I Hope He's Livan Soon: Giants 10, Mets 1
by Eric Simon on Aug 18, 2009 12:37 AM EDT
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PrintBeing ten-plus games out in mid-August is bad enough, but having to suffer through games like tonight's is borderline criminal, with scant reason to even tune in at all. The Pirates recently sold off almost every recognizable name on their big league roster, and their short-term outlook is moribund to say the least, but they do have some young ballplayers who might reasonably contribute to the next decent team in Pittsburgh. These Mets don't even have that on most days. Only Daniel Murphy and Jeff Francoeur have any real chance to be better in a year or two than they are now, and I can't in good conscience recommend either of those bets. Those two and Luis Castillo are the only regulars who are even likely to be with the team next year. So I ask: what are we rooting for anymore?
Francoeur, Fernando Tatis, and Brian Schneider saw 8, 11, and 9 pitches tonight, respectively. That's 28 pitches in twelve at-bats. Is it any surprise that their respective on-base percentages are .296, .306 and .280? At .320, Anderson Hernandez had the fourth-best on-base percentage in the starting lineup. Fourth!
Livan Hernandez was pretty awful again, slogging through 5.1 innings while allowing six runs, eleven hits (five for extra bases), and one intentional walk. He did strike out a batter, but it was opposing pitcher Joe Martinez. I'd say Hernandez's days are numbered, but I would've thought that three weeks ago, too, and we're still here suffering through lousy start after lousy start.
Rosters expand in two weeks, but there aren't too many exciting options at Triple-A Buffalo. Nick Evans should be up with the big club already, playing every day in an outfield corner, first base, wherever. Ike Davis, maybe? Reese Havens? I suspect we may actually see Ruben Tejada, especially now that Alex Cora is gone for the season.
The Braves come to town tomorrow as Oliver Perez takes on Derek Lowe.
Haiku by Howard Megdal
Sullivan's dropped fly
Tribute to fallen Beltran
Symbolized whole game
Swag Contest
Swag contest results can be found here and the next game's swag form already available. You can read more about the swag contest here.
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* Traditional Recap
* Boxscore
* Amazin' Avenue Gamethread
* McCovey Chronicles Gamethread
Win Probability Added
Big winners: Gary Sheffield, +16.4% WPA, Anderson Hernandez, +2.4% WPA
Big losers: Livan Hernandez, -26.6% WPA, Daniel Murphy, -16.2% WPA
Teh aw3s0mest play: Sheffield RBI single in third, +11.2% WPA
Teh sux0rest play: Sandoval RBI double in third, -12.6% WPA
Total pitcher WPA: -27.3% WPA
Total batter WPA: -22.7% WPA
GWRBI!: Aaron Rowand
Game Thread Roll Call
Nice job by Jadden Hopkins; his effort in the game thread embiggens us all.
| Num | Name | # of Posts |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jadden Hopkins | 65 |
| 2 | KeithsMoustache | 53 |
| 3 | fxcarden | 48 |
| 4 | Michkin | 34 |
| 5 | blueandorange4life | 25 |
| 6 | MetsKnicksRutgers | 24 |
| 7 | metsguy234 | 22 |
| 8 | Chickendirt | 9 |
| 9 | clip | 9 |
| 10 | aparkermarshall | 8 |
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Livan Hernandez tonight
And the utter irony of Lowe vs Ollie tomorrow.
Criminal is right.
I am completely thrilled
to have missed the entire game and been drunk with some friends on a Monday night. It’s really the only way to deal with the rest of the season. I can’t fathom a single reason to watch the Mets from here on out.
On a completely unrelated note who’s, uh, got some discount Citi Field tickets I can grab?
"He's definitely mixing it into his repertoire. That's French for 'repertoire' " - Keith Hernandez
by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Aug 18, 2009 12:58 AM EDT reply actions
So who is there to start?
Livan sucks, and i guess Figgy is better but it’s hard to get excited about him, I know there’s not a lot to get excited about anyway. I guess we can hope Holt puts it back together and maybe give him some September starts? Maybe Tobi Stoner just for fun as a guy who’s been decent in AA/AAA this year.
Why start Holts service time now, he's having a tough time in AA?
It makes no sense to rush him to the majors.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Aug 18, 2009 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions
There has to be someone to start over Livan
The team has a responsibility to not purposely throw games, which is what a Livan start is. Start Stokes if you have to.
I'm not disagreeing that Livan sucks,
I just don’t think rushing a top prospect and possibly stunting his development is worth getting rid of Livan for the rest of this season. I doubt Stokes is stretched out enough to start anyway, and pulling one of the few decent pitchers out of the bullpen just creates another hole. The only realistic options at this point are Figgy and Broadway, and I’d personally like to see Broadway.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Aug 18, 2009 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions
I went to the game tonight
The atrocity on the field, combined with douchebag Yankee fans blabbing the entire time made for a great night….
Don't worry
Brett Tomko shut them down
by Jadden Hopkins on Aug 18, 2009 8:39 AM EDT up reply actions
I haven't been coming around.
But I have been watching. Don’t have the energy to type how sad and angry I am at how this season has gone.
I’m actually going to New York to go to Citi Field at the beginning of October. I figure tickets will still be available.
Sigh…
"If there was ever a man dying inside, it must be Jerry Manuel" - Vin Scully
It's like the hope has been systematically drawn out
like gall stones.
"Those who fear disorder more than injustice inevitably produce more of both." -- Rev. William Coffin
Reminds me of
the last seen in Braveheart. Dubs is layed out getting gutted and screaming, “FREEDOM!”
PLEASE END IT
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
These are days that I'm glad I don't write a blog
That the good people of AA continue to post several times a day is commendable.
by HotChipWillBreakYourLegs on Aug 18, 2009 11:31 AM EDT reply actions
The dilemma
is starting the clock on guys like Thole and Davis versus the fact that at least they would be interesting to watch and are probably better options than what we have here. I think Thole makes the team next year anyway, so starting the clock on him is not that huge a deal.
Thole has to go on the 40 man, anyway
I’d absolutely keep Davis and Tejada down — it’d be a terrible mistake to start the clock on those two.
I agree...
All of the Binghamton kids need more time…no need to rush them now. Thole needs to go on the 40 man, but I’d doubt he’s ready defensively. Keep him down where he can catch every day, he’s probably not going to be better than Schnieder right now anyway.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Aug 18, 2009 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Thole
What’s wrong with a September callup, though, and a promise of solid playing time? The B-Mets’ (and Buffalo’s) season ends September 7, anyway.
I have serious worries about that.
The way the Mets front office works, it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see him hit .270 in the month of September and be Plan A at catcher next season. Having a pairing of Thole and Santos for next season reminds me an awful lot of the Murphy situation. I really don’t like having Omir as our number 1 next season, and if we commit to Thole this early it’s a very real possibility. I just don’t have any faith in our front office at the moment, and I worry about the consequences of that decision.
I’d much rather the Mets send him to the AFL, along with F!, and let them play against MLB ready prospects for a month. If the Mets would stop rushing their prospects, it would benefit the whole organization. Having guys who are ready to step in in AAA would have made this a much better season. If the Mets can resist bringing all the kids up early and let them actually advance to AAA, the rest of the farm system can fall into place behind it.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Aug 18, 2009 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Very few organizations still bring their top prospects through AAA
It’s pretty much AA to the majors, now, for those guys.
Good point
and Thole has been in the minors since 2005. It’s not like he hasn’t had seasoning. I really hope Santos is not in the plans for ’09.
He wasn't a catcher in 2005, 2006, or 2007.
His time in the minor’s really doesn’t mean as much due to that.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Aug 18, 2009 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Teams like the Braves, Mets, and Brewers tend to do that.
That never happens with teams like the Red Sox, Rays, and Twins (who happen to be the organizations I’d be modeling ours after). When those teams promote their prospects from AAA, they’re generally ready to play.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Aug 18, 2009 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Thole
turns 23 in October, must be added to the 40 man, and tore up AA. There’s absolutely nothing wrong (and a lot right) about giving him a Sept. cup of coffee. He can still go to the AFL.
Offensively, he was great.
He needs work on his defense still, and working in St. Lucie before playing in the AFL will be much better for him in the long term than watching the Mets from the bench. A cup of coffee in the majors is fine, but it likely means that he wouldn’t be in the AFL (players report two weeks before the end of the ML season).
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Aug 18, 2009 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Do you understand that Thole ML service time doesn't start when he is added to the 40-man roster?
His arbitration clock begins as he spends time in the Majors, and a September call up means that next year uses an option year.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Aug 18, 2009 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions
thanks for the lesson, bucko
Of course I know that — I’m saying he’s ready. All reports are that his D is solid now, and our catching is a vortex of suck. We’re not really running the risk of a SSS mirage, a la Santos. If he can hang for a month, I’m perfectly happy to give him a share of the job next year. What’s your proposal?
You sound like an ass with that tone (“Do you understand…?”), fyi.
My proposal is to let the kids develop in the minors.
Good organizations like the Red Sox, Rays, and Twins let their kids play in the minors not until they’re capable of cracking a roster, but until they force their way on to the roster. Shitty run organizations like the Mets force their players to make the jump as early as possible. When teams let the kids stay in the minors, it allows the team to have cost controlled players through the primes of their careers. Bringing guys up at 22 and 23 years old means that those players will likely reach free agency in the prime of their career. Some players performances force you to make that move, but I’d hardly rate Thole as one of those guys. He’s having a very nice year this year, but 399 plate appearances at AA hardly makes him a top prospect. As far as his defense, there have been plenty of reports that say its coming along nicely, but I haven’t heard one yet that says he could step into the majors today. If you’ve seen that, I’d love to know where.
My question of your understanding had nothing to do with trying to belittle you. You keep referring to the fact that he needs to be added to the 40 man this winter as reason to bring him up now. The way you kept referring to that made me wonder if you thought his arbitration clock began with his addition to the 40 man.
As for giving him a share of the job next year, I really think it’s an awful idea. By doing that, the Mets AAA options in case of injury would be guys like Robinson Cancel, and there is a very good chance Thole will struggle. Why not sign a stopgap and let Thole be Plan B in AAA, and actually make him force the Mets hand with his performance. That’s how good organizations handle their good but not great prospects. Giving him the starting gig next year only continues the depth issues of this franchise, where starting him at AAA actually adds depth. If we really thought he’d be a ML star next season, then there wouldn’t be an issue with brining him up. Bringing him up to be passable, however, just weakens the overall strength of the system.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Aug 18, 2009 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions
the Twins, really?
They’ve rushed a ton of guys — and have some pretty terrible organizational philosophies to boot. So have the Red Sox and Rays, to a lesser extent.
I think you’re a little off-base, though — what the Mets do a terrible job of is knowing when to use their better-than-replacement-level organizational guys vs. wasting a ton of money and time on “stopgaps.” It’s why Niese languished in AAA, for example, and we spent a combined $5 mil or so on Redding and Livan. What the Red Sox and Rays have are good, or great, major leaguers blocking their prospects — the Mets have Omir Santos. If Thole can approximate a league-average catcher, he’s extraordinarily valuable to us now (meaning 2010), rather than later.
I disagree with that completely.
The Mets use their stopgap players all the time…they trade them for aging stars and get them out of the organization, forcing them to go the free agent route. By signing stopgaps for a season or two, the Mets would allow the prospects we have to work their way up in the minors. Doing that while actually holding on to our prospects would actually build up organizational depth and allow the Mets to stop making so many of those signings ( which the Red Sox did very nicely in 2006 and 2007, and look at where their farm system is now).
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Aug 18, 2009 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions
And the twins rarely rush prospects
They’re one of the most conservative organizations in the majors.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Aug 18, 2009 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not clear at all on what you think is "rushing" and who you'd call a "stopgap"
Gomez, Young, Kubel, Casilla, Morneau all came up at age < 23. Gomez and Young accrued MLB experience with other orgs, but the Twins kept them up, when they clearly weren’t able to handle major league pitching.
Pedroia, Ellsbury, Buchholz all came up at or before age 23. Pedroia was a Sept. callup in ’06, and Ellsbury the following year. Buchholz has been shuttled back and forth a few times since his first callup — was he rushed?
I’ll obviously grant you that Thole isn’t on or even close to the same level (prospect rating-wise) as many of these guys. But to me, that only makes the control issue six years down the line less crucial.
I don’t want to hand Thole a job — but I’m ready to give him the chance to earn one.
I was referring to the twins when Terry Ryan was GM...
Before Casilla, Gomez, and Young were rushed up. That’s a big reason the twins have been able to be as competitive as they have been with the payroll they have.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Aug 18, 2009 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions
As for the Sox guys being rushed,
They were all called up to fill a need, and none were handed a job. The Sox signed Cora to compete with Pedroia, traded for Crisp when Ellsbury was almost ready, and have continued to sign rotation depth despite having Bucholtz. They don’t give these guys a look and count them as plan A, they continue to add stopgaps in case there prospects aren’t ready. Both of the position guys already played a high level defense in the minors which would also be a plus if their bat didn’t translate.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Aug 18, 2009 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Cora, Crisp, Smoltz, and Penny
Really — those are the kind of “stopgaps” you want to sign? That’s just creating faux competition. What’s the catcher equivalent here — Pudge for a couple mil? It’s a waste of cash.
You must have missed where I said, “I don’t want to hand Thole a job — but I’m ready to give him the chance to earn one.”
Pudge for a couple million is exactly what I was looking for.
He’ll be respectable, and If Thole forces him to the bench, so be it. Thole starts at AAA, and is there in the case of an injury. Small market teams may struggle with move like this, the Mets can certainly afford them.
I’m all for giving Thole the chance to earn a job, but I don’t think 1 month after a season in AA is a big enough sample to earn it. The Mets tend to feel that type of test is enough to plan around a player (see Santos, Omir or Murphy, Daniel, and unfortunately probably Francoeur, Jeff). I just feel Thole having a decent showing in september will be a bad thing for the franchise based on their previous decision making.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Aug 18, 2009 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions
agree with you generally on the perils of SSS
I just think that Thole has a more confidence-inspiring track record of OBP goodness (at all levels) than Murph did. And I’m on the record as saying giving Murphy a starting OF job was a colossal mistake. Santos and Francoeur are incredible miscalculations, because even their purportedly successful small sample sizes aren’t any good.
As an aside, I think Pudge is pretty clearly done.
Murphy has always had a decent OBP
He’s a very similar prospect to Thole in fact. When the Mets drafted him, they liked his bat but not his defense so they moved him to first. His bat clearly won’t play at first, so they’re trying him at a position where his bat will play. He’s not real fast, and has no power. He’s an almost perfect comp to Murph, so I really don’t want to see him as a regular until his defense is considered above average.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Aug 18, 2009 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions
not exactly
Murph had a BABIP-inflated, average-heavy OBP last season. Not so impressive the previous year.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=murphy011dan
His OBP in the minors was pretty good
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Aug 18, 2009 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rodriiv01.shtml
Pudge isn’t a star anymore, but he’s a perfectly decent place holder.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Aug 18, 2009 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions
ugh
wOBAs of .306, .317, and .285 over the last three years. That’s Santos-level. Again, a placeholder like him is essentially a waste of a couple mil. You might as well bring Schneider back.
I'd be OK with that too.
A guy like that can be had on a 1 year deal. If Thole beats them out, great. If not, then he can provide depth and give it another shot in a year. That type of approach will certainly increase depth. It would be a lousy move for the Pirates, but a no brainer for the Mets.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Aug 18, 2009 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Unless those 1 year deals
essentially block you from snagging a big fish, which is a real possibility with this team/management/budget. You have to try to get ultra-cheap average play where you can, and if Thole can provide it, you’ve got to give it every chance. Those “cheap” 1 year deals add up quickly — Redding/Cora/scrubby OFs, etc.
Of course, had Omar not blown it on Frankie and Ollie, among others, we wouldn’t have to worry about this.
They do add up, but the Mets have roughly 40 million coming off the books after arbitration raises.
They have holes at first and catcher where stopgaps could be reasonable solutions, and will probably use that approach in left due to F-mart (although this probably means a full year of Frenchy). They will probably only target 1 starter, and don’t need to spend big on the pen. They should have plenty available for that.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Aug 18, 2009 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Also, if crushing the Eastern League to the tune of .332/.402...
isn’t forcing anyone’s hand, I’m not sure what is.
It's only been 399 PA...that's the same type of thinking that got us Murph as a starter going into this season.
His performance certainly leaves plenty of reason for hope, but I’d hardly call it forcing the Mets hands. This is by far his best season…let’s see him do this a little longer before we expect him to start in the bigs.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Aug 18, 2009 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Not better than Schneider?
How can anyone be worse than Schneider right now? He’s a horrible season. He had one nice weekend where he hit 2 homers and has been abysmal otherwise. The D has been okay, but he’s basically a pitcher at the plate.
The point isn't whether he'd be an upgrade to schnieder right now,
it’s what damage rushing him will do to him and the organization in the future. Thole is not going to push this team to the playoffs, so why rush him?
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Aug 18, 2009 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions
That's the argument that's silly
This idea that “rushing guys” ruins guys. I can see it with pitchers, who throw to many innings, but everyday guys? If so, give me a list of guys that have been “ruined”. I think guys can either play or they can’t. They’ll either embrace the opportunity or wilt. And a 23 year old at the major league level is not rushed, that’s about right. What’s the average for a rookie in MLB? About 23.5 or 24 would be my guess. If they fail, there is an excellent chance they never would have amounted to anything anyway. Now I’m not talking about rushing a 19-20 year old like Fmart. He was clearly dominated, and not ready. But is he ruined now? That’s silly to me. When the opportunity for the job is there, and a guy has talent and has been your system for 4 years (whether all at catcher or not), he’s earned a shot, especially when there are scrubs ahead of him, and you need to figure out what the situation is for 2010.
Catching is generally considered the most difficult position to learn defensively in baseball.
If Thole had been catching for his entire minor league career, I’d be less inclined to think he’s being rushed. He’s been catching for the last season and a half though. His approach at the plate is excellent, but he has no power, isn’t fast, and isn’t a polished defensive player.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Aug 18, 2009 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Well you just said
he would not be better than Schneider. That’s sounds kind of crazy, when Schneid is hitting .180.
Defense...
Batting Average is great, but it’s the only place where Thole is ahead of Schnieder at this point.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Aug 18, 2009 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions
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