Repetitive Applesauce - Ollie done for year, Ike homers, Murton released, Livan served
by Joe Budd on Aug 27, 2009 8:10 AM EDT
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Pardon me for being repetitive, but I feel like EVERY SINGLE APPLESAUCE for the past three months has involved some major form of injury. Or trades that are getting increasingly one-sided. I kind of want to report some good news, but at the same time some of this stuff is just amazingly entertaining (from a masochism standpoint). Seriously though, the injury thing has been played out, we need Omar to open his mouth again, or for Tony Bernazard to write a book or something.
Meet the Mets
Although, at this point, the Mets you are meeting are barely recognizable. Mike Pelfrey is the ace of the staff, followed by Tim Redding, Pat Misch, Bobby Parnell, and Nelson Figueroa. That has got to be the most depressing sight I've seen since looking at last night's lineup. The real question, however, is whether this rotation is improved without Oliver Perez.
In case you weren't depressed enough, here's the New York Times' Ben Shpigel piling on Omar and the organization. Also, here's Jason Fry saying we're going to be in the tunnel for a long time before seeing some light.
FYI, the Post is estimating that the Mets have $88 million worth of salary on the disabled list at this point. Not surprisingly, this makes the Billy Wagner trade look even more like a salary dump.
If you want some news to bring you back from the edge, Ike Davis did hit his 11th home run of the season.
Around the NL East
Ryan Howard broke out of his PNC Park slump with a 10th inning home run that led the Phillies past the Pirates. The game was sent to extra innings by yet another blown save by the Philadelphia bullpen, this one by Ryan Madson.
Kenshin Kawakami and the Braves were cruising through five innings until the Padres launched a six-run sixth inning, propelling San Diego past Atlanta, 12-5.
Nick Johnson has finally been put on the DL. That will not help the Mets today.
Plunkeveryone.com reports that Hanley Ramirez was the 1,000th Marlin batter to be hit by a pitch. Well done Figgy. Also, nice idea for a site.
Livan Hernandez had a good start after getting served in a civil suit regarding a June car accident. Hernandez went 6 innings giving up 2 runs. The Cubs still crushed Jorge Sosa and the National bullpen to a 9-4 victory.
Around MLB
The Dodgers stave off talks of collapse with the help of Andre Ethier's two home runs against the Rockies.
Speaking of Colorado, the Rockies have DFA'd constantly underrated outfielder Matt Murton.
The Baseball Analysts evaluate the history of relievers coming back from Tommy John surgery and what that means for Billy Wagner.
Jake Peavy threw 10 pitches in a side session before complaining of lingering pain. His start this weekend against the Yankees is in jeopardy.
Driveline Mechanics discovers that Jamey Carroll is awesome.
The Blue Jay-Ray game last night knocked out two home plate umpires. That is impressive.
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UZR questions
So I was checking out the Mets 2009 UZR numbers on FanGraphs…
Here are some examples:
Murphy/1B = 1.2
Beltran/CF = -3.2
Francoeuer/RF = -5.0
Wright/3B = -7.6
Sheffield/LF = -7.7
Also, by CF position, Beltran has the lowest UZR of anyone who has played CF for the Mets this year, behind FMart, Reed, Pagan, Church, and Sullivan.
Although, UZR/150 is more appropriate for comparison. But even then, Murphy has 2.0 at 1B, and -6.3 at LF. Beltran is -5.7 at CF. Sheffield is -7.1 at RF.
So am I reading it correctly, that according to UZR/150, Murphy is about as good a defensive OF as Beltran is?
If so, WTF?
Defensive metrics are still in the early phase of life
About three years of defensive data equals about one of offensive, so year to year, I believe, there can be substantial fluctuations. Also, the UZR stat utilizes stadium data, so this year they were using the Shea stadium data because there isn’t any on Citi Field yet possibly skewing the results. Beltran has always been an exceptional defender, so two and a half months of UZR data is still a very small sample size.
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
No
First off, UZR measures how good a player’s defense is compared to others at his position. Beltran is compared to other CF’s (who are better than corner OF’s) and Murphy would be compared to other LF’s. So if Murphy played CF, his UZR would likely suffer. Also the Mets CF UZR numbers might be a bit questionable this season because Citi Field park factors are not being used. Click here for more.
Comparison of Mets OF’s, using UZR and +/-, respectively:
Beltran: -3.2, 4
Sheff: -8.9, -9
Reed: 1.5, 3
Murphy: -1.2, -1
Pagan, CF: -1.6, 5
Pagan, corner OF: 1.8, 2
Tatis: 1.4, 1
Based on this, it looks like CF shows the biggest discrepancy between the 2 metrics, which lends credence to the idea that CF data might be skewed due to not using Citi park factors.
by James Kannengieser on Aug 27, 2009 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions
Fry's post
Echoes the pessimism I expressed yesterday. Yeah, we have the big 4, but are we going to have after that?
Nothing
Let’s face it. Assuming everyone comes back healthy the Mets still need two starting pitchers better than Pelfrey, a catcher, a first baseman, and a left fielder. (I’ve given up on hoping that Francoeur won’t be back)
If Neise and F! had stayed healthy at least you could have seen whether they are capable of being on the roster at the start of next year. Now they are a crapshoot. If the Mets start next year with them and Murphy/Evans/Carter at first base, you can’t really feel good about their chances. But since the Wilpons insist on cutting payroll, that’s the most likely scenario.
I have no faith in Omar to find good value signings and I have no faith in the Wilpons to replace Minaya. If they do it will probably be with someone less competent. Unless something major changes It’s going to be ugly in Queens for a while.
As long as Reyes, Wright, Beltran and Johan perform as expected, the Mets are contenders.
They may not make the playoffs, but they’ll be close enough where the rest of the world blames them four for not making it.
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
As long as Reyes, Wright, Beltran and Johan perform as expected, the Mets are contenders.
They may not make the playoffs, but they’ll be close enough where the rest of the world blames them four for not makings it.
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
As long as Reyes, Wright, Beltran and Johan perform as expected, the Mets are contenders.
They may not make the playoffs, but they’ll be close enough where the rest of the world blames them four for not making it.
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
I have no idea what the hell happened
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
I like how the middle one has a typo
it’s like spot the difference. One of those posts is not like the others.
At least I got my point across
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
when it's all laid out like that
It’s pretty damning
"I reject your reality and substitute my own"
-Adam Savage
by blueandorange4life on Aug 27, 2009 7:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Do I have to watch?
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
i hate day games
so much harder to hide in my office and watch on gameday than to just sit on my couch and watch tv… but i’ll be in the gamethread, can’t miss two in a row after all!
by KeithsMoustache on Aug 27, 2009 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions
Get Murton
He’d possibly be their best outfielder for Sept.
Re: Rays-Jays Umpires
And the third umpire totally f***ed the Rays. The strike zone disappeared and essentially handed the game to Toronto.
Sorry, the Rays are my AL team, especially when it hurts so bad to even acknowledge the Mets’ existence.
by HotChipWillBreakYourLegs on Aug 27, 2009 11:36 AM EDT reply actions
My man.
Ike Davis hit his 11th in Binghy. It’s his 18th in the minors this year (and these past 2 years) and hit off a lefty; and Ike is starting to look like a borderline stud.
Nothing can get by him; especially in a small room: Mike Francessa
.250/.338/.400
versus lefties. Tiny sample, but better than Alonso’s tiny overall AA sample. Like chicken soup, it can’t hurt.
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