Appreciating Javier Vazquez

by James Kannengieser on Sep 14, 2009 12:30 PM EDT in Stats Comment 30 comments

Yesterday's Braves-Cardinals game looked like a promising pitcher's duel: Javier Vazquez vs. Chris Carpenter, 2 of the best pitchers in baseball this season. Carpenter failed to hold up his end of the bargain, getting shelled to the tune of 9 hits and 7 runs over 6 innings in the Braves' 9-2 win, but Vazquez did not disappoint:

IP	H	ER	BB	K	Pitches	Strikes	SwStr %
9	7	2	0	8	94	70	17%

All 8 of the strikeouts came on swinging strikes, including 2 against Albert Pujols. 4 of the hits came in the 9th inning. This is about as dominating a game as you will see, against a potent lineup. A glance at the strike zone plot for the game demonstrates Vazquez's approach vs. the righthanded heavy heart of the Cards lineup (Pujols, Matt Holliday, Mark DeRosa, Ryan Ludwick):

via www.brooksbaseball.net

He painted the outside corner and most pitches were low and away. Couple that location with a repertoire including a 92 mph fastball and one of the filthiest curveballs around and we're looking at a ~6 WAR pitcher. Vazquez has been pitching great for years, but it's taken a switch back to the NL, a fair ballpark and reasonable luck to yield some ERA and W-L results. (Note: he did go 15-8 with a 3.74 ERA in 2007, but his defense independent stats have generally outperformed his ERA)

Does this really pertain to the Mets in any way? Not really, except that Omar Minaya didn't seriously pursue the very available Vazquez this past offseason. Ozzie Guillen basically ran him out of town for not being clutch or some other nonsense. The Braves stepped in and acquired him for what amounts to a B prospect, hard hitting catcher Tyler Flowers. Vazquez is still underappreciated in the mainstream but has been a sabermetric darling for some time now. He's the anti-Ollie Perez: a pitcher with great peripherals who hasn't look as good as he is because of factors outside his control.

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sorry

but javy vazquez underperforms his peripherals for a reason. i don’t know what said reason is, but every single year, he does. most likely due to the patented “javy vasquez” blow up inning.

as for omar being dumb for not acquiring him, well, we didn’t have any prospects of similar value to flowers last year.

and he’s making 11.5 million a year, though i can’t wait for ollie to be healthy next year.

by firejerrymanuel on Sep 14, 2009 12:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

woops

left out a “but yes, he’s better than ollie, though i can’t wait…”

by firejerrymanuel on Sep 14, 2009 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

home runs

That’s what causes the “blow up” inning: the guy is prone to giving up the long ball, which hurt him in launching pads in Arizona and the south side of Chicago. Now he pitches in the vast expanses of Turner Field, and presto! his numbers are magnificent. There’s a reason he was my darkhorse for NL Cy Young.

Vazquez was the perfect pitcher for Citi Field, and the perfect right-handed complement to Santana, and Minaya, being the incompetent he is, let a division rival get him for a bag of balls.

Somehow, a chain of events unfolded that put Steve Phillips in a professional broadcast booth Sunday night so he could rip Carlos Beltran. Try to explain that in any other terms.

by Greenpoint Ian on Sep 14, 2009 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Tyler Flowers

was not a bag of balls. Highly regarded masher who could stick at C after a great AFL campaign last year. He was the equivalent of one of our top 3-4, plus other prospects were thrown in. Omar had little chance at him

by whynot on Sep 14, 2009 5:01 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

I must agree here

However, recall what we gave up for J.J. Putz. A similar package would have netted Javy Vazquez. It would not have had to be far more enticing. Omar screwed the pootch royally.

Nothing can get by him; especially in a small room: Mike Francessa

by GenJackRipper on Sep 14, 2009 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Chavez, Carp, Smith, and Calero (?-can't recall his name)

would not have netted Vazquez. No way. Flowers was a was considered a high flying prospect. Plus the Braves tossed in 2/3 other lower prsospects. Carp is no Flowers as far as GM’s are concerned. Vazquez would’ve cost us someone like Flores, Martinez, or someone in that vein plus others. Not that it might not be worth it, but the package for Putz would not have netted Javy.

by whynot on Sep 14, 2009 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Vazquez>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>*infinity>>>>>>>>Oliver Perez

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Sep 14, 2009 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

even when healthy

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Sep 14, 2009 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Vazquez

could be available this winter. Braves have Lowe, Kawakwami, Jurjens, and Hanson for next season and may be looking to save some $ on the rotation to acquire other needs. But I doubt the Braves would deal him our way. It was a shame Omar was not on him last year. But I think the reality was we couldn’t offer anything near as valuable as Flowers was considered w/o feeling like our farm was being ravaged.

by whynot on Sep 14, 2009 12:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Don't forget Tim Hudson has a $12 mil club option.

Which is a slightly risky but reasonable option price for his potential. Still, I can’t picture the Braves dealing Javier to the Mets and have no idea what it would take to get him.

by Sokojoe on Sep 14, 2009 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

from what I've read

The plan is for the Braves to exercise Hudson’s option and shop Lowe this offseason.

ain't had enough...

by BlackOps on Sep 14, 2009 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That would make the most sense

considering their glut of pitching and the trade-ability of their starters.

by Sokojoe on Sep 14, 2009 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Lowe

Lowe is going to have to be a salary dump at this point. Nobody is going to give up prospects for the right to pay DL 15 million on his downside. Vazquez is much more likely to fetch a return of some sort.

by whynot on Sep 14, 2009 4:57 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

Is this what this season has come to? Bad time to be a Mets fan

by lstorie1971 on Sep 14, 2009 2:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Stay tuned for my Cliff Lee appreciation piece tomorrow

(not really)

by James Kannengieser on Sep 14, 2009 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh man, you're killing me. :-)

by lstorie1971 on Sep 14, 2009 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

plus...

He’s hot.

"It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone." A. Bartlett Giamatti

by sddbaker on Sep 14, 2009 2:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think that

counts as an “intangible”…

by deadspy3 on Sep 15, 2009 9:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i'm as big a Javy fan as the next guy...

but um, why is this here?

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Sep 14, 2009 5:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Mets boredom

mostly

by James Kannengieser on Sep 14, 2009 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Francoeur Avenue is gone

Replaced by Vazquez Avenue

by James Kannengieser on Sep 14, 2009 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

nice

Andrew Vazquez is my favorite Native American flute player.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Sep 14, 2009 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

bitch please...

Andrew Vazquez is the britney spears of flute playing. People only say he is good because he has the record sales.

True enthusiasts know that James Pellerite is the true king.

by gbaked on Sep 15, 2009 1:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hey, I can't find my house in Francoeur Avenue anymore!

by Michkin on Sep 15, 2009 7:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Have the Mets locked him up long-term yet? That would be a prudent move.

If Dunn walks 30 fewer times, he'll drive in 15 more runs. This is thanks to the scientifically proven formula: RBI = (this is nonsense) (I made it all up).

Here's a stat: Wins as manager: Dusty Baker, 1,162; Bill James, 0.

by TradeAndruw on Sep 15, 2009 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I see

what you did there.

by sddbaker on Sep 16, 2009 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Which block?

I hear it’s being rezoned during the winter, between Cannon Arm Ave all the way to where it dead ends at Unintentional Walk Street.

by BobbyV_Incognito on Sep 15, 2009 9:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just to play devil's advocate

If you’re trying to make the argument that Vazquez > Perez, you won’t get an argument from me, but picking up Vazquez wasn’t the no-brainer everybody’s making it out to be. He and Ollie are both making about the same amount of money this year. The Mets would have had to give up prospects to get Vazquez, they didn’t have to give up any players to get Ollie. Vazquez is having a career best year (and it’s not “just the ballpark”, although that’s probably helped), Ollie is having a nightmare year. Having Vazquez wouldn’t have gotten the Mets anywhere near the playoffs this year. That being said,obviously the Ollie contract is terrible, and even if he had 3 2007 type seasons in a row, it wouldn’t have justified paying him that kind of money. If I was GM, I would have passed on both of them.

You don't cheer for the Mets. You drink for the Mets.

by Kevin H on Sep 15, 2009 9:56 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs