You Know Things Are Rough For The Mets When...
This started out as a David Letterman-style Top-10 list of reasons you know things are going badly for the Mets this year, but I ran out of ideas after four and decided to expand on those in greater detail instead of half-assedly cobbling together a mildly amusing enumeration just so I could say I came up with ten things.
1. Billy Wagner, just off of Tommy John surgery, seems preferable to Francisco Rodriguez as 2010 Mets closer.
Rodriguez's decline has been documented; his walk rate this season is in the bottom ten among relievers with at least 50 innings pitched (his strikeout-to-walk rate is 25th best). His tRA, 4.48, is by far the worst of his career, as is his 4.11 FIP, and his 9.16 K/9 is his lowest ever, off almost a full strikeout from last season despite moving to what most consider to be the inferior offensive league. Perhaps not coincidentally, he is inducing fewer groundballs than in any previous season. He may still be a feared reliever, but he puts a lot of guys on base and quite clearly isn't as overpowering as he once was. These are the characteristics of a closer in the twilight of his career, but Rodriguez is only 27 and is under contract for the next two years (and very likely a third year).
I only half-joke that Wagner is a feasible alternative. One dominant major league appearance in the past twelve months shouldn't convince many of his readiness to be an elite reliever just yet. However, given his likely salary next year and the particulars of Rodriguez's suffocating deal, if the Mets are presented with an opportunity to unload Frank this offseason they have to seriously consider any reasonable offer. If Wagner can return to his early 2008 form -- and I'm cautiously optimistic that he can -- he could very well be the better pitcher in 2010.
As for suitors, if the Cubs aren't convinced that Carlos Marmol can turn around his control problems they could be in the market for a closer next year. A straight swap for Milton Bradley could work for both teams, though Bradley's abrasive attitude has repelled the Mets in the past and there's no telling if they'd be interested in him brooding about the Citi Field clubhouse for the next two seasons. This is all probably moot because the Mets likely believe that Rodriguez is not only great (he isn't), but that he's actually signed to a team-friendly deal (most definitely not).
2. I'm ready to openly advocate that Omir Santos be given more playing time.
I've supported Brian Schneider in the past because I believe that his plate discipline and throwing arm make him something approaching an average big league catcher, which is unspectacular but certainly useful. Schneider is on a big time schneid, though, and should see less and less playing time as the season winds down. I think (hope?) that even the Mets don't see Omir Santos as anything more than a backup catcher, but he should probably get as many plate appearances as possible over the next 40 games just to make sure he's cut out to be even that. He neither walks nor hits for much power -- just four doubles and two homeruns in his last 121 PA -- but second-string catchers don't have to do much to be considered competent. Schneider doesn't seem to figure in the Mets' 2010 plans, so better to give Santos more time at the dish since he's likely to be with the team in some capacity next year.
3. The only complaintI can muster about Cory Sullivan batting fifth last night is that he should really be hitting higher in the order.
Sully went 1-for-2 with a walk and an RBI on Thursday night, raising his slash line to .281/.356/.422. UZR has never been crazy about his defense, but he doesn't really have enough chances this season for any rating to be statistically meaningful. Nevertheless, his .342 wOBA is the fourth-highest on the current roster, so he should be in there every day somewhere and you can make a compelling case that he should be hitting in the top half of the lineup to boot. Though I may be down on Daniel Murphy in general, I think it's fair to say he should be playing every day and we can just hope he starts to figure something out at the plate. Notwithstanding his need for development time, there's no reason he needs to bat third in the lineup. The Mets don't have many good options, but Murphy is an out machine and Sullivan has at least hit well in limited action. Move Sully up in the order until the growing set of batting data reminds us that he's terrible and he gets sent back to the bench where he probably belongs.
4. Luis Castillo's contract isn't looking so bad all of a sudden.
The Castillo contract was deservedly panned when Omar Minaya signed it into the Mets' permanent record, and the scrappy Latino secondbaseman did little in 2008 to make any of us regret our unrelenting attacks on both of them. This year has been a different story, though, as Castillo has his on-base percentage up over .400 and figures to be worth about two wins above replacement this season, or around $9 million. The final two years of the deal could still be disastrous, but right now Castillo is part of the solution instead of the problem. Folks will still rail on him for dropping that little league popup in the Yankee game earlier this season, and he's not going to be confused for Chase Utley or Dustin Pedroia anytime soon, but he has been a good soldier for the most part and remains one of the few bright spots in an otherwise dim season in Queens.
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28 comments
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Common sense approach to baseball
Revolutionary, and not to be expected in the Mets FO anytime soon. But good points all.
by deadspy3 on Aug 21, 2009 6:20 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The losing
would be so much easier to tolerate if F! & Niese were healthy and playing and even a guy like Gee. Anyway, unfortunately you’re pretty much right on all accounts there. And I would trade Frankie so fast if anyone wants him. Any chance there’s a GM dumber than Omar who would be willing to trade a top prospect for him?
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
by Evan_S on Aug 21, 2009 6:31 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
No chance except for maybe
Mark Shaprio?
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
by firejerrynow on Aug 21, 2009 6:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ed Wade will need a closer once Valverde leaves
and K-Rod broke the ZOMGLOLSAVES record just last year.
"I generally avoid temptation unless I can't resist it" ~ Mae West
by Blicks on Aug 21, 2009 7:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I didn't think Wade would be stupid enough to let Valverde go in the first place
"I reject your reality and substitute my own"
-Adam Savage
by blueandorange4life on Aug 21, 2009 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wade's pretty stupid.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Aug 21, 2009 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
in that case, we should abuse that stupidity post haste
"I reject your reality and substitute my own"
-Adam Savage
by blueandorange4life on Aug 21, 2009 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes he is
but I don’t think he’s stupid in that way.
by JoshNY on Aug 21, 2009 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was going to slag him for the Bourn/Lidge trade,
but Bourn’s worth 3.5 WAR this year, and his OBP is up 80 points from last year. Wow. He still sucks at building a farm system, though.
by BobbyV_Incognito on Aug 21, 2009 6:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
maybe
Ed Wade definitely has a fetish for overrated relievers. Does Houston have anyone useful we could get back? I can’t believe the Astros manage to be a .500 team with that wreck of a roster.
Somehow, a chain of events unfolded that put Steve Phillips in a professional broadcast booth Sunday night so he could rip Carlos Beltran. Try to explain that in any other terms.
by Greenpoint Ian on Aug 21, 2009 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah this season would be more enjoyable
if minor league prospects were getting action.
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
by firejerrynow on Aug 21, 2009 6:43 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Wagner is 38
but he DOES have a new arm (bionic I hear), and is cheaper that K-Rod.
Wagner and Putz as co-closers work for me.
by fxcarden on Aug 21, 2009 9:01 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Castillo is phoning it in
Sorry, but I can’t get past Castillo failing to cover 2b on Wednesday night. There’s no excuse for not playing hard – and with your head in the game – on every single play. He’s a veteran, and stuff like being an example actually does matter. If this happened once, I’d give him a pass – but he has seemed like he’s phoning it in too many times.
by elliot on Aug 21, 2009 10:31 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I'd like to believe Castillo can be part of the solution
But with his age/injury history I just can’t imagine relying on him for two more years on a team we expect to be competitive.
by Gina on Aug 21, 2009 10:55 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Frankie and the Cubs
If they’re going to give up on Marmol because of his control issues, why would they want to trade for a closer with control issues?
by JoshNY on Aug 21, 2009 11:02 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Plus they REALLY can't afford to take on anymore more big contracts
They have too many escalating contracts and financial troubles as it is.
by Gina on Aug 21, 2009 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Beacuse Frank's control issues
are a relative secret. SAVE RECORD!
by mets81 on Aug 21, 2009 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This
Rodriguez walks a lot of batters, this we know. However, he has a longer track record as a successful reliever than does Marmol and, while Rodriguez has control issues, he’s not walking 8+ batters per nine innings as Marmol has.
by Eric Simon on Aug 21, 2009 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
BB-Rod!!!
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
by firejerrynow on Aug 21, 2009 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fair enough
That is a LOT of batters that Marmol is walking.
by JoshNY on Aug 21, 2009 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's a nice season for Luis
but it doesn’t make up for the shit show last year, when he truly killed this team with his .660 OPS. A better 2b would have gotten them into the playoffs. And don’t give me the injury excuse, the fatty was out of shape. Plus, let’s get real, he’s only going to get worse these next two years. This is just a nice little oasis in the desert. And let’s not forget, as nice as his OBP is, he still has about 15 extra base hits all year. That’s horribly low, and is least among all 2b with 300 ABs (Okay, I made that last part up, but am confident it will stand under scrutiny).
by David G on Aug 21, 2009 5:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
He's 17th in WAR.
So while he’s not a good starting 2B, he is one nonetheless. Trust me, this is one of our smallest problems.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Aug 21, 2009 8:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
How much you wanna bet?
Omar, thinking back to his discussions from last offseason at Mama’s of Corona, somehow convinces himself to cut Castillo loose right after the season ends.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on Aug 21, 2009 6:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Watch Castillo crap the bed once the stars come back
Frankly after I saw him running from first to third the other night after Frenchy (I think) hit the ball off the bottom of the wall, It looked as if he was really dogging it. He could have scored on that play but instead he trotted the entire way. It would seem he still has that habit of going all out only when he feels like it.
Castillo is hitting well this year but for who? Funny, he can’t do it when Reyes is batting in front of him. If he hit like that with Reyes in the lineup it would be a nightmare for opponents. But alas, things like that never seem to work out for the Mets.
by McMan on Aug 22, 2009 3:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't think that's how it works
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
by Evan_S on Aug 22, 2009 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But...for who?
Um…what?
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Aug 22, 2009 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think the point is:
Castillo has somehow worked out a way, like an own-goal in soccer, to make his hits count for the other team. Sure, he’s hitting well, but not for the Mets!
by anonymous on Aug 22, 2009 6:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Have you been watching this whole season?
Castillo always looks like that when he runs.
by BobbyV_Incognito on Aug 22, 2009 11:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs





















