David Wright's Hit Chart
“Look, kid, don’t ever – ya ‘understand me? – don’t ever let anyone monkey with your swing.” - Ted Williams to Carl Yastrzemski.
David Wright has sucked this year. His power is gone and his strikeouts have raised tremendously. But what's most horrifying is the fact that it's a result of changing his approach, something that was instigated by Howard Johnson. The following quotes are from an article by Larry Brooks in the NY Post: http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/mets/power_struggle_not_big_issue_for_MOdv7u3VfFRnvqIo2FcaJI
“Going into the park we knew it was going to be big, but I don’t think anyone realized just how big it was going to play,“ Wright told The Post before going a quiet 0-for-3 in last night’s 6-3 defeat to the Marlins. “And so in order to be successful here I had to alter my approach a bit.
“You no longer can work the count to get ahead and then look for a pitch to drive out of the park. Instead, you look for a pitch you can shoot into the outfield for a base hit. That’s the approach I’ve been taking, and I’ve carried that onto the road.
“You’d have to be a dummy to keep trying to hit home runs when almost all your fly balls wind up reaching the warning track.”
Now, this is all really frightening, if true. The notion that they tinkered with the swing of a top 5 player in baseball and he's now become Casey Blake is enough to make one sick to their stomach. I can't imagine how you could ever let this happen to your franchise player, but this is the Mets after all. The real question is, has he actually changed his approach, or is he just retroactively making excuses and bullshitting? Often times players say shit that isn't true, just to have an explanation. It's easier to say you changed your approach than it is to say that you've been absolute dog shit. Hopefully, all that's happened is he's had a terrible year at the plate, with a combination of awful luck/slumping/whateverthefuck converging at the apex of the vortex of suck. Here's his hit charts from the last two seasons. I don't see a substantive difference in the balls he's put in play; the only thing that's different is the lack of homeruns and doubles. That doesn't mean he's changed his approach, that just means he isn't hittign homeruns and doubles. Most of his outs are grouped the same, as are his singles. He might just not be making solid contact and is making an excuse for it. Hopefully. If there's a god. Who doesn't hate the Mets.
Regardless, Howard Johnson has to be fired. You can't tell Wright to change his approach. That's just egregious. He should never work in baseball again after that. But that's of secondary importance to Wright getting his shit together.


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I see a difference on balls in play
It seemed like he had significantly more balls hit to the left of center last year. I’m not sure if I’m reading this wrong but I did a rough count and it seems like he was pulling the ball more to left and hitting more to left center.
I know Wright always had the reputation of being a right center gap hitter, but when you look at this chart, it seems like he is an all field hitter with pull power. He had more doubles and HR’s to left and there seems to be a drop off in fly ball outs to the left of dead center.
I’m not sure how Wright supposedly adjusted his swing, or why, but it does seem like he is hitting less to the left of dead center than he did last year. If he could get back to his regular approach next year he should be fine and will probably hit more HR’s and doubles to left.
Great post!
I also think that “hitting mechanics” often sounds like convenient bullshit. Right up there with pitchers “tipping their pitches”.
The most amazing thing to me is being a right handed power hitter, Wright has only 4 fly outs to LF in Citi. ( ! ) Holy shit!
And yet he has a crazy number of singles, and a few doubles (all down the line variety).
I guess that means he never lofts the ball to LF anymore, everything to LF must be a line drive or ground ball.
His outs at Shea were spread all over, in Citi they are all in CF and RF.
So if he is lining the ball to LF, why is he lofting the ball more to the opposite field? That’s nuts. You’d think it would be the opposite: drive the ball deep to your power field, slap liners to the opposite field.
Whatever Wright is doing differently, if anything, he should go back to the way it was. The mention of Casey Blake is frightening.
Left Field continued...
So if you look at balls hit to LF at Citi…Wright has 28 hits (2 HR, 5 Doubles, 21 Singles), and only 4 outs.
In other words, Wright is hitting .875 on balls hit to LF.
Signed,
Big Daddy firejerrymanuel Balls Deep
by James Kannengieser on Sep 11, 2009 3:05 PM EDT reply actions
718-937-6666
I read “David Wright has sucked this year” and I immediately dismissed this post. Nice try.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
so what's he done well?
because it looks to me like he should have an OPS around .790. But I guess that’s good for him?
by firejerrymanuel on Sep 11, 2009 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions
.857 OPS
.376 wOBA and 3.4 WAR that doesn’t suck, but he’s not playing to the level he should be.
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
which
is pure luck
if he had a normal BABIP, he’d have a slash line of .280/.370/.420
by firejerrymanuel on Sep 11, 2009 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions
What's to say he hasn't had an unlucky year with defense?
It’s below his normal defensive production. And he’s also had about 10 home runs robbed from him by Citi Field’s dumb left field wall.
So it evens out to him just having a mentally taxing year in which he gets no support.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
seriously
that’s what you’re going to say?
everything’s fine and dandy? nothing to worry about? he’s been great this year, it’s just the wall’s fault?
by firejerrymanuel on Sep 11, 2009 6:32 PM EDT up reply actions
I never said "fine and dandy"
It’s still a down year. But accounting for luck, both good (BABIP) and bad (park dimensions, UZR fluctuations that use Shea’s data), Wright’s having an All-Star year. It’s just not an MVP year. So saying “David Wright has sucked this year” is both incorrect AND makes you sound like an obnoxious Fatcessa listener.
And actually, I’d consider a 3-4 WAR season pretty solid. How bout we rag on Reyes for his terrible susceptibility to injuries next? It’ll be like MSM’s Greatest Hits!
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
wright
is having a terrible year by his standards.
hence sucking.
is this hard to figure out?
nevermind, a PrOPS of <.790 is good. losing .150+ points off your OPS, accounting for luck, that’s what I want from Wright.
good call.
by firejerrymanuel on Sep 11, 2009 11:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Are you moving his BABIP to .300?
Because that’s not his BABIP. His career norm is much higher than that.
Leaving that aside, I agree with the main point of this post, which is that David should not have altered his swing to accomodate a new field, whether HoJo told him to or not.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
i'm well aware
of his career BABIP.
by firejerrymanuel on Sep 11, 2009 11:43 PM EDT up reply actions
How would a parks' demensions affect a 3B's UZR data?
by vivaelpujols on Sep 14, 2009 11:15 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah, that was kinda a shot in the park.
However, he IS playing with SS’s that have significantly worse ranges than Jose Reyes (Alex Cora, Ramon Martinez, etc.)
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
I think it's been shown that an infeilders counterpart has only a limited affect on his UZR ratings
But I could be wrong.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 15, 2009 7:35 AM EDT up reply actions
it obviously wouldn't completely explain his defense.
But it would influence his Range Factor, at least
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
Actually it would be the opposite
RF is a counting stat, so the fewer balls that the shortstop gets to, the more balls the third basemen will get to.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 15, 2009 8:55 PM EDT up reply actions
whoops.
i meant the Error portion of UZR, because a lot of those balls he’s going for that are becoming errors are ones that are out of his reach, which should be on the shortstop. In terms of routine plays this year, as opposed to last year, David’s been consistently making them.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
but at 3b
How many times are there balls that are out of his reach, that would normally be SS balls.
How many times do you see a ball hit where either the SS or a 3b has a play on them. Very Very Very few times. I dont ever remember seeing david go for a ball and then think, man, if jose was there he would have got that instead…
What are we really talking about… tops 3 times he was effected?
probably more like 5-10.
which, while not a big influence, is statistically significant and could certainly contribute a few runs for or against his UZR.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
What's normal?
His career BABIP is .351 which is above normal. And it’s not purely luck, (it is mostly though) better hitters will have a higher BABIP. He also has a career high in LD% even if it is just one percentage point, that would help his BABIP a little.
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
what's normal
how about .350 instead of .400+
by firejerrymanuel on Sep 11, 2009 6:53 PM EDT up reply actions
firejerry's right
Wright’s BABIP is not freakishly impossible anymore, but it’s still WAY too high, and thanks to nonexistent power, a declining walk rate, and crap defense, is the only source of his value.
He hasn’t been unlucky defensively either. He has looked bad and the numbers back it up.
Wright has sucked in 2009. He is a cornerstone of the franchise, and he has been among the worst franchise cornerstones in baseball (Jimmy Rollins is a cornerstone of hype). If you normalize his BABIP, he is probably less valuable this year than Pedro Feliz, who is a weak link on the Phillies. Your MVP cannot play like the 9th MVP of your division rival.
You can’t blame the park on crappy defense. The only hope is that it’s an injury, because I don’t see this as a fluke. It’s been a full season. It’s likely that he gets over this, but it is very possible that he is beginning a precipitous decline. The longer he stays here, the more likely he is to be declining.
Nothing can get by him; especially in a small room: Mike Francessa
by GenJackRipper on Sep 11, 2009 9:48 PM EDT up reply actions
See my post above.
He has not sucked. That’s a complete fallacy.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
you do understand
that wright’s sucking is relative.
he is sucking for wright.
i didn’t think people would be too dense to figure that part out…
but here we are.
by firejerrymanuel on Sep 11, 2009 11:26 PM EDT up reply actions
And also that's not what he said.
He said he SUCKED. Worse than Pedro Feliz.
I seriously doubt someone would lose more than half of their WAR total by dropping their BABIP.
Wright has a high BABIP. That will normalize, and some of his offensive value will drop. Fine. But don’t you think it’s somewhat uninsightful to insist this, yet deny any fluctuation in defensive value (article here)?
There’s something at play other than declining power. If his power was declining, we’d also see a correlated decrease in extra base hits. But that doesn’t seem to be the case. The drop in SLG is due almost completely to a lack of HRs, which would suggest at least a statistically significant effect of dimensions. Not that the park is necessarily difficult for home run hitters, but for David’s HR distributions, he hits the most long balls towards where the fences are deep and high and unforgiving.
I would also appreciate it if we kept this civilized, instead of resorting to insults or getting personally offended by anything I say. Is that alright?
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
OK
I’ll grant that he would not be worse than Pedro Feliz even with his career BABIP. but only because I love the guy.
(and because I mistook Feliz for an above-average player)
Nothing can get by him; especially in a small room: Mike Francessa
by GenJackRipper on Sep 12, 2009 7:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Also
I know that fielding numbers will fluctuate because of random chance, but he has looked terrible this year also compared to the previous 2.
Nothing can get by him; especially in a small room: Mike Francessa
by GenJackRipper on Sep 12, 2009 8:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, that's true.
But he’s also been playing with much worse defensive shortstops than Reyes. Ramon Martinez, anyone? He’s probably just trying to compensate for more than he should.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
You really are sticking up for him huh?
He’s a good guy from all I’ve heard. You may be overdoing the benefit of the doubt thing. The guy was one of the best 5 players in baseball from 2005 to 2008; let’s hope he doesn’t need apologetics in the future. Except from FANbots.
Nothing can get by him; especially in a small room: Mike Francessa
by GenJackRipper on Sep 12, 2009 8:26 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm just giving up possible explanations.
Because I’m sure you agree he’s still one of the best in the game.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
he is having a sucky year
Based on his impeccable standards
a sucky year for him is like a “sucky” year for A-Roid
It’s great years for other players
Can we please agree that he’s not having a sucky year, he’s only having a sucky year based on his standards
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
by firejerrynow on Sep 14, 2009 7:38 PM EDT up reply actions
+1, General.
Good points, and still not partaking in the Kool-Aid, eh?
Thank you for filling the role of Amazin' Avenue watchdog
You’re doing the Lord’s work
by James Kannengieser on Sep 12, 2009 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions
could BABIP
be something a very good hitter has some control over?
As in, David is a great enough player, that if he focuses on hitting more line drives to where the players are not playing (ie: coming to bat and seeing that they are playing him to pull, so hitting it the other way) he will cause his BABIP to rise? On purpose?
I am not insinuating he has total control over it… but couldnt a very good player, that is trying to hit more line drives and raise his avg instead of hitting for power (which seems to be what david is trying to do) do that by basically trying to raise his BABIP?
but I agree that changing his approach is so crazy its carzy and if in fact HoJo recommended this, I agree it is a fireable offense.
HoJo?
That article made it sound like Wright wanted to change his approach. And it is the Ks that are really more an issue to me, but good work on where he is hitting them. A combo of things. I am not too worried about Wright.
The stadium is a bit of a mind fuck though dimension-wise.
...what...
useless and non interesting post of the day.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw




























