
Omar: “..ne”
Frank Wren: “I’m getting screwed Omar, because Francoeur’s had 100 RBI seasons, but I won’t even make you give me Brian Stokes.”
Omar: “Who is that? Batboy? Or do you mean Socks! the guy that rakes the bullpen mound? We let him sit out there sometimes.”
Frank Wren: “That’s him, maybe we will talk about a trade for him later, think about Matt Diaz – he’s your kind of player.”
by mets81 on Aug 11, 2009 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
As we discovered when Jerry had Feliciano pitch to him
Matt Diaz hammers lefties (.881 career OPS against LHP). He’s not terrible, he’s just limited.
Of course, it would be Omar’s kind of move to trade a prospect for Diaz when we’ve already got a player in the minors who can do that (Nick Evans career MLB OPS .919 ).
(To be fair, UZR has Diaz as a good left fielder, and Evans as a bad one.)
by JoshNY on Aug 11, 2009 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah but there are a lot of raises due up
Wright, Reyes, Santana. The Mets have done a nice job of forgoeing the temptation to heavily backload contracts, but its still going to be a tough year to balance the budget.
I do agree with your first point though, I think its wiser to sign a big name and then sign actual supporting players than to just go with the second tier names. Holliday is a legitimately high value player.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on Aug 11, 2009 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So...
Who should we get to play corner OF and 1B next year?
You don't cheer for the Mets. You drink for the Mets.
by Kevin H on Aug 11, 2009 9:20 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
resign Delgado at cheap incentive laden contract
And then get Holliday. Holliday $20 over 3, Delgado $5 mill, and then either Figgins/DeRosa
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
by firejerrynow on Aug 11, 2009 9:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agree
I like Seth Smith. These are the type guys you have to look for. Guys who aren’t playing everyday right now, but would be putting up nice numbers if they had the ABs. Extrapolate, bitches!
For another OF, why is no one mentioning Jermaine Dye? He’s always underrated and having another quietly awesome season.
by David G on Aug 11, 2009 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Probably just because of age
And the money he’s owed, and the fact he needs to be a dh. I think he’s owed like 11.5 next year if his contract isn’t bought out. Plus the previous demands from the white sox were kind of outlandish. I feel like in the current market you should be able to get much more for around 11.5 million than a one year 37 year old stop gap.
by Gina on Aug 11, 2009 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's old and a shitty fielder
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
by Evan_S on Aug 11, 2009 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Compared to Moises Alou
he’s a spring chicken and a gold glover.
by David G on Aug 11, 2009 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Not really
2007 Moises Alou: 703 innings played in left – -6.3 UZR (-12.5 UZR/150)
2009 Jermaine Dye: 841.2 innings played in right – -13.4 UZR (-17.1 UZR/150)
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
by Evan_S on Aug 11, 2009 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Zone ratings
are for the weak, and silly to base an entire argument on, they are simply not accurate enough yet. More importantly, LF is a power position, you are going to have poor fielder out there more than not. You want an all glove, no bat guy there? Please. At a certain point, you take the lost D in order to get the extra O, just as they did with Sheff this year. Dye is still an outstanding hitter and would fill the huge black hole that is LF, plus he stays healthy and would eliminate the need for clowns like Sully and Reed. This team is extremely power starved, Dye would help a great deal. Plus, Beltran could cover him some in center. And he’ll only be 36 next year. We gave Alou 5 mil when he was 40!
by David G on Aug 11, 2009 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't want an all bat no glove or all glove no bat guy
But Nyjer Morgan has been more valuable this year than Jermaine Dye.
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
by Evan_S on Aug 11, 2009 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah
and Nyjer Morgan’s not available. Next suggestion?
by David G on Aug 11, 2009 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was just making a point how defense is undervalued
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
by Evan_S on Aug 11, 2009 7:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh
And poor Beltran shouldn’t have to cover for anyone. The man can only be expected to do so much on his knees and playing center field and a most right field is asking way too much.
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
by Evan_S on Aug 11, 2009 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He likes it
He has no prob cutting off anyone in the outfield. Didn’t you see that game in LA when he ran over Pagan? He’s Kelly Leak out there, and if they are at the point where they are going to be babying Beltran, then they are really screwed.
by David G on Aug 11, 2009 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well considering his knee injury this year was almost career ending
And he’s in his 30s, I would imagine asking him to cover even more ground in such a massive outfield is a kind of awful idea. It’s not about babying him it’s about being realistic with a 30+ year old with a history of hip/knee problems that we can afford to lose.
by Gina on Aug 11, 2009 6:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nyjer Morgan begs to differ.
And you’re using the Alou contract as why we SHOULD sign Dye? Just because we gave out a medium contract to a very old player doesn’t mean we should give a big one to a slightly younger one. And UZR accounts for position. That is how many runs he is below the average LEFT FIELDER, not outfielders in general. If you want to base a claim on how inaccurate something is, be accurate when doing so.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Aug 11, 2009 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hey, it's a suggestion
and it was more for left field than right. Who do you want playing out there? You want to come back next year with Beltran and Wright as your only legit power threats, when neither one has shown much power this year? You’re not going to win with a bunch of slap hitters.
by David G on Aug 11, 2009 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I imagine Dye would take a pretty massive slugging hit moving from that bandbox
to citi too. his away slugging numbers havent been entirely impressive the last few years.
by Gina on Aug 11, 2009 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Same could be said
for any power hitter you bring into a bigger park. You still need those guys, though.
by David G on Aug 11, 2009 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not if they can’t field and are overpriced.
ain't had enough...
by BlackOps on Aug 11, 2009 6:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I understand
UZR completely, no need to explain that part, please don’t continue to explain it. I’m saying LF is a position where the Mets can afford to go for a bat and lose a little range. Plus, UZR rating that is not exactly 100% accurate, we know this, why do you guys give it so much weight? I guess you guys take UZR as gospel, so we’ll not see eye to eye on that. Dye on a 1 year or two year contract would help this team, and be a huge upgrade over what they’ve had out there this year.
But if we can all agree that Paris is the capital of France, then we’re back in agreement.
by David G on Aug 11, 2009 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Zone Ratings
Are a pretty good thing to use if the assertion they’re addressing is “Compared to Moises Alou, [Jermaine Dye is]… a gold glover.” The rest of what you’re saying here is not at all relevant to the point Evan_S was making.
by JoshNY on Aug 11, 2009 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
seth smith would be great but im not sure he's going anywhere.
by KeithsMoustache on Aug 11, 2009 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You can offer someone with a high ceiling
from the low class A like a Jeffrey Marte. Or a reliever like Feliciano with another minor leaguer. There are a few good outfielders who are block on their teams who are very good. Another example is Matt Joyce
by LCT on Aug 12, 2009 12:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
no way
holliday for a little less than 7 per? no way does that get it done. he’s the premium player, i’m sure he’ll get somewhere in the neighborhoood of 5 years and 70 mil.
by njk237 on Aug 11, 2009 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
He’ll probably get something similar to the Rios deal, especially considering that he is currently hitting .459 in 16 games with the Cards. If he hits like that the rest of the season and the playoffs, I wouldnt be shocked to see him get 14 or even 15 million per.
by Steeeve on Aug 11, 2009 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
remember
bad economy. Only the yankees could really afford him
he;ll probably go to the Yanks
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
by firejerrynow on Aug 11, 2009 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
$20M over 3? Oy.
Do you mean $20 million a year, or $6.67 million a year?
One’s overpaying, and the other gets guffaws. Many, many guffaws.
by LeiterMilnerFasterStronger on Aug 11, 2009 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Stars and scrubs
My fantasy team partner has a theory about building fantasy teams: stars and scrubs, meaning you build a team around 6 or 7 high-priced stars, and then fill the rest of the roster out with bargain-priced players. He has won the league title four out of six years, and I’m basically along for the ride on number five here.
I guess I’m just wondering if the same method is at all applicable to real-world baseball. I know that fantasy and real baseball are different in many ways, but there’s something to this that could work for the Mets. Obviously I don’t think the Mets should go out and acquire scrubs – worthless or completely average players coughJoeyCoracoughFrancouercough, but just competent players who provide bang for their buck – the sort of guy who posts a 1 or 2 WAR for under $4 million (just to use an example).
I guess it’s not a radically different idea than what Balagast was proposing up above.
by dcmetsfan on Aug 11, 2009 10:48 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yea but by fantasy scrubs
I’m guessin he means waiver wire type guys who are valuable, but not rated well going into the season. For instance, I grabbed Wandy Rodriguez the 2nd week of the season b/c he was a “scrub” before the draft.
The mets are a team of stars and scrubs, except their scrubs are really actually scrubs, i.e. people with Zach Braff level baseball talent.
by dtro on Aug 11, 2009 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, that's a better way of describing it
It’s the guys who are simply under-valued. They’re not big-name players but they provide a lot more value than the role players the Mets continue to stack their team with.
by dcmetsfan on Aug 11, 2009 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
In fantasy, your stars aren't really playing with those scrubs
Whereas on a real team, they are.
by SupT on Aug 11, 2009 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Question for you :
Who is Joey Cora?
I know the Mets have an ALEX Cora….maybe he has a brother in the MLB that we don’t know about.
by MetsGod on Aug 11, 2009 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No kidding....does he play baseball, too?
If so, what’s dcmetsfan’s basis for calling him a “worthless or completely average player”?
by MetsGod on Aug 11, 2009 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Um...
2B and occasional SS. Played from the late 80s to the late 90s.
Meh-to-good glove. No power to speak of. Decent OBP guy.
Seemed to be in every baseball-card pack ever purchased by humans during the late 80s/early 90s.
by LeiterMilnerFasterStronger on Aug 11, 2009 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dude scored the tying run for the Mariners
in Game 5 of the 1995 ALDS vs the Yankees. Cora singled off Jack MacDowell, Griffey followed with another single and then Edgar Martinez smacked a double that scored them both. Great play, great series.
by Zwill on Aug 11, 2009 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dude had giant ears.
"He's definitely mixing it into his repertoire. That's French for 'repertoire' " - Keith Hernandez
by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Aug 11, 2009 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
LOL! No wonder Cora looks so serious when he's on the field....
He doesn’t want anyone to mistake him for his goofy-looking older brother. ;)
by MetsGod on Aug 11, 2009 8:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I can't tell if you're being serious or not
but either way it’s hilarious
You don't cheer for the Mets. You drink for the Mets.
by Kevin H on Aug 11, 2009 9:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If they could stretch to
sign Holliday, trade for Harang and sign Joel Pineiro, I think that would be most useful.
I don’t mind Reyes SS, Beltran CF, Wright 3B, Holliday LF, Murphy 1B, Francouer RF as a top six. Then it gets tricky. I would favour trading Castillo for a mid level prospect, eating $3m of next year’s money in the process, and letting Anderson Hernandez start and bat eighth. Or ninth, if they are willing to be La Russa – esque. A Wright-Reyes-Hernandez-Murph infield would be D-lightful. I have great confidence in Murph at 1st (Defense-wise) regardless of last night’s MIA. As for catcher, I’d be happy with Schneider again, or Thole perhaps. Whoever it would be would bat 7th and not be expected to put up much in the way of offense.
Pagan, Cora, Thole (if not starting) or Santos (if Thole starting), Evans, Tatis on the bench. (i.e. this year’s starters!)
I don’t mind Thole on the bench because he could start three games a week, two at catcher and one at first, if needs be.
F! could come up and replace Francouer when he is inevitably still mediocre at mid-season.
A rotation of Santana, Pelfrey, Harang, Pineiro and best of Perez/Maine/Niese would also be pretty decent, leaving at least one back-up option and not yet dipping into the minor league talent.
