What To Expect From Josh Thole
by Eric Simon on Sep 1, 2009 5:15 PM EDT
45 comments
Josh Thole has been called up to join the Mets as rosters expanded today to accommodate up to forty players. We've been on the Thole bandwagon for a long time, and lately there have been concerns that he might not even be added to the 40-man roster in time to be protected from this Winter's Rule 5 Draft. Those fears were finally assuaged when Thole was added to the big league roster for tonight's game with the Rockies. Sam and Mark will eventually get to their full prospect report on Thole, so I'm just going to take a quick look at his performance this season to see what we might expect out of him.
In brief, Josh Thole is a 23-year-old catcher who bats lefty and throws righty. He is hitting .329/.396/.424 this season in 439 plate appearances with Double-A Binghamton. Jerry Manuel has hinted that Thole might be limited to playing against righties, which of course doesn't make any sense because:
(a) Brian Schneider has no future with the Mets, and
(b) Omir Santos's future is as a backup (I hope), and
(c) Thole might be part of the answer and should get exposure to all pitchers, not to mention
(d) Thole is hitting .333/.392/.395 vs lefties and .327/.397/.436 against righties.
Thole has shown little power in the minors but a very good eye at the plate. What power he has displayed has mostly come against righties, with an ISO of .201 compared to just .062 against lefties. That, I suppose, is the main argument for platooning him (despite no platoon split in his on-base percentage), but I'd still argue for playing him as much as possible since he's going to be on the team anyway.
To dig a little deeper into Thole's offensive profile, he doesn't even seem to be displaying the rudiments of power. While his doubles rate is so-so, he hits very few line drives (12.3% in 2009), so it may just be that his batting stance and approach at the plate are more conducive to getting on base than mashing the ball. His BABIP is .348 this year, which isn't at all supported by his line drive rate, so there's some concern that his batting average might tank given worse luck. If his batting average drops off even a little bit his now-mediocre slugging will be even less impressive.
For a quickie idea of what his Double-A batting line might look like in the majors, we can use MinorLeagueSplits.com's minor league equivalent adjustment, which pegs Thole as a .254/.307/.322 hitter, which is pretty awful and not far off from what I expected. I can't imagine we'll be able to draw any meaningful conclusions from the 50 or so plate appearances he's likely to get in September, but I've been a fan of his for a while now and it's nice to see him get a bit of recognition from the organization. Barring some unforeseen (and likely unsustainable) offensive explosion this month I think it's safe to say he'll be back in the minors in 2010. Nevertheless, with very little to justify watching Mets games these days, Thole gives us another reason to tune in. When he's playing, that is.
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I saw a Jerry quotation
that they were auditioning santos this September for the starting job next year. Which seemed odd. of course, jerry also said he wante to see Thole because he ehars he is a gamer. Who knows what he is thinking.
I read a couple of other disturbing things last 2 days. The mets bagged the Fall instructional league to save cash ($300k or so?) and also may only make 1 or 2 other call-ups to save money. Whatever the reason, they are really nickel and diming it now. Maybe they have to.
by wobatus on Sep 1, 2009 6:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
neither are true
mets aren’t calling people up b/c there’s no reason to add promising players to the 40 man roster for an extra year.
and they are moving the instructional league to the DR, because most of the other teams are moving from the area they are in.
by firejerrymanuel on Sep 1, 2009 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
thanks
and I suppose that is true re: 40 man, but plenty of teams ignore that anyway and spend away. But may as well save the bucks I suppose. Flowers was not on the White Sox 40 man, although I guess they traded Contrearas and Thome so they added him and called him up.
As far as the Jerry quotation about Omir, god forbid I did see that.
by wobatus on Sep 1, 2009 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
what teams ignore adding players to the 40 and spend away?
Maybe they ignore it when the players will be up soon anyway and adding them t the 40/starting their clocks is inevitable but there’s no reason to call up players and put them on the 40 when they’re not ready.
by Gina on Sep 1, 2009 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
an example
Why would the Giants have called up pablo sandoval last year? They weren’t going anywhere. He had just been promoted from A ball to AA that season. He got called up. Flowers was just placed on the 40 man as he was called up today. he was in AA a month ago and K’ing in a third of his AAA at bats. These are not even teams really in contention. The Red Sox called up Josh Reddick mid-year from AA, although he was good but not great in AA and they could have called up Chris Carter. I don’t think Mike Dunn was on the Yankee 40 man until he got the call.
You have to start the clock sometime, as you say. It often is a question of when they are ready. But you are right, it isn’t as common as I suggested, and the Mets don’t have a lot of guys languishing where you would really say it’s time. Of course, the Red Sox or Yanks are loaded and can call guys up and not get too burned. The Mets used to be thought of as a team that could do that kind of thing, but I think now they are a bit more close-fisted.
by wobatus on Sep 1, 2009 11:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Giants do it again
I hear they are bringing up Posey and he was not on the 40 man. Of course, he may well be ready but I don[t imagine they should be starting the clock on him either, but I don’t know, maybe that was part of his deal with them. And of course, emulating the Giants may not be wise, although they have done ok this year, and wish we had their young starters.
by wobatus on Sep 2, 2009 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
also, by calling people up
it starts the arb clock
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
by firejerrynow on Sep 1, 2009 6:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah
In the long run it is the better move. You have to start them up on the clock some time, but I suppose not in a losing casue.
I am just being selfish and would prefer to watch Ruben Tejada, Mejia or Ike Davis and don’t think it would hurt to ditch Andy Green or Takahashi.
Should have thought before passing along tidbits from the New York Post.
by wobatus on Sep 1, 2009 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well it's usually better to wait
till they’re somewhere near ready to start their clocks, otherwise you’re just screwing yourself over.
by Gina on Sep 1, 2009 7:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Back to the main topic
Thole hit 5 homers in FSL didn’t he? Kinda odd he could only muster 1 this year.
by wobatus on Sep 1, 2009 6:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yup, that's one of the stranger things
I think it speaks to the evolution of his approach. His power was non-existent in the SAL. It seems plausible that he got sick of taking big swings and coming up empty early on in his FSL season and gradually shifted his approach more and more towards contact and getting on base, and since that worked so well, he took it even further this year. The power isn’t there now, but he’s not a small guy. I still wouldn’t be shocked if a few years from now he has a stretch where he surprises himself by hitting a few bombs and re-incorporates trying to generate some pop into his approach. Still doubtful he’ll be any kind of consistent double-digit homer guy, but I think he’ll still eventually be living closer to 10 in a year than 0.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on Sep 1, 2009 7:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Giambi wasn't a power guy originally
though looking back we all know where he got his power
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
by firejerrynow on Sep 1, 2009 7:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Crap
I wrote this same post for Metsgeek this afternoon
by Sokojoe on Sep 1, 2009 6:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think it is quite apparent that Thole is the 2nd coming of Joe Mauer and we should expect no less.
Ha but in all seriousness Thole kind of reminds of Brian Schneider in terms of his patience at the plate and his limited power (although Id say even Schneider probably has more power than him. However Thole should hit for average and probably will be a little worse defensively.
by Adam F. on Sep 1, 2009 6:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
If anyone is interested
Brooklyn-Lowell Game
on radio here
http://980wcap.com/player/
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
by firejerrynow on Sep 1, 2009 7:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Oh Eric
Logic is the flaw in your reasoning of Jerry. Just bang your head against a wall several times and then his managerial decisions will make sense.
by cuseindahuse on Sep 1, 2009 8:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Just out of curiosity...
Why the bandwagon love for Thole, when you give a pretty persuasive argument that he sucks, and will always suck, and may suck even worse than expected?
I mean, I’m rooting for the guy, but after reading your analysis, you’ve convinced me that I’m an idiot for rooting for him.
by Mex_17 on Sep 1, 2009 10:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
do you understand
the distinction between present and future?
by firejerrymanuel on Sep 1, 2009 11:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He plays a position where sucking is a lot more tolerable
and is the best catcher in the Mets’ minor league system. He has a shot at being a major league contributor, which would help this team going forward. Spending precious $$ on some crappy veteran catcher (Molina, Kendall) could be avoided.
by James Kannengieser on Sep 2, 2009 12:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good review
This is why Thole is probably still not a top 10 prospect in the system. And, I honestly think Pena will have the better career, so it’s still debatable for me whether Thole should rank over him, either.
But, Thole will be a useful big leaguer of some sort. He won’t draw as many walks vs. MLB pitching, and his production there will likely fall to a .700-.740 OPS type. He’ll also likely develop platoon splits vs. LHP. That’s not bad for a catcher, but he’s probably still a bit below average defensively as well. All in all he makes a good LH platoon and bench guy. Santos is a better option as a starter, but Thole is an ideal guy to potentially back him up next year. He doesn’t really have much upside from that, so it doesn’t make too much sense to leave him in the minors for more PA once his defense is passable.
Thus, the main thing to watch in his MLB debut is his defense. If he’s holding his own there, he could have a spot on the roster at some point next season. Maybe even from the get go, replacing Schneider.
by acerimusdux on Sep 2, 2009 12:31 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
santos is a better option
as a starter
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by firejerrymanuel on Sep 2, 2009 12:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
haha
Santos is better at nothing.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Sep 2, 2009 12:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Santos is a +18 defender this year
Fangraphs has him +0.9 WAR this year without counting defense. He’s nothing that special, but for his prime years right now, 28-30, he’s probably about an average starter, +1.5-2.5 WAR, even with a .300 wOBA. Figure for 400 PA, even with only +10 defense, that’s about -10 batting, +10 defense, +13 replacement, +8 positional, for about 21 RAR.
Thole can be a better bat, but probably won’t be a better overall option for the next couple of years. You will need to platoon Thole with a guy like Santos for maximum value there.
by acerimusdux on Sep 3, 2009 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't see how Thole isn't a top ten prospect in our system
Who would you rank above him? F-mart, Flores, Marte, Havens, Holt, Davis, Meija, maybe the other pitcher who’s name I just forgot how to spell and then who?
by Gina on Sep 2, 2009 1:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And whoa, no way you rank him below Marte.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Sep 2, 2009 1:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wasn't naming guys i'd put over him just guys who would be in our top ten
But I don’t think I’d rank Thole over Marte just because of all the questions regarding his defense and whether his contact skills can hold up, and even if they do how much his lack of power will hurt him.
by Gina on Sep 2, 2009 1:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But still
Marte has not been good at all this year. He’s improved a little lately, but a .239/.279/.338 line from an 18 year old corner infielder in single A is not more impressive than what Josh Thole’s been doing in Double A.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Sep 2, 2009 8:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He also implied he'd consider ranking Pena ahead
Plus Familia and I imagine most likely Tejada, but maybe Allen or Nieuwenhuis. I’d disagree, but those are the only guys I could see a case for.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on Sep 2, 2009 2:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Tejada
I could see Tejada as possible. He is younger and apparently a good fielder. And 4 homers, what a slugger.
Niese still is rookie eligible, no? 39 innings. I’d say he still fits the prospect label.
And not that I’d rank him over Thole, but here is good place to point out Eric Niesen’s August numbers. 27 innings, 35 strikeouts, 12 walks, 1 homer allowed. Not too shabby.
Anyway, if you did a top ten sans Thole, I’d guess it would be:
Fernando Martinez, Jenrry Mejia, Ike Davis, Reese Havens, Jon Niese, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Wilmer Flores, Jeurys Familia, Brad Holt and Ruben Tejada. I’d likely still slot him above Kirk and Familia, maybe Tejada.
by wobatus on Sep 2, 2009 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just my opinion - top 30
- B+ L OF Fernando Martinez
- B+ R SP Jenrry Mejia
- B L 1B Ike Davis
- B R 3B Wilmer Flores
- B L SP Jon Niese
- B R SP Brad Holt
- B- L OF Kirk Nieuwenhuis
- B- L 2B Reese Havens
- B- R SP Jeurys Familia
- C+ R SS Ruben Tejada
- C+ R SP Kyle Allen
- C+ L CA Josh Thole
- C+ L SP Stephen Matz
- C+ R 3B Jefry Marte
- C+ R RF Cesar Puello
- C+ L SP Eric Niesen
- C+ L SP Juan Urbina
- C+ R CA Francisco Pena
- C+ R RP Brant Rustich
- C+ S RF Carlos Guzman
- C+ R 3B Aderlin Rodriguez
- C L SP Rob Carson
- C R SP Dillon Gee
- C L RF Sean Ratliff
- C R RP Nick Carr
- C R 3B Zach Lutz
- C R SP Scott Moviel
- C L SP Zach Dotson
- C R SP Eric Beulac
- C L LF Lucas Duda
Fernando and Niese remain eligible, per BA rules, only due to injuries, but they stay on making for a deep top 10. Thole is in the discussion for 9-10, but Familia has some serious helium at this point, with reports that make him sound an awful lot like Holt, and Tejada is at the same level as a 19 year old, has more defensive value, and projects to hit at least as much.
And don’t overlook Nieuwenhuis; a year younger than Thole, much higher offensive potential, plays good OF defense. I think he’s a future regular.
I was all over Thole last year when no one had heard of him. But he’s done about what I expected this year. He’s a solid prospect, but not a star, and not necessarily the answer as a long term starter at the position. I do think he can do better than a .700-.740 OPS, but for the near term, that’s a reasonable expectation. Plus, the catching position can be grueling, and does tend to hurt offensive projection. As a full time regular, he might have trouble doing better than .740 or so. In the platoon type role I expect, you might eventually see .760-770 type numbers. His bat isn’t too far off of Dan Murphy’s.
I’ll add, two St. Lucie guys above who I think have more upside than most yet realize, are Guzman and Carr. I suspect those are my most aggressive rankings there relative to what most people will have. I have confidence in both.
by acerimusdux on Sep 3, 2009 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah Guzman's kind of an enigma
He’s one of those guys that always slips through my memory. How about Stefan Welch? Pretty decent numbers in St. Lucie for a guy who just turned 21. Also, nice job giving Aderlin his due, he was MIA for a while, but he’s been fairly impressive, at least offensively.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on Sep 3, 2009 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Welch
Welch is pretty interesting, that’s some solid production given he only just turned 21 a few weeks ago. In a way he’s like a lesser Ike Davis. Has a bit of physical resemblance on the field, similar approach, good athlete who fields well, but much less power upside. I don’t rank him higher partly because I don’t yet see the power there to be a top corner prospect. In a way, I think his ceiling might be what Davis was so often so wrongly described as earlier this year, a 15 HR Lyle Overbay type if you are optimistic. But maybe more a Dave Magadan type if you are less optimistic. Davis, though, is a beast. He’ll have 25 HR power easily.
by acerimusdux on Sep 3, 2009 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Guzman
The thing with Guzman is he was undrafted, partly because he was a kid from a tough neighborhood in East NY, who scouts thought had attitude and make up issues. He’s seemingly managed to channel the competitiveness in a more positive direction though, and has been willing to do the work to back it up, and is showing real improvement.
Given his background, I’m a bit less concerned about his age. He’s still raw for his age, and the strikeout and walk ratios are less than stellar, but is only in his 3rd year in the system, after starting in the GCL, and is showing substantial year to year improvement. And really he’s only 10 months older than Ratliff, a level higher, and his ratios a bit better. He’s very raw as a switch hitter from the RH side, but from the LH side has a real sweet swing with good power, so I think he has a good chance to keep hitting and improving. Might end up a platoon/bench bat, depending on how the switch hitting develops.
by acerimusdux on Sep 3, 2009 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Awesome info
I knew none of his background info like that, it’s a big help, definitely makes me feel more willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on Sep 3, 2009 11:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've been wondering about Aderlin
I remember him being a big signing but then hearing nothing about him after that.
by Gina on Sep 3, 2009 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Finally showed up in the GCL at the beginning of August
He’s hitting .290 / .389 / .387 through 17 games. He’s had some defensive problems though apparently. Still won’t be 18 until November.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on Sep 3, 2009 11:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
In what way is he not a Top 10 prospect in the Mets system?
You’re severely underrating him right here. And in what way will Pena have a better career? Because he had one hot week and a half and his father played baseball too? You really don’t think he’ll develop any more, but that the skills that he does have will diminish that much? Come on. Give me a break.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Sep 2, 2009 1:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thole reminds me of Brian Schneider
with a little less power, worse defense, and slightly better contact and patience.
On the plus side, he has already performed better in the minors than Schneider ever did, except for one year when Schneider bizarrely hit 17 HRs in the EL and looked like a prospect
Nothing can get by him; especially in a small room: Mike Francessa
by GenJackRipper on Sep 2, 2009 2:51 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Exactly.
I don’t understand why people think it’s a given that his contact will never be as high in the majors, yet he won’t improve his power. What, are 22 year old catchers fully developed now, or did I miss that somewhere along the road?
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Sep 2, 2009 8:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So you're saying it's unreasonable
for me to expect Thole to put up Joe Mauer numbers next year?
by cjmulrain on Sep 2, 2009 4:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Reasonable?
Eric is clearly stating that not only are Mauer-like numbers probable this season, but we should begin engraving the HOF plaque posthaste, and doing our research on the innumerable Thole-related books that will be written. He’ll be the biggest thing to hit this team since the Right Rev. Dr. Gen. Brad Sacks, J.D., Esq.
by BobbyV_Incognito on Sep 2, 2009 6:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So you're saying he's the best thing since Brian Stokes?
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on Sep 3, 2009 2:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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