More On Francoeur/Murton
by Sam Page on Aug 28, 2009 6:00 AM EDT
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PrintWith Matt Murton being recently waived by the Rockies, there has been an interesting debate about the Mets claiming him and using him to replace Jeff Francoeur this offseason. Normally, talking about replacing a player on the Mets with some player on another team seems too fantastic for me to take seriously, but there are some circumstances that makes me agree with firejerrymanuel's conclusion that this move could be a nice little litmus test and want to add to what he said.
First, consider the significance of the Wagner trade. The Met forfeited the possibility of getting Type-A compensation (first round pick, plus a compensatory round pick) to save $3MM dollars this season, and avoid the risk of having Wagner accept salary arbitration next season. To me, this move smacks more of mismanaged resources than real cost-cutting. Consider that Wagner would make somewhere between $3-7MM (really rough estimate hence the large range), based on the fact he lost a year. I seriously doubt Wagner would accept arbitration considering his desire to close and make closer money. Also consider, Type A picks have been found to be worth about $3-5MM in surplus value. To reemphasize the value of these picks, the last time the Mets received Type-A compensation they drafted Reese Havens and Brad Holt who quickly became top-5 prospects in our system. Another recent compensatory pick by the Mets? David Wright.
Basically, the Mets threw away the chance to add two top-grade minor leaguers for $2MM dollars in salary relief and Chris Carter+friend. That is a pretty horrible use of a big budget team's resource. Regardless, though, this move means the Mets cannot in any way justify offering Jeff Francoeur arbitration. He figures to make 3-5MM, a figure that should look for familiar by now. If the Mets seriously think Jeff Francoeur is a better use of resources than a chance at first-round picks, they've lost it. He HAS to be non-tendered.
The Mets have the 6th worst record in the National League, which means they would be the 6th of the 30 teams to be given the opportunity to claim Murton. That is the advantage of being a terrible team. First a reality check about Francoeur: he's probably not any good. I've been rooting for the guy, but I doubt next year he'll really be worth he's arbitration price tag. Assuming their career numbers on offense (UZR has them even on defense), Murton's .345 wOBA is 18 runs better than Francoeur's .315 mark over 600 PA. That's 2 WAR. That's the difference between replacement level and average RF.
If the Mets want to be a cheap team, they need to start valuing players like one.
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The relief was worth more than the picks
Per the HT article you cite:
Tier 1 Surplus Value: $5.23 million
Tier 2 Surplus Value: $2.63 million
Tier 3 Surplus Value: $0.76 million
You really only get a good payoff if you land one of those Tier 1 picks, in the 16-30 range. It’s very unlikely you are going to get that with Wagner. A team would actually have to decide that signing him is worth their first round pick for that to happen.
If you are lucky enough to get picks for Wagner, the more likely case is it would be a team only giving up a 2nd rounder (like the Nationals), and so you would get picks worth 2.63+0.76=3.39M. There’s still some chance at that $5M pick, but in this case it seems to be less than the chance of getting nothing at all (Wagner accepts arbitration or no team signs him).
Also, you mention that the Mets saved $2M, but it has been widely reported that the figure was around $3.5M, which includes about $2.5M for this year (about 38/162*10.5) and the $1M buyout for next season. So what you are beating the Mets up for here is giving up a lottery ticket chance at picks worth $3.4M, in order to save $3.5M.
Additionally, Boston assumes the remainder of Wagner’s salary, which amounts to about $3.5 million….As such, keeping Wagner around for the final month of his four-year deal made little sense for the club, especially in light of public statements that they did not intend to offer him arbitration. The salary relief alone made it a worthwhile transaction.
Your estimates of arbitration awards are similarly unrealistic. Do you really think arbitrators are likely to agree that Wagner next year is worth about as much as Francoeur?
Your are simply using very biased estimates for all of your arguments here. Assuming that Wagner’s arbitrators and Francoeur’s arbitrators come form the same pool, if you estimate their arbitration awards will be roughly the same, you must expect that they are considered roughly equal in value as players. That’s without even considering the fact that Francoeur in only his 5th year will receive a substantially smaller share of his estimated value than Wagner would.
Francoeur may not be worth offering arbitration in 2010. But, he hasn’t a chance in hell at seeing any raise either. His value is clearly substantially less than a year ago, when he was only one year removed from 2.5 straight years of roughly 3.0 WAR per season play before the age of 24.
I agree that Murton would be an upgrade. Fancoeur at only 26 next year does have more long term upside than Murton, though. Murton has actually averaged 1.7 WAR per 150 games, while Francoeur has averaged 1.3, only a difference of about 0.4 wins. And, Murton had the benefit of being used more as a platoon player, which likely inflates that difference a bit.
But, there is no reason at all to debate the relative merits of Murton vs. Francoeur. The Mets obviously have room for both. Why are we even bringing Francoeur into the Matt Murton discussion, when we’ve got Cory Sullivan, a career 0 WAR player in 1135 PA, on the roster?
by acerimusdux on Aug 28, 2009 8:00 AM EDT reply actions 5 recs
two points
1) my problem with favoring the salary relief is that it’s a very short-sighted move. a team with a $140 million payroll should be more considered with the long-term potential value of two first-round draft picks than saving $3.5 million dollars in the short term (and which was essentially a sunk cost at the beginning of the season).
2) how much upside does francoeur really have? yes, he’s 26, but he’s already had 2600 ABs, and those ABs have told us that his ceiling is slightly above average. if the mets can find a player who like murton who a) can provide the same production and b) cost less, then they should try to pick up that guy. that is a legitimate way to save money.
by englishgrey on Aug 28, 2009 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions
Regardless
Acer’s last point is absolutely valid. No matter what you think of him, it’s hard to imagine Murton not being one of our top 5 outfielders next year, even after a FA signing, and so he’s worth signing regardless of where he ends up.
At the same time, I just don’t see the Mets picking him up. I don’t know why. I guess cause it makes too much sense.
by OlStubbleBeard on Aug 28, 2009 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions
francoeur does not need to be part of the mets' outfield next year
the outfield on opening day could easily be a free agent signing, beltran, and F! with pagan and murton on the bench. or we could keep francoeur and pay him $3 million for production that could be had at a cheaper salary.
by englishgrey on Aug 28, 2009 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions
True
But I think you’d be better off in that scenario sending Fernando for another stint in AAA rather than save the $3M. Now find me another guy like Pagan at league minimum, and I might change my mind. But for now, I don’t think we have the depth to pass up on Francoeuer for under $4M
I think a lot of people are underestimating Francoeuer. With the Mets so far, he has a .341 wOBA, which is above average. I don’t think he’s truly that good, but I also think he’s clearly better than his career .315 wOBA, which is for his age 21-24 seasons, years most guys are still developing in the minors. I think he’s a pretty safe bet for a .325 wOBA heading into his prime years, which is maybe 2.5 runs below average for a season, but with at least average defense, and with a -2.5 positional adjustment for RF, that makes him about 5 runs below average, or a +1.5 WAR player.
People are worrying about losing draft picks for Wagner that we were unlikely to get, but I think Francoeur is a better bet to net us picks in two years, as he has a good chance to be at least a type B, and will be a very attractive FA for 2012 at only 28 years old.
I also think Pagan in his peak years, age 28 this year and 29 next year, might be another +1.5 WAR guy.
That’s a lot of guys a bit below average, but this team has been seriously lacking in near average young players to be a productive supporting cast. I want all three of these guys, and more. The guys that don’t start end up above average guys on the bench.
I agree with you
I’ve really come around on the idea of keeping Francoeur around. I think its a gamble, but if the cost if under $4 million, a great value bet. If the resurgent power stroke is at all for real, then taking the risk on the various Frenchy-outcomes based on a BABIP of .280-.320 is pretty solid. It buys Fernando at least a few months in Triple-A, and if somehow Francoeur does have a high BABIP, he makes plenty of contact and could have enough pop to justify that risk.
I do think its a gamble that needs some support behind it though, because the odds of an outcome where Francoeur sucks again and Fernando gets hurt or doesn’t have as much success in Triple-A this time around aren’t quite so marginal that you can ignore them. Murton is a great buy in this case, but I think more can be done, such as signing both Rocco Baldelli and Andruw Jones to one year deals, offering them both about 100 starts in the season, and using them as a high-powered defensive safety net. You could even still keep Pagan around. All that defense would really help save the arms on the pitching staff, and there’s more than enough offensive potential from that bunch to build a deep lineup day in and day out.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 28, 2009 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions
is there any reason to weight the tiny "Frenchy as a Met" sample more heavily, besides that you were watching it?
but I also think he’s clearly better than his career .315 wOBA
Why? The change of uniform somehow magically made him into a different ballplayer? Do you have some kind of non-wishful, non-confirmation-biased argument for this?
