Cursed Applesauce - Niese and Sheffield gone, Mets might turn to Parnell, Pedro ready

by Joe Budd on Aug 6, 2009 8:39 AM EDT in Applesauce Comment 38 comments

There goes one of the only potentially interesting storylines this team has left. Is it strange, however, that I'm actually appreciating David Wright a lot more this season (he of the mere 8 home runs)? I almost want to sit him, just to protect him. To not take him out of his original packaging. At least not for this lousy awful 162 games we call a "season".

Meet the Mets

Another two bite the dust. Jon Niese is out for the season and Gary Sheffield joins him. Niese is going to have season ending surgery on that hamstring. What did we do to deserve such a season? The common explanation is a curse. More here and here as well.

Anthony Djavan Harris calls David Wright's season "pillow soft" because of the lack of home runs and RBIs.

Could Bobby Parnell replace Jon Niese in the Met rotation? He was pretty strong through 3 innings yesterday.

Jose Reyes has scar tissue behind his knee. He will remain in New York for physical therapy.

Shannon Shark thinks the Mets will hire Bobby Valentine as a distraction. Ooooo....shiny.....

Mike Silva cites James' post, but dismisses WAR.

Around the NL East

JA Happ (still in the rotation) pitched a complete game shutout against the Rockies, allowing only 4 hits. Next up: Cliff Lee in his home debut.

Pedro struck out 11 in 6 innings in what should be his final rehab start. He did give up 4 runs.

The Nationals continue to prove that they're better than the Mets, winning their fourth straight again.

Emilio Bonifacio's role has changed since the acquisition of Nick Johnson. Fredi Gonzalez still is using him, however.

Tommy Hanson is good.

Around MLB

What is a SABR convention like?

Big market teams (not the Mets, of course) finally understand the inefficiencies of the market highlighted by Moneyball. Not good, however, for the small market teams.

The Red Sox have signed right handed pitcher Paul Byrd.

Boston continues to be good with a revolving door at shortstop.

Jason Schmidt had a setback in his major league comeback, getting roughed up last night. Still healthy, though.

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WAR

I’m looking forward to James’ rebuttal, lol

by Joe D. on Aug 6, 2009 8:57 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Silva is such a moron

Professional journalist and the idiot doesnt even know the difference between “fare” and “fair,” and I use the term “professional” very loosely.

As for WAR… no one cares if Silva doesnt like it. He’s probably not even smart enough to understand it. In fact, the fact that he dismissed WAR makes it an even more credible statistical measure.

by Steeeve on Aug 6, 2009 9:26 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

That's the dumbest argument I've ever heard

Sorry Silva, any writer dismissing a standard of measure based on such a flimsy argument automatically gets thrown in the trash by me.

Metaphorically speaking of course.

by dcmetsfan on Aug 6, 2009 9:31 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

That "fictitious ballplayer" is better than Jeff Francouer.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Aug 6, 2009 9:39 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Fictitious player argument is a cop-out

As for using WAR, any stat that using a fictitious player as its benchmark automatically gets thrown in the trash by me. James you had me up until you cited WAR.

What’s the benchmark for batting average: a nondescript .300 hitter. Sure, there are plenty of actual .300 hitters out there, but when you gauge the competence of a player by his batting average you aren’t comparing him to Emmet Heidrick; you’re comparing him to some fictitious .300 hitter.

I guess we won’t see Mike Silva refer to a player’s batting average anymore. Or RsBI for that matter, since the benchmark for that is a fictitious slugger who knocks in 100 runs.

by Eric Simon on Aug 6, 2009 9:46 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

how about his ERA argument

Paul Byrd is an average pitcher, he has a 4.50 ERA. so you’re comparing him to a fictitious pitcher?

"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"

by firejerrynow on Aug 6, 2009 10:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think the fictititious player argument

is a way of saying “Hey look, statnerds, I know what this stat means but I don’t like it for my own reasons,” when he really just doesn’t understand it.

by dtro on Aug 6, 2009 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This

I’ve heard the same argument from friends and family who are not interested in learning about the game as I am.

“Who cares that Albert Pujols is worth 8 wins more than a minor leaguer? Why are we comparing him to a minor leaguer when we should compare him to other major leaguers?”

“Johan Santana isn’t a 5-win pitcher! He won 16 last year!”

by James Kannengieser on Aug 6, 2009 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thing about WAR

and other replacement level stats is that its hard for some people to think about replacement level. But, really every Met fan this year should be aware of it, seeing as almost our whole lineup is replacement level.

"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"

by firejerrynow on Aug 6, 2009 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think its normal that you are appreciating David Wright more.

He’s really good, and the rest of this team is pretty much replacement-level (sorry Mike Silva) right now.

Plus, I’m guessing for those of us that appreciate David Wright, we are appreciating him a little more to make up for the flack he is getting from bozos like “Anthony Djavan Harris” (frankly that name sounds made up) who believe that David Wright is responsible for his lack of RBIs.

by mets81 on Aug 6, 2009 10:03 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

yea but

how hard is his nose?

by dtro on Aug 6, 2009 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

While we're on the topic of noses...

http://www.nyfuturestars.com/photos/mets02232008/thumbnails/tn100_1799.jpg

by The 'Ropolitans on Aug 6, 2009 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Now there's a nose

that could unite this clubhouse and lead us to a grission-filled championship.

If only his legs still worked.

by dtro on Aug 6, 2009 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

One leg is A-OK

The other…

by The 'Ropolitans on Aug 6, 2009 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"clubhouse chemistry"

“I don’t agree with his assessment of clubhouse chemistry being overrated, since that has been disputed by just about every baseball person I talk to” does he talk to fictitious baseball people?

"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"

by firejerrynow on Aug 6, 2009 10:05 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

There are plenty of issues with WAR

the benchmark it uses isn’t one of them.

You don't cheer for the Mets. You drink for the Mets.

by Kevin H on Aug 6, 2009 10:07 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

What are issues with WAR?

"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"

by firejerrynow on Aug 6, 2009 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'll say 1 is that defensive metrics aren't flawless

Fangraphs WAR uses UZR, Sean Smith’s WAR uses TotalZone, and although these have been shown to correlate decently it’s not an exact science.

by James Kannengieser on Aug 6, 2009 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

Yeah, I was going to say that.

I’m not saying it’s not useful or should be “thrown in the trash”.

You don't cheer for the Mets. You drink for the Mets.

by Kevin H on Aug 6, 2009 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's my only real argument with WAR at this point.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Aug 6, 2009 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The great thing about WAR

is that it takes all of a player’s on-field contributions and distills them to a single meaningful number. The problem is that the distillation process does cloud the picture that those individual value components paint. WAR by itself tells you nothing about the player’s defense individually, nor does it tell you what type of hitter he is (or pitcher), good, bad, and the variations thereof.

For instance, given two players with identical WAR, I have no idea which one is the better fielder, which hits for more power or has better plate discipline. This isn’t really a flaw; WAR doesn’t intend to provide this type of granularity. We still need wOBA (and subsequently the slash components: avg, obp, slg), individual defensive metrics, plus walk/strikeout/homerun/groundball rates for pitchers.

WAR does a great job of telling us whether or not a player is good; we still need more targeted metrics to understand why.

by Eric Simon on Aug 6, 2009 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

exactly

"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"

by firejerrynow on Aug 6, 2009 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Defence is always hard to measure

its like WARP with BP, I am really not extremely confident in their fielding metrics. But, yeah it should not be thrown in the trash. Almost every stat has deficiencies.

"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"

by firejerrynow on Aug 6, 2009 10:31 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

BP’s WARP is pretty iffy. But to “throw a stat in the trash” when it’s pretty clear you don’t understand it and are just scared away by a new acronym is downright ig’nant.

by James Kannengieser on Aug 6, 2009 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

hell's yeah

I mean you wouldn’t throw avg or era in the trash

"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"

by firejerrynow on Aug 6, 2009 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Screw "distraction"

The Mets should re-hire Bobby V because he’s a better manager than the clowns we’ve had for the last three years.

by JoshNY on Aug 6, 2009 11:14 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I remember

how he distracted us from the fact that our outfield was terrible while taking the team to the 2000 world series.

by dtro on Aug 6, 2009 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Anderson Hernandez is a Met again

by The 'Ropolitans on Aug 6, 2009 11:33 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Huh

They rraded Greg Veloz for him.

Greg Veloz was rated in the top 20 Mets prospects coming into this season. (#17 on Sickels’ list, a C+)

I guess he must have really fallen out of favor this year. Where’s Meddler to fill us in?

by mnbv on Aug 6, 2009 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Because he sucks

He’s hitting .230 with 0 power and very few walks.

Toby Hyde: “The swift Veloz, who has never learned to take a pitch, has a chance to be Hernandez when he grows up, but he might not even progress that far.”

by Steeeve on Aug 6, 2009 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs