The Francoeur Delusion
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Jan 10, 2010 2:50 AM EST
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PrintThough I, personally, dislike Richard Dawkins (he seemingly reeks of the same fundamentalist mindset and intolerance as those of the religious variety), and find much of his rational used in The God Delusion to be inherently flawed, given that Jeff Francoeur is apparently a vocal and outspoken Born-Again Christian, I found the title comical, applicable, and ironic.
Many amateur prognosticators, on this website, other websites, and elsewhere, as well as many ‘professional’- that is, paid- writers and observers, believe Jeff Francoeur had a good season with the Mets, and Omar Minaya’s trade for him, dealing away Ryan Church, is likely to pay big dividends for the Mets. After all, in just 75 games with the Mets, he batted .311, driving in 41 RBI, and hitting 10 HR. In a full season, those RBI and HR numbers would double, meaning he’d have 82 RBI and 20 HR. However, being skeptic of Jeff Francoeur in general, I feel beholden to taking a deeper look at things, and verifying whether or not these theoretical projections are feasible or not.
I want to take a look at is his batting average. Regardless of how a person feels about Francoeur, he did bat .311 while with the Mets. Generally speaking, a batting average over .300 is considered very good. Something is fishy here, though. I mean, in Atlanta, Francoeur was batting a measly .239. Something’s gotta be up…A ha! While Francoeur did indeed bat .311 with us, he also accrued a BABIP that was, ironically .311 as well (.336 with the Mets). In 2009, the Major League average BABIP was .299. The league average BABIP inflated itself in the later stages of the season- .289 in June, .299 in July, .306 in August, .302 in September. So, what does that mean? Jeff Francoeur’s batting average inflated itself as well because of luck, the declining quality of defense on the field because of the "grueling 162-game season", less experienced rookies because of September call-ups, and other factors.
And then, there’s his horrendous rate of walks. With the Mets, he walked eleven times, with three of those walks being intentional. So, on his own, in 289 plate appearances, he walked eight times on his own. That comes to roughly one walk every 36 times he came to the plate, giving him a Mets OBP of .338, which is pretty damn poor.
Let’s look on the bright side, though. Jeff Francoeur just turned 26. Generally speaking, he’s entering into the age (26-30) where players are at their peaks, mentally and physically, in relation to the game. Sure, he’s had some rough patches, but he’s entering into his peak, so those rough patches will be smoothed over, yes? He’s another year older, another year smarter, and he’ll adjust himself to hit for a higher batting average. He’ll adjust himself to draw more unintentional walks. With those stats better, coupled with his theoretical 82 RBI and 20 HR, we’ll be cooking. Those are pretty solid stats for a corner outfielder.
The problem lies in believing that the above will happen- that Francoeur will adjust his game to cut down on the free swinging, raising his batting average, and improving his rate of drawing walks, making him a more valuable and 'useful' baseball player.
Jeff is 26, yes, and for a baseball player, that is still fairly young. It’d be something of a mistake to call him "a kid", "young", or any other derivative thereof, in my opinion, however. He made his Major League debut in 2005, at the age of 21, and has played in at least 155 games each season since then. So, he has considerable experience playing baseball at the Major League level. When he first debuted, it took him 128 plate appearances until he drew his first unintentional walk. For an inexperienced rookie, I believe it’s alright to cut him some leeway. He didn’t "know" better, and was excited to be getting his first taste of the big leagues. The problem is, he’s performed like that his entire MLB career now. His woes manifested themselves such that, in July 2008, he was sent down to the Minor Leagues to work on improving his swing and being more selective at the plate. While he should have been making adjustments- the hallmark of a successful player- he wasn’t.
The following is a words came out of Jeff Francoeur’s mouth: "I am actually trying to learn to walk a little bit. How about that? They’ve made adjustments to me and now I have to make adjustments. It’s going to take some time to learn when they are going to let me beat them or make someone else beat them. I need patience. I’m a different hitter than Chipper Jones. He goes up looking for certain pitches to hit. I go up there looking for something over the plate and try to hit it hard…A lot of people just thought I'd be a .260 hitter all my life. I was kind of like, 'Let me make some adjustments and let me learn the game a little bit.'" As evidenced by his continued low walk rates, the work he at one point did hasn’t manifested itself in any type of noticeable result. Nor have any efforts to raise his batting average, seemingly. Look at these batting average (first graph) and walk rate (second graph) charts. Worse yet, everything seems like it's going to trend downwards as well:
So, what is the end result of all of this rambling? To hope that Jeff Francoeur will change his game, when in the past, he’s demonstrated that he’s seemingly very well set in his established ways, is somewhat irrational. There’s just no evidence to back it up. Now, that’s not saying that Jeff Francoeur isn’t a good guy, or that he doesn’t give us all plenty of chuckles, and that we’re not better off with them- a common trend, I notice, is that when people decry the stats of the Jeff Francoeurs of the world, the Alex Coras of the world, people interpret them as disliking them as people. Do I want to see him do good, and have a killer season? Yes. Do I think that'll happen? Not in the least...The odds of him suddenly improving his game such that he’s worth more considerably more than a replacement player (0.0 WAR in 2009, and a 0.8 over the past three seasons, according to Fangraphs) are extremely slim. There’s just no real evidence to hint that it’ll come to pass.
This FanPost was contributed by a member of the community and was not subject to any vetting or approval process. It does not necessarily reflect the opinions, reasoning skills, or attention to grammar and usage rules held by the editors of this site.
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Just a head's up
You ask if he will have a better or worse season in the question but the only two options are yes and no; It’s not really a yes or no question. I assume yes means better season and no means a worse season?
I assumed that
and I answered no
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
by firejerrynow on Jan 10, 2010 7:06 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah, thank you.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Jan 10, 2010 9:37 AM EST up reply actions
Bah, and I can't change it without deleting the poll.
Well, the ‘Yes’ should be ‘Better’, and the ‘No’ should be ‘Worse’…
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Jan 10, 2010 10:07 AM EST up reply actions
Oops
I answered yes because I thought he would be worse, and that technically goes under the “better or worse” yes or no question.
Gas prices today are a lot like a pitcher's ERA. Anything under 3 is amazing, under 4 is pretty good and anything 5 and up is something you want to avoid.
by Bobby Baseball on Jan 10, 2010 11:03 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah, I really dropped the ball on that one.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Jan 10, 2010 12:11 PM EST up reply actions
I answered yes
though I think it’ll be worse, because the answer to the question has to be yes, he will have a better or a worse season.
Good post
The thing about Francoeur is that he depends a lot on luck for him to be successful.
But hey, if luck is so important, than why isn’t it on the scoreboard?
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
does anybody else
remember that time jeff francoeur said on base percentage wasn’t important because it wasn’t on the scoreboard?
it just cracks me up every time i think about it or see it referenced
by inventor frank on Jan 10, 2010 1:21 PM EST up reply actions
uhh, yeah we reference that a lot
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
by firejerrynow on Jan 10, 2010 1:38 PM EST up reply actions
and i for one am just eating it up!
bravo and brava
by inventor frank on Jan 10, 2010 5:56 PM EST up reply actions
A lot of flaws in your logic
CHONE has him at 1.1 WAR next season, and Church a 0.8, so by any reasonable analysis the Mets did well in the actual trade, getting the better, younger player going forward. The question is whether he’ll be over paid by arbitration. But it’s unlikely he’d get over $4M, which is about what his projection says he’s worth.
As for your reasoning:
1. There is nothing unusual about a .311 BABIP. Francoeur’s career line is .307. One SD in true talent for a hitter is around 20 points. There are lots of true .311 or greater BABIP talents, and guys who swing hard and stike out a lot tend to have true talent BABIP over .300. Any unbiased BABIP analysis would recognize his .277 number with Atlanta as the outlier.
2. The statistical evidence on plate discipline is that on average players improve right into their mid 30s. Your argument that Francoeur is somehow different is unpersuassive.
3. You are reading a “trend” into a set of data points in which if you changed a single point, the “trend” would look like it was going in the other direction. The kid is 26, we know his talent is trending upward, barring something really unusual. If you are going to use “trends” in this way, you might as well be valuing players based on RBI and runs, it has as much validity.
4. In the part you bolded, you declared that the “problem” was believing he could improve in three areas, strikes, batting average, and walks. But you only showed the graphs for two of these. What about the third?
Look, I’m not saying the guy will be good. A guy who projects to under 1.5 WAR is guy you really don’t want to have a starting role. But his value in a properly done statistical projection (including aging curves) isn’t much different from any of the other players the Mets offered arbitration to (Maine, Pagan, Feliciano). That’s still a useful guy to have on a roster (at least until Fernando is ready).
Points
1) His .311 BABIP, while not amazingly bloated, is inflated as compared to the league average of 2009 (.299), meaning that more of his hits stemmed from luck of the draw, so to speak, than the average guy. Take away that extra margin of luck, and his batting average drops a bit. Being a player who’s game is very one-dimensional, a “hit” to his batting average, even a slight or minor hit, will have major repercussions on his usefulness as a player.
2) There is no evidence to show that his plate discipline will improve with age in any significant way, based on his past performance and personality. In five years already in the Major Leagues, he failed to make adjustments to his game, to offset his free-swinging, and lack of walks. He’s acknowledged that those are two parts of his game that needed improvement, and supposedly began working on both, but significant changes failed to manifest themselves. This leads me to believe that either (A) he can’t make the adjustments, for whatever reason (which in and of itself is extremely problematic, for both him and whatever team he’s on), or (B) he doesn’t want to/feel like/actually think he need to make the adjustments, because “OBP isn’t on the scoreboard”, and he thinks he’s doing just fine. In either case, based on what he’s shown us, and based on his aversion to change, and his lack of having picked things up in the first place, I don’t foresee significant changes to his style of play that ultimately makes him a better player. Atlanta worked with him on the matter, supposedly, extensively, and yet, in the end, gave him up for nothing, as Church was eventually non-tendered. That’s telling, especially since the people in Atlanta knew him the best.
3) As I said, I think the idea that saying that because he is 26, and entering into his prime, and, by virtue of that, is going to have his game improved such that he’s more valuable is a fallacy. That he has the potential to, certainly. Taking a look at Jose Reyes’ career, we can see a clear trend of him making adjustments and changing his game as he grew older and more baseball savvy- the most obvious improvements being more selective at the plate, and less swinging for the fences. You can see a gradual improvement from year to year. Francoeur, looking at his “growth”, I don’t see significant improvements like that. There are some minor improvements here and there, but he has a lot of zig-zagging ups-and-downs, with either marginal growth or regression. Simply getting older, I don’t believe, is a reason for those zig-zagging up-and-down gains/losses to stop, if that makes sense.
4) That reads “Cut down on his strikes, raising his batting average…”, not “cut down on strikes (and), raising his batting average…” A better phrase should be “Cut down on his free swinging”, however. I’ll go back and change that for clarity; thanks for bringing that up.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Jan 10, 2010 10:05 AM EST up reply actions
Flaws everywhere you look Brooklyn
1. HIs BABIP was .311 for the 2009 season, not just his time with the Mets. In fact, his BABIP with the Mets was .343. Jeff’s proved he’s been capable of sustaining “luck” aka BABIP in the 2005 and 2007 seasons. More importantly, he posted a .350 wOBA with the Mets, which is the closest he’s come to his .370 rookie (half) season.
2. I have no evidence that Francoeur will ever improve upon his patience aka walk rate, but the idea that he is un-coachable and unwilling to change based on personality is completely false.
Prior to 2008, Francouer was considered to be one of the top 15 , especially coming off a 40 double, 19 HR, 105 RBI season. Many look to 2005 as his rookie season, but in fact, 2006 was his first full season and his “true” rookie season, at just 22 years old. Despite displaying his raw power by hitting 29 HRs that year, his average dipped to .260 and his clutch factor halved. In 2007 though, he made strides, doubling his walk rate and posting
In 2008, his third full season, Jeff started out okay. But through May and June of 08, he struggled badly. So badly that in the first week of July, with no prior warning from his coach or GM, Jeff was sent to the minors. Considering Jeff had started every game in RF for the Braves over the past 2 and half season (382 games) and essentially had the floor ripped out from under him, you could understand him being upset. By all measures, that was the beginning of the end for Jeff in ATL. Part of this is an operational philosophy of the Braves, who believe their young, talented players and prospects should be starting and playing, not sitting on a bench… but ATL didn’t even try giving Jeff one day off before sitting him.
On his way to the minors, Jeff was told to work out his swing and that he’d be given time, but in fact, he was recalled to the majors less than a week later due to injuries… and less than a year later, he would be traded to the Mets. Clearly the organization lost faith in Jeff to turn it around in ATL, but it’s easy to see why Jeff had lost faith in his coach and his manager.
Dissecting what exactly went wrong in 2008 is difficult, especially when you consider that following the 2007, Jeff was regarded as one of the best all-around RF’s in the majors (top 15 offense and top 10 defense in 2007 season). My theory is that in spring training of 08, the Braves asked him to cut down on his K-rate, specifically by trying to wait on sliders. Jeff has mentioned in interviews how he became so afraid of getting beat by sliders that he was basically letting them beat him with fastballs instead. I know they tried adjustments to his stance, grip and stride as well. In any case, his HR rate halved from 2008 and into the beginning of 2009 and I’ll return to this very shortly…
Just to clarify something here, you say “That’s telling, especially since the people in Atlanta knew him the best.” There’s no doubt ATL’s seen the most of Jeff, both as a prospect and a major league. But to say ATL knows him best is fallacy.
Within a week of being traded to the Mets, Gary Sheffield (a former Brave from 02-03) asked Jeff to show him how he grips the bat. After doing so, Gary simply said “That’s why you’re not hitting for power.” With the new grip, Jeff’s HR rate doubled with the Mets and approached even his 06 rate. Jeff clearly is willing to accept advice and perhaps its the advice he took prior to the 08 season that led to the dreadful results.
3) The main thing about the prime years for a hitter of Francoeur’s type is power. At 27, most power hitters see a significant raise in their HR rate. For someone who posted a 29 HR at age 22 followed by a 40 double/ 19 HR season, this is significant. There is no doubt about Jeff’s power, but as Jeff enters his prime, he should be capable of 35-40 HR seasons.
Points
“I have no evidence that Francoeur will ever improve upon his patience aka walk rate, but the idea that he is un-coachable and unwilling to change based on personality is completely false.”
-Far from false, we have statements made by Jeff Francoeur himself that express his disdain for the OBP stat, “because it isn’t on the scoreboard”. Raising one’s OBP can’t in any way hurt their game. So, here we have a case of Francoeur purposefully being obstinate, and not wanting to change the way he plays the game, even when such changes can do nothing but improve his value as a player. Once more, Francoeur has had five years of Major League experience, plus however many years he spent playing amateur ball, and Minor League ball. Atlanta specifically sought to improve his game by teaching him patience and more discipline, culminating in a trip to the Minor Leagues that was cut short due to necessity. During that limited time, however, his game did not change. With it known that the team sought to improve his game by making him change certain aspects of it, his game did not change. As I said, this can either be chalked up to an inability to change and adapt, which, if this is indeed the case, will spell doom to his baseball career, or a lack of will to adopt changes recommended, which I, personally, see as a negative personality trait.
“Clearly the organization lost faith in Jeff to turn it around in ATL, but it’s easy to see why Jeff had lost faith in his coach and his manager.”
-Because he was stinking the joint up, and bruised his ego by demoting him, where he would be able to better refine his approach at the plate? Definitely a reason to doubt the organization. I know when I don’t clean my house, I get mad at everyone else for letting the place get dirty.
“There’s no doubt ATL’s seen the most of Jeff, both as a prospect and a major league. But to say ATL knows him best is fallacy.”
-So, the organization that scouted him, drafted him, weaned him into the Major Leagues, and had him on their roster for about five years doesn’t know him best, as a player? Right…Despite having given birth and raised me, my mother doesn’t really know who I am, and what I’m like, either.
“The main thing about the prime years for a hitter of Francoeur’s type is power. At 27, most power hitters see a significant raise in their HR rate. For someone who posted a 29 HR at age 22 followed by a 40 double/ 19 HR season, this is significant. There is no doubt about Jeff’s power, but as Jeff enters his prime, he should be capable of 35-40 HR seasons.”
-I don’t think that even the biggest Francoeur fan will say that he’s capable of hitting 35-40 home runs in a single season.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Jan 10, 2010 1:38 PM EST up reply actions
A few things.
Francoeur has been -27.7 runs batting and 27.8 runs fielding in his career (with a -32.6 positional adjustment.) Most of his value has come from his fielding. Francoeur has a career 4.8 BB%, .311/.432/.743 slash line, .161 ISO, .317 wOBA, and 93 wRC. As noted before, Frenchy’s avg has fluctuated, his BB% decreased, and K% decreased. His % of balls outside the strike zone has stayed the same and his contact % has increased over the last 3 years. His contact % in the zone went from his usual 81% to 76% in 2008. He has improved his contact % outside of the zone all the way up to 66% this year (career 58%). With a .311 BABIP, he had a .313 wOBA, and 0.0 WAR. If he would have had average defense he would have been 0.6 WAR. Frenchy is simply not very good. He hasn’t been good in the past and no one projects him to do better in the future, except MLB DW. It’s OK to hope he does better, but to expect it would be silly.
Big fallacy
“Raising one’s OBP can’t in any way hurt their game.”
This is simply not true. Every hitter in baseball has some ability to trade off between OBP and power. Being more aggressive, using a longer swing, and swinging harder will increase power. Being more patient, shortening the swing, and just trying to put the ball in play increases OBP. Because everyone has different talents, the ideal balance between the two is different for each batter. The best approach for Jeff Francoeur will not necessarily be the best approach for Josh Thole.
