Wagner, Arbitration and Closer Opportunities

by firejerrymanuel on Aug 28, 2009 11:58 PM EDT

A lot has been made of Billy Wagner being shipped off for salary relief and little else. The complaint is preicated on the notion that if we had offered Billmando Wagnetiz arbitration, his desire to close would overrule his desire to get paid, he would assuredly reject arbitration and we (the Mets) would walk away with two shiny new draft picks.

There are those who think that Billy will easily find work, while others, such as myself, feel as though this is a dicey proposition. Rather than arguing back and forth, it seems prudent to look at teams who would be in the market for a closer and to then try to make a logical argument as to why they would be likely to forfeit their draft picks and pay Wagner to close for them.

Teams with a "need": Orioles, Cubs, Tigers, Braves, Marlins, Nationals, Astros, Brewers

If you feel as though I've left any teams out, please say so in the comments.

Analysis:

Orioles - I don't see them as having a true in-house replacement, though Jim Johnson has a nice ERA and has been doing a passable job. But I would find it surprising that under the new management, the Orioles would be interested in sacrificing their 2nd round pick to sign a 39 year old closer. Doubtful.

Cubs - Marmol is their present closer, but he's been worse than K-Rod in the free passes department. While he has nasty stuff, it's quite possible that they would be in the market for a new closer. In the mix.

Tigers - Rodney will be a free agent, but I don't think it's out of the question they would bring him back. Despite the fact that he too is from the K-Rod school of free passes, he's 28 for 29 in closing opportunities. However, they're clearly in the market for a closer.

Braves - Both Soriano and Gonzalez are free agents, and there are no other in house candidates, so they'll have a need for a closer.

Marlins - Lack a true closer, with Nunez taking over for Lindstrom. Both Nunez and Lindstrom are under team control next year, though neither are the safest bets. Regardless, I can't imagine the Marlins dipping into the FA market for a closer who would cost them Type A compensation and millions of dollars. Doubtful.

Nationals - Need for a closer and an object of Billy's affection. The question is, why would they sign Wagner and fork over a 2nd round pick when they're just going to finish last again? Not to mention the possible in house alternative of Storen. Doubtful.

Astros - Billy's old team. Valverde is leaving. Seem to have money problems. Dumb management. Seems like they might value Billy's low monetary price tag and not care as much about draft pick compensation. Strong possibility.

Brewers - No in house options, though judging from last year's off season, they seem to be reluctant to get involved in the FA closer market, as they passed on Wood, Fuentes and K-Rod and instead went after FA bargain Hoffman. If that was their strategy last year, I find it hard to believe they'd all of a sudden they'd suddenly be interested in dipping in this year.

Conclusion:

There are four teams out there that seem like possible matches for Wagner: the Cubs, Braves, Astros, and Tigers. Keep in mind the following closers are all available: Mike Gonzalez, Kevin Gregg, Trevor Hoffman, Fernando Rodney, Rafael Soriano, and Jose Valverde. Wagner is competing with six other closers for what looks like four spots. Of those closers, who is Wagner demonstrably better than? Gregg and maybe Mike Gonzalez? That would leave Wagner as the fifth best available closer. Considering the talent on hand, I can't imagine why either the Braves or the Tigers would bring in a free agent closer who wouldn't be much of an upgrade, and in addition, lose a draft pick. Especially for the Tigers, as Rodney is only a Type B, so they wouldn't be able to replace his pick.

Ultimately, it appears as though Wagner is competing for, at best, four closer jobs, with seven other closers. And quite possibly, there could be only two teams with openings. Considering his age, murky health reputation, and Type A status, it seems like a large leap of faith to assume that there will be a warm closers job waiting for him with open arms come winter time. And if he's left out in the cold, I'm sure he would quickly warm up (pun-gasm!) to the idea of getting paid 8 million dollars to set up.

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Comments

Rays, Jays, Mariners

Rays – J.P. Howell has done a nice job as closer. His FIP is a respectable 3.64 but his BB rate is close to 4. They might look for a closer and move Howell back into a setup role especially since Balfour has taken a step back this year ERA wise. They just cleared payroll space on Kazmir so they might look for a value closer.

Jays – Scott Downs has posted respectable FIP’s but this is the first year his K rate is over 9 and his BB rate is under 3. Getting rid of the Rios contract clears some payroll space so they might look for a value closer.

Mariners – Everybody is slurping David Aardsma because he came out of nowhere and is posting a sub 2.50 ERA with 30 saves. But he doesn’t have a track record to indicate this more than a fluke and he has a career BB rate over 5. (4.91 this year)

In all likelihood these teams wouldn’t be in the market for Wagner. But if they are in the market for a potential closer/ relief ace, that puts 11 teams in the market for these 7 pitchers. As some of the bargain guys fall, that increases the chances that the remaining teams would take a chance on Wagner. (Pending his performance down the stretch.)

by Reg Dunlop on Aug 29, 2009 1:47 AM EDT reply actions

Thought about them

The Rays have way too much pitching to be in the market for a Type A closer, and Howell has been good all year until a recent blip. I would be very surprised if they dipped into the market.

The Jays do need a closer in theory, but they should have enough with Frasor and Downs. Plus they have more pressing needs, one would think.

by firejerrymanuel on Aug 29, 2009 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions

Even if Wagner does accept arbitration

There’s always the possibility he pitches well. He looked good in his two appearances with the Mets. He’s far more likely to be worth the money he gets than, say, Frankie. Either take the picks or let him pitch. He can at least help the major league team, which I think is pretty unlikely for Carter and whatever nothing player we get.

by yellomellojello on Aug 29, 2009 2:18 AM EDT reply actions

I think it was a move predicated on the Wilpons

telling Omar that he couldnt offer Wagner arb because: 1) the minute chance he’d accept it and 2) they didnt want to pay for an extra first/second round pick and sandwich pick.

I think that Wags comments about wanting to close make it pretty certain he wouldnt have accepted arb and wanted to be a free agent. He’s got enough cash so taking a smaller $$ deal doesnt matter as much to him as closing and getting 400 & possibly passing Franco for the LHP saves record. Remember Billy: there’s always money in the Alpaca Farm.

by mets81 on Aug 29, 2009 9:53 AM EDT reply actions

Ding Ding Ding

We have a winner. Also, the money argument is fairly reasonable being as we have greater needs than paying Wags 5mil next year to setup.

by Balagast on Aug 29, 2009 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions

the entire point

was to show that he can say “i’m gonna close!” but there actually needs to be a team who will sign him as a closer.

and should he be shut out of closer jobs, where is he going to turn?

by firejerrymanuel on Aug 29, 2009 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions

I addressed that in the 2nd paragraph

I think that Wagner would take less money to close and if he’s willing to take a 1 year 5 or 6 mil deal, he’s attractive to a lot of teams as a closer.

by mets81 on Aug 29, 2009 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions

no.

you didn’t.

you just said, “he’s attractive as a closer.”

by firejerrymanuel on Aug 29, 2009 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Well maybe I didnt get your premise then

Was it that he would accept arbitration because there arent available closing jobs or that no team would sign him so the Mets wouldnt get draft picks?

Becuase I thought it was the first, which I addressed because I truly think that Wagner will not accept arbitration from the Red Sox, and wouldnt have from the Mets, regardless of whether he has another team ready to sign him or not. Remember a player has to decline or accept in early december and the reliever market hasnt really heated up until January. So Wagner will have to choose before he’s got teams lined up.

If its the 2nd, Juan Cruz got signed even though he was Type A – he got signed late, for less money than he wanted, but signed nontheless (as a set up man – so a team gave up their pick for a setup man). Someone will sign Wagner to close. If he’s healthy (which is a ?? and will cost him money) he’s better than Gonzales, Soriano, Gregg and possibly Rodney. Remember, although Hoffman’s been good it took a while for him to get signed and it likely will again (if he even pitches next year). And Valverde will cost $$$$, so really Wagner, if willing to take less money, is a pretty attractive option for some of those teams you list.

by mets81 on Aug 29, 2009 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions

Cruz didn't get signed

The D-backs resigned him and then traded him didn’t they?

by Gina on Aug 29, 2009 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Nope.

B-ref says the Royals got him as an FA.

by BobbyV_Incognito on Aug 29, 2009 8:13 PM EDT up reply actions

Here this is where your logic is flawed:

Brewers – No in house options, though judging from last year’s off season, they seem to be reluctant to get involved in the FA closer market, as they passed on Wood, Fuentes and K-Rod and instead went after FA bargain Hoffman. If that was their strategy last year, I find it hard to believe they’d all of a sudden they’d suddenly be interested in dipping in this year

Wagner is this years Hoffman, he’s a bargain because he will likely only cost the picks and will take an incentive ladden deal. He’s not looking for a K-Rod deal, he’s looking for a Hoffman deal in a place he can still close.

by mets81 on Aug 29, 2009 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions