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Last year, Eddie Bajek of Detroit Tigers Thoughts reverse engineered the rankings used by The Elias Sports Bureau used for classifying Free Agents in terms of draft pick compensation (Type A or B). He now provides the rankings to MLB Trade Rumors. For the current standings, see here.

So what are the Mets looking at? Here are the ranked players due a shot at Free Agency this offseason on the current Mets roster:


Billy Wagner - Type A
Score: 78.932

Amazingly, despite missing about a full season since Tommy John Surgery last year, Wagner has maintained his Type A status, and comfortably so. Being that his return seems imminent, he could present the Mets an interesting opportunity in the offseason. The rule that any arbitration offer to a player must be at least 80% of his previous year's salary does not stand for Free Agents, only players with 2-6 years of service time.

There really isn't much downside to offering Wagner arbitration. The $1 million buyout on his option is already in the bank. If you offer him arbitration, he can shop around, see if he can get a better offer and net you some draft picks, or he can come back on a one year deal, preferably in the $2-3 million range at most.


Carlos Delgado - Type B
Score: 65.000

What to do with Mr. Delgado? His recent medical setback means we probably won't get any kind of look at him before the offseason. But being that he's missed so much time, this doesn't necessarily hurt the value of an arbitration offer. His market value won't be very high. If he accepts, you're risking 20% of his accepted salary to get a look at him in the Spring, at which point you can release him if he's ineffective. If he's healthy, there's a good chance he'll be more than worth a fairly minimal salary, and the commitment would be minimal as well.

Brian Schneider - Type B Score: 64.082

Interesting Dilemma here. There is significant risk Brian would accept an arbitration offer. Being that he only would net one pick if he declined, its probably not worth the chance. But then again, it might be. Superficially, pairing Schneider with Josh Thole, another left handed catcher seems unwise. But one of Thole's specialties in the minors has been hammering left handed pitching. And wouldn't Schneider be a better choice to groom Thole defensively than Omir Santos?

Gary Sheffield - Type B Score: 58.71

While with some arbitration scenarios there seems to be little to lose, Sheffield is a case where there is little to gain. The likelihood that he signs with another team in the offseason is fairly low, and there's little chance he'll be an asset at whatever salary figure arbitration might bestow upon him. He was worth the six-figure gamble, but he's not worth more.

Fernando Tatis - N/A Score: 53.98

Tatis may not be ranked, but he's fairly close to the cutoff for 1B/OF, which currently sits with Ben Francisco at 56.77. Things are a bit trickier with Tatis than with Sheff should he sneak into Type B status. He actually is likely to play next year, and as a Type B, other teams don't have to risk their draft picks to court him. He's not someone I really want back, but he won't earn much money and can play multiple positions. Would I prefer Nick Evans for the bench? Yes please, but for the possibility of a draft pick, risking another year of Tatis isn't an awful idea.


J.J. Putz - N/A
Score: 52.933

Putz probably doesn't have much chance at working his way to Type B status at this point. He'd have to come back healthy quite soon and pitch very well. But if he did, his situation wouldn't be all that different from Wagner's. There wouldn't be much risk in making an arbitration offer. You either collect a draft pick or take a low risk, high reward gamble.

7 months ago Aaavatar_tiny Mark Himmelstein 147 comments 3 recs  | 

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How does the arbitration panel decide on the arbitration salary of free agents?

Wagner and Delgado spent a lot of time in the DL, how does that affect their arbitration salary?

by Michkin on Aug 13, 2009 3:37 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I think its just as relevant as it seems to the panel

I’m sure its a big consideration.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 13, 2009 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

great post, thanks

I agree with almost everything you say here, except for your reservations about going to arbitration with Schneider. That honestly seems like a no-lose situation to me: Thole or any other internal C option will need at least another year before anyone sane would take him as Plan A, while Santos is Santos and the trade and free-agent options are limited. A one-year deal on Schneider would be just great with me. Apart from that, everyone but Sheffield should pretty clearly be offered arbitration.

by anonymous on Aug 13, 2009 3:41 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Agreed

Omir is not even close to being a starting caliber C. I’d hesitate to even call him a quality backup. I’m not sure that Thole will be major league ready next season, but I could suffer through another year of Schneider and Santos as long as our other positions are upgraded.

by Steeeve on Aug 13, 2009 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, this makes sense

I just don’t see any way Schneider declines, so I have a hard time seeing him bringing in a draft pick.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 13, 2009 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's fun to shit on Schneider

but the fact is he’s a league average catcher against RHP if not a bit more. I would sign him for one more year and match him up with a LHP power hitting catcher like, I dont know, Ramon Castro. Then in ‘11 go with Thole and Castro then from ’13-’30 we have Zapata, put it in the books, cathcer situation resolved.

by Sokojoe on Aug 13, 2009 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

What about Mike Napoli?

What might it take for the Angels to give him up? He’s like Ramon Castro Ultra. He’s got two years of arbitration left. The Angels are really all about Mathis at this point (I know, I have Napoli in the AA fantasy league and its driven me nuts all year the way they only play him consistently when Vlad’s hurt and they need a DH). He’s always destroyed lefties too.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 13, 2009 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

:)

Nah, just the last few months. Gina owned the first half, but I caught her sometime in June/July. She’s back on my heels though. I actually really made some big surges when Napoli actually got to play everyday.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 14, 2009 12:14 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Mother fucking Neifi Zapata, yeah boy

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Aug 13, 2009 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Mother fucking Neifi Zapata, yeah boy

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Aug 13, 2009 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

So true

that you said it twice. Looking forward to seeing this kid, but don’t like him wearing Yankee hats in public.

by deadspy3 on Aug 14, 2009 2:25 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Please

thats +20 grission points, ask Mike Francessa.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Aug 14, 2009 3:13 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nelfi Zapata

Makes Francisco Pena look like Omir Santos. BAH-ZING!

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 14, 2009 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Aug 14, 2009 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Great film

I only found out after watching that the Anthony Quinn was Mexican

by deadspy3 on Aug 14, 2009 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

What makes you think Wagner would only receive a $2-3 MM salary next year if he accepted arbitration?

by T Pac on Aug 13, 2009 3:48 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

His option was $8 million

The Mets have a good case for declining the option and cutting it by more than 50%, considering Wagner’s age and recent surgery. He may ask for more, but he certainly won’t get that much on the open market either, he’d probably take less from a different team where he could at least compete for the closer’s gig.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 13, 2009 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah

But if he comes back with any kind of command and velo, there’s also a good chance a smaller market team will see a great opportunity to make a minimal investment and get a potential closer. Rays maybe? He definitely fits the Percival mold.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 13, 2009 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I can't believe no one has made this joke yet:

Hey Meddler, this should really be a FanPost.

"He's definitely mixing it into his repertoire. That's French for 'repertoire' " - Keith Hernandez

by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Aug 13, 2009 4:20 PM EDT via mobile reply actions   1 recs

Hah

I thought of that while I was writing it, but I was linking someone else’s work so I left it.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 13, 2009 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

LOL

I was thinking the same thing, but given Mark’s style, it makes sense. I’m going to guess that he just wanted to post the link and list each relevant Met, but got caught up in some intricate thoughts. I doubt Omar’s thought too much about this “paperwork”; he’s a big picture guy.

by All Shook Down on Aug 13, 2009 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hahaha

You guys know me so well.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 13, 2009 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Also

I think that “Should’ve Been a FanShot” needs to be added to the AA Memes

by mets81 on Aug 13, 2009 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

If

schneid takes less than he is already making by a good amount im fine with offerin him arby. Gado Putz and Wags i say are a definite yes but Tatis no thank you.

by MetsKnicksRutgers on Aug 13, 2009 4:25 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

"If he accepts, you're risking 20% of his accepted salary to get a look at him in the Spring, at which point you can release him if he's ineffective."

By then, you’ll have less time to manouver. The other 1B free agents might have signed, less options for trade and we might end up with our backup plan playing everday.

by Michkin on Aug 13, 2009 4:31 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Not necessarily true

If another opportunity for 1B comes along, you can just resign to cut Delgado at 20% of his salary and/or trade him for peanuts. His salary shouldn’t be too restrictive to prevent either of those options.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 13, 2009 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

None of these guys will be cheap.

When 1st year eligible players go to arbitration, their numbers are compared to the salaries of other 1st year eligible players. 2nd and 3rd year eligible players have their cases settled the same way. Guys who are eligible for free agency have their salaries determined by comparable players salaries set on the open market. Keep in mind that Darrin Oliver was asking for over 4 million last year (he and the angels settled for 3.7 million, which was the midway point in the figures they submitted).

"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green

by Schmidtxc on Aug 13, 2009 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

This is my main concern

How often do free agents get a huge cut in their paycheck when they go to arbitration? Delgado is making 12m, Wagner 10. It would be worth it if they received 50%-75% less, but that doesn’t seem likely.

by Michkin on Aug 13, 2009 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Why?

They’re both unique cases, I think you guys are confusing arbitration processes. 1st years are only compared to 1st years when you’re talking about guys who aren’t eligible for FA. Otherwise, I think it has more to do with Elias’ rankings and the perceived market value. Oliver had a great year before he got that deal, and had been reasonably consistent for the past few years. For an upper echelon, non-closer RP, 3.7 mil for a year seems like the right market value.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 13, 2009 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Past performance, previous salary and comparable salaries set on the open market
# Criteria the panel may consider include the player’s contribution to the club in terms of performance and leadership, the club’s record and attendance, "special accomplishments", the salaries of comparable players in his service-time class and, for players with less than 5 years of service, the class one year ahead of him. The parties may not refer to team finances, previous offers made during negotiations, comments from the press or salaries in other sports or occupations.

Cot

I don’t see them getting 50% to 75% less than they make now.
Wagner has always played as a closer. I don’t think the arbitration panel will value him as a set up man.

by Michkin on Aug 13, 2009 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It is a risk

But the other part is that its a risk for Wagner to go to a hearing too. Under unique circumstances, if he’s not getting more than $3 million offers from other clubs, its a risk for him to let it get that far as well, instead of just negotiating directly with the club.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 13, 2009 6:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The Mets don't have access to the offers Wags recieves, so wouldn't be able to use them in an arbitration hearing.

Wags has to decide on arbitration if its offered in the first week of december…if he accepts he can’t negotiate with other teams. Most teams wait until after this date to negotiate with type a or b guys to possibly avooid giving up a draft pick.

"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green

by Schmidtxc on Aug 13, 2009 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Doesn't really matter

Wags can go to other teams, say the Mets have offered him arbitration and are willing to negotiate around $2.5 million, and offer them a chance to do better. Even if clubs don’t instantly offer him that money, some might tell him he’s under consideration and there’s a closer vacancy and blah, blah, blah. If the interest is limited, and $2.5 mil to be a setup man seems like his best option, he can go back to the Mets, accept, and then essentially negotiate off of that number. Even if it goes to a hearing, and the Mets are offering $3 million, it’d be a pretty huge risk for him to ask for much more. He just missed a full season, he’s 36, and he’s not accepting arbitration as a closer, and there’s no way he’ll be able to convince a panel that he did. If he tries to ask for $5-6 million, there’s a great chance that even if his case is strong, the arbitration panel will just think its too much, and default to the Mets more reasonable $3 million offer.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 13, 2009 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Injuries do not matter...

There is not one example of an injury costing a player a pay cut in arbitration. Not one…EVER. It has never happened. It doesn’t matter if it should be taken into account, it won’t. The Mets have the option to not offer arbitration if they are concerned about injury. You keep coming back to that as a reason Wags will lose signifigant money…why can’t you find a single example of an instance where this has happened? Whether or not the system should take that into account is irrelevent…IT DOESN’T.

"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green

by Schmidtxc on Aug 13, 2009 7:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't think you've provided sufficient evidence for this claim
Injuries do not matter…

Just because there isn’t confirmation that doesn’t yield contradiction. If you want to prove this claim, you have to give an example of a player who got injured but was treated as a player who didn’t get injured. I mean, you emphasize the term “EVER” but FA only started 35 years ago. In 35 years, how many cases where there were players fresh of TJ rehab were even considered for Free Agent Arbitration? I honestly don’t know, but that’s really the question to ask here.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 13, 2009 7:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Gonzalez this season got a raise as a closer after TJ

that work?

