Defending And Prosecuting Razor Shines

by James Kannengieser on Sep 2, 2009 5:00 AM EDT in Stats Comment 28 comments

by Tom Mihalek - AP

Please don't touch me. Thank you.

The New York Post noted that 16 Mets have been thrown out at the plate this season. This is a staggering amount and doesn't reflect well on Razor Shines. One part of this story that the Post neglected to mention is only 9 of the 16 baserunners were thrown out from the outfield. The rest came on infield plays, such as Omir Santos's adventure between 3rd and home last week vs. the Marlins. For anyone who missed the play, Santos broke for home on a wild pitch, changed his mind halfway down the line, and was thrown out scrambling back to 3rd. For baseball scoring purposes, this counted as "thrown out at home". It's tough to pin that one on the 3rd base coach. This ends the "defending Razor Shines" portion of the post.

To judge Shines's work as 3rd base coach, as far as waving runners home goes, I looked up opposing teams' outfielders who have thrown out Mets trying to score and evaluations of their throwing arms. These include the throwing arm components of UZR and +/-, as well as the Fans' Scouting Report. The UZR and +/- numbers represent how many runs above or below average the outfielder has been worth with his arm. The Fans' Scouting Report figure represents the average rating given to a fielder by fans who have watched him play. A score of 1 = poor, 2 = fair, 3 = average, 4 = good, and 5 = great. Of the 9 thrown out baserunners, 2 involved cutoff men, so I didn't include them. These 7 were straight-up outfielder to catcher:

Date	Opponent	Runner	Outfielder	UZR 2008	UZR 2009	+/- 2008	+/- 2009	FSR 2009
4/6	Reds	David Wright	Jay Bruce	1.4	5.3	5	8	4.7
5/2	Phillies	Omir Santos	Jayson Werth	4.5	4.0	5	6	4.0
5/12	Braves	David Wright	Jordan Schafer	N/A	1.3	N/A	-1	3.7
5/25	Nationals	Carlos Beltran	Austin Kearns	-2.4	3.7	-3	6	3.8
6/2	Pirates	Jeremy Reed	Nate Mclouth	0.4	-2.2	2	1	3.3
7/14	Astros	Jeff Francoeur	Hunter Pence	8.6	5.5	12	10	4.1
8/17	Giants	Cory Sullivan	Aaron Rowand	3.4	-1.1	5	0	3.0

Context Note: Last season, Pence had the most valuable arm according to UZR; Brian Giles was last, at -10.6 runs. This year Nyjer Morgan leads the way at 10.0; Brad Hawpe has the worst, at -6.2.

It looks like there isn't a poor arm in the bunch. Bruce, Werth, and Pence possess cannons, and the rest appear to be average or slightly above average. It makes sense that outfielders with good throwing arms will throw out some runners at the plate (Bruce, Werth, and Pence are all top 10 in the NL in assists). However, this tells us that Shines has been foolishly testing some of the best arms in the game. If sending Francoeur against Pence was dumb, then sending the lead-footed Santos vs. Werth was outrageous. Keep in mind that this little study isn't flawless, as I didn't painstakingly review video of each play (although I remember watching most of these and expressing disgust) or heavily consider runner speed to determine if the green light was a smart move.

It appears Shines doesn't spend much time learning about opposing team's outfielders. Or if he does, he just disregards the numbers and scouting reports in favor of aggression for the sake of aggression. Omar Minaya and Jerry Manuel will probably be spared the death blow this offseason, but let's hope Shines is not retained as 3rd base coach. There's hope for this actually happening, as even Manuel expressed concern about the Shines green light:

He's been OK, and I think he'll get better. There have been some times where maybe guys should have been held or what have you, and there will be some more times like that.

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"There will be some more times like that"

Unfortunately, I doubt Jerry even thinks this is a big deal. Sounds like he’s defending his guy more than anything.

by Joamiq on Sep 2, 2009 5:21 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Hmm

I remember reading somewhere that, from a statistical point of view, runners/3B coaches are too cautious in heading home — that there’s an unnaturally high success rate, particularly in tagging up then testing the arm. Is this not true?

Maybe somebody knows how many unexpected runs the evergreen light would have to yield to make up for 9 throwouts. Surely not anywhere near 9.

by letsgocyclones on Sep 2, 2009 8:18 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

By "not anywhere near 9"

I assume you mean it should be many more than that, right?

by Eric Simon on Sep 2, 2009 9:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

not necessarily "many" more...

for instance, with 2 outs and a runner on third, I doubt the expected number of runs (for 2009 Mets) is more than 0.5. Hence, waiving runner in in a close situation might give a higher expected value. Of course, with less than 2 outs, the odds are much more different.

by alexSVK on Sep 2, 2009 9:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

actually,

it would be great to know, for each of those 9 thrown baserunners, how many outs there were in those innings.

by alexSVK on Sep 2, 2009 9:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

This my thought. With 2 outs, doesn’t waving a running in a close situation DEFINITELY give a higher expected value, though? If you’re successful 5 times and are thrown-out 9, that’s still 5 sure runs against an expected 4.5 (given your guess.) Or am I thinking wrong?

And would, say, a 50-50 split in a one out situation be a terrible thing?

(I’m pretty new to this.)

by letsgocyclones on Sep 2, 2009 9:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

wait

I see my own mistake. In the above 2 out scenario if you’re thrown out 9 times out of 14, that’s 5 sure runs against 7 expected. Duh.

by letsgocyclones on Sep 2, 2009 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

A very nice piece...

but I’m afraid, at the end, not very conclusive. A lot of additional work would have to be done in order to make this analysis more telling than a naked eye observation of Razor Shines. For starters, one would have to keep track of all close plays at home. Sure, 9 baserunners thrown out from outfield seems very high. On the other hand, how many runners were safe on similar Razor’s calls? Were the runners safe on average against “poorer” arms? Hence, what is Razor’s weighted success rate in close situations? How does this compare with other 3rd base coaches?

by alexSVK on Sep 2, 2009 9:27 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, I thought about looking a lot more in-depth than this

but all of those questions you ask would probably take a long-ass time to answer. And I’m guessing in the end the conclusion might be the same – Razor Shines is not a good 3rd base coach. Feel free to make a FanPost about it though!

by James Kannengieser on Sep 2, 2009 9:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

In fairness

Tatis ran through the stop sign against the Cubs the other day too. Unless Razor yelled at him to go when the ball got away. But I hadn’t heard that.

by blains2000 on Sep 2, 2009 9:40 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Part of it is Communication

Tatis ran through the stop sign because he didn’t know what to do. He actually stuttered around 3rd which is really what probably cost him as he would probably have scored if he’d gone full speed.

Getting nailed on a WP trying to go home. That’s more communication from your 3rd base coach. Your 3rd base coach tells you when to go and when to stay and the coach has to be certain and authoritative to make you override your instincts.

It seems to me that might be one of Razor’s issues.

by Lunkwill Fook on Sep 2, 2009 10:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

If you have a problem with communication

you’re probably not cut out to be a 3rd base coach.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Sep 2, 2009 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This is an interesting question

Here’s an expected run matrix from baseball prospectus (2004 data, but I assume this doesn’t change a whole lot).

           OUTS
RUNNERS 0 1 2
    —- 0.5379 0.2866 0.1135
    1— 0.9259 0.5496 0.2460
    -2- 1.1596 0.7104 0.3359
    12- 1.4669 0.9577 0.4605
    —3 1.4535 0.9722 0.3623
    1-3 1.8540 1.2236 0.5219
    -23 2.1343 1.4717 0.6179
    123 2.2548 1.5946 0.8082

What I take from this is that the situation makes a huge difference of when you send the runner.
With 0 or 1 out, you better be damn sure that he doesn’t get thrown out. With 2 out, it’s a whole different story. If it’s a lone runner on third vs. trying to send him, you should almost always send the runner, because the expected run value is only ~1/3 of a run if you hold the runner. If holding the runner would result in second and third, or the bases loaded, you should be more cautious because you have a good chance of scoring that run from second. Also, if it’s late in the game and you only need 1 run, it would make sense to be more aggressive. Who’s on deck makes a difference too. I don’t remember all of the situations where Met runners got thrown out at home this year, but you definitely would have to take that into account to do any sort of meaningful analysis.

You don't cheer for the Mets. You drink for the Mets.

by Kevin H on Sep 2, 2009 11:10 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

yeah,

that’s what I was thinking but was too lazy to find the actual data. One more thing though: those data are aggregated accross whole MLB. The numbers might look differently (most likely worse) when adjusted to the inept Mets lineup.

by alexSVK on Sep 2, 2009 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

fuck razor shines

remember when cora held up at 3rd on his own and would’ve been a dead duck?

and then pagan drilled a grand slam?

shines is AWFUL

by firejerrymanuel on Sep 2, 2009 11:23 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Cora has definitely got

a better baseball brain than Razor Shines. He’s no life coach though.

by deadspy3 on Sep 2, 2009 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's like at the end of Moneyball

where he talks about baseball being a big club and the only things that people are judged on is their clubbiness. Razor Shines has been around baseball his whole life, playing, coaching in the minors, coaching in the majors. He’s been a coach before, he’ll be a coach again. He’s properly clubby and won’t run out of places to have a job regardless of whether or not he’s actually good at it.

Same goes for Jerry and Omar.

by dtro on Sep 2, 2009 11:43 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Beltran vs. Kearns

Was that the “WHY DIDN’T HE SLIDE HE DOESN’T CARE ABOUT THE GAME HE IS NOT GRITTY” play?

by JoshNY on Sep 2, 2009 11:46 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Nah that was vs. the Cardinals

It counts as one of the 16 guys thrown out at home. IIRC, Beltran tagged up from 2nd heading to 3rd, the throw from the OF got away on the infield and eventually someone picked the ball up and threw home to get him. Also, Beltran is soft.

by James Kannengieser on Sep 2, 2009 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

As bad as he is

Sandy Alomar Sr. was worse.

by David G on Sep 2, 2009 12:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Or Luis Aguayo

BLAH

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Sep 2, 2009 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sending Santos vs. Werth's arm

I remember that game, and while it might appear stupid now, there were 2 outs, and I don’t remember who was up next, but it wasn’t a good hitter, so basically the choice was having the bases loaded w/ 2 outs for a sub par hitter, or taking a chance with Santos. I agreed with the move at the time, because from what I remember, it took a perfect throw to get Santos out

by njmetfan12 on Sep 2, 2009 1:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Sheff was on deck

Wright to follow.

by James Kannengieser on Sep 2, 2009 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The dumbest part of that

was that Jerry used Santos as a pinch runner, so Shines probably felt like “hey, he’s a pinch runner, he can make it!” Not only does he have a short swing, he has short quick strides!

Using catchers as pinch runners: gangsta

by David G on Sep 2, 2009 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs