Ruben Tejada Profile
by METSMETSMETS on Aug 12, 2009 11:43 AM EDT
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Print(bumped from FanPosts. --eric)
Between here and MinorLeagueBall.com, I've seen a lot of Mets top prospects lists. In the Top 5 I've seen Jefry Marte, and I've also seen Eddie Kunz and Scott Moviel ranked considerably high for themselves. What I've also seen is some clear underrating of one Ruben Tejada. One blogger considered Ruben Tejada "Luis Castillo sans Speed." So I'm gonna give Tejada the love he deserves.
Ruben Tejada is going to be the Mets' replacement for Luis Castillo at 2B. I'll give you the rundown on exactly who he is:
Birthdate: 09/01/1989
Age: 19
League: AA (Eastern League)
Height: 5'11"
Weight: 165
As you can see, Tejada is a small, young player in a league of big guys who are usually ages 22-24. So what makes this kid so special in my eye? Let's do some scouting:
Contact Ability: Tejada is probably best known for his ability to make contact with the ball. At 17, his first pro season, he spent his Summer in Rookie League for the GCL Mets. Tejada received 120 At-bats (150 PAs) of hitting, in which his K-rate was just 13.3%, which in today's game is considerably low. Tejada hit for a .327 BABIP as well. After being aggressively promoted to A+ ball in St. Lucie, Tejada had a slightly raised K-rate, but his BABIP decreased toa .268. His swing was no match for FSL pitchers. In 2009, Tejada has been demonstrating some very positive signs. First off, his BABIP was raised back to a good and sustainable .328. Secondly, his K-rate diminished to a career-low 12.7%. Part of he reborn success is some leveling of his swing which still has a bit of a loopy quality in the beginnig, but also he's just plain stronger than he was a couple years ago. I'm expecting his BABIP to increase another .010 to .015 points as he bulks up past his scrawny size.
Power: Ruben Tejada's power is truly absent. In his 3 year career, his ISO's have been .083, .066, and .088. However, there is nowhere to go but up. Tejada is rather scrawny as mentioned and could stand to gain another 20 pounds in the weight room. This should be a great deal of help to Ruben, who already has a decent amount of power to the pull side. This power is caused by Ruben's very nice natural bat speed. Tejada will probably receive more doubles the other way as well as more homers to left if he can bulk up a bit, and some of it will come with age. A 15 homer hitter at best in the majors. I'd expect around 8-12 a year.
Speed: Tejada was and is one of the fastest members of the Mets' farm system, which may seem confusing considering that he's only stolen 24 bases over 3 years of pro ball. Tejada's speed is evident in his range in the field, but rather absent in his baserunning numbers. His lack of stolen bases or even triples for that matter is because going into this year Tejada was a butcher on the basepaths. He got terrible jumps for stealing (explaining last year's horrible 8-for-13 in the stolen base department) and got terrible rounds around the bases (which explains the low triple numbers as well as some of the low ISO). Tejada has speed to steal 40 bases a year, and is starting to show it off. In his last 10 games Tejada has been 5-for-5 in base stealing, and is 14-for-16 this year in AA.
Fielding: Tejada is a very good fielder. It's pretty easy to explain as well. He has an above average arm for a shortstop and wonderful reactions and range for one as well. I can't imagine the move to second base will be too hard.
Plate Discipline: Tejada is the owner of an MLB average walk rate, which is pretty impressive for a kid in way over his head. It might improve to the levels of his Rookie League year as he matures, it might not. The great aspect of his discipline is his really low K-rate. Because of it, his BB/K rate is a very good 0.63.
Overall: A B- prospect at this point. I have him as the #7 prospect in the Mets system. Should have a good amount of .300/.370/.430 seasons if he pans out, and could have an outstanding prime.
Some footage:
Clip -- at the 0:55 mark Tejada exhibits some of his pull-side power with a Homer off of a low pitch by Madison Bumgarner.
Clip -- throughout the video you'll see 4 of Tejada's hits. He's the open stanced righty hitter.
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I'm still a Reese Havens fan.
That said, Tejada is beginning to win me over.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
It would be nice to display his LD% with his BABIP
Even though batted balls in minors are not that reliable (at least GB% are), we can have an idea if his low BABIP is product of unluck or low LD%.
Also, Sickles ranks Thole as C+
On Sickels
Hit-and-Run, Wednesday, May 20, 2009: He’s worth keeping an eye on definitely, and I would raise his grade to at least a C+ now
On LD% (which I think is BS, but interpret it how you want), I can’t find it on any of the free websites, and I don’t subscribe to any.
by METSMETSMETS on Aug 12, 2009 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions
Yea, that's where I took the C+ from Thole
Good info on Tejada speed/baserunning development and videos are always a plus.
minorleaguesplits.com
good resource for batted ball info. Its not THAT useful for minor leaguers except as a loose guideline, the GB% is useful though.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 12, 2009 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions
LineDrive% is BS?
So you think a batter can control his babip, but he can’t control the number of line-drives he hits? I’m not sure I understand your point here. Unless he is a slap-hitter like Ichiro or Castillo, isn’t the single most important thing a batter can do to hit line-drives?
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
i imagine he means line drives are way too open for interpretation in minor league games
Their completely reliant on judgment calls of scorers who aren’t nearly as accurate as in the major leagues.
If that's the case
then why look at babip at all? Is luck now a repeatable skill?
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
Well I was talking specifically about minor leagues
And really I remember the hardball times doing an article talking about how looking blindley at BABIP and LD% blindley can be misleading since certain skill sets make a big difference. like speedy slap hitters with low ld%’s who beat out a lot of would be outs.
This.
Line drives are pretty subjective, what do you consider a bloop some could see it as a weak line drive while others could see it as a weak flyball. At the minor league level, the subjectiveness is more of a problem than the ML level for whatever reason, I don’t actually know the reason (assuming stricter regs and more peer review or computers and such)
Hooray for Hit F/X!
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 13, 2009 12:16 AM EDT up reply actions
They aren’t doing Hit f/x for MiLB, though, are they?
Also, I understand why LD% and babip are not always perfectly related, but how is “looking blindly at BABIP and LD%” worse than looking only at BABIP?
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
Because BABIP is fixed
You can calculate BABIP just by looking at a players statline*. LD% is subjective, there are lots of unaccounted for variances that we just don’t don’t have enough information to appropriately correct for. GB% is useful because its far less subjective, but the differences between FBs and LDs isn’t quite so clear. You can do pretty typical regressions just using BABIP that should simply conform to normal distribution, but its not going to work that way with LD%.
*H – HR / PA – (SO + BB + HBP + HR) = BABIP
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 13, 2009 6:59 PM EDT up reply actions
I know how to calculate BABIP
The point I’m making is that a large portion of BABIP is luck, which cannot be reproduced. If anything, without batted-ball data, I would prefer to see Tejada posting good OBP numbers with a low BABIP.
Since we see no batted balls and none of us have actually seen him play, I fail to see how his falling and rising BABIP are necessarily due to him making adjustments and are not related him to being lucky or unlucky.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
Oh I agree with you on that
I’m just pointing out that we can subject BABIP to a higher level of analytical scrutiny than LD%. You can apply standard regressions and rules to BABIP, since it should be expected to conform to normal distribution. Determining whether variance is a product of luck or skill is another question. I just don’t think adding LD% to the equation tells you all that much more in this case. If anything, building a case that Ruben has good footspeed and a high GB% is more relevant, as those are things that can combine to bump a players BABIP above expected levels.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 13, 2009 8:31 PM EDT up reply actions
except
that fielding in the minors (particularly lower minors) is terrible, so players should have higher BABIP on grounders there than in the majors.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
True
But again, there’s still league norms we can compare BABIPs to. The League BABIP for the EL this year is .299, so in this case, that seems to gel with standard defensive expectation. In the lower levels, I would expect the league BABIP to be higher though.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 13, 2009 9:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Great point
But don’t forget that Flyball BABIP is probably not going to be affected by bad fielding as much as groundball BABIP, so a GB-hitter (particularly a fast one, like Tejada)’s BABIP should be inflated more than the average BABIP.
I do not have any evidence to support that claim, but it does seem to make sense to me. What do you think?
Again, in my honest opinion, batted ball data are going to be a more reliable method to determine how successful he’ll be going forward than just looking at his BABIP. I understand that LD/Fly data are not perfect, but why not just call the ones we don’t know fliners and give 1/2 point to each? That’s got to be better than just giving credit for Texas Leaguers and taking it away for line-drives right at the third baseman.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
Very fair point
I think the problem is one of sample size though. In a season, a hitter will usually put about 450ish balls in play maybe? If 45% of those are flyballs and 15% LDs, that’s only 270 balls put in the air. There’s just going to be too much variance batter to batter to use any kind of linear regression.
But your idea that BABIP on grounders should be higher in the minors is an interesting one. Tejada’s .285 BABIP on groundballs is high. High enough so that its fair to ask the question whether this is an issue of luck, or if there’s a significant rate of sustainable infield hits that he gets because of his speed. His .217 BABIP on FBs is also a bit high, but his .680 BABIP on LDs is actually quite low. Then again, you might intuitively expect there to be less of a difference on LDs in the minors, since they generally have to be hit right at a fielder to be at all playable.
Getting back to the GB%, I think we have some evidence to assume that there is some sustainable BABIP to Ruben’s GB%. Even last year, when his overall BABIP was low, his BABIP on GBs was still .223, which is low, but not when compared to his overall BABIP of .270. More than anything, this is probably just something to watch for as he progresses. Hopefully he can keep his BABIP on GBs up, but its not a given, and whether he does or doesn’t will certainly help indicate whether his high BABIP this year is luck-based or skill-based.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 13, 2009 10:17 PM EDT up reply actions
I like the tools.
But unless said tools— plate selection, defensive range, speed/bat speed— are superlative (and I don’t see that here), consistent performance— regardless of age— is my benchmark for moving a guy above a C/C+.
by LeiterMilnerFasterStronger on Aug 12, 2009 11:33 AM EDT reply actions
I like Tejada a lot
But I consider him a C+ with upside at this point, but that’s my own personal preference for grading players with higher rates of attrition slightly lower but noting the upside. His numbers for his age and league are good, but I like to see the numbers catch up before I grade higher, again just a personal preference, I’m also a tough grader on things like movies, music and such. To give you guys a better idea of Tejada’s season let’s take a look at the Minor League Equivalency calculator. At the age of 19, it would be perfectly reasonable for him to be in A ball right now; however, more likely he would be in A+. Here are the MLEs
Actual AA line – .293/.357/.380 (remember Bingo inflates batters)
MLE A+ line in St Lucie – .290/.361/.381 (St Lucie is a pitchers park)
MLE A line in Hagers – .332/.415/.440
If he was a 19 year old in Hagerstown putting up that line, I’m pretty sure Mets fans would be giving him the credit that he is due.
idk bout Binghamton specifically
but I do know of the Eastern League as a pitcher’s paradise almost equivalent to the FSL
by METSMETSMETS on Aug 12, 2009 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions
No its not nearly that bad
The League Average OPS in the FSL this year is freakin’ .684. Blech. Its .721 in the EL. The league leading OPS in the FSL is .863 (our boy Lutz). Its .977 in the EL (Michael Taylor).
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 12, 2009 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions
Binghamton itself is a hitter's park, i've been to a couple of games there
"I reject your reality and substitute my own"
-Adam Savage
by blueandorange4life on Aug 12, 2009 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, I went to college in Bingo
I was there every tuesday and thursday because they didn’t card me and kept going because of the two for one deals, really can’t beat beer vendors that just have a keg strapped to their back. Saw Scott Kazmir’s first start in bingo, loved going to games there. Anyways, you don’t really need the data to tell you the place is a hitters park, straight away CF is only 400 ft and it’s 330 down the line with still plenty of room in the gaps.
Did you go to SUNY Bing?
I almost went there, but Binghamton is just so damn gray, which is not a great feature for someone who tends to get pretty bad seasonal depression. That and the amount of asians. I’m by no means racist, but being a white kid from the burbs… it’s a little uncomfortable suddenly being in the minority!
Erm...the Asian thing is very overblown
Maybe I’m biased being half Japanese and half Polish but asians account for like 25% of the SUNY Bings population. White people are still the majority but less so then in other areas. Regardless, it’s always good to meet people from different cultures. Anyways, Binghamton has a higher percentage of overcast days than Seattle and London which contributes to one of the highest suicide rates in the country. In my last year, my friends and I lived in a house off campus that was a block away from a number of shootings and there was a crack dealer across the street from us. Still, all and all, my college life was dope and I wouldn’t have changed a thing.
of course
they had that mass-muder thing not so long ago.
I get down in the gray weather myself, but not when I was in college. Back then I slept mostly during the day. And yes, classes were during the day. I still have dreams about having an exam coming up and never having gone to class, and I graduated 23 years ago.
Worse than Seattle, huh? I lucked out last time I was in London. Sunny all week.
Probably overblown
It was probably just because all the tour guides were Asian :-P
I was also not a fan of their dorm system. They dont match people by year, so theoretically a freshman could be matched with a senior, and you couldnt even request to be roomed with another freshman. Also too science-inclined for my taste, as I was more liberal arts at the time and later switched to business.
The SUNY system has some great academics, but the locations leave a lot to be desired. I almost went to Albany too, but all the concrete up there was just as depressing as the clouds in Bingo.
I had a senior
roomie my freshman year. Woke up to the sound of “blub, blub, blub, blub” and he looked up and said “Bong hit for breakfast, dude?” Why not?
SUNY
Purchase has a great pedigree in education. Has a nice Cafeteria as well.
Location is terrible though.
SUNY Stony Brook has a solid sports pedigree also.
by METSMETSMETS on Aug 12, 2009 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Here's my thing with Tejada
He’s got the “old player skills” down. The question now is physical development. A bit of pop would go a long way with a guy who can work the count the way Tejada can, but it just may not be in the cards. He’s only 5’11" 165 lbs right now, even if he does gain 20 lbs as you suggest, he still won’t be a large man. He’s got nice first-step quickness in the field, but he’s not a tools guy at all, and not a burner with huge top speed either.
I do think Luis Castillo light undersells Tejada. That’s not a totally unfair comp though, in that Tejada seems like he could be as good or a bit better than Luis in just about every way. He can play SS, he has a better arm, he should have a bit more power, contact rate is similar, BB%, etc.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 12, 2009 11:46 AM EDT reply actions
Hey Meddler just want to point out
The “old player skills” are power, walks, low average and lack of speed. If a player has the latter then it indicates decline will come faster and harder. I know you were using the term in a different way, but you kind of confused me.
My bad
I always treated it as the skills players tend to develop as they get older (plate discipline, pitch selection, fielding instincts, etc). Thanks for the clarification.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 12, 2009 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions
He could either be Castillo
Or he could be Anderson Hernandez. Sounds like he has a pretty high floor as a backup utility infielder, but I’m not really seeing tremendous upside. No disrespect to Castillo who has had a wonderful career, but it’s not really saying much when turning into Castillo is your best case scenario.
Yeah except for the obp and walks
which is a big difference between him and Hernandez, it seems like the problem is his offensive numbers are going to be on the meh side for a second basemen, and it’s unlikely he’ll ever play short stop for us.
Hmmm
You seem to be putting it past the ignorant Mets FO to consider trading Reyes this offseason.
by DannyMetsGeek on Aug 12, 2009 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions
If he'd been healthy for the last few months
It wouldn’t be that crazy, but its impossible to get good value for him now.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 12, 2009 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Saved from ourselves
I thought about that too. But you seem to be putting it past the Mets FO to trade Reyes at his lowest possible value.
haha
by DannyMetsGeek on Aug 12, 2009 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh I'm not saying they definitely won't do it
Just that it might not have been crazy if he had true Reyes market value.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 12, 2009 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Fair enough, fair enough
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 12, 2009 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't think there's any chance
there’d be too much of a fan backlash I would think. And we know how the wilpons feel about bad press.
he has speed
And secondly, at 19, castillo hit 0 homers and his ISO was .36 in the midwest league. This kids ISO is in the .80s and he has 4 homers in AA at 19. He doesn’t have much power, but WAY more than castillo ever did. he doesn’t walk like Luis or have the SBs quite down yet, but i’ll take 14 of 16 sb, his line this year.
Gave him a B+
which is aggressive.
He walked a lot early in the season. Seems he has stopped walking as he got hot. But a super fast guy holding his own at AA at 19 with good ss defense, with good bat control, who is improving by leaps and bounds, between seasons and inta-season it seems. Well, sign me up. I suppose homer blinder off he is B-/C+, but I tghink he has an outside shot to be a star. Even 22 is young for your average AA guy and that is 3 years away for this kid. He should be tearing it up in the NYPL right now.
I'm not sure he's so fast
Goldstein has been downplaying his tools for a few years now. I’d be surprised if he ever stole 40 bases.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 12, 2009 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions
That's because Goldstein hates the very idea of the Mets having a successful farm system.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
Goldstein
did an interview with MetsGeek before the draft last season, where he revealed that little tidbit. Great interview, he spent over an hour and a half on the phone with Aaron despite it being the week before the draft.
I never got that impression from him
but perhaps it’s more subtle than I picked up on.
by TheBigStapler on Aug 13, 2009 9:19 AM EDT up reply actions
cool
I had read elsewhere he was very fast-but if he is ok speed and 14-16 sb in 2/3rds a year, that’s ok. he doesn’t need bliding speed to be valuable. I had also heard he was a good glove man.
But a 19 year old close to .750 in AA, and he’s a ss? That’s a chance to be quite good.
Oh I'm not saying he won't be valuable
I think he has an impressively high floor for a 19 year old, but that doesn’t necessarily come with a high ceiling either. I agree with Gina’s assessment that right now, it looks like his likely outcome right in that grey area offensively between being an above average SS and an average 2B.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 12, 2009 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions
He's freakin fast.
I went to a few MiLB Spring Training days and saw him outrunning Manny Garcia and Ezequiel Carrarra in 2008
by METSMETSMETS on Aug 12, 2009 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions
B-
I don’t see how he is anything lower than a B- at this point. I don’t understand the notion that he is not “toolsy”. He seems to be well above-average with 4 of the 5 tools to me. And since when did a middle infielder have to hit for power to be valuable?
by DannyMetsGeek on Aug 12, 2009 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions
I think the point is
He’s not like, Carlos Beltran or Jose Reyes “Toolsy”. His speed is good, not great. His arm is good, not great. His power isn’t awful, but its tough to project him to be better than average for a MI, and probably below average for a 2B. His contact is the only real “plus plus” tool.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 12, 2009 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions
I hear ys
I just think if you can hit for average (with good plate discipline) and play good middle infield defense (which in itself guarantees a certain level of athleticism, since reports on his speed seem to conflict), then you are at least a B- prospect for me. That’s immensely valuable in any system.
by DannyMetsGeek on Aug 12, 2009 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah I'm with you
I’m right on the fence of C+/B-, and its more a question of projectability than anything. If he adds strength without losing agility, he’s going to be a very, very good player. If he doesn’t gain much strength, unless he becomes an expert baserunner with true top tier speed, its hard to see him being much more than a bench player/fringe regular.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 12, 2009 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions
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