A Reminder Of Why ERA Is Bad
A tale of two players:
First consider their performances,
Player 1: 4.91 K/9, 2.98 BB/9, 56.2% GB, 1.38 HR/9, 5.02 FIP
Player 2: 5.27 K/9, 3.21 BB/9, 52.6% GB, 0.60 HR/9, 4.00 FIP
Pretty similar skill-sets, huh? Player 2 seems to have pitched better this season, but given better HR suppression, Player 1 could close the gap.
Pitcher's don't pitch in a vacuum, however. Much of the results on the field has to do with the defense behind a pitcher.
Player 1's Team: 18.1 Infield UZR + 14.5 Outfield UZR = 32.6 UZR
Player 2's Team: -21.8 Infield UZR + -14.5 Outfield UZR= -36.3 UZR
Their respective team's fielding prowess is reflected in their ERAs...
Player 1: 4.21 ERA
Player 2: 4.67 ERA
...and in the stories written about them.
Player 1:
Player 2:
Since pitching horribly in April/May with a strikeout-rate hovering around 1.5 K/9, Pelfrey has posted a 6.37 K/9, 2.99 BB/9 (May 23 to present). In that time span, his ERA has risen. Step back?
4 recs |
37 comments
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Comments
Ridiculous
Next you’re gonna be saying Wins for a pitcher don’t matter either.
Seriously though, I couldn’t help but chuckle as I read through this. It’s amazing how all people care about is the outcome and don’t look at possible causes for that outcome. And I like the heart next to Amazin Avenue there, nice touch.
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
by Evan_S on Aug 22, 2009 6:04 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
wins dont matter
but era does
Self-proclaimed president of the Pat White fan club.
by samdaman on Aug 22, 2009 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think it is ERA
I think it’s more of the fact that Porcello is 20, and contributing on a “winning” ballclub, when nobody expected much from him or the team. On the other hand, Pelfrey, who many people had high expectations for, is only pitching slightly above average and the Mets are sucking.
Of course, that’s just as much bullshit as ERA or Wins in determining player skill, but those factors definitely have an influence on how a player is thought of by the MSM.
Thanks
by vivaelpujols on Aug 22, 2009 6:11 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Those are factors too.
But these factors are too glaring to not be important in the deduction of their biases.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Aug 22, 2009 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
People expected more out of Pelfrey than Porcello? Really?
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by Sky Kalkman on Aug 24, 2009 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah ERA sucks
and another reason why it sucks is that you could have someone who has a low ERA, but has given up a lot of unearned runs. It’s like RBI’s in pitching stats. It’s very teammate dependent.
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
by firejerrynow on Aug 22, 2009 6:57 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
And my favorite is when a starter pitches his heart out, leaves in the 7th inning with 2 outs and runners on 1st and 2nd, then the reliever gives up a bases clearing double on the first pitch, and gets the next guy to fly out.
Relief stats suck.
by Mex_17 on Aug 22, 2009 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
AA needs to write a book
Just sayin’
by The 'Ropolitans on Aug 22, 2009 10:31 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Probably not
I don’t think there’s any money in sabermetric tomes these days; the market is way over-saturated.
Guys like Sickels and Shandler probably devote every waking minute of their lives to their books, and I bet they aren’t exact rich from it.
by Mex_17 on Aug 22, 2009 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But do they have the razor sharp wit of AA?
I think not.
by The 'Ropolitans on Aug 22, 2009 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Who says the hypothetical book would have to be about sabermetrics?
Although, if I ever did write a book it would be 500 pages about Jeff Francoeur, dedicated to Mex_17.
by James Kannengieser on Aug 22, 2009 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd buy it.
I’ll start calling Barnes and Noble.
by The 'Ropolitans on Aug 22, 2009 6:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mex-i-cant...The Jeff Failcoeur Experiment
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Schmidtxc on Aug 22, 2009 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Making Out the French Way
Tips from a seasoned professional at out-making. Plus crossover sales appeal!
by anonymous on Aug 22, 2009 6:38 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
+1
great title.
"He's definitely mixing it into his repertoire. That's French for 'repertoire' " - Keith Hernandez
by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Aug 22, 2009 8:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Awesome title.
I laughed so hard, I inhaled my water.
by BobbyV_Incognito on Aug 23, 2009 1:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Reckedy rec'd
You did forget the fact that Porcello took Youk down a couple weeks ago in that brawl. Even if the takedown was more gravity aided than anything, it added some gamer points to Porcello’s stats.
by James Kannengieser on Aug 22, 2009 11:06 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
That was kick ass.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Aug 22, 2009 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
as much as i liked that,
It was negated by his backing away at first. I mean, I don’t blame him; I don’t want an enraged Youkilis charging at me either. But I think the take-down and the freaked-out running-away cancel each other out.
batting helmets. batting titles. obp.
by Durelo on Aug 22, 2009 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know
Don’t the backing up and the Youk-helmet toss cancel each other out?
ain't had enough...
by BlackOps on Aug 22, 2009 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
League effects...
