Joe Pos Ranks the Worst Contracts in Baseball

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over 2 years ago Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright 22 comments 0 recs |

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I think he's a little harsh on Rios

by TheBigStapler on Aug 12, 2009 2:06 PM EDT reply actions

Yeah I don't see Rios's contract as that bad.

And I don’t think Wood’s is that bad either. Considering the market for closers, Fuentes got what 8 million? K-rod got his huge contract. Wood was kind of a steal.

by Gina on Aug 12, 2009 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions

Although I can MAYBE understand if his reasoning is that with the bad contracts the jays already had

And the owners wanting to lower payroll they should have known they couldn’t keep Rios on that contract.

by Gina on Aug 12, 2009 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions

There's some weird stuff there.

Soriano “underrated”? Seriously? And the business about “grading on a curve” so the Royals get high on the list for a relatively pedestrian overpay is weird and unjustifiable, a kind of antihomerism. It’s a nice article and he’s got some good stuff to say, but as a ranked list it seems pretty nuts to me.

by anonymous on Aug 12, 2009 2:49 PM EDT reply actions

Yeah agreed

I get his point about the use of resources (with regard to Guillen) but it does seem like maybe he’s reaching a little because he’s having so much fun beating up on the Royals this year.

"He's definitely mixing it into his repertoire. That's French for 'repertoire' " - Keith Hernandez

by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Aug 12, 2009 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions

Was it really a pedistrian overpay?

That’s an honest question I didn’t pay as much attention to contracts and what not as I do now back then so I don’t know what the market was like then. Also I can understand the grading on a curve, the Red Sox/Yankees might overpay for a player they want because they know they can afford it but a front office for teams like KC or the A’s should be a lot more careful with funds. So IMO at least the decision is even dumber

by Gina on Aug 12, 2009 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions

it wasn't a good contract by any means

They presumably saw 3 years, $36M as a reasonable gamble to take on a guy with a potentially great bat who’d worn out his welcome elsewhere with personality problems. He was never really close to that valuable, and especially for a 3-year deal they should’ve been getting him at a much lower annual value. But if the deal wasn’t at the exact peak of the market, it was at least made before the market had cooled to the extent it now has — and compared to the long-term contracts on that list, any mere 3-year deal would have to be a truly grotesque overpayment to seem at all bad.

by anonymous on Aug 12, 2009 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions

Brian Roberts

easily earns his contract. 103+ ops that Pos complains about, he seems to ignore that ain’t awful for a 2b who steals, etc.

As for fangraphs defense of Rios’s contract, they put too much emphasis on how accurately they can value fielding. The hitting we know sucks. And this year, factoring it all in, he isn’t worth it. certainly not to a Blue jay team that can’t spend 1/7th of its payroll or so on him.

Wells contract is worse, but no one else will take Wells off JP’s hands.

by wobatus on Aug 12, 2009 3:39 PM EDT reply actions

They can value feidling pretty well

Especially over a couple year sample size. And it’s easily likely that Rios is actually a better fielder than his UZR ratings.

F*** Billy Beane... actually, I kinda like Holliday

by vivaelpujols on Aug 13, 2009 4:15 AM EDT up reply actions

true

pretty well, but not as easily as hitting, even if over several years you get a pretty good idea (I just don’t think runs prevented will be quite as accurate as hitting) but his fielding value this year isn’t as high. His hitting value is decreasing. And dollar value of a player above replacement is worth different amounts to different teams.

And that contract was signed within a month of the S&P 500 peaking above 1400 last May, 2008. It plunged 53% within 10 months and the world finacial system came close to collapsing. And Blue Jay attendance figures are down 17% this year from last year from 29k+ to 24k+, when in April last year the Jays looked like a more promising team. TV ad revenue is down, which will effect their next ad contract I would theorize.

There is little doubt in my mind the Jays are not well served tying up almost 1/7th of their payroll in Rios, and evidently no one else in the AL wanted to part with a prospect to take on the contract. And Ricciardi is likely pretty well versed in his fielding/hitting value, being a Moneyball guy, despite some horrific moves over the years.

Rios is not an awful player. he is pretty good, and yes, has generally been an excellent fielder. Even per fangraphs he has not earned that contract this year, and that treats the dollar value of each win over replacement as the same for each team, ignores that the economy of the world has suffered a sea change since last year in general, and that of the jays more specifically.

by wobatus on Aug 13, 2009 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions

That's one thing I've never fully understood

Are the dollar values of wins constant or do they change with the market based on what free agents are getting?

by Gina on Aug 13, 2009 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Also according to fangraphs he hasn't earned his contract this year

But in previous years he was worth way way more than what the extension was for. And WAR doesn’t factor in luck, bad or good, for batters the same way it does with pitchers, so his career low BABIP isn’t being considered, plus he’s only getting 5.9 this year and he’s already been worth 4.5 million so if he falls short I can’t imagine it will be by that much. And playing in the bandbox the white sox have I can’t imagine his offensive numbers won’t improve at least a little bit.

by Gina on Aug 13, 2009 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions

But the avg salary

Is 12 million. Back end loaded. He will not earn 12 million this year.

And sure, babip is partly luck, but partly may be measuring decline in line drives, increase in infieled flies, what have you. Sure enough, LD% rate down from 20.8 to 18.2%. IFF up from 7.9 to 12.1%. Yes, he was worth a lot in 2008, per fangraph’s methodology., which i know is the bible but I don’t think necessarily the be all and end all.

here is a good explanation of their dollar values methodology.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/win-values-explained-part-six

Yes, current year’s total salaries and value on free market for players (as opposed to the youngsters who are basically freebies). Note the progression in value for win above replacement from 2002 to 2008. And this was written i Jnauary 2009. An contract on here was signed either pre-housing bubble collapse or when its full effect had not yet been felt. And 2002-2008 is prime territory for expanison in credit fueling the economy and market.

Yes, his offense will improve in Chicago, but park effects would adjust the value.

Will he be worth 12 or 12.5 in 3 years? What effect will the market meltdown have on salaries over the next few years? Will economy recover a lot by then? Will he regress like he has last year or so in hitting (this year’s fielding regression may just be a fluke since, as someone pointed out above to me, it is more variable, but over a term of years pretty accurate)?

All i know is the Jays’ situation is a lot different than it was just 16 months ago, and since they couldn’t dump Wells, they dumped Rios. maybe some prospects for halladay wasn’t a bad idea.

by wobatus on Aug 13, 2009 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions

It's funny

but the yankee game the other day really illustrated Rios’s value to them, and/or lack thereof.

They call up Randy Ruiz, 31 year old career minor leaguer. And he homers as DH. Already has 2. But then Joe Inglett can’t steal a homer (maybe fan took it from him-not saying Rios woulda had it) from Posada over the cheap rightfield wall.

by wobatus on Aug 13, 2009 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Roberts' Problem

The trouble with Roberts is that his nickname sucks – BRob? I know the O’s are terrible this decade, but that is just lazy. They put that up on the jumbotron and everything. His agent should have negotiated a better nickname.

Grission and Husart - that is either the non-union Mexican equivelant of "Starsky and Hutch" or the key to winning the World Series.

by IanB in MD on Aug 13, 2009 8:48 AM EDT up reply actions

Bastard Outta Carolina

Since he was UNC I think and I liked that book.

by wobatus on Aug 13, 2009 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions

Nah he was only at UNC for one year

his dad was the head coach and was fired after his freshmen year so he transfered to South Carolina.

by Gina on Aug 13, 2009 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions

but

He was born in Durham and went to Chapel Hill High School.

by wobatus on Aug 13, 2009 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions

and

since both are Carolina’s I’ll stick with bstard outta carolina, although his mom and dad may be pissed.

by wobatus on Aug 13, 2009 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions

You know, ESPN put out a similar list like a month ago,

and again, no mets on the list. Granted, some of these are bad, but Ollie’s contract has got to be on one, or both, of these lists. Maybe I’m just biased.

Just know, if there's ever a riot at Citi Field and Oliver Perez was the starter, I started the riot.

by meigs1414 on Aug 12, 2009 11:30 PM EDT reply actions

I feel like a lot of mainstream media

thought the ollie contract made sense. it seems like everyone who isnt a mets fan remembers the ollie with the mid 90s fastball who flashed dominance. and not the two pitch low 90s/high 80s walk machine we constantly see.

by Gina on Aug 12, 2009 11:50 PM EDT up reply actions

Wow, I knew Wells' contract was bad

but 20+ million a year for 4 more years AND a full no-trade clause? I want some of whatever Riccardi was smoking when he came up with that one. Maybe Wells lobby him for the contract

"I reject your reality and substitute my own"
-Adam Savage

by blueandorange4life on Aug 13, 2009 2:45 AM EDT reply actions