"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green

by Schmidtxc on Aug 13, 2009 7:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

3 Million plus...not yet a free agent

"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green

by Schmidtxc on Aug 13, 2009 7:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah but he was what

27 years old?

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 13, 2009 7:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't think they takthat into account when determining the value of a 1 year contract

"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green

by Schmidtxc on Aug 13, 2009 7:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think you're seriously underestimating the arbitration process

I mean, I know its archaic, but its not built to be unfair. The whole point is that players get paid what they deserve if they can’t agree with the team on a figure. Its not that they should get paid for their work two years ago. I’m sure Wags’ agent would use all the points you are to build a relevant case, but if he asks for $6-8 million, a panel’s just not going to give that to him. If he asks for $4.5 million, maybe, but if you’re not talking about a healthy (ish) player in his prime, and you’re talking about an older player who has thrown less than 20 innings in the last 365 days, an arb panel isn’t going to treat these facts as non-existent.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 13, 2009 7:29 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Every example of arbitration points to the opposite.

It’s like assuming Francoeur is going to suddenly become a good hitter, even though every stat we have available says otherwise. If you could find even ONE EXAMPLE to support your idea it would help.

"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green

by Schmidtxc on Aug 13, 2009 7:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah but at least you can make a case

That Francoeur will be exactly what he was last year or better. He’s not an attrition/injury/age risk. So demanding a similar base salary makes sense, he should get aid the same amount for the same level of work.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 13, 2009 7:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

And that's the same case Wags would make

but based on his 2007 season. I’ve cited numerous examples where injuries like this haven’t been taken into account…can you find a case of the opposite?

"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green

by Schmidtxc on Aug 13, 2009 7:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I can't find any examples

Of a 35+ year old player former dominant closer coming off TJS, pitching for a month, and then going to FA, period. You can’t just throw that evidence away because there are no previous examples of it happening.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 13, 2009 8:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah but even though I imagine age will play a factor

I doubt it will play enough of a factor that he’ll get as massive as a cut as some seem to be expecting. He probably wouldn’t get a raise like Gonzales but even if he’s getting 4-5 million considering we were desperate to cut Castro’s 2.6 million and couldn’t afford to offer Abreu 5 million don’t you think that 4-5 million might be a bit of a burden?

by Gina on Aug 13, 2009 7:33 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That may be true

And that’s where the risk probably is. But while Billy may be obnoxious, I don’t think he’s out to screw anyone over. I’m sure the Mets will ask him what he’s looking for this offseason. If he says he wants the most money he can get, and is expecting around $5 million, offering him arb becomes tougher. If he says he wants to pitch again, would love to be a closer, and just wants some security money, $3 to set up, less to close seems like where he should land, and the least likely outcome seems to be that they’d actually go to a hearing anyway.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 13, 2009 7:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

There hasn't been a case since the strike where a free agent has accepted arbitration and had the result give them a pay cut.

Several have settled for lower salaries prior to a hearing, but no arbitration panel has cut a possible free agents pay.

"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green

by Schmidtxc on Aug 13, 2009 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's because those cases rarely go to arbitration

Especially for players who know they are in special circumstances, such as recently injured players.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 13, 2009 6:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Still, since 1994 there is not a single case where a free agent has had to take a pay cut in arbitration, injury or otherwise.

You can bet that if the Mets feel he’s healthy enough to offer arbitration too, that fact will hurt their case to reduce his pay.

"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green

by Schmidtxc on Aug 13, 2009 7:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

How many cases have there been where a player returned from TJ surgery

After missing a year and pitching for a month, period? Its still a risk for a player to ask for a high number. If they go too high above the club’s offer, it could cost them millions, whereas if they negotiate with the club, they may not get as much, but they’re not taking as much of a risk.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 13, 2009 7:11 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

These guys weren't all Tommy John...but they all missed major time due to injury prior to their last arb hearing.

Mark Prior got a raise. Rich Harden got a raise. Mike Gonzalez got a raise. All of those were settled out of arbitration, but all the figures submitted by the teams were for at worst the same pay as the season before. There’s some examples off the top of my head, I’m sure if I dig I can find a ton more. Good luck finding guys that took pay cuts.

"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green

by Schmidtxc on Aug 13, 2009 7:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

How much might Putz get in arbitration?

His option is for 8.6 isn’t it, obviously I don’t think he’ll get that but is it high enough that we might not want to offer it?

by Gina on Aug 13, 2009 4:53 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I'd guess he'd get 7 or 8 million.

Arbitration seems to credit relievers for saves pretty highly, and they don’t seem to punish players for injuries very much. Remember, his salary will be determined by comparable players on the free agent market.

"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green

by Schmidtxc on Aug 13, 2009 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Just as a comparable, K-rod got 12.5 million in his last year of arbitration.

"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green

by Schmidtxc on Aug 13, 2009 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Except K-Rod wasn't injured for most of the year

And had an awesome, “record setting” season. Putz hasn’t been a dominant closer for two years and is coming off of surgery. The arbitration panel won’t ignore that.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 13, 2009 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That was the year before his record setting season,

and I can’t find any examples of players who’ve had they’re pay cut due to injury.

"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green

by Schmidtxc on Aug 13, 2009 5:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

But I don't understand why that year would apply

He wasn’t elligible for Free Agency. That was the market rate for good closers at the time, which for his final arb year makes sense. All that matters is how an arbitration panel would view the situations of Wagner and Delgado. They’re not just going to ignore the fact that neither has played at all in the last few years, or the fact that either would have to take significantly reduced pay on the open market as well.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 13, 2009 6:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He'd likely have gotten MORE if he was a free agent.

It’s a good comparable in that there was a hearing, he was a closer, and he was only a year from free agency. If the team is willing to offer arbitration to the player, it’s a safe assumption that they feel the players injuries are no longer an issue. Odds are that both of those players would get a judgement based on their 2007 seasons.

"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green

by Schmidtxc on Aug 13, 2009 7:05 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah but Wagner isn't a closer anymore

He’s a 36 year old veteran returning from Tommy John Surgery. Its a completely different situation, and just as an offer of arbitration would be an admission of quality on behalf of the Mets, an acceptance by Wags would be an admission that he’s accepted a role less than “closer,” which would also be evidence a panel couldn’t ignore.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 13, 2009 7:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

When is the last time Wags wasn't a closer?

The arbitration panel will look at his most recent seasons, in which he closed for the Mets.

"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green

by Schmidtxc on Aug 13, 2009 7:23 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He won't be one this year

And by accepting arbitration from the Mets, he’d be admitting that he accepts that he wouldn’t be one next year.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 13, 2009 7:31 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's ridiculous.

I can’t think even you believe an arbitrator would buy that.

"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green

by Schmidtxc on Aug 13, 2009 7:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

How so?

Its no more or less ridiculous than your argument that an offer of arbitration on the Mets part would be an indication that they thought he was healthy. The Mets have a closer. If Billy wants to pitch for the Mets, he won’t be a closer. If he accepts arbitration, he’s accepting a role as less than a closer.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 13, 2009 7:43 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I keep offering examples of injured players who got raises with this process.

You’ve failed to provide a single example of the opposite, although in your defense it’s yet to happen. I don’t get why you think the arbitration process that has been in place for years will all of a sudden change this off-season.

"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green

by Schmidtxc on Aug 13, 2009 7:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Because I'm not suggesting anything is changing

Just that this particular scenario hasn’t happened in this exact way in the 35 years that free agency as existed, which is also coincidentally right around the same time Billy Wagner was born.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 13, 2009 7:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Injury aside,

Wagner was performing in 2007 at roughly the same level that earned him his 10 million dollar plus contract.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wagnebi02.shtml?redir

He signed at Market Value, meaning that is probably a good starting point on a 1 year deal. Eric Gagne’s contract could probably be used as a good example of that. If the Mets feel he’s healthy enough to offer arb to, have his performances really dropped to the point where he’s worth less than Kerry Wood or Trevor Hoffman? How about Francisco Cordero or Huston Street?

"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green

by Schmidtxc on Aug 13, 2009 7:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Todd Jones was Detroit's closer for the majrity of his career (Rodney's)

Rodney was paid like a setup man, and is a poor comparable.

"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green

by Schmidtxc on Aug 13, 2009 7:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Arbitration generally awards closers with bigger contracts.

"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green

by Schmidtxc on Aug 13, 2009 8:01 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

For 2.5m, I'd rather have Wagner then MacDougal or Rodney

It’s just a bit more than what Feliciano will get.

by Michkin on Aug 13, 2009 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's not the point.

the point is that Wags will get ALOT more than 2.5 million if we offer him arbitration.

"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green

by Schmidtxc on Aug 13, 2009 8:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

What do you think he'd get on the open market?

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 13, 2009 8:08 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Open market x arbitration

To point one difference: in the open market, they can negotiate a base salary + tons of incentive. In arbitration, it’s just 1 year salary.

by Michkin on Aug 13, 2009 8:11 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Trevor Hoffman and Kerry Wood aren't good examples

The Padres were also trying to sell off half of the rest of their team, their financial troubles were well documented, and just about everyone was shocked the Cubs didn’t offer arb to Wood.

Gagne is a fair example, and he did take a pay cut in 2007. He dropped from $10 mil to $6 mil. But the market was also a different place then. We were in a time when mediocre closers got 4 year $60 million deals. That’s not where we are right now.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 13, 2009 7:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hoffman and Wood's contracts were settled on the open market

And give goo insight into what Wags could expect

"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green

by Schmidtxc on Aug 13, 2009 8:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not really

They both only meet one of the two important conditions: Age and Health. Wood was actually coming off of a strong, healthy season and Hoffman, despite being the all time Saves leader, took a $1.5 million yearly salary cut, and settled for a one year deal.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 13, 2009 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

You keep harping on the fact that health will make an impact

even though every example points to the opposite. If health was a concern, the Mets would not offer arb.

"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green

by Schmidtxc on Aug 13, 2009 8:08 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

What examples point to the opposite?

You’ve provided evidence that there are no examples that directly support my claim, but provided no evidence that contradicts it. You haven’t provided an example of an older, veteran player, coming off arm surgery, period, let alone ones who have gotten a 0% cut, a 25% cut, a 50% cut, or a 75% cut.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 13, 2009 8:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I've listed plenty of injured pitchers (Wood, Harden, Prior, Gonzalez) who've gotten raises through the arb process following an injury.

You can’t provide a single example of the opposite (because it doesn’t exist) I feel like I’m talking to a wall. If you can find a single example of a guy arbitration has given a 25% pay cut due to injury you’d still have a hard time proving Wags will take a 75% pay cut. You can’t even find that, you just keep saying it should happen. 3 million might be fair for Wags, but if the Mets offer him arbitration, he’ll make alot more than that (as history tells us).

"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green

by Schmidtxc on Aug 13, 2009 8:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Because there are signficant exceptions in each of those cases

Okay, I’ll concede 75% is an exaggeration, but that wasn’t what I said in the first place. All I said was they should offer no more than $2-3 million. Then the risk you run is that he’ll probably earn a bit more in arbitration, but I think you’re putting way to much emphasis on the technical side of the process. This won’t be treated like any typical arbitration case, there’s plenty of reason to call it something completely different than anything that’s come before, and an arbitration panel isn’t just going to throw that out.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 13, 2009 8:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's too bad we'll probably never see this play out,

as it would probably be a good baromater for future instances.

"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green

by Schmidtxc on Aug 13, 2009 8:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

No way the Mets should give Wags an offer.

I doubt anyone would give up a first rounder to sign him coming off of Tommy John. Maybe if he comes back and pitches lights out, but I doubt he’d get a better offer on the market than what he’d likely get in arbitration.

"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green

by Schmidtxc on Aug 13, 2009 5:01 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

But

He might wind up on a small market team looking for veteran competition at closer. I could see Wags taking less money for an opportunity to earn a closer’s job.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 13, 2009 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

But I can't see thast small market team giving him an offer, knowing it will cost them a draft pick.

