Baby Pelfrey Applesauce - Parnell will start for Mets, Anderson Hernandez back, Ike Davis, Cliff Lee's home debut
by Joe Budd on Aug 7, 2009 9:46 AM EDT
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So much for the Padres "anemic" offense. Livan can do that to people. He's just a giving person, that's all. Remember when Jody Gerut hit that home run off Mike Pelfrey? That was great.
Meet the Mets
Congratulations to Mike Pelfrey, who became a father yesterday. Since the Mets aren't really playing for anything anyway, Jerry Manuel scratched Pelfrey from his start on Saturday and announced that Bobby Parnell will pitch in his place.
The Mets have reacquired their 2005 starting second baseman Anderson Hernandez.
Despite the crappy season and their horrible depth in the farm system, we can at least take solace in the fact that Ike Davis has started proving himself.
OhMurph has exclusive photos of Jose Reyes' scar tissue.
The Mets could trade Billy Wagner in a waiver wire deal if the left handed reliever proves himself healthy in his upcoming comeback.
Beyond the Box Score rated Major League teams based on their value to the fans. At least we are right in the middle...
Mets Geek reminds us that Omir Santos hasn't yet regressed to the mean.
Around the NL East
The Nationals need only 3 more wins to pass the 1962 Mets as they won their fifth straight, coming back from a 6-0 deficit to beat the Marlins 12-8. They're also not as bad as Kansas City, at least not since they've acquired Nyjer Morgan.
Speaking of Nyjer Morgan, he has an alter ego: Tony Plush. I want him on my team now.
Could there be a non-injury related Nick Johnson jinx?
Cliff Lee impressed in his Philadelphia home debut and the Phils beat the Rockies 3-1. Philadelphia GM Ruben Amaro announced that JA Happ will remain in the rotation. No word yet on what that means for Pedro.
Brett Myers felt good after a simulated game.
Andre Ethier hit a walk-off three run home run off of lights-out Atlanta closer Rafael Soriano to lead the Dodgers over the Braves 5-4.
Prior to the game, Atlanta signed their first round draft pick, pitcher Mike Minor. Minor received signing bonus of $2.4 million, the largest in franchise history.
Around MLB
A man fell 40 feet off the Tropicana field escalators onto concrete, escaping with broken legs.
Beyond the Box Score creates an admittedly inexact ranking of Negro League players.
Bobby Abreu became the sixth player in MLB history with 250 home runs, 2,000 hits, 1,000 runs, 1,000 RBI, and 300 stolen bases.
The Mariners are having none of the proposed strip club in their neighborhood.
David Ortiz will hold a press conference tomorrow on his reported positive drug test.
Prince Fielder and Guillermo Mota were both fined for their bean ball escapades.
The Yankees acquired Chad Gaudin from the Padres.
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Nyjer as Tony Plush
The Nats are bad but atleast they provide some entertainment value. Nyjer dominating the OF and coming up with alter egos. Adam Dunn hitting the ball 500 feet. The President’s race.
by James Kannengieser on Aug 7, 2009 10:07 AM EDT reply actions
Don't forget his DJ name:
DJ Ny Ny Ny Ny Nyj Nice. Awesome.
"He's definitely mixing it into his repertoire. That's French for 'repertoire' " - Keith Hernandez
by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Aug 7, 2009 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions
Nyjer is a cool dude
Between him and Dunn and an excuse to get drunk, I am heading over to Nats Park more often this month
I'd pay the $15 cover to get into DJ Ny Ny Ny Ny Nyj's club
by James Kannengieser on Aug 7, 2009 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions
You forgot the last word in his name:
“Nice”.
"He's definitely mixing it into his repertoire. That's French for 'repertoire' " - Keith Hernandez
by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Aug 8, 2009 12:57 AM EDT up reply actions
BtB ranking of value to the fans
Mets are the 4th worst value. And it doesn’t account for the pain of watching Berroa, Redding, Green or Jerry.
I thought I read they were 5th?
And to be fair, that was based on winning percentage, which means it doesn’t take into account all the injuries that caused the team to become a bad value.
If memory serves...
… last year, the Mets were something like 8th-or-9th worst, value-wise at midseason.
Injuries weren’t so much a problem then.. if memory serves.
by LeiterMilnerFasterStronger on Aug 7, 2009 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions
I had a bad dream last night that we were all Pirates fans.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
<3 pirates
MILLEDGE
King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president
ACK!
GIT YO FRENCH FRIES OFFA MAH SAMMICH!
by LeiterMilnerFasterStronger on Aug 7, 2009 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions
I can't stand Cerrone calling Daniel Murphy "Dave Magadan/John Olerud"
It’s just amazing that he thinks all white, lefty, similarly-sized first baseman are the same hitters.
As far as I can tell, that’s not his point. His point seems (to me) to be that Olerud was a (162 game average) .295 hitter, with 18 HR and 89 RBI per year. Magadan was a .288, 4 HR 51 RBI per 162 games. Each also averaged 20-30 doubles per year.
So, when you look at Murphy and see the potential for a relatively low power(probably 15 HR per year is his potential), a good average (I can see him being a .275-.285 hitter), and some doubles, along with solid defense, I can see a comparison. Is it perfect? No. But I can totally see comparing 3 left handed 1B with slightly below average power, gap hitting prowess, a good eye, and a solid average.
Meh, what he is trying to say
is that he pictures Murph as a .300+, low home run, good defense first basemen, which, yeah, is a underestimates Olerud (OBP!) and overestimates Magadan (never hit 10 bombs.) He might as well said Keith Hernandez but I think even casual fans would call shananagens if he compared him to the first/second most beloved Met in history.
To be fair, Olerud’s OBP in his 2nd season(1991, because 1989 was just 8 AB’s) was .353. Murphy’s right now is .319. Yes, Olerud’s was significantly higher, but if we factor in that Toronto’s stadium favored hitters(using the numbers from baseball reference’s park factors), that Citi Field is a big pitchers park, that Murphy has had to deal with position changes, and that Olerud had a SIGNIFICANTLY better team around him, I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that Murphy could end up reaching a .360+ or so OBP down the road.
I don’t EXPECT it, but it’s a possibility…
Your new nickname is "Devil's Advocate"
by James Kannengieser on Aug 7, 2009 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions
I’ll take it, as long as I don’t get bashed for my opinion like in the Francouer thread.
I mean, I don’t think my points are “wrong”, just different from some people here. Obviously it’s a place for discussion, so if anyone wants to disagree, go ahead….I will tell you that I’m very stubborn though, haha.
That's fine and discussion is encouraged here
but disagreement for the sake of disagreement isn’t really productive. Not saying you’re doing that but just something to think about.
by James Kannengieser on Aug 7, 2009 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions
Absolutely
I hope I’m not being seen as disagreeing for the sake of disagreement, because that’s really not it. I mean, I see certain things differently, that’s how the world is, no hard feelings for anyone I’ve debated with.
In that case, I agree to disargee
Sure, maybe Murphy can become peak .360 OBP guy but Olerud was a .400 OBP player for his career. Any comparison of Murphy to Olerud should explictly say either Olerud-lite, Diet Olerud, Olerud 64, or Olerud Premium Light.
by Sokojoe on Aug 7, 2009 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Ya know, I’d say relatively valuable. I mean, I’d rather have a good glove, good OBP, below average power 1B who puts forth effort and has that grit(grission), than spend more money on Aubrey Huff or someone this offseason.
Thing is, this year, Murph has been -0.1 WAR.
That’s not explicitly his fault (he probably would have been played more during hot streaks and less during cold streaks if Jerry wasn’t a TOTAL idiot) and is probably not his final value. But still, John Olerud is a fringe HOF candidate in my eyes, while Murphy will probably only sniff the surface of starting calibur.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
I would completely disagree there. What makes Olerud a fringe HOFer? His 2200 hits? His 500 2B? his 250 HR?
Olerud’s nowhere close to a HOF player, as much as I love him. He was a very good player, but even the HOF metrics on baseball reference say the following:
Black Ink Batting – 7 (323), Average HOFer ≈ 27
Gray Ink Batting – 51 (490), Average HOFer ≈ 144
Hall of Fame Monitor Batting – 68 (270), Likely HOFer ≈ 100
Hall of Fame Standards Batting – 38 (157), Average HOFer ≈ 50
He much better than Jim Rice
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
Those baseball-reference metrics don't mean anything
They aren’t based on WAR or an other sort of value measure, they just add up a few of the peculiar milestones that the BBWAA cares about.
But that’s what the argument is. In order to be a fringe hall of famer, he has to have the MILESTONES THAT THE BBWAA WILL VOTE FOR. Olerud doesn’t. Olerud is not going to get voted in by the BBWAA, not even close. That’s my point.
Right, but I dont think squid
was saying that Olerud is a fringe “player that is 75% liked by an arbitrary commitee with no set standards” rather using HOF to mean that Olerud is a fringe all time best player. He is currently ranked something like 153rd all time in position player WAR (is it sad I don’t have to look that up?) so while I personally wouldn’t consider him fringe HOF, he once again, should not be compared to so casually with Murphy.
Well I know he's worth
56 (.3?) WAR without looking it up. Didn’t know he was 153 though.
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
You're not arguing his talent
but what the writers will vote for? Well then the argument is pointless, the writers are wrong far too often to give their choices any credence.