I agree with you
But I think the point is, you take your average .315 wOBA hitter. There’s very little chance he puts up, say, a .350 wOBA. There’s a greater chance that he puts up a .270 wOBA. Its not quite so with Francoeur. He does have some skills. He makes contact, he has some raw power that for some reason has/had disappeared and perhaps flashed its not-so-ugly head again somehow upon moving to CitiField of all places. I think the odds Francoeur has a .350 wOBA are very similar to the odds he has a .270 wOBA. In this case, rolling the dice isn’t such a terrible idea.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 28, 2009 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Not really
I’m not really weighing his performance as a Met at all. My projection for him hasn’t changed since the trade. This is a guy who through age 23, through 1656 PA, had a .782 OPS, a league average 100 OPS+, including a 29 HR year. Guys just don’t normally peak by age 23.
Now I do think he was a bit “lucky” for some of that, but equally unlucky for the year and half after that with the Braves, where he had very low BABIPs (.277 in 2008 and .280 in 2009). With the Mets he’s back up to a likely unsustainable .331.
But, he doesn’t need to beat his career average .305 BABIP in order to beat his career average ..315 wOBA. If he strikes out less, he can raise his wOBA without raising BABIP. Strikeouts are typically high for a young player who is aggressively promoted, and fall with experience.
Take a look at strikeouts per PA for Francoeur:
058/274= 21.1% 2005
132/651= 20.3% 2006
129/642= 20.1% 2007
111/653= 17.0% 2008
071/499= 14.2% 2009
He has struck out in 17.8% of PA for his career. If he can reduce that to 16%, that will add 4.9 runs per 600 PA to his average. If he can reduce it to 15%, that will add 7.5 runs per 600 PA.
When I speculate that he is already about a .325 wOBA talent, I am only guessing that he’s about 5.2 runs better than his .315 wOBA career average. That just seems to me like a natural assumption to make for a player whose sample of big league PA came at such a young age.
I also think that his numbers are comparable to others who became decent (bear average) players. Juan Encarnacion is an example of a player I think he will be comparable to. Encarnacion actually walked even less through age 25, and had a bit less pop.
How much do you think Wagner would make in arbitration?
That’s without even considering the fact that Francoeur in only his 5th year will receive a substantially smaller share of his estimated value than Wagner would.
Arbitration is only progressive for service time for players still under team control i.e. Francoeur, not Wagner. I honestly have no idea what Wagner would make, which is why I said as high as 7MM, more than Francoeur would likely make.
It’s besides the point too. Wagner could have been in line to make 9MM in arbitration (no way that’s true) and it still would have been worth offering.
King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president
6-9M
With K-Rod getting a contract averaging over $12M a year, I wouldn’t necessarily want to go to arbitration with a premium closer. Trevor Hoffman’s $6M contract is likely the floor for a similar player, assuming Wagner proves to be healthy, and looks as good as he did his first couple of appearances.
Also this calculation makes no sense to me
Murton has actually averaged 1.7 WAR per 150 games, while Francoeur has averaged 1.3, only a difference of about 0.4 wins. And, Murton had the benefit of being used more as a platoon player, which likely inflates that difference a bit.
King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president
My mistake
You are right, I was sloppy in using per game. If anything that punishes Murton for being used as a bench player.
Let me try per PA:
Murton 3.9/2808*600= 2.23 per 600 PA
Francoeur 5.9/1051*600=1.26 per 600 PA
So that’s more like a difference of 1 WAR. Now THAT difference is likely overstated, as Murton was used as a platoon guy and faced a higher percentage of LHP. Plus, this is for Francoeur’s age 21-25 season, while for Murton it’s ages 23-27. Francoeur is just entering his prime and has more upside.
In reality, I think that Murton may be better, but I also think Francoeur is likely about a +1.5 WAR per season player going forward for ages 26-28. that is, I expect about a .325 wOBA, with at least average defense in RF.
Also
You really only get a good payoff if you land one of those Tier 1 picks, in the 16-30 range. It’s very unlikely you are going to get that with Wagner. A team would actually have to decide that signing him is worth their first round pick for that to happen.
Very unlikely? I mean half of baseball has unprotected picks. I disagree with this, I think it’s worth trying.
King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president
Honestly
Part of the risk there is Wagner accepts arbitration.
But, truthfully, I don’t see why we couldn’t just trade K-Rod in that circumstance. So yes, maybe they should have taken the risk. But they had decided they really didn’t want Wagner, and weren’t willing to risk him accepting arbitration.
trade krod?
who is going to take krod?
what?
weird.
by firejerrymanuel on Aug 28, 2009 11:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah but how many of those teams with unprotected picks
Will be signing Wagner and then be done spending on top tier free agents. If any of them sign another Type A, its very unlikely the Mets get the first round pick. I guess that’s an unlikely outcome in a way, since most teams with dreams of competing for the playoffs likely won’t want to take such a big risk in the back end of their bullpen, but then you also have to weigh the likelihood that a small market, non-contender with a protected first round pick is the team that signs him.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 28, 2009 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Wagner declining arbitration is a huge assumption
I don’t understand how this is being glossed over. First of all, assuming Wagner maintains both strong performance and health over the rest of the season is a pretty big leap of faith considering the circumstances. If that happens, you’ve essentially thrown away $3.5 MM. And that’s what you call a poor allocation of resources.
But let’s even assume that Wagner remained healthy and productive over the rest of the season — even then, I can’t see any way he wouldn’t accept if offered. Forget the “Wagner wants to close” spiel for a second. There was no way the Mets could afford to keep Wagner if he accepted — the Mets know it, his agent knows it, the whole world knows it.
So if Wagner were to accept, what options would the Mets have? Either immediately cut him and essentially buy out the contract for a bit over $1 MM or try and trade him, which would almost undoubtedly require the Mets to eat a portion of his contract. Wagner makes out like a bandit either way.
Getting rid of Wagner was the only move. Honestly, I think Chris Carter sucks — but just getting a live body like him should be considered a minor victory, imo.
Well reports were he even wanted the Sox to guarantee they wouldn't offer
I don’t think its impossible that he would have accepted, but it just seems very unlikely. I don’t think Billy’s trying to play himself into a favorable market position for the sake of money, he wouldn’t be saying things like “I’m too old to set up”. Closing seems like the legitimate priority for him. I agree that if the risk was high that he would accept it would be a major factor, I just don’t really think it was. Everything seems to indicate that he wants to move on to a quiet little corner of baseball where he can rack up his precious saves and retire with his name as high up in the record books as possible.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 28, 2009 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Looks like you confused Cerrone
His reply to your piece on his blog:
… sam, the Mets problem isn’t a lack of spending… to call them cheap is unfair… they will have spent more money on players this season than any other team in the National League… how is that being cheap… instead, the real problem is with how they spend money… they need to allocate their resources in a more effective way… in fact, go back and read berg’s column, as he discusses this very point…
I think Matt missed the point on this one. You weren’t calling them cheap, more saying that if the are going to look for cheaper options in the future this is what they should be doing.
I agree, even if Murton ends up not being very good, he will in all liklihood be at least worth his own salary, where as I don’t know that I can say the same for Francoeur next year.
...whoosh...
…the sound of an intelligent argument passing over Cerrone’s head, unnoticed… …while he responded to some chimera from his own brain instead…
you forgot the italics
"He's definitely mixing it into his repertoire. That's French for 'repertoire' " - Keith Hernandez
by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Aug 28, 2009 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions
hah
To Cerrone’s credit, he keeps linking to AA.
Which is ironic
because he gets ripped on here all the time.
i kinda like that
if he reads the site, he probably knows that the commenters (and sam himself) are not his biggest fans. yet he keeps linking. i can respect that.
by englishgrey on Aug 28, 2009 10:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Big whiff
I think it’s pretty clear that Sam wasn’t saying the Mets are literally a “cheap” team.
by James Kannengieser on Aug 28, 2009 8:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Francoeur and Upside
he has none. he’s dogshit. he’s drawn 3 walks of his own volition in 165+ at-bats. that’s less than a walk per 50 at-bats.
so this “new” met francoeur hasn’t improved his biggest weakness, at all.
which leaves us to his power. what’s more likely: he’s magically found a power stroke, or that he’s gotten a disproportionate amount of shitty pitches which he’s managed to hit hard.
he still has no idea what’s coming. he has no approach at the plate. he’s hitting .300 with a fluke BABIP. the second that comes down to earth, he has a .310-.320 OBP in his absolute best-case scenario.
now there is no way that francoeur is a true .500 slugging player, but shit, let’s give him a slugging of .480.
so francoeur’s best case scenario is an OPS of .800. and that’s with the concession that he can hit .290 and slug .480.
and his range is poor. and he’ll cost 4 million.
you can’t just say, “he’s young, he has upside.” he has to slug .470+ to be halfway tolerable offensively. and the next time he slugs greater than .450 during a full season will be his first time.
seriously, he has a high BABIP now and his BA isn’t even that high. what upside is there?
just because he’s 25? there are a lot of guys who never get better.
he’s just bad.
by firejerrymanuel on Aug 28, 2009 11:22 PM EDT reply actions
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