"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green

by Schmidtxc on Aug 13, 2009 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

If they have a chance at getting an upper level closer

For $1-1.5 million, I think most small market teams would jump at the chance to trade a draft pick for spending at least twice that.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 13, 2009 6:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

If that's all thats out there for him,

there’s no chance he’d accept arbitration.

"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green

by Schmidtxc on Aug 13, 2009 7:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

You mean there's no chance he wouldn't accept?

I’m not so sure. Billy doesn’t seem to be having money problems. He has $1 mil in the bank from the buyout. He wants those closer records, he wants the HOF. If there’s a chance that he could re-earn himself a spot as a closer, there’s a good chance that would be more important than money.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 13, 2009 7:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

If he is signing for 1m, make him the closer, trade bb-Rod and Putz

If he gets hurt, Socks! can finally get his 3 Cy Young as our closer.

by Michkin on Aug 13, 2009 7:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well Putz is sort of under the same issue

We don’t know what number he’d get in arbitration and whether we should even offer it and I’m not sure there’s much of a market for K-rod with the contract we gave him and teams trying to cut payroll left and right.

by Gina on Aug 13, 2009 7:23 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I thought the Socks! mention would hint that I was joking

If Putz is not projected to be a Type A or B, why offer him arbitration? Refuse his option and resign him for a lower value.

by Michkin on Aug 13, 2009 7:27 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The other issue is that most small market teams won't give up a premium draft pick for an old closer.

How many of those teams are a closer away from being a legit world series contender? The rays are the only match I can think of, and I highly doubt they’d change the way they operate when there will be plenty of closing options out there that don’t cost a 1st rounder.

"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green

by Schmidtxc on Aug 13, 2009 7:21 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not all teams

would be giving up a first rounder. The Rays would, but small market teams in the bottom half of the league won’t.

by Mount17 on Aug 13, 2009 7:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Why would they be after a 38 year old closer that costs them any pick?

"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green

by Schmidtxc on Aug 13, 2009 7:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

We would have to ask someone who really works with arbitration

to get an idea how it is really like, what is more likely to happen.
It’s got to a point where there is just a difference in perception (1m, 3m, 5m, 10m?), or what we imagine it’s like.

by Michkin on Aug 13, 2009 7:23 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

This will give you an idea of what teams offer to certain players.

You’ll see they get alot higher as player accrue service time.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/01/arbitration-fig.html

"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green

by Schmidtxc on Aug 13, 2009 7:27 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Are any of those even FA Arb though?

Or even players who aren’t in the 25-32 age range?

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 13, 2009 7:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

And the Reds' offered him a slight cut

Despite coming off a very effective, healthy season.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 13, 2009 7:42 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

But he ended up getting a raise

When they settled instead of going to arbitration

by Gina on Aug 13, 2009 7:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

And it was probably fair market value

"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green

by Schmidtxc on Aug 13, 2009 7:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

None of the cases last year went to arbitration involving free agents...

But every one who accepted and reached a contract agreement got a raise.

"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green

by Schmidtxc on Aug 13, 2009 7:43 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Were any of them?

Older than 35 and coming back from major arm surgery?

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 13, 2009 7:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The age will be irrelevant for a one year contract.

If it was a long term deal, age would be relevant.

"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green

by Schmidtxc on Aug 13, 2009 7:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Of course age is relevant

Its not just about length of contract. A 36 year old fresh off TJ surgery is much more likely to be prone to a variety of deficiencies that a 26 year old wouldn’t be nearly so prone to.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 13, 2009 7:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

75% pay cut relevent?

I think not

"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green

by Schmidtxc on Aug 13, 2009 7:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Coming off a year that included no production

Aside from a month-long audition, yes. If he hits the market, he will get a 75% pay cut. The point of arbitration isn’t that a player should get paid more than their market value.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 13, 2009 7:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The point with free agents is to award some sort of compensation to teams that can't afford to keep their best players.

Not to give teams leverage against players.

"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green

by Schmidtxc on Aug 13, 2009 7:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

But if thats the market value

How is that giving a team leverage?

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 13, 2009 8:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Market value for elite closers is in the 8-10 million range.

"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green

by Schmidtxc on Aug 13, 2009 8:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's not what he is though

Being a year removed from being an elite closer and having gone through a significant arm surgery precludes the tag “current elite closer”. No amount of technicality about what he was when he last pitched or lack of precedent for such a case is going to convince an arbitration panel that these are relevant factors.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 13, 2009 8:11 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Put better

If Wags was on the open market, what would you as a fair minded GM be willing to offer him?

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 13, 2009 8:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He'd have a legit argument that someone with his skillset is worth 8-10 million dollars.

"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green

by Schmidtxc on Aug 13, 2009 8:15 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Man, I wish I was a baseball player

I’d have my agent talk to you. He doesn’t have an established “skillset”. Lets see him pitch before we start thinking about eight figures.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 13, 2009 8:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

His career numbers are very good.

If the Mets feel he’s healthy enough to offer arbitration too, it’s a good bet that Wagner’s agent will use it.

"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green

by Schmidtxc on Aug 13, 2009 8:29 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Too many variables until he resigns

How he pitches in 2009, economy recovery, teams finances and ticket selling, demand for closers in 2010 …

I don’t want anyone coming back to this thread after spring training, pointing fingers or saying “I told you so”.

by Michkin on Aug 13, 2009 8:30 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

No, no

We’re not so petty, I’m enjoying a spirited debate, not trying to be righter than anyone else.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 13, 2009 8:33 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed...same here

"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green

by Schmidtxc on Aug 13, 2009 8:40 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Keep in mind that Kyle Farnsworth got 4.5mill last offseason

Also look at the Dotel contract, that Linebrink contract, and the Eric Gagne contract with the Brewers. Wags will be pointing to all of these, and showing his better numbers to a panel.

"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green

by Schmidtxc on Aug 13, 2009 8:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It would be interesting

to see Wagner or Putz accept arbitration, and then try not to complain about being a set-up man and not a closer.

by Mount17 on Aug 13, 2009 5:15 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

well if both came back

and were effective, would you trade BB-Rod?
Or, even before they were effective, would you trade BB-Rod

"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"

by firejerrynow on Aug 13, 2009 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

that would require someone willing to take him

With his option, that’s 3 years of $10 million plus for a shaky closer. Yes he had the 62 save season, but he has been inconsistent at times this year, to say nothing of his blown saves some of which were spectacularly bad or ill timed.

I think if we get a healthy wags and Putz then definitely shop him around. Even just Wags, if he’s good down the stretch it might be worth seeing what he has left and what he might be able to do for us next season. Without that no, I wouldn’t. There aren’t any really great closers entering FA this season to the best of my knowledge, except maybe Rafael Soriano but I don’t see the Braves letting him walk. Even inconsistent Frankie is better than nothing, and I don’t know if any of our internal options would be good enough for the closer job

"I reject your reality and substitute my own"
-Adam Savage

by blueandorange4life on Aug 13, 2009 10:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

There's quite a few good ones

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/12/2010-mlb-free-a.html

"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green

by Schmidtxc on Aug 13, 2009 10:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

which are upsides?

Out of curiosity. I’m admittedly not as knowledgeable about good closers as I should be and I hadn’t checked that list when I made my last comment

"I reject your reality and substitute my own"
-Adam Savage

by blueandorange4life on Aug 14, 2009 12:04 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wagner and Socks

still gotta kiss and make up, right?

by TheBigStapler on Aug 14, 2009 10:51 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Yep.

A kiss from Socks!’s fist.

"He's definitely mixing it into his repertoire. That's French for 'repertoire' " - Keith Hernandez

by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Aug 14, 2009 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

This

would rescue the season. A beaning shoot-out with no helmets. I reckon Socks! would triumph.

by deadspy3 on Aug 14, 2009 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not sure

Wagner may not be throwing as hard as he used to prior to surgery but he has a quicker delivery and is a smaller target.

by TheBigStapler on Aug 14, 2009 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

True

but he could have one of those frustrating four-ball walk nights…

by deadspy3 on Aug 15, 2009 3:28 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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