Some of that is because the AL is like beer league softball. A 4.21 ERA in the AL is “ok”. A 4.67 ERA in the NL is “bad”.
Pelfry is facing a lot more easy outs than Porcello is.
I think it would be more accurate to find an NL pitcher with close comps to Pelfry.
But good article, I like blind player comps.
On a side note, I’m always interested to find the 2 MLB with the closest matching stats. I wonder how close of a match the “closest match” would be.
by Mex_17 on Aug 22, 2009 11:16 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
so your saying we have a shitty defense?
Agreed. As long as Pelfrey strikes out 6 per 9 ill be fine with his era
by twon8 on Aug 22, 2009 11:24 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Player Compare - Who are they?
Ok, here’s a good one, although these are two AL players, sorry…
Player A: 504 AB, .392 OBP, .474 SLG, 23/51 BB/K, 24 SB
Player B: 492 AB, .396 OBP, .473 SLG, 48/65 BB/K, 21 SB
By the way, I have no point here, other than I think it’s interesting how close these two are.
Answer later! (Or yeah, you can just look it up.)
by Mex_17 on Aug 22, 2009 11:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I know!
Player A: Ichiro
Player B: Jeter
But the fact that Jetes plays a premium defensive position gives him a 1.2 WAR advantage over Ichiro. He should really be a Top 3 MVP finisher this season.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Aug 22, 2009 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Heh..good one!
I was surprised their SLG were so close. And actually I would have imagined Ichiro would have way more SB than Jeter.
by Mex_17 on Aug 22, 2009 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jeter's SLG is inflated by joke ballpark
Ichiro’s is obviously BA-driven.
by All Shook Down on Aug 22, 2009 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hate to play devil's advocate here,
but I really do not see how comparing MSM headlines after Porcello’s wins with MSM headlines after Pelfrey’s losses proves the invalidity of ERA. None of those headlines were actually based on their respective ERAs. Also, I think it’s understandable that the bar is set higher for a guy in NL coming off a very good season that for a rookie in AL.
by alexSVK on Aug 22, 2009 12:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
True.
But titles like “continuing to struggle” and “no signs of slowing down” are not after wins or losses, but recapping an entire season.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Aug 22, 2009 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Goldstein wrongly classified Pelfrey as "not that good"
When it’s fairly obvious to anyone with “saber” sensibilities (which BPro writers are alleged to have) that he is a good pitcher.
Imagine Pelfrey in 2009 with a 6.00 K/9, 2.90 BB/9, 50% GB rate and a 0.60 HR/9. He’d be a minimum salary version of Derek Lowe! Actually, he kind of already is.
Lowe: 153.2 IP / 3.75 FIP / 4.32 tRA
Pelf: 140.2 IP / 3.97 FIP / 4.60 tRA
by All Shook Down on Aug 22, 2009 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think I included enough long-term headlines
yea the comps not perfect, but…
King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president
by Sam Page on Aug 22, 2009 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pelfrey's ERA takes hits in some places that don't show up in those stats, but can be attributed directly to him.
By simply removing the 5 runs that have scored following Pelfrey balks, his ERA would drop to a more respectable 4.35. While the balks may not have led directly to all of those runs scoring, they’ve led to 8 additional bases being awarded, certainly creating better opportunities (and I’d guess at least several of those runs would not have scored). Porcellos slightly better GB% and BB% could easily make up for the .14 difference in that case.
Just from watching him, I’d argue that Pelfrey seems to struggle some with his location pitching out of the stretch as he tires. It seems like he gives up the big inning later in the game with some regularity. You can see a drastic difference in his performance with men on here: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?n1=pelfrmi01&year=&t=p
Porcello seems to have a far less drastic difference:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?n1=porceri01&year=&t=p
PelfreyWhile ERA is not the only stat (or best) that should be used to evaluate a players performance, it should be looked at.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Schmidtxc on Aug 22, 2009 12:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i like this post
i will also say that goldstein can be a clown sometimes.
i asked him about thole a month or so ago and he said, “isn’t he just santos with some walks and less power?”
not only is that answer retarded to begin with, but then yesterday when he was asked about thole
and then yesterday when he was asked about thole he said he “can hit”, and then compared him to a guy who hit .264 in the minors.
anyway, this mets defense is abominable and he would’ve been able to go 7 innings of 1 run ball with a non-pathetic ahern/castillo defense.
by firejerrymanuel on Aug 22, 2009 1:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah groundball pitchers suffer the most from shitty defence
which is why I would feel bad for Lowe as a Yankee. Cause Jeter sucks defensively.
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
by firejerrynow on Aug 22, 2009 2:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Apparently he's gotten better
Thanks
by vivaelpujols on Aug 24, 2009 6:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Though one year of good defense does not make up for a half dozen of atrocious defense.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Aug 28, 2009 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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