All told, I am hoping for Holliday to come in and provide consistent offensive numbers, Murph to get a bit better, Reyes to be healthy and those pitchers to keep in line with recent career numbers. That, I reckon, would be an 88-92 win team which I fear is the best we can hope for with the current salary constraints and lack of ML-ready prospects. Would be much more fun to watch than this lot though.
by deadspy3 on Aug 11, 2009 11:31 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
sorry but...
We can’t Frenchy on the team ’cause he sucks.
The End.
(that’s basically the gist of 99% of the intelligent folk here…..I’m not that intelligent. lol)
by MetsGod on Aug 11, 2009 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would mind Frenchy as a starter.
We can replace him with a bargain basement signing, though, so I’m not too worried.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Aug 11, 2009 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well me too, but
if he’s sticking around isn’t that helpful on the bench due to his single position…
by deadspy3 on Aug 11, 2009 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not against Frenchy as a starter opening day,
as long as we push for a good LF. F! should be able to force Frency out of the lineup, and I like Frenchy as a pinch hitter type.
"If I ever decide to do a book, I've already got the title...The bases were loaded and so was I."
-Jim Fregosi
by Schmidtxc on Aug 11, 2009 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I want our outfield to be
Carl Crawford, Carlos Beltran and Francoeur to start the year, with Fernando in AAA putting up a .586/.712/.1.298 line through at least mid May. Then call up F! and trade Francoeur. Obviously F! won’t be able to put up that line in the majors, but I expect something similar.
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
by Evan_S on Aug 11, 2009 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Meh I don't see Holliday happening
Like someone else said it seems like Frenchy is here to stay and they’re not going to block F-mart.
by Gina on Aug 11, 2009 12:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't mind Figgins.
At least he’s relatively consistent and versatile.
Holliday, no way. Delgado, no way. Derosa, no thanks.
This team is in a rough spot, because we don’t have enough power out of our corner infield and outfield.
by Mex_17 on Aug 11, 2009 1:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
So why no Holliday?
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
by Evan_S on Aug 11, 2009 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like Holliday
but I think he’s going to get ~15 mil, because he’s the best of a bad crop of free agents. The top tier guys still got paid last year, it was the 2nd tier guys like Abreu, Hudson, Burrell, etc. that were bought on the cheap.
Now if you get Holliday and get creative with some trades and 2nd tier guys it could work. But if Omar is by some hellish miracle still here and wants Holliday, we know that that is the only thing he can do. He is unable to think about more than one thing at a time, so Holliday would mean Jose Lima and Claudio Vargas rounding out the rotation.
by dtro on Aug 11, 2009 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Holliday
Before this season, the consensus on him was that his success was a product of Coors field, and the A’s were making a mistake by taking him. And it seems like that sort of panned out.
by Mex_17 on Aug 11, 2009 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't disagree
but he was still good with the bat this year, and is very good in the outfield. If we can get him somewhat cheap I would want him. I still think Crawford would be the best fit for us though
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
by Evan_S on Aug 11, 2009 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Crawford is great but what is he going to cost?
by JoshNY on Aug 11, 2009 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thole, Familia and Tejada?
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
by Evan_S on Aug 11, 2009 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Looking at their trade values
Which is Better Compensation: Prospects or Draft Picks?
Amazin’ Avenue Chat Transcript: John Sickels On Mets Prospects
Thole: C+ = 2.1
Familia C+/B- = 2.1 to 7.3 (4.7)
Tejada: C/C+ = 0.7
I mentioned 15m worth of prospects earlier, but I think that is for trading now (1.5 years left) Link. To trade for 2010, it might be around 10m value (wild guess). So, we would need Thole to continue improving to get a B grade (5.5) or add more prospects.
by Michkin on Aug 11, 2009 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This year, Holliday is currently 3.9 WAR.
So, uh, he’s still really good.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Aug 11, 2009 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But a part of that is his ridiculous time with St. Louis
In 72 PA he has a .520 wOBA and 11.5 wRAA when in 400 PA in Oakland he had a very good .367 wOBA and 12.8 wRAA. So it’s possible Citi may kill his offense even more so than Oakland did
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
by Evan_S on Aug 11, 2009 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fair enough.
He’s still valuable, though, and would be most likely the best option out of anyone else we could pick up.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Aug 11, 2009 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with you, I was just clearing up on why Mex didn't want him.
I think Holliday should definitely be a top target for the Mets
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
by Evan_S on Aug 11, 2009 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Citi will kill any good offensive players numbers
but we still need to target good offensive players
"If I ever decide to do a book, I've already got the title...The bases were loaded and so was I."
-Jim Fregosi
by Schmidtxc on Aug 11, 2009 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly
Home runs are still a part of the game. I love OBP, but I also like a little slg. Eight Luis Castillos aren’t going to win you a lot of games.
by David G on Aug 11, 2009 6:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
more than 8 Jeff Francoeurs
ain't had enough...
by BlackOps on Aug 11, 2009 6:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Either answer would lead to some REALLY good draft picks
"If I ever decide to do a book, I've already got the title...The bases were loaded and so was I."
-Jim Fregosi
by Schmidtxc on Aug 11, 2009 6:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And in his time with oakland
his protection was Jason Giambi, Nomar, and Bobby Crosby. He went from a great hitters park to a crappy one, huge foul territory, with the worst line-up in major league baseball. Some of what happened is park effects but I think a large part of it had to do with shitty line-up.
By the way the park factors
Runs Hr’s Hits Doubles Trips Walks
22 Citi Field (New York, NY) 0.937 1.164 0.963 0.973 1.451 0.956
23 Oakland Coliseum (Oakland, California) 0.934 0.965 0.926 0.926 0.931 0.906
by Delgado on Aug 11, 2009 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Formatting issues
Runs Hr’s Hits Doubles Trips Walks
22 0.937 1.164 0.963 0.973 1.451 0.956
23 0.934 0.965 0.926 0.926 0.931 0.906
Looking at these statistics Citi Field doesn’t seem that bad. There seems to have been an abnormally low run rate for extra base hits per game.
Thinking about park effects, imagine if you had they best pitching staff in baseball and the worst hitting team in baseball. Would that change your park effects for that season? The offense wouldn’t score and the other team wouldn’t score much because of the great pitching hmmmmmm
by Delgado on Aug 11, 2009 5:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We don't have enough power out of our corner infield and outfield.
Ok…so why no Holliday?
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Aug 11, 2009 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What does everyone think about shin-soo choo?
i’m not sure if he’s a free agent this year or next..
"The Mets have shown me more ways to lose than I even knew existed."
-Casey Stengel
by He'sGotPotential on Aug 11, 2009 7:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
He's not a free agent until 2014
and he’ll cost ALOT in a trade.
"If I ever decide to do a book, I've already got the title...The bases were loaded and so was I."
-Jim Fregosi
by Schmidtxc on Aug 11, 2009 7:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
nevermind then
i thought if he was a free agent…but i have no idea where i got that idea..
"The Mets have shown me more ways to lose than I even knew existed."
-Casey Stengel
by He'sGotPotential on Aug 11, 2009 7:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Branyan
I think branyan at first next year wouldnt be bad. he would give us some much needed power and we wouldnt need to overpay for holliday with him in the lineup. we could sign derosa or a lower tier outfielder because we’re not in need of the big power bat. I would still love to have holliday, but i wouldnt be pressured to get him if we signed branyan.
"The Mets have shown me more ways to lose than I even knew existed."
-Casey Stengel
by He'sGotPotential on Aug 11, 2009 7:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't think Branyan is the answer...
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/branyru01.shtml?redir
He’s been pretty bad for his whole career, and looking at his monthly splits shows a pretty big regression the last few months. He had a very nice 3 month run, but Signing him based on that is awfully similar to the mistake Omar made on Tatis this season and Marlon Anderson the year before.
"If I ever decide to do a book, I've already got the title...The bases were loaded and so was I."
-Jim Fregosi
by Schmidtxc on Aug 11, 2009 8:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs






