Moreover, we know that contrary to popular myth, on base percentage is not more important than slugging. If you want statistical evidence of this, I have a somewhat clever (sort of) proof. If you look at the last 5 years of data (I used 2004-2008), the standard deviation for on base percentage is .035. The standard deviation for slugging is .069. So the difference in scale is .069/.035=1.97. So this means that we need to multiply OBP by 1.97 just to put it on the same scale as SLG.
But, the multiplier which produces the closest fit with runs scored if more like 1.85. So we can even say that slugging appears to be slightly more important than getting on base. Since 1.97/1.85=1.065, we can say it even appears that slugging is about 6.5% more important.
Is there any reason we should expect this ratio to be near to one? Well yeah, as I mentioned, every hitter has some ability to trade off between the two. We would expect this ratio to approach one if hitters are making the optimal trade offs. What this evidence really suggests is that in the aggregate, todays hitters are likely worrying slightly too much about getting on base and not making outs.
What about Francoeur? You say that he failed to reduce his free-swinging and increase his walks in Atlanta. But the evidence to me suggests he was successful in making those adjustments. Look at the following percentages:
BB XBH HR so/bb hr/fb if/fb
4.0 12.8 5.1 5.27 13.2 12 2005
3.4 08.6 4.2 5.74 12.6 18 2006
6.0 08.5 2.7 3.07 07.8 17 2007
6.0 07.2 1.7 2.85 04.9 16 2008
3.7 05.9 1.5 3.83 03.7 12 2009 Braves
3.6 10.4 3.3 4.18 07.1 13 2009 Mets
It is quite clear that Francoeur was successful in increasing his walk rate as requested, by employing a more patient approach. In fact, his walk rate increased 70%, after averaging only 3.5% over his first 2 seasons. And his so/bb rate fell 46%. Moreover, the dramatic drops in HR rate, extra base hits, and HR per fly ball are all further evidence he reduced what you call “free-swinging”. The problem is this was a bad tradeoff.
Francouer is an above average defender. We know that UZR last season is wildly in error, underestimating all Met outfielders, so ignore the single season number. But career data from both UZR and total zone have him a +6 right fielder. With a -7.5 positional adjustment, he only needs to be a +1.5 bat to be a league average player.
Even assuming he keeps the walk rate near career lows, he only needs to slug about .470 to do that. Even the CHONE forecast which has him only slugging .435 is probably underestimating him. CHONE doesn’t know anything about adjustments or what approach he is using. It looks like as long as Francoeur is told to be a free-swinger, and not worry about walking, he is capable of delivering near +2 WAR.
This is the first I'm hearing of on base percentage NOT being more important than slugging.
Everything I’ve read is the on base percentage is just under twice as important than slugging. And I’m not sure I understand your reasoning either.
The Mets lobby Omar for a plan, and his plan, he likes his plan. The problem is that he didn't write his plan down 'cause that makes it paperwork, and that’s false hustle... Know what I’m sayin’?
It's a matter of scale not importance
A POINT of OBP is 1.85 times as valuable as a POINT of slugging, but they are on a different scale. It’s actually twice as easy to get an additional point of slugging.
This should really be a fanpost/shot, you have lots of interesting if controversial points
I don’t understand how the (league wide?) standard deviation of slugging and obp is relevant . You need more explanation. The number of inside-the-park homeruns can be very volatile year-to-year, but that doesn’t really say anything about it’s correlation to runs scored.
I’m not sure I trust a hitter to optimize his team’s runs scored. Home runs draw big cheers from the crowd and a big pay day, walks draw polite applause and quiet respect from sabermetric types.
by DoghouseBlues on Jan 11, 2010 8:47 AM EST up reply actions
standard deviation
The point of the standard deviation is that it shows how much it varies within a population. So if league average OBP is .333, and league average SLG is .420, you will find as many people with a .368 OBP (35 points over average) as you will with a .489 SLG (69 points over average). Or in the other direction, as many people with a .298 OBP as with a .351 SLG.
If you want to make a judgment about VALUE of the two skills, you need to consider this distribution of these talents in the population.
inside-the-park HR
Inside the park HR are volatile due to small sample. So the actual number for a player in one season is a poor measure of his skill.
Here though, I’m looking only at qualifying hitters, so about 150 hitters in any one year will have enough PA to qualify. Then I’m looking at the deviation between hitters. The standard deviations don’t really change much year to year.
OBP SLG
.0328 .0664 2008
.0350 .0672 2007
.0335 .0710 2006
.0332 .0680 2005
.0379 .0722 2004
-——————————
.03447 .06897 – 5 year average
That’s actually a ratio of 2:1 almost exactly. I got 1.97 from rounding it to .069/.035.
CHONE doesn't know what adjustments Francoeur makes, but either do we.
His defense is probably not +6, because that includes data from 4 and 5 years ago. That is a long time. Frenchy is capable of 2 WAR, but a lesser number is more likely.
Francoeur will never ever
hit 40 home runs
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
by firejerrynow on Jan 10, 2010 1:39 PM EST up reply actions
I have more faith Reyes will hit 40 than Suckouer
John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.
Suckoeur?
I like it.
The Mets lobby Omar for a plan, and his plan, he likes his plan. The problem is that he didn't write his plan down 'cause that makes it paperwork, and that’s false hustle... Know what I’m sayin’?
Suckoeu/Failcoeur both work
but shh don’t let Metsmerized hear you
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
by firejerrynow on Jan 10, 2010 4:27 PM EST up reply actions
Compared with Pagen, Church, tatis, Valdez, Evans
Suckoeur is pretty good
He would at least be much better than the guy playing in Atlanta
Pagan and Church are both better than Francoeur
Evans probably would be, and Tatis used to be.
The Mets lobby Omar for a plan, and his plan, he likes his plan. The problem is that he didn't write his plan down 'cause that makes it paperwork, and that’s false hustle... Know what I’m sayin’?
And Tatis was better last year
The Mets lobby Omar for a plan, and his plan, he likes his plan. The problem is that he didn't write his plan down 'cause that makes it paperwork, and that’s false hustle... Know what I’m sayin’?
lets look at NY last year
Church at NY was 280/332/375
Francoeur 311/338/498
Pagen 306/350/487
Tatis 282/339/438
Tatis and Churh had a lower OBP than Francoeur, and Pagens OPS is the same as Francoeur
The other difference, they are all older than Francoeur
And we have not talked about defense
Wow
I didn’t know we get to throw out half a year’s worth of data. Let’s look at the entire 2009
Francoeur- .313 wOBA; 6.1 UZR .317 wOBA; 3.2 UZR
Church
Pagan- .358 wOBA; 5.8 UZR
Tatis- . 338 wOBA; 0.7 UZR (1B), -0.1 UZR (2B), 1.0 UZR (3B), 0.0 UZR (SS), 2.1 UZR (OF)
The UZR totals are a small sample size, especially Tatis’ totals.
Looks like Francoeur was the worst of the four last season.
The Mets lobby Omar for a plan, and his plan, he likes his plan. The problem is that he didn't write his plan down 'cause that makes it paperwork, and that’s false hustle... Know what I’m sayin’?
The phantom strike through finally hits me
Oh the despair!
The Mets lobby Omar for a plan, and his plan, he likes his plan. The problem is that he didn't write his plan down 'cause that makes it paperwork, and that’s false hustle... Know what I’m sayin’?
It's probably good for frenchy
that we haven’t talked about defense in citi
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
BABIP isn't excsively a function of luck for hitters
David Wright’s career BABIP is .350. Does that mean for his career, he’s 5% luckier than the average player? And Francoeur has improved in one area: contact hitting. His K% has dropped pretty consistently since he first came up.
I gotta agree with acer on this one, Francoeur is not someone we expect to be replacement level, and in fact he’s a useful player, though below average, but with a non-prohibitive salary, someone worth having on the roster. Its not likely his plate discipline will improve, but that limits his value, it doesn’t make him valueless. He does have some strong tools. If you go by +/- he’s one of the better defensive RFs in the game, and aside from BABIP fluctuations, the bit hit his production took the last couple years was his power. His HR/FB dropped pretty low in at Atlanta, but that’s also the one skill he demonstrated once he came over in the trade, and he does deserve credit for that. If his HR/FB gets back to his career rate, or even a bit better, he’s a pretty productive hitter, despite the frequency of outs.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Jan 10, 2010 2:15 PM EST up reply actions
LEAVE FRENCHY ALONE
"I only wanted a few things out of life -- a wife, children, to play baseball and to hunt deer." - Turk Wendell
by Rey-O on Jan 10, 2010 11:09 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
I myself like him.
Maybe just because he’s a grinder, has heart, and will play hurt. Something I’m not use to seeing as a Met fan.
Not doing that, and still putting up good stats is less good?
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Jan 25, 2010 11:19 PM EST up reply actions
Oh we gonna rock down to Francoeur Avenue
You don't cheer for the Mets. You drink for the Mets.
Francoeur Avenue™
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
by firejerrynow on Jan 10, 2010 11:57 AM EST up reply actions
There, I fixed the poll. That sucked.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Jan 10, 2010 12:39 PM EST reply actions
Meh
I voted better.
MIght as well be optimistic for a change, since everything else is going to hell in a hand basket.
you know what I'm sayin' ?
I would have voted that he would produce at exactly the same level if that was an option.
In the end I voted better, because I felt that getting the same type of performance out of him fell closer to that option.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Jan 10, 2010 1:00 PM EST reply actions
I would have voted the same too but went better out hope that he is now at least councious of OB%
But I really don’t think a player with 5 years MLB experience can help himself with pitch recognition and swing/don’t swing decisions in the tiny amount of time a hitter has to decide. It’s in his DNA (or brain or whatever) to swing at everything and even if he is able to change that somehow it might have an effect on him elsewhere. Some players can be effective swinging at everything (like Vlad) and for what he gave the Expos and Angels it was worth it but it also affects the pitches the guy in front of him see’s because why pitch to him if the next guy is likely to get himself out? Plus Bobby Cox giving up on a young player speaks much louder than anything else.
Me too.
Guy is one of the greatest philosophical thinkers of all time. His oration is truly superb as is his use of logic.
I can understand someone not enjoying “The God Delusion” because of some hyperbole and diatribe but in the whole it is a thought provoking and insightful book.
Asking a General Manager to slim down his budget is like asking an alcoholic to blow up a distillery.
by scott from peekskill on Jan 10, 2010 5:08 PM EST up reply actions
I voted better
I’d say he’d stay around the same level if that was an option though
Dude gets a lot of hate around here. Walks aren’t everything. If he can get on base in other ways, then why does it matter?
A "Zeile" for avoiding outs
By other ways, I assume you mean "hitting"?
Because, problem is, he doesn’t get on base through hitting alone to rectify his inability to get on base with walks.
"He's definitely mixing it into his repertoire. That's French for 'repertoire' " - Keith Hernandez
by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Jan 10, 2010 4:12 PM EST up reply actions
Mauer, Ichiro and maybe Hanley
are the only players who would have been valuable without a single walk last season.
The Mets lobby Omar for a plan, and his plan, he likes his plan. The problem is that he didn't write his plan down 'cause that makes it paperwork, and that’s false hustle... Know what I’m sayin’?
Who's that guy that plays first in St. Louis?
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Jan 10, 2010 4:37 PM EST up reply actions
Touche
But Pujols loses a lot of value if his OBP goes from .443 to .327.
The Mets lobby Omar for a plan, and his plan, he likes his plan. The problem is that he didn't write his plan down 'cause that makes it paperwork, and that’s false hustle... Know what I’m sayin’?
See this doesn't make sense to me.
If you’re going to bat .400, sure, you don’t ever have to walk. You’d be more valuable if you did, but you’re still getting on base roughly 40% of the time. But even if you’re batting .300, and you don’t walk at all, you’re still making an out 70% of the time. The most basic goal of any at bat or a hitter is to not make an out in your plate appearances, and a walk is never an out.
The Mets lobby Omar for a plan, and his plan, he likes his plan. The problem is that he didn't write his plan down 'cause that makes it paperwork, and that’s false hustle... Know what I’m sayin’?
the goal is to get hits of course
but if you’re never given a pitch thats hittable, you shouldnt be swinging at them, because it won’t end in a hit, and you’ll strike out, as opposed to getting a free base.
by KeithsMoustache on Jan 10, 2010 5:07 PM EST up reply actions
c'mon man
I thought you were better than this.
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
by firejerrynow on Jan 10, 2010 5:35 PM EST up reply actions
no the goal should be to not produce outs
whether you do that by getting a hit or taking a walk is irrelevant.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
I think the goal is the get runs
we can get 27 hit/walk in 9 innings and loses 1-0
you can get 27 hits
yeah, because the guys coming up after those hits/walked swung at pitches in the dirt and grounded into double plays, or swung at pitches above their heads and strike out.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
the only thing that can stop you from scoring a run
is an out
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
That's too logical
The Mets lobby Omar for a plan, and his plan, he likes his plan. The problem is that he didn't write his plan down 'cause that makes it paperwork, and that’s false hustle... Know what I’m sayin’?
Actually it is possible for a team
to not ground into any force out and double plays
walk 27 times, get 27 outs and have a OBP of 500 and not score a run
The idea is to still score runs, if you get 2 hits on 2 homers you can have horrible OBP and still win games 2-0 or 2-1
the idea of getting runs is better than walks
If you hit 2 homers every game
then you don’t ever have to walk. Of course your OBP will still be between .400 and .500, but still, you don’t have to walk.
The Mets lobby Omar for a plan, and his plan, he likes his plan. The problem is that he didn't write his plan down 'cause that makes it paperwork, and that’s false hustle... Know what I’m sayin’?
And if a batted ball hits the runner
The runner is out and the batter is credited with a hit. You got a better chance to hit Mega Millions and Powerball the same week, but it is theoretically possible to do it for an entire game and not score a run.
"I've been trying transcendental meditation, and that helps me be passive and wait on the curve. I've got to find something else to hit the slider." - George (The Stork) Theodore
If only
there was some stat that properly weighted the value of walks and different types of hits…
You don't cheer for the Mets. You drink for the Mets.
Omar probably goes the bed contemplating this every night
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
by Gina on Jan 13, 2010 1:20 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
walks = singles as far as end result
so are singles overrated too?
by KeithsMoustache on Jan 10, 2010 5:04 PM EST up reply actions
Singles are still better some of the time
They move over base runners or drive them in, but the end result for the batter is that he is standing on first base.
The Mets lobby Omar for a plan, and his plan, he likes his plan. The problem is that he didn't write his plan down 'cause that makes it paperwork, and that’s false hustle... Know what I’m sayin’?
true, i was thinking with nobody on base, poorly thought out on my part
but nonetheless walks replace those at-bats where you didn’t get a pitch worth trying to hit, so they’re bonus bases.
by KeithsMoustache on Jan 10, 2010 5:08 PM EST up reply actions
I knew what you were saying
Just felt like typing that out
The Mets lobby Omar for a plan, and his plan, he likes his plan. The problem is that he didn't write his plan down 'cause that makes it paperwork, and that’s false hustle... Know what I’m sayin’?
if he boosts his HR totals to hit 30 or so a year
I wouldnt give a shit if he walked 0 times
A "Zeile" for avoiding outs
he won't hit 30 though
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
by firejerrynow on Jan 10, 2010 4:29 PM EST up reply actions
you say that now, let him hit 30 hrs and walk zero times while batting 250-260
and see how quickly you change your mind. Without walks you just don’t tend to get enough opportunities to score runs which is kind of the point of baseball.
by KeithsMoustache on Jan 10, 2010 5:06 PM EST up reply actions
if benjie walked every at bat
he’d still get stranded at first every time, because the odds of him reaching 2nd base before an ice age starts, a glacier forms in canada somewhere, and then migrates south to destroy the stadium are vanishingly small.
by KeithsMoustache on Jan 11, 2010 10:01 AM EST up reply actions
He's not a .250 hitter
He has a career .271 average, and has steadily improved his strikeout rate which should boost his average. By now he’s likely a true .280 hitter or better.
You can estimate batting average as ((1-SO%-HR%)*BABIP)+HR%
If Francoeur can maintain the SO rate at 15%, the HR rate at 3.5%, and the BABIP at .310:
((1-.15-.035)*.310)+.035=.288
Even with that he’s a below average player. In 600 PA in that scenario he hits around 21 HR, probably 30 doubles (an xbh% of 8.5%) , but also only draws maybe 21 walks and a couple HBP. He ends up around .285/.315/.450. That ends up a -2.5 run bat, on top of the -7.5 positional adjustment, but he’s also at least a +2.5 glove bringing him to 1.25 WAR. That’s a fairly realistic forecast.
The thing is, if instead he’s a 25 HR guy, the extra 4 HR add 5.6 runs. Everyone focuses on the walks, but there isn’t likely to be a dramatic improvement there. I believe the walks will improve slightly in time to where he’s at a respectable .320 OBP, but the real key for Francoeur will be how much power is ultimately there. He’s fully capable of becoming a regular 25+ HR player, in which case he might even end up a respectable starter.
sure but what if he's a 15 Hr guy, which is within error of his usual rate
and his glove drops a few points. then it starts to get really murky as to whether or not he even maintains a postiive WAR. He’s too close to the border of a negative player and his skillset is too volatile for him to be an every day player. Any given season he stands to be either slightly positive or slightly negative by WAR. This is on average a replacement level player. He hasn’t actually posted a positive WAR for a whole season since his remarkable 2007 campaign. I think this rosy outlook that he’ll be a 1-2 WAR player has been buoyed largely on his high BABIP during his brief tenure as a Met.
by KeithsMoustache on Jan 11, 2010 10:06 AM EST up reply actions
Disagree
I agree you shouldn’t count on him to be an everyday player. I’