Oh What A Feeling: Mets 6, Nationals 2

I guess football was the highlight of the day – BTW, awesome wins for Giants and Jets!

If you follow football, you gotta wonder how in hell the damned Texans beat the Titans… in a high scoring debacle, no less!

NEWSFLASH: BTW, I do in fact have a formula for payroll/win efficiency! This is based on YTD results, and generally increases as the season goes on.

Let

E = Efficiency rating
L = Losses
Pa = League average payroll (constant)
Pt = Team payroll
W = Wins

K = (W² / (W + L) – a measure of a team’s “power”

Pa = $88,336,287

38.07 = Average efficiency rating
38.07 = Average power rating

38.60 = Mean efficiency rating
38.90 = Mean power rating
-———————————

The formula is: (W² / (W + L)) * (Pa / Pt), or K * (Pa / Pt)

I hate to admit it, but when it comes to this, the Mets are the cream of the crap! Nobody should object to the workings behind this carefully constructed formula!

Rk / Team Payroll. / ..W-L../ Power/ Eff Rtg / Team
01 / $036,814,000 / 80-70 / 42.67 / 102.38 / Florida Marlins
02 / $042,796,700 / 68-82 / 30.83 / 063.63 / San Diego Padres
03 / $068,646,023 / 81-67 / 44.33 / 057.05 / Texas Rangers
04 / $075,201,000 / 85-65 / 48.17 / 056.58 / Colorado Rockies
05 / $063,313,035 / 77-73 / 39.53 / 055.15 / Tampa Bay Rays
06 / $065,299,267 / 76-73 / 38.77 / 052.44 / Minnesota Twins
07 / $088,528,411 / 87-63 / 50.46 / 050.35 / St. Louis Cardinals
08 / $062,310,000 / 71-78 / 33.83 / 047.96 / Oakland Athletics
09 / $100,458,101 / 90-60 / 54.00 / 047.48 / Los Angeles Dodgers
10 / $082,161,450 / 80-69 / 42.95 / 046.18 / San Francisco Giants
11 / $113,709,000 / 89-60 / 53.16 / 041.30 / Los Angeles Angels
12 / $079,857,502 / 74-75 / 36.75 / 040.65 / Milwaukee Brewers
13 / $113,004,048 / 87-61 / 51.14 / 039.98 / Philadelphia Phillies
14 / $070,968,500 / 69-81 / 31.74 / 039.51 / Cincinnati Reds
15 / $048,743,000 / 56-91 / 21.33 / 038.66 / Pittsburgh Pirates
16 / $122,696,000 / 89-59 / 53.52 / 038.53 / Boston Red Sox
17 / $096,726,167 / 79-70 / 41.89 / 038.25 / Atlanta Braves
18 / $098,904,167 / 78-72 / 40.56 / 036.23 / Seattle Mariners
19 / $073,571,667 / 65-85 / 28.17 / 033.82 / Arizona Diamondbacks
20 / $096,068,500 / 73-77 / 35.53 / 032.67 / Chicago White Sox
21 / $115,085,145 / 79-70 / 41.89 / 032.15 / Detroit Tigers
22 / $080,993,657 / 66-83 / 29.23 / 031.89 / Toronto Blue Jays
23 / $067,101,667 / 60-89 / 24.16 / 031.81 / Baltimore Orioles
24 / $070,908,333 / 61-88 / 24.97 / 031.11 / Kansas City Royals
25 / $102,996,415 / 70-79 / 32.89 / 028.21 / Houston Astros
26 / $081,625,567 / 61-88 / 24.97 / 027.03 / Cleveland Indians
27 / $201,449,289 / 95-55 / 60.17 / 026.38 / New York Yankees*
28 / $059,328,000 / 51-98 / 17.46 / 025.99 / Washington Nationals
29 / $135,050,000 / 76-72 / 39.03 / 025.53 / Chicago Cubs
30 / $135,773,988 / 65-85 / 28.17 / 018.33 / New York Mets

*If you’re wondering how the Yankees are the 4th least efficient team, it’s because they basically paid their way to domination (ticket strategy). Efficiency rating is more of a rating of teams getting a bang for their buck – it’s fitting that the Marlins are waaay ahead, and that the top-payed players are getting paid far, far too much money (that’s why NYY is down there.) Since the Yankees are an outlier in team payrolls, let’s chalk this one up as a special case. Outliers have tendencies to be very misleading. But to give you an example of how efficient the Marlins really are, if NYY went 162 – 0, their rating would still be 75.5 – well short of the Marlins. You would need to reduce your payroll to $145.5 million if you go 162 – 0, to match the Marlins’ efficiency rating. There’s something to be learned from all this…

It should be noted that teams with the highest efficiency ratings also tend to have the best overall value, by players. Their prospects also tend to recently break out in a big way (i.e. Texas Rangers). Hanley Ramirez is getting paid $5.5 million this year and Jeter $21.6 million – Ramirez is clearly more productive right now (no disrespect to future HOFer Jeter), AND has even better value, obviously! That should seal my case for the formula.

But see, this is a CLEAR indication that the Mets need to invest HEAVILY in their farm system – David Wright and Jose Reyes are the only players from the Mets farm system that have paid considerable enough dividends (Murphy and Thole might join them soon). None of their currently good pitchers are from the farm system! (Pelfrey needs LOTS of work!) Screw putting excuses on injuries – the Mets need to inject their farm system in the a$$! If you look at all the other teams, it is generally evident that more of their good players are farm-raised. The Mets need to follow the example of Rangers’ GM Jon Daniels – dump waste of salary players (like Sheffield, $14 million) and invest that money on scouting and player development. Oliver Perez ($12 million/year for 3 years), based on this model, is the WORST SIGNING EVER (per dollar) by the Mets, in my opinion (even worse than what Carl Pavano was to the Yankees – Pavano had MUCH more to offer at the time of his signing!) – Perez is the poster boy for “toxic assets”. Perez himself, when you think about it, is no more a criminal than banks nowadays.

MR. TOXIC ASSETS

Is he laughing or grieving? This is a classic Mona Lisa paradox.

I should do an article on this. Seriously.

Sheffield may be making $14 million, but we’re only paying $400K of that. The rest is on the Tigers’ payroll.

Oh, yeah – I remember that, now that you mention it! Thank almighty god! Obviously, the Mets won’t give in to his front office offensive about getting a deal signed prematurely, prior to season’s end. The guy has no tact and will call anyone a racist at the drop of a hat.

Gary Sheffield is to today what Dick Allen was to 1970. Dick Allen has definite Hall of Fame credentials (.912 OPS – 56th, .534 SLG – 43rd, 156 OPS+ – 19th), but even baseball’s most respected statistician, Bill James, said that Allen “did more to keep his teams from winning than anybody else who ever played major league baseball.” That is a blockbuster of a statement coming from James.

Read about it here: http://www.expressfan.com/dickallenhof/docs/billjames.pdf