Murphy's Odd Season
by sjohnson125 on Sep 22, 2009 8:23 PM EDT
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PrintI don't have any explanation for this, but this is certainly the weirdest split I've seen this season, and I wanted to see what this community thought. Check out this split on Daniel Murphy.
4/1-7/31: .247/.317/.373
8/1 - 9/21: .297/.309/.516
Murph has exactly 2 unintentional walks since July 31. His power over that stretch is actually respectable, and could even be passable for a first baseman if sustained (average isolated power for a 1B in 2009 is .208). But what happened to the patient hitter from the beginning of the season? Is this just a fluke? Or a change in approach? Could he possibly combine the best of both worlds?
I suppose we could write it off as "small sample," but this seems awfully strange.
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We don't know if he made a change and if the change made an effect
and the 2nd split has only been 2 months, so my best guess would be small sample size.
Francouer shared his secrets
You don't cheer for the Mets. You drink for the Mets.
Since August 1st
I have Murphy at .297/.313/.530 with three unintentional walks, which is pretty close to what you came up with. Plugged into the WAR spreadsheet , if sustained for 650 plate appearances and given average defense he would be worth around 2.5 WAR and ~$12 million, which would be a bargain at his salary.
$12 million!?
And he’s doing this with an unfluky .316 baBIP, too. Something’s not right, and I’m not sure if it’s the projected salary (based on WAR), his line drive ratio, or any one or more factors.
Note: One of baseball’s most coveted free agents, Jason Bay, is only making $7.8 million. Surely, Murphy’s not a better player than he. If you want to use the “Bay is underpaid” argument, the best hitter in all of baseball (Albert Pujols) is making $14.3 million. $12 million really isn’t that far behind.
Someone please explain how Murphy became the $12 million man (in other words, twice as expensive as Steve Austin – not the wrestler)
SOS = Same Old Sh*t
He's talking about the value of his services
Meaning that FanGraphs based on his WAR and other value factors would assign his value in dollars to around $12 million, not that we should sign him to that amount.
by METSMETSMETS on Sep 24, 2009 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions
and that's not even true.
It’s that his recent month and a half of decent play would extrapolate to that value over a whole season. I’m in the camp that thinks that will never happen.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
yeah thats what I mean
and I don’t necessary think it’ll go down with him hitting .290/.310/.530 every year but a 2.5 WAR from him isn’t the most otherworldly thing I’ve ever heard. He’s capable of basically hitting .350/.500 at some point down the road, maybe it’ll end up more at .365/.475 but still it’s within the realm of possibility.
by METSMETSMETS on Sep 24, 2009 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions
My opinion
Murph is a cerebral player who gets by on approach. It takes time for him to adjust since he can’t lean on talent. He knows what he is doing and he knows that he needs to adjust further and recoup some patience to be valuable, but he also knows that power Murph is more valuable than Murph from May-July, so he’s sticking with this for now.
Nothing can get by him; especially in a small room: Mike Francessa
4 HR in September, and hitting well with an "unlucky" .286 baBIP no less!
Note: baBIP does not take HRs into consideration. But still, his increase in extra-base hits prowess is SCARY. (He improved in the 2Bs dept. tremendously, too!)
Not bad at all. Could he hit 25 HRs next season? Possibly.
Why did the scouts not like his future outlook? Now, I’m confused.
SOS = Same Old Sh*t
Hey man
I appreciate what you have to say but that Note: thing is very distracting to read and pissing me off.
by METSMETSMETS on Sep 24, 2009 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Condescending!?
It’s just a point of emphasis! No more and no less. Surely, I don’t mean to condescend, but I apologize if you took it personal…
SOS = Same Old Sh*t
Nah
just think about it: If you feel like a special explanation is necessary, don’t use it, or just avoid writing in that style
for example
4 HR in September, and hitting well with an “unlucky” .286 baBIP no less!
Note: baBIP does not take HRs into consideration. But still, his increase in extra-base hits prowess is SCARY. (He improved in the 2Bs dept. tremendously, too!)
In this, you explain that HR isn’t part of BABIP. In this situation you could have just said “I know that BABIP doesn’t include HR, but I think it’s relevant because….” The note thing is just a little obnoxious and redundant, IMO.
by METSMETSMETS on Sep 28, 2009 12:21 AM EDT up reply actions
It's not like I'm sitting here like
“ARRRGGHHHH THIS ASSHOLE” it’s just a bit annoying to one reading what you are saying to see you assuming that the reader has no idea what you’re talking about or that he doesn’t have the capacity to look it up.
by METSMETSMETS on Sep 28, 2009 12:18 AM EDT up reply actions
I haven't been watching too much of the Mets lately
so I could be completely wrong about this, but maybe he was being too patient earlier in the year and letting good pitches go by. Maybe he changed his approach to swing earlier in the count if he got a pitch to drive. That kind of approach probably isn’t sustainable for a long time, b/c eventually pitchers will re-adjust and start throwing him junk, but he’s proven in the past he can be patient, so maybe this is all part of the learning curve and next year he’ll actually be a good hitter. One can dream, right?
considering
he had 1 game in AAA… and how his progression though the minors was going.
What would we all be saying if Murph had spent the whole season in AAA learning 1b? Odds are his numbers would be better, and we would be glowing about his recent surge in power…
or maybe he shouldn't play first base at all.
Because at best, he’ll never be more than a 1-2 WAR player at first.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
A 2 WAR player making the league minimum
is pretty valuable. Just sayin’.
You don't cheer for the Mets. You drink for the Mets.
especially when one of our top prospects
is about a year away and plays that same position. And with no great replacements in FA.
also especially when there are many other holes to fill with no players coming up in the minors and very good ones available in FA.
it's fine as a stopgap.
But what about when Davis comes up? Where does Murphy play then? Hopefully as a supersub ala DeRosa, but I’m worried Manuel will be a fucking idiot and platoon him with Davis.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
well, if he can put together solid enough numbers
he would be a very good trade candidate. I think he is going to show marked improvement next season. He may be a nice part of a trade package. Someone looking for MLB ready players.
but also, yeah, as a player off the bench. If he can play a passable 2b, it would be good. Also he can give the Ike some rest (playing everyday in the show is a grind, even a position player should get some extra off days now and then).
well, if he can put together solid enough numbers
he would be a very good trade candidate. I think he is going to show marked improvement next season. He may be a nice part of a trade package. Someone looking for MLB ready players.
but also, yeah, as a player off the bench. If he can play a passable 2b, it would be good. Also he can give the Ike some rest (playing everyday in the show is a grind, even a position player should get some extra off days now and then).
If Murphy really is as good as he has been letting on recently, trading him would be an abject decision – there just has got to be another way.
Too much of a good thing is a bad thing. Aaargh!
SOS = Same Old Sh*t
especially when one of our top prospects
is about a year away and plays that same position. And with no great replacements in FA.
also especially when there are many other holes to fill with no players coming up in the minors and very good ones available in FA.
You can never have too much depth, I like to say.
SOS = Same Old Sh*t
i agree
i just think its a matter of opportunity cost.
by focusing our attention ($) on a 1b during the off-season; when we have a debatable avg player, and players with ? marks available in FA, and one of our best prospects playing that position and about a year away… it takes away attention ($) from going after positions that we dont have a debatable avg player, and stud players (or at least better then avg) available in FA, and nobody on our farm that plays that position near the show.
This hems on my belief that Nick Johnson will get a better offer then a 1 year deal with mostly incentives. If he would sign with us for that… then we should get him instead and have murph play backup.
he does have 0.3 WAR this season
the positional change might have a effect in both hitting and fielding, but i wouldn’t expect 2 WAR. 2 would be the best possible outcome.
best?
I’d say his upside looks more like DeRosa.
And 2 WAR really isn’t much considering a .310/.420 line was enough to be above replacement level.
by METSMETSMETS on Sep 30, 2009 11:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Well
to be honest I think everyone is WAYYYY too hard on Murphy. I don’t expect him to be Mark DeRosa, I expect him to be a 1.0-2.0 WAR player over his career. But being a 2.0-4.0 WAR player I guess is conceivable while the odds are extremely against it.
Thing is, his downside of replacement level is more likely than him being a worthy major league starter at this point.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
Depends what you mean by worthy major league starter
That’s a pretty general statement. IMO, Anyone with a WAR over 1 can be starting on plenty of ball clubs. Also, I don’t see how the odds have changed much just because he had a bad first season.
So you'll believe a couple months of unsustainable data
over a full year in the bigs and his entire unimpressive minor league history?
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
I'm not saying I believe that based on these past months
and only on thse past months that he WILL become a star,
but that based on a very impressive 2008 in terms of plate discipline and general ability, and the fact that young players in fact DO GET BETTER I think that he CAN get better, and it’s reasonable to say he ends up being a slightly above average 1B, and that maybe’s there’s an outside chance that he’s fully above average.
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