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NASTY NICK

More photos » by Tom Mihalek - AP

NASTY NICK

Would you want this player playing firstbase for the Mets next year?

versus Righties: .286/.373/.523

versus Lefties: .276/.335/.486

That's a .896 OPS versus righties and .821 versus lefties.

What about this guy at right in 2010?

versus Righties: .254/.315/.452

versus Lefties: .333/.348/.486

.767/.834 OPS. Not an ideal line, but much better than what they usually get in the corners. Could I sell you that line with the promise of good defense?

Most of you know from the title that these two hypothetical players are, in fact, four players. The firstbaseman is Adam LaRoche's 2009 line versus right-handers and Nick Evans' Major League Equivalent 2008 AA stats v. left. Jeff Francoeur's 2009 vL and Ike Davis' 2009 AA MLE's vR compose the rightfield line.

The Mets, somewhat strapped for cash and with many holes to fill, have plenty of incentive to platoon some players in 2010.The cost would be at most one cheap free agent, possibly starting the service time clock of Ike Davis, and Jeff Francoeur's arbitration settlement, which for better or worse, I'm guessing the Mets will entertain. This approach also allows the team to capitalize on the talents of its "fringe" guys.

First, Nick Evans begs to be an everyday player against lefties, whether in the outfield, at firstbase, or both. During his short major-league tenure, Evans has hit an underwhelming .242/.292/.386. Amazingly, however, he has hit a fantastic .316/.380/.469 against lefties, who he has appropriately faced more often. The split is just as dramatic in his minor league numbers. I translated his 2008 AA numbers because they were the last time he got regular work at one level, making the translation easier. That season he posted a 1.107 OPS vL in 104 plate appearances. Nick's free-swinging ways will likely prevent him from ever being an everyday firstbaseman, an assessment the Mets seem to agree with to the point of rarely even playing him in this lost season. There are three left-handed firstbaseman in particular who figure to be available this offseason: Adam LaRoche, Carlos Delgado, and Russell Branyan, who have historically large platoon splits and could be signed within the Mets budget.

Young Isaac Davis is another left-handed firstbaseman many will consider for next year's job, who too has a problem against same-handed pitchers. His lofty prospect status, and perceived improvement against lefties in Bingo (.780 OPS with an alarmingly high-BABIP) make him a less likely platoon-mate. Most people, myself included, would rather he become a more well-rounded player, but a win-now situation could force him into a part time role, learning lefties in mostly pinch-hit scenarios. The Francoeur/Davis platoon idea stems from their opposite platoon splits and their physical and defensive similarities. Each is 6'-4" with tons of raw athleticism, both have arms strong enough to pitch. Davis is working on his RF defense right now with team USA and Jeff Francoeur loves the USA.

Also a quick note on Jeff Francoeur's defense: hold your judgment. Zone ratings like UZR really hate his tenure with the Mets and I suspect that is a combination of uncharacteristically poor play and Citi Field's strange dimensions throwing the stats off. As anecdotal support for this claim check out his THT fielding stats, indicating he's made fewer plays in his zone but out-of-zone plays at a higher rate.

Earlier, I threw around the idea of a Nick Evans/Ike Davis platoon, but considering the fairly attractive options for left-handed firstbasemen, this idea makes more sense. Assuming Francoeur resigns and the Mets bring in at least a stop-gap option for leftfield (Coco Crisp?), Davis and Fernando Martinez could fight in AAA to eventually displace Francoeur or reduce him to a part-time role. This proposal also assumes the death of the Daniel Murphy at firstbase at experiment, as frankly, his bat will not play there, and his style of hitting is more suited for super-sub role than a platoon.

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Step 1:

Find a GM competant and ballsy enough to do this (including admitting the financial necesssity for it). (i.e. not Omar “Trying to keep my job” Minaya).

Step 2:
Find a manager smart and creative enough to do this correctly. (i.e. not Jerry “I don’t know how to play Nick Evans defensively” Manuel).

Truth: unlikely the Mets will realize this possibility/try it/pull this off.

by mets81 on Sep 16, 2009 7:19 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

To paraphrase Judge Chmaberlain Haller

That is a lucid, intelligent, well thought-out argument….Overruled.

by Reg Dunlop on Sep 16, 2009 9:22 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

He's probably...

… not terribly in favor a “yute” movement.

by LeiterMilnerFasterStronger on Sep 17, 2009 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I know I disagree with James and Sam on this one

I’ve mentioned this before, but it’s worth bringing up again. I really think the “Nick Evans mashes lefties” thing is a mirage. Evans has 99 career major league at bats against left handed pitching. His line is quite good, but keep in mind that his BABIP in those at bats is .397. That sets off some major red flags for me. Minor league numbers are great, but we all know that they don’t always translate to the Major League level.
What happens when the other team brings in a righty reliever? Do you pinch hit for him every time? Do you just suck it up and take the easy out late in a game? You’re putting your manager in a bad spot.
Also, we don’t even know if Evans would be able to handle a part time role. The hit he takes from sporadic playing time might cancel out any benefits from only facing lefties.
Unfortunately, based on budget, this may be the best of a lot of bad options. It doesn’t make it a good option.

You don't cheer for the Mets. You drink for the Mets.

by Kevin H on Sep 16, 2009 11:28 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Evans' career minor league splits

1,360 AB vs. RH: .359/.321/.441, 49 HR, .292 BABIP
462 AB vs. LH: .303/.380/.934, 21 HR, .331 BABIP

That’s over 1,700 ABs of data. Is that a mirage, too?

by BobbyV_Incognito on Sep 16, 2009 10:42 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

You messed up a little

1,360 ABs vs. RH: .259/.321/.441 (.762 OPS) 49 HR, .292 BABIP
462 ABs vs. LH: .303/.380/.554 (.934 OPS) 21 HR, .331 BABIP

"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."

by Evan_S on Sep 16, 2009 11:34 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, I didn't catch that

A .359 BA and a .321 OBP would be some perverse accomplishment, though.

by BobbyV_Incognito on Sep 17, 2009 1:36 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's only 462 ABs vs. LH

The other 1360 just show he can’t hit RH. Those LH numbers aren’t exactly that great for AA either. Unless he really slugged .934.

You don't cheer for the Mets. You drink for the Mets.

by Kevin H on Sep 17, 2009 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

In other words...

Daniel Murphy is our first baseman of the future!!! USA!!! USA!!!

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Sep 16, 2009 4:32 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Not saying I don't like platoons, big fan, but

remember the Karim Garcia/Shane Spencer platoon. Woof.

by Sokojoe on Sep 16, 2009 5:26 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

i love platoons

but ike davis needs to learn to hit lefty pitching.

also, closing the book on murphy now is premature, big time. he could easily settle in as capable platoon first baseman.

if you’re willing to use evans’ MIL numbers to infer that he can be a platoon bat vs. lefties, I don’t understand why you can’t give Murphy the benefit of the doubt when you look at his AA numbers.

and fuck anything has to do with francoeur. UZR hated him with the Braves, so the “they use Shea data” excuse doesn’t matter.

I understand what you’re saying and where you’re coming from, but I disagree in almost every facet.

by firejerrymanuel on Sep 16, 2009 6:54 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

"easily" settle in as a capable platoon first baseman?

Murph’s 102 OPS+ against righties versus 90 OPS+ vs. lefties doesn’t exactly scream, “Platoon Candidate”…

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Sep 16, 2009 9:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I didn't close the book on Murphy

I said he wasn’t suited for a platoon, given that he doesn’t have as much of a split and his best offensive tool, control of the strike zone, better suits a player that gets time against both lefties and righties.

Also, UZR hated him with the Braves for one season, which is statistically insignificant for a range stat. It even liked him this year before the trade.

King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president

by Sam Page on Sep 17, 2009 12:08 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

you can platoon

if one side is markedly better than another player. it doesn’t preclude you.

in 2007 UZR had him at a – for range, only his arm was somehow worth 16.5 runs
in 2008 his range was even worse
in 2009, his range got even worse.

his career total range portion of UZR is a -12.9

by firejerrymanuel on Sep 17, 2009 12:27 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Right that's just a restatement of everything you said before

or in other terms
2007- very high UZR, consistent with career to that point
2008- low UZR
2009- good UZR w/Braves but poor since trade

King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president

by Sam Page on Sep 17, 2009 1:38 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

his uzr with the braves

was not good.

and his very high UZR was solely fueled by a RIDICULOUS arm score.

for three years running, UZR has hated his range.

he’s a bad rightfielder

by firejerrymanuel on Sep 17, 2009 9:10 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

support

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/07/odds-ends-betancourt-francoeur-halladay-angels.html

somebody quoted his UZR in the comments. it was poor.

like it was last year.

there is a 3 year trend of him having bad range in RF.

3 years = UZR goodness

by firejerrymanuel on Sep 17, 2009 9:12 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

A 12 point difference in OPS+

isn’t ‘markedly better’, though.

by BobbyV_Incognito on Sep 17, 2009 1:39 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Why would you platoon Davis

when you have pagan who can give the same to better production. Davis’s clock would start and the platoon would limit his future potential.
also, you should use multiple year data, not just this year.

by EtSuKe on Sep 16, 2009 10:51 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I can't use a MLE for multiple years of data when he keeps moving up in the minors.

King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president

by Sam Page on Sep 17, 2009 12:05 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I has lobby for our PTBNL to be part of the platoon.

If we don’t add a power bat, we might end up with platoons in 1B, LF, RF (and C).

by Michkin on Sep 17, 2009 9:26 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

lets sign laroche, trade evans and call it a day

"Solo homers usually come with no one on base." -Ralph Kiner

by metsguy234 on Sep 17, 2009 11:12 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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