The Mets are already in a bad situation, but what does their future outlook project? I will show you. But first, allow me to introduce some payroll efficiency statistics, which demonstrates how well the payroll can justify their team's record.

Payroll efficiency formula

Let:

E = Efficiency rating
L = Losses
Pa = League average payroll (constant)
Pt = Team payroll
W = Wins

K = (W² / (W + L) – a measure of a team’s "power"
√K * E (square root of (power x efficiency)) – Number that shows how well a team maximizes on returns, based on power and efficiency.

-———————————

Pa = $88,336,287

41.23 = Average efficiency rating
38.07 = Average power rating
38.96 = Average power-efficiency rating

38.60 = Median efficiency rating
38.90 = Median power rating
39.25 = Median power-efficiency rating

-———————————

The efficiency rating formula is: (W² / (W + L)) * (Pa / Pt), or K * (Pa / Pt)

I hate to admit it, but when it comes to this, the Mets are the cream of the crap! Nobody should object to the workings behind this carefully constructed formula, based on the findings.

EFFICIENCY RATING LEADERBOARD

Rk / .Total Payroll. / ..W – L.. / .Pow. / Eff. Rtg./√K * E/ Team
01 / $036,814,000 / 80 – 70 / 42.67 / 102.38 / 66.09 / Florida Marlins
02 / $042,796,700 / 68 – 82 / 30.83 / 063.63 / 44.29 / San Diego Padres
03 / $068,646,023 / 81 – 67 / 44.33 / 057.05 / 50.29 / Texas Rangers
04 / $075,201,000 / 85 – 65 / 48.17 / 056.58 / 52.20 / Colorado Rockies
05 / $063,313,035 / 77 – 73 / 39.53 / 055.15 / 46.69 / Tampa Bay Rays
06 / $065,299,267 / 76 – 73 / 38.77 / 052.44 / 45.09 / Minnesota Twins
07 / $088,528,411 / 87 – 63 / 50.46 / 050.35 / 50.41 / St. Louis Cardinals
08 / $062,310,000 / 71 – 78 / 33.83 / 047.96 / 40.28 / Oakland Athletics
09 / $100,458,101 / 90 – 60 / 54.00 / 047.48 / 50.64 / Los Angeles Dodgers
10 / $082,161,450 / 80 – 69 / 42.95 / 046.18 / 44.54 / San Francisco Giants
11 / $113,709,000 / 89 – 60 / 53.16 / 041.30 / 46.86 / Los Angeles Angels
12 / $079,857,502 / 74 – 75 / 36.75 / 040.65 / 38.65 / Milwaukee Brewers
13 / $113,004,048 / 87 – 61 / 51.14 / 039.98 / 45.22 / Philadelphia Phillies
14 / $070,968,500 / 69 – 81 / 31.74 / 039.51 / 35.41 / Cincinnati Reds
15 / $048,743,000 / 56 – 91 / 21.33 / 038.66 / 28.72 / Pittsburgh Pirates
16 / $122,696,000 / 89 – 59 / 53.52 / 038.53 / 45.41 / Boston Red Sox
17 / $096,726,167 / 79 – 70 / 41.89 / 038.25 / 40.03 / Atlanta Braves
18 / $098,904,167 / 78 – 72 / 40.56 / 036.23 / 38.33 / Seattle Mariners
19 / $073,571,667 / 65 – 85 / 28.17 / 033.82 / 30.86 / Arizona Diamondbacks
20 / $096,068,500 / 73 – 77 / 35.53 / 032.67 / 34.07 / Chicago White Sox
21 / $115,085,145 / 79 – 70 / 41.89 / 032.15 / 36.70 / Detroit Tigers
22 / $080,993,657 / 66 – 83 / 29.23 / 031.89 / 30.53 / Toronto Blue Jays
23 / $067,101,667 / 60 – 89 / 24.16 / 031.81 / 27.72 / Baltimore Orioles
24 / $070,908,333 / 61 – 88 / 24.97 / 031.11 / 27.87 / Kansas City Royals
25 / $102,996,415 / 70 – 79 / 32.89 / 028.21 / 30.46 / Houston Astros
26 / $081,625,567 / 61 – 88 / 24.97 / 027.03 / 25.98 / Cleveland Indians
27 / $201,449,289 / 95 – 55 / 60.17 / 026.38 / 39.84 / New York Yankees*
28 / $059,328,000 / 51 – 98 / 17.46 / 025.99 / 21.30 / Washington Nationals
29 / $135,050,000 / 76 – 72 / 39.03 / 025.53 / 31.56 / Chicago Cubs
30 / $135,773,988 / 65 – 85 / 28.17 / 018.33 / 22.72 / New York Mets

As of September 20, 2009

*If you’re wondering how the Yankees are the 4th least efficient team, it’s because they basically paid their way to domination (ticket strategy). Efficiency rating is more of a rating of teams getting a bang for their buck – it’s fitting that the Marlins are waaay ahead, and that the top-payed players are getting paid far, far too much money (that’s why the Yankees are down there.) Since the Yankees are an outlier in team payrolls, let’s chalk this one up as a special case. Outliers have tendencies to be very misleading. But to give you an example of how efficient the Marlins really are, if the Yankees went 162 – 0, their rating would still be 75.5 – well short of the Marlins. You would need to reduce your payroll to $139.7 million if you go 162 – 0, to match the Marlins’ efficiency rating. There’s something to be learned from all this…

Courtesy of ‘TheBigStapler’, I posted a power-efficiency returns statistic, that shows how well a team can balance power and efficiency. This statistic was particularly lenient on the Yankees, but does not offer any solace for the Mets. This basically shows how well a team maximizes profit from their strength and efficiency and projects how the future projects for these teams, should the status quo be maintained under the same approach (regardless of the current state of their farm systems) – it is adjusted accordingly to fit a model more consistent with today’s standards of excessively-payed players and puts more emphasis simply on how good (or how powerful) a team is. Payroll still plays an integral part in this, though. Obviously, the Yankees don't have to worry about their payroll, and can burn as much money as they need to, in order to acquire talent. This is a projection of a team's future forecast – things definitely look grim for the Mets. Their best hope (and their only hope) is renovating and developing their farm system and making a series of relatively effective low-budget moves. I heard they are already breaking ground on a minor league training facility in Scotland, where they play shot-put regularly. Great place to acquire pitching talent, I say! Right, lads?

POWER – EFFICIENCY RETURNS LEADERBOARD

Rk / .Total Payroll. / ..W – L.. / .Pow. / Eff. Rtg./√K * E / Team
01 / $036,814,000 / 80 – 70 / 42.67 / 102.38 / 66.09 / Florida Marlins
02 / $075,201,000 / 85 – 65 / 48.17 / 056.58 / 52.20 / Colorado Rockies
03 / $100,458,101 / 90 – 60 / 54.00 / 047.48 / 50.64 / Los Angeles Dodgers
04 / $088,528,411 / 87 – 63 / 50.46 / 050.35 / 50.41 / St. Louis Cardinals
05 / $068,646,023 / 81 – 67 / 44.33 / 057.05 / 50.29 / Texas Rangers
06 / $113,709,000 / 89 – 60 / 53.16 / 041.30 / 46.86 / Los Angeles Angels
07 / $063,313,035 / 77 – 73 / 39.53 / 055.15 / 46.69 / Tampa Bay Rays
08 / $122,696,000 / 89 – 59 / 53.52 / 038.53 / 45.41 / Boston Red Sox
09 / $113,004,048 / 87 – 61 / 51.14 / 039.98 / 45.22 / Philadelphia Phillies
10 / $065,299,267 / 76 – 73 / 38.77 / 052.44 / 45.09 / Minnesota Twins
11 / $082,161,450 / 80 – 69 / 42.95 / 046.18 / 44.54 / San Francisco Giants
12 / $042,796,700 / 68 – 82 / 30.83 / 063.63 / 44.29 / San Diego Padres
13 / $062,310,000 / 71 – 78 / 33.83 / 047.96 / 40.28 / Oakland Athletics
14 / $096,726,167 / 79 – 70 / 41.89 / 038.25 / 40.03 / Atlanta Braves
15 / $201,449,289 / 95 – 55 / 60.17 / 026.38 / 39.84 / New York Yankees*
16 / $079,857,502 / 74 – 75 / 36.75 / 040.65 / 38.65 / Milwaukee Brewers
17 / $098,904,167 / 78 – 72 / 40.56 / 036.23 / 38.33 / Seattle Mariners
18 / $115,085,145 / 79 – 70 / 41.89 / 032.15 / 36.70 / Detroit Tigers
19 / $070,968,500 / 69 – 81 / 31.74 / 039.51 / 35.41 / Cincinnati Reds
20 / $096,068,500 / 73 – 77 / 35.53 / 032.67 / 34.07 / Chicago White Sox
21 / $135,050,000 / 76 – 72 / 39.03 / 025.53 / 31.56 / Chicago Cubs
22 / $073,571,667 / 65 – 85 / 28.17 / 033.82 / 30.86 / Arizona Diamondbacks
23 / $080,993,657 / 66 – 83 / 29.23 / 031.89 / 30.53 / Toronto Blue Jays
24 / $102,996,415 / 70 – 79 / 32.89 / 028.21 / 30.46 / Houston Astros
25 / $048,743,000 / 56 – 91 / 21.33 / 038.66 / 28.72 / Pittsburgh Pirates
26 / $070,908,333 / 61 – 88 / 24.97 / 031.11 / 27.87 / Kansas City Royals
27 / $067,101,667 / 60 – 89 / 24.16 / 031.81 / 27.72 / Baltimore Orioles
28 / $081,625,567 / 61 – 88 / 24.97 / 027.03 / 25.98 / Cleveland Indians
29 / $135,773,988 / 65 – 85 / 28.17 / 018.33 / 22.72 / New York Mets
30 / $059,328,000 / 51 – 98 / 17.46 / 025.99 / 21.30 / Washington Nationals

As of September 20, 2009

It should be noted that teams with the highest efficiency ratings also tend to have the best overall value, by players. Their prospects also tend to recently break out in a big way (i.e. Texas Rangers). Hanley Ramirez is getting paid $5.5 million this year and Derek Jeter $21.6 million – Ramirez is clearly more productive right now (no disrespect to future HOFer Jeter), AND has even better value, obviously! That should seal my case for the formula.

But see, this is a CLEAR indication that the Mets need to invest HEAVILY in their farm system – David Wright and Jose Reyes are the only players from the Mets farm system that have paid considerable enough dividends (Daniel Murphy and Josh Thole might join them soon). The only good Mets pitcher on the roster right now who was brought up from their farm system is Pedro Feliciano! (Mike Pelfrey needs LOTS of work!) Screw putting excuses on injuries – the Mets need to inject their farm system in the a$$! If you look at all the other teams, it is generally evident that more of their good players are farm-raised. The Mets need to follow the example of Rangers’ GM Jon Daniels – drop players who don't offer adequate value going forward, and invest that money in scouting and player development. Oliver Perez ($12 million/year for 3 years), based on this model, is the WORST SIGNING EVER (per dollar) by the Mets, in my opinion (even worse than what Carl Pavano was to the Yankees – Pavano had MUCH more to offer at the time of his signing!) – Perez is the poster boy for "toxic assets". The utter stupidity behind Omar Minaya's idea to sign a pitcher with spotty career statistics and questionable track record for an exorbitant amount of money befuddles me! He is NOT the "next Cliff Lee", and never will be! It doesn't matter who the pitching coach is – he can't be trusted to handle the job! Perez himself, when you think about it, is no more a criminal than banks nowadays.

MR. TOXIC ASSETS

Is he laughing or grieving? This is a classic Mona Lisa paradox.

The Mets can't wait until next year to start making the necessary improvements – the time is NOW. The Mets can free up some necessary payroll from their free agents, who are C Brian Schneider ($4,900,000), 1B Carlos Delgado ($12,000,000), SS Alex Cora ($2,000,000), LF Gary Sheffield (only responsible for $400,000 of $14 million contract), LF Fernando Tatis ($1,700,000), and RHP J.J. Putz ($6,000,000 this season, $9,150,000 club option with a $1,000,000 buyout). That's $27 million in payroll right there. I think it's in their best interest to let go of Brian Schneider – Josh Thole has what it takes to steer this organization with Omir Santos as his backup. Carlos Delgado, despite his production, isn't worth picking up the tab for, as he will be an oft-injured payer who might not do much to justify any salary he might get – the Mets could sign him for less, but Daniel Murphy has a strong hold at the 1st base position, anyway. Alex Cora is a toss-up, but I think the Mets can get a better deal than what he's worth. We all know Sheffield will not be in a Mets uniform next season – his departure from New York will bring memories of Stephon Marbury's unceremonious departure as he left the New York Knicks for the Boston Celtics, under enormous scrutiny. I wouldn't mind having Tatis back next year – he provides that necessary 1B/3B/LF/PH versatility that is worth the price tag, and he is often good in the clutch. I say that J.J. Putz could be hit or miss, but let's assume he does get signed, on the basis of his credentials. With that said, the Mets could free up $16,150,000 in payroll.

They should spend that money bolstering their rotation and filling out the LF position with a no. 1 player to lead that position, or a player who can split a timeshare with Tatis.

I suggest that the Mets target SP Randy Wolf to a deal in the ballpark of $6 – 8 million (currently making $4,956,237). Yes, he is having a good season and had some bad ones in his career, but I say that with the shortage of good economical options out there, he's the best free agent fit and is worth the chance.

As for LF, Jason Bay will probably be off-limits, so the Mets should look to target Marlon Byrd (currently making $3,060,000) for about $5 million and put him in a timeshare with Tatis. Granted, much of his power numbers comes from the advantages of playing half his games in a hitter's ballpark in the Ballpark at Arlington, but he does have respectable pop and can hit for extra-base hits 40 percent of the time he does get hits (more often than Tatis), which is pretty good. Marlon Byrd doesn't strike out any more than Tatis and has a similar OPS+ and SLG %, but the fact that he faced tougher pitching in the American League suggests he is more than a viable counterpart to Tatis, and could actually steal at-bats and a portion of the timeshare since he seems more capable of playing a full season, as he has amassed many more at-bats over the last two seasons and will obtain a better grip over National League pitching. Yes, they both hit better against righties than lefties, but the Mets stand to benefit from such a move in the long-term.

Assuming my scenario pays out, the Mets will still have about $4 million left in free payroll. Whenever and wherever the need necessitates, that can be used on minor acquisitions and/or on team-building projects, such as scouting and player development. I would like to add that the Mets can't afford to make any really big trades this season – their farm system is depleted because of that and needs to be maintained. Other than that, they just don't have much to offer from their roster. The trades (whatever they may be) will most likely be all relatively small-scale. I don't expect Minaya to pull off a blockbuster deal for the 4th year in a row. The price is too high.

Based on what the figures suggest, the Mets will be in for a long year ahead in 2010 (even negating the injuries), but they need to start somewhere. Yes, the injuries cost them some games, but it can't account for the 22 or so game difference between them and the Phillies entirely! They need to get smart, bolster scouting and player development to rebuild their farm system, make a series of small but efficient offseason moves, and sign high-value (not high price) free agents. A good value player can justify his salary, if not make a case for a raise. The Mets need to act. The Mets need to act NOW.