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
First off, even with his statistics, he’s not a hall of famer. He’s a very good player. He had very good stats. But the thing is, Hall of Fames should be left for a very small amount of elite players. Olerud was very very good, but not elite to the point where he’s a hall of famer.
He was very good in areas like OBP, BA, among other stats, but I can’t imagine John Olerud going to HOF. His numbers aren’t as good as Mex, and if Mex is argued by many to be undeserving, than Olerud is even less deserving…
Mex should be in
Olerud should at least be considered. He his worth 14 more WAR than Jim Rice and like 30 that Mazeroski, very similar to Hank Greenberg and other hall of fame players
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
We’ll agree to disagree, but I just can’t see Olerud getting in. He was very good. He should be in the Toronto Blue Jays HOF, but I can’t see him being considered a HOF. He was VERY GOOD in MANY statistical categories, but he had no category that made him outstanding…
Neither does Jim Rice
unless fear is a statistical category
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
Well don't use
The recent poor selection by the BBWAA to justify someone else. Johnny O was better than Jim Rice but he isn’t quite a hall of famer.
I don't think he should be in
but he’s not a definite no.
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
I'm just saying he shouldn't be dismissed
He’s a fringe hall of famer. I just wouldn’t go by BBWAA standards for voting in hall of fame players
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
I probably wouldn't either.
I just think he SHOULD be considered. But then again, I’m also a crusader for Robin Ventura too (not for HOF, necessarily, but for people to remember as a very good player)
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
Murphy's pop
I think Murphy could have more power than we are giving him credit for seems like that last two weeks he has been hitting some doubles and home runs. When he learns how to pul the ball a bit better I can se him getting maybe 25 HRs a season
Random
but holy crap when did this site get so active. I leave for like a few months to rededicate myself to my video game addiction and it’s like I can’t keep up anymore.
yahoo affiliation grabs a lot of eyeballs
"If on-base percentage is so important, then why don't they put it on the scoreboard?"
When MetsBlog closed the comments section?
Just a guess.
"He's definitely mixing it into his repertoire. That's French for 'repertoire' " - Keith Hernandez
by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Aug 7, 2009 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions
I think Cerrone has been terribly misunderstood
When he makes an assessment, he is speaking on a strictly superficial level because this is all he is capable of, so , yes, when he says
Murphy is an Olerud/Magadan type, what he means is that Murphy is a lefty hitting white boy who plays first base. By the same token, he is also very much the kind of player that Eddie Murphy was in as much as they both play first base and they both have the word “murphy” on their backs.
Oddly, though...
He’s a much less effective cyborg policeman than (the late) Alex J. Murphy.
[The key is in CBAR (Criminals Butchered Above Replacement).]
by LeiterMilnerFasterStronger on Aug 7, 2009 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions
santos and murphy
is it that bad an idea to let these guys go another year? Murph as our 1b and santos as a platoon/backup catcher (depending on the off season)?
I mean… i see what you all say with Murphy, but his defense has been great, and he is young with a nice swing and a good work ethic. I know… thats basically saying he has grisson… but… its not. While he probably wont turn into an all-star, he may give us nice numbers for cheap at a position that isnt full of new options this off season.
as the metsgeek article says, santos is playing well. Not to mention so much of the catcher position is not hitting. Its what they do behind the plate. Santos has a gun (not that important, but after watching all those years of Mike P, its nice to throw a runner out) and Darling always maintains that he is a good receiver (i wouldnt know… i trust him).
I agree with you. I like Murph a lot, and I think, while he’ll never have the expected power for a 1B, I think he can be a very useful player. And with Santos, while I don’t think he’s as good as he’s been so far, if he can put up league average (for a catcher) numbers, why not? Not like most catchers are good hitters…..outside of McCann and Mauer
I think it's that bad of an idea
Murphy’s 24 there’s not much more development left, more than likely what we’re getting now is what we’re going to get, which isn’t good enough to be a teams starting 1b. And Santos has a gun? I think you need to reeavluate your definition of gun he has some of the worst thrown runners out numbers in the league.
And on plays at the plate
he’s closer to the pitcher’s mound than he is to home plate
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
really?
i admit that i didnt look it up, I am going off what I have seen (i know… heresy! Hang me by my neck)
It just seems that every time I see santos throw, its a seed right to the bag. And also, isnt SB numbers much more a reflection of the pitcher then the catcher? As most runners tend to steal off the pitcher and not the catchers arm?
24 is it for a player? Really? I find that so hard to believe. If a players prime is considered the end of his 20’s, how is it impossible for a player to develop past 24?
Also, which I guess is a question for the hard core stat guys… does work ethic and approach to the game (including a players swing) not count for anything?
24 isnt it for a player
But a player isn’t suddenly going to explode after that. Murphy will probably improve but the problem is if this is how good he is at 24 then his prime years aren’t going to be particularly impressive.
Disagreed entirely. At 24, Keith Hernandez was a .255/.355/.389. That’s above the average, but not even close to where he ended up…
But Murphy doesn't have a high prospect track record
He never had plus tools in the minors, doesn’t have a position. I like the guy, but I don’t see him becoming a very good ball player
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
But it's above average
the point is at 24 Murphy isn’t anywhere near that. At 24 Hernandez showed an insane eye and ability to get walk, hence the .355 OBP despite only hitting .255 which is a pretty impressive feat. At 24 Murphy hasn’t really shown anything like that.
But the skills were there,
Keith put up a .980 OPS season as a 20 year old in AAA prior. Also, in the season you mentioned, he had 82 walks to 62 Ks, I’m guessing that he had bad luck in the BABIP department which flucates year to year.
Murph for his career is at .271 and a .343 OBP. I’d say in the equivalent of just ONE full season, being able to put up a .343 cumulative OBP is pretty solid…
I think your arguing your own point
no is saying he isn’t “solid,” he’s alright just not good enough to be a starter, you’re trying to compare him to Keith or Olerud and it just doesn’t make sense as he isn’t even close to their ability. Down below you said it’d be “idiotic to bring in a mediocre veteran 1B who’s going to struggle at Citi for extra money” but no one said anything like that. You also said you dont want to bring in “prototypical slugger who K’s a lot at 1B” but again no one said that, I think you’re just being argumentative and ignoring some of the more rational arguments being presented to you.
My argument is that he is a similar style hitter to Olerud. He is a good defense(at 1B), lesser power, good doubles hitter that draws some walks. He’s no Olerud, but he is the same STYLE hitter.
My argument is that it makes no sense to NOT start him at 1B next year, because what better choice is there?
Nick Johnson?
Russel Branyan? Nick Evans? Adam LaRoche? (Though no way in hell would I WANT to sign LaRoche, he’s a better option)
Those are ALL better choices.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
Branyan and LaRoche go against the idea of a getting gap hitters for Citi Field. Evans is no better than Murphy, which is why I recommended a Murph/Evans Platoon.
I've been going with the Evans/Davis thing for a while now.
Fact is, Murphy’s not a first baseman. He’s a Mark DeRosa part 2 who SHOULD be a super sub, playing semi-regularly at multiple positions to give guys breaks.
I don’t think you need to get gap hitters for Citi. Lefty pull hitters like Delgado (when healthy) and Utley made Citi their bitch. What you really need is flyball/strikeout pitchers to take advantage of the dimensions.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
Honest question: what positions do you have Murph playing? He’s been pretty good defensively at 1B while learning on the job. He doesn’t have the power, but I think we could get by with a Murph/Evans platoon.
As for the lefty pull hitters, I guess that theory would work, but I’m not sure those big strikeout guys are the choice either.
Second base
I think he would thrive there with a little work
by KeithsMoustache on Aug 7, 2009 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Considering Branyan has a .361 OBP...
I’m not so worried about strikeouts. Branyan’s been worth 2.5 wins already this year, so he’d definitely be worth the dough.
And Murph can play LF, 1B, 3B, and 2B (if they’d let him develop in AAA for a bit).
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
Ok. That I can see. He’s never gonna play 3B in the majors(unless he finds another team), but I’ve been a proponent of him learning 2B, in addition to getting more of a chance in LF for a while now.
Your plan is growing on me.
It's a fine line between plugging holes from the inside
and creating depth. We want to do the second, by ALSO signing multiple cheap, high reward free agents like Branyan, Johnson, Ivan Rodriguez, Mike Cameron, Andruw Jones, and others but also taking the plunge on big guys we might need like signing someone like Lackey, Holliday, or Bedard, or trading for someone like Carl Crawford or Alex Rios. If Minaya could put all of these things together with a balanced amounts of each, we’d be contending for the WS every year.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
keith is in a different world then Murph
not a fair comparison.
I sometimes get the feeling from the more stat oriented that they demand every player to be a potential all star.
No, but usually the more stat oriented would
prefer an average player from the easiest defensive position in baseball. Still, I’m on the Ike Davis trolley, so realistically my fake team would probably have a Murph/Evans platoon at first next year in order to keep the spot open for Ike in 2011. I’m assuming that Ike plays pretty well in 2011 leading the Mets to a championship before revealing himself to being the bringer of the apocolyspe in 2012.
thats a fair idea
and i didnt mean offense to my comment. I very much enjoy the stats and appreciate them (and wish we had a FO that did too). I just refuse (probably ignorantly) that a baseball players development track is set in stone at 24.
I think Gina's point about 24
wasn’t that a player is locked in at 24 more so than the vast majority of players are pretty much are who you think they will be at that age. There are exceptions to every rule, such as Randy Johnson, Jeff Kent, Jamie Moyer et al, but if a GM were to bank on Murphy making a huge jump in ability, while possible, it wouldn’t be a great thought process like hitting on 17 in black jack or trading for Jeff Francoeur.
I said before Olerud was a fringe HOFer.
Maybe he’s a little less than fringe HOFer, but I continue to maintain that Keith should be in there, no questions asked.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
You think so? I think there’s a year or two more where he can develop.
And also, I’ll say it again, right now he’s being forced to deal with position switches, inconsistent time in the lineup and ZERO protection in the lineup. His numbers would be better if he were in a favorable situation.
Not to mention that despite all that, in the past 2 weeks he’s hitting .320. He’s showing you the hitting ability we expected all along now that he’s getting constant at bats. I think Murphy’s got a good shot to be a .280 BA, .350 OBP, 15 HR, solid fielding 1B. I’d give him a chance.
The past 2 weeks isnt really a sample size worth noting
you can probably pick 2 weeks out of any mlb players season and find one where they look good. At 24 Murphy just hasn’t shown any reasons to think he’s going to make huge strides forward. He’s about what most projection systems would have expected him to be.
plus the line you mentioned
Is kind of sorry from a first basemen, it’s not awful but a team with championship hopes should either have better or should be getting way way above average production from multiple other positions. We’ll probably get that from Wright, and Reyes, possibly Beltran i don’t know anything about his injury, but not enough to completely off-set that line plus the awful production we get from the corners, catcher and who knows what we’ll get from 2nd base. Unless you think they’re going to bring in all-star caliber players for both corner outfield spots that’s not good enough.
You can argue that, but the fact is that we saw it in 131 AB last season. We have seen he has the ability, and you can’t possibly argue that his statistical drop is at least partially due to the awful situation he’s in right now. He’s basically forced to be a cleanup or 5 hitter in a lineup, with no protection, most players would struggle.
And I hate the perception that certain positions need a certain set of statistics. I’d rather have a guy who knows how to play the game, can be a situational hitter, and has the contact/OBP ability that Murph does, as opposed to the prototypical slugger who K’s a lot at 1B….
131 AB is hardly a sample size
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
But added with this year’s stats, he’s been solid. Not spectacular, but I don’t see someone else to replace him with at 1B that’s worth the money…..Aubrey Huff for example would probably give you a .250/.315/.400 at Citi….
I think a Nick Evans/Ike Davis platoon
would put up better numbers, but if we get a Matt Holliday, and a healthy Reyes and Beltran, we could live with Murphy
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
How about a Murph/Evans platoon?
I don’t think rushing another prospect from AA straight to MLB is a bad idea.
AA to MLB isn't really a crazy jump
Most players in AAA are just retreads not real prospects. Most players don’t stay there for an extended amount of time.
How’s it worked for F-Mart, Evans, and Parnell?
All of them have struggled at the MLB level. Tells me something. Obviously it’s just my opinion, but I’d rather give them like half a season at the AAA level.
F! is 20 and rushed every level
While Ike was a first round college pick playing extremely well in A+/AA this year. Maybe a Murphy/Evans platoon to begin the year and see how Davis and Murphy play and see if maybe we need to switch em.
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
Well Parnell wasn't that good to begin with
And he didnt struggle early this year he was just overused. F-mart was rushed at every level like Evan_s said and is way young.
Err wasn't much of a prospect to begin with
At 24 in AA he was a borderline non prospect. he definitely wasn’t rushed.
There's a difference between 20 year old F!
and collegiate Ike Davis.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
I'm not sure what the last part has to do with anything
It’s that if you have guys like that at every position you’re team isn’t going to do much. Positions don’t have to have certain statistics but if you’re going to have a light hitting first basemen then if you want to compete you need to be supplementing that offense at other positions. It’s not that certain positions should have set stats it’s that as a team all together you should reach a certain offensive point I guess the word would be, it doesn’t matter how you get there. But when there’s usually so many first basemen available that can give you better offense than what Murphy can give whats the point of keeping the poorer offensive one.
Plus Murphy hasn’t really shown an OBP/walk ability. He showed an ability to make contact which has been proven to be incredibly fluky, the mets own statistician did a presentation about the lack of correlation year to year in contact rates, let alone sample sizes as small as 131. His walk rate was never particularly impressive in the minors or otherwise.
Name some 1B’s that you want next year? If you want Aubrey Huff or Nick Johnson, fine, but I think it’d be idiotic to bring in a mediocre veteran 1B who’s going to struggle at Citi for extra money
I'd take Johnson
if its a cheap short-term deal and he agrees to live in a bionic bubble while not on the field (including when hes in the dugout).
I wouldn’t. He’ll ask for 2 years, at least 6 million per….not worth it since he won’t stay on the field….
Also...
… Delgado as a seatwarmer for Ike Davis (say) is another option for next year that’s less terrible than most. (The downside, of course, we’ve pretty much seen.)
by LeiterMilnerFasterStronger on Aug 7, 2009 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Why is everyone so quick to rush prospects? Evans hasn’t even had a full season at AA, and he’s already ready to be a MLB starter?
I don’t buy that.
Evans?
He said davis, and these guys were college players they’re drafted with the expectations they’ll have lower ceilings but develop fast. Otherwise teams would just take prep bats since they usually have higher ceilings.
I meant Davis. My mistake. Again, it’s a difference in thought process. I personally don’t think a guy should spend less than 2 seasons in the minors.
I can semi agree with that
But if he’s talking about 2011, which since he said use Delgado as a seat warmer thats what I would think. Davis would be in the minors for 2.5 years.
But still when a team drafts players with their selling points being a quick arrival, not their upside, then it’s not really rushing them.
It’s arguable what their selling point on Davis was…One could argue it was pure power, not necessarily quick arrival.
And I don’t know if Delgado is a good choice, considering he’ll be 38, has a bad hip, and has had half of a good season in the past 2 years.
I'm pretty certain there's not really an argument about Davis's selling point
Pretty much every scouting report, and any report related to the mets draft, had him pegged as a quick mover. There was never anything about huge offensive potential or power potential. if anything there were a a lot of reports that said his offense may never be more than average at the pros for his position, along with worries that it may not translate at all, but he’d move quickly and probably had a high floor to go with the lowish ceiling.
AND...
… what I’m saying is far from that. I’m saying Delgado’s not an awful option— considering other FA options, and assuming we’re not going to get creative in trade— for NEXT YEAR.
Assuming similar progress for the rest of this year and next year, I’m setting Davis’ play-by date (roughly) at Spring Training 2011.
by LeiterMilnerFasterStronger on Aug 7, 2009 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Hmm...
… does bubble-wrap count as an acceptable uniform “performance fabric?”
I like Johnson, and you can hedge the injury issue a bit with performance-incentive-load. (If you sign Johnson, and he goes down, we’re in the situation for which you’re advocating, anyway, lj.)
by LeiterMilnerFasterStronger on Aug 7, 2009 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions
This is true, but if you sign Johnson, and stick Murphy in the “inconsistent at bat” phase, he’ll never even have a chance to develop.
But if we're trying to win
We’re not really in a position to give playing time to developing guys who were mid-tier prospects to begin with.
Then what do you do? I mean, I’d rather give Murphy a shot to develop and not win for a year or two than think Nick Johnson is gonna help us win anything next year.
So, waitaminutewaitaminutehee-yah...
You’re mentally punting on next year?
by LeiterMilnerFasterStronger on Aug 7, 2009 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Not at all.
But I don’t think Aubrey Huff or Nick Johnson makes us a winner next year. So if Huff or Johnson is going to be our only move, we’re not gonna win anyway, might as well give Murph a chance.
For your consideration.
Johnson, when healthy— a decent-sized “if,” but one that also heavily discounts him, cost-wise— is a better baseball player than healthy Carlos Delgado circa 2008.
Assuming requisite performance in other aspects (starting pitching, corner-OF), minimal backsliding by folk like Wright and Reyes, and no Great-White-in-RI-level crush of injury, a team with Johnson rather than Delgado at 1B should do just as well if not better than previous iterations of the same baseball-playing squadron.
by LeiterMilnerFasterStronger on Aug 7, 2009 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Yup
If people really want to find the poor man’s John Olerud—-it is Nick Johnson no Daniel Murphy. Daniel Murphy is more like the destitute man’s Nick Johnson.
To be fair...
… I’d say that Nick Johnson is more like the non-milk-drinking-man’s Johnny O.
—Eat your prayers/say your milk!
by LeiterMilnerFasterStronger on Aug 7, 2009 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions
The question is if it’s worth it to gamble the potential of this team on the health of Nick Johnson.
I’d rather give a Murph/Evans platoon a shot.
Especially
If we use the money we saved on starting pitchers not named Oliver Perez or Tony Armas Jr.
What pitchers are available
And I’m almost certain there is 0 chance we spend money on a free agent pitcher, unless it’s a end of the rotation incredibly cheap guy. I’m pretty sure when we signed Ollie to that contract we were letting go of any chance of spending money on top or even mid-tier pitching in the future.
Well, Bedard and Lackey are available.
But I’m not breaking the bank on either of those guys. I get them only if I can get a good deal.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
I'd go for Lackey
but Bedard’s shoulder scares me.
"If I ever decide to do a book, I've already got the title...The bases were loaded and so was I."
-Jim Fregosi
by Stephen Schmidt on Aug 7, 2009 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Also,
Joel Pinero, Justin Duchscherer, Jason Marquis, Rich Harden, Doug Davis, Brad Penny are available.
Johnson is an All-Star calibur player when healthy (which was probably last in 2005)
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
Exactly. I don’t wanna risk next year’s chance of winning on a guy who hasn’t been healthy in 3 years.
Thing is, I wouldn't be surprised if he could only command a very modest salary, less than $5 mil.
That’s a risk I’d absolutely take.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
Murphy should not be counted on to be our starting 1B man...period.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
Seriously
I could only afford to spend that kind of time on AA while I was still employed. Now that I’m unemployed, I don’t have as much time to spend on thread commenting like this.
Does this make any sense to anyone?
"He's definitely mixing it into his repertoire. That's French for 'repertoire' " - Keith Hernandez
by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Aug 7, 2009 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh I guess I do get it.
I was a lot more active, posting during school when i was not paying attention to class.
Nah man, I totally get this,
I’ve commented a good amount and it’s solely because I’m stuck in the office.
yup most of my posts come from lab or office
its either that or doing work
by KeithsMoustache on Aug 8, 2009 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions
Makes perfect sense
I probably would’ve kept up if I hadn’t been on a conference call from 2 to 4 or so
In unrelated but related news...
Alex Rios has been claimed off waivers…
Any chance it was the Mets who did it?
Me too
but Omar is not smart enough to do that
by Jadden Hopkins on Aug 7, 2009 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, the other thing is that EVERY team in the AL, the Nationals, Reds, Pirates, Diamondbacks, and Padres would all need to pass….
He can play center...He's a big upgrade from Melky
"If I ever decide to do a book, I've already got the title...The bases were loaded and so was I."
-Jim Fregosi
by Stephen Schmidt on Aug 7, 2009 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions
He's only been a part time player,
and Yankee stadium is a joke. He’d probably drop at least 60 points off of that playing in toronto.
"If I ever decide to do a book, I've already got the title...The bases were loaded and so was I."
-Jim Fregosi
by Stephen Schmidt on Aug 7, 2009 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions
I think he'd get by most of them.
Maybe the White Sox or Yankees made a claim, I don’t see anyone else in front of the Mets as a fit.
"If I ever decide to do a book, I've already got the title...The bases were loaded and so was I."
-Jim Fregosi
by Stephen Schmidt on Aug 7, 2009 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions
I can’t see the Yankees. They already have Swisher, Matsui, Damon, Gardner(when he comes back), and Melky…
Rios can play a good center field, espesciall at the t-ball park in the bronx.
He’d definetely be an upgrade there.
"If I ever decide to do a book, I've already got the title...The bases were loaded and so was I."
-Jim Fregosi
by Stephen Schmidt on Aug 7, 2009 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions
He would have a real high range factor
In the tee-ball park in citi field, where the kids win the Show 2009
But if he set foot in citi,
I’m sure he’d break a leg and limit his range.
"If I ever decide to do a book, I've already got the title...The bases were loaded and so was I."
-Jim Fregosi
by Stephen Schmidt on Aug 7, 2009 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions
I suggest
putting a slide into a ball pit instead of dugout stairs. I never see any kids get hurt at Mcdonald’s
I once saw a kid break his leg falling off one of those slides.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
No it wouldn't
The Mets could pay all of his remaining salary this season and it’s still under 2 million. He doesn’t get expensive until next season.
"If I ever decide to do a book, I've already got the title...The bases were loaded and so was I."
-Jim Fregosi
by Stephen Schmidt on Aug 7, 2009 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Extensions count from the year they start.
2009 is the last year of Rios old contract, and is counted that way.
"If I ever decide to do a book, I've already got the title...The bases were loaded and so was I."
-Jim Fregosi
by Stephen Schmidt on Aug 7, 2009 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions
It's the same reason Miguel Cabrera didn't count as heavily for the Tigers until this season.
"If I ever decide to do a book, I've already got the title...The bases were loaded and so was I."
-Jim Fregosi
by Stephen Schmidt on Aug 7, 2009 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Where did you find that 2009 is the last year of his old contract?
According to Cot, he signed his extension in 2008, valid from 2009 to 2015
- 7 years/$69.835M (2008-14), plus 2015 club option
* signed extension with Toronto 4/4/08, re-working 2008 deal signed 2/5/08 ($3.5M signing bonus remains, 2008 salary reduced from $1.335M to $0.735M)
* 08:$0.735M, 09:$5.9M, 10:$9.7M, 11:$12M, 12:$12M, 13:$12.5M, 14:$12.5M, 15:$13.5M club option ($1M buyout)
* full no-trade clause, 2009-10
* limited no-trade clause, 2011 – end of deal (may block trades to 6 clubs)
- 1 year/$4.835M (2008)
* re-signed 2/5/08 (avoided arbitration, $5.65M-$4.535M)
You're correct on that point.
I had read an article dealing with the Red Sox extensions last winter which mentioned Rios as an example of the extension not counting towards the tax last season…I was reading it as having an effect on this season. The Mets are still well shy of the luxury tax level for this season though.
http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/mets/2009/01/
"If I ever decide to do a book, I've already got the title...The bases were loaded and so was I."
-Jim Fregosi
by Stephen Schmidt on Aug 7, 2009 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm pretty certain that's incorrect
He calculates the lt numbers wrong. He uses the 2008 value of the player contracts rather than the average annual value. As far as I know we’re well less than 10 million away from it.
Why didn't the Mets try and trade for him if was just gonna be put on waivers?
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
Speaking of Corner Outfielders
Magglio is a freeagent after this year, although he hasn’t been the same hitter this year (Canseco probably was right about him) do you think if we could get him cheap it might be worth signing him?
I'd take him for backup money
not really interested in him as a starter
King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president
I guess it entirely depends on whether we(the front office) think we have a chance to compete
If they don’t, which I honestly think is the more reasonable decision, than a one year stop gap like Magglio makes sense. If they do then they’re gonna be scrambling to fill a lot of holes with not a lot of resources/options.
Why wouldn't we compete?
King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president
Assuming Beltran and Reyes come back from injury
We have four stars on this team, some adequte starters, a resonable pen, some holes, and a little promise in AA. I don’t see a reason why we can’t compete, the NL isn’t that great.
As much as I hate to admit it, the Phils have 4 stars, a better rotation (with Lee), a similar pen, and plenty of minor league promise. We will have trouble winning the division….
Wild Card, maybe?
If we add a real #2 starter.I think our rotation we can contend with them
Johan Hamels
Lackey? Lee
Niese Happ
Pelf Moyer
Ollie Blanton. That’s pretty even if you ask me
by Jadden Hopkins on Aug 7, 2009 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions
You do realize that Niese is a question mark after what happened to him, right ?.
Why not go for the throat and take a shot at Halladay in the offseason ?.
Is that REALLY the smartest way to spend our money?
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
Better spending it this way than let them invest it
Cause you know what happens when they invest it.
Just know, if there's ever a riot at Citi Field and Oliver Perez was the starter, I started the riot.
The problem is I don't think there's any chance that happens
I think Ollie contract is gonna be the last big pitcher contract we hand out for a few years. Anyway I don’t think we can’t contend. I just think we’re going to be looking at a team not much better, if not worse, than what we started this year with and just as susceptible to one or two unlucky injuries.
4 Stars?
Utley is a superstar, Ibanez is playing way over his head, Rollins is not as good as he has been the last three years (in which he has been a star), though he his better than he has been this year, but I’ll give you Howard even if he is overrated
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
That's the key
All it takes to compete in NL is about 5 quality everyday players, health and 3 quality starters (which we don’t really have at this point, but could rectify if we were smart). But that is a Ruthian sized “if” for this team.
Regarding Rios, he really sucks this year for whatever reason, I keep almost cutting him, his ops is especially average. The price could be fairly low on him, but there’s a misconception that he’s a star caliber player, because he’s clearly not. His doubles are always inflated because of the turf, too.
This could get me crucified, but what about this trade idea: Fmart and another solid prospect or 2 for Markakis? Any chance the O’s would go for this? I know he’s only 20, but Fmart was so unimpressive this year. Just wildly overmatched. I like Markakis, and strongly believe Fmart’s max upside would be a Markakis-lite.
Okay
you’re twisting my arm, Fmart and Francoer – final offer :)
Riccardi might be dumb enough, because Frenchy loves the game, unlike Adam Dunn, ha-ha.
whoops
Sorry, not Riccardi, obviously if it’s to the O’s. It’s been a long week and happy hour approaches. How about Fmart and Meijia for Markakis? They’d have to think about that, right?
Frenchy and Parnell for Markakis
try to Out Omar them
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
I wouldn't think about it
I would hang up the phone if i was the O’s. I’d want the farm for Markakis.
Markakis is awfully good
but as Gina says, I’d hang up the phone on that offer if I were the O’s GM. They don’t have any reason to trade him.
I asked this on another thread
how does SB/CS get incorporated into wOBA, like what is the linear weight for them? I know it’s .22*SB and .38*CS in batting runs
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
If some team is desperate enough
why shouldn’t/wouldn’t they trade Wagner? If Stockmen says he’s nothing, then he’s nothing.
"I was so frustrated [Saturday], I [could have said] anything," ~Oliver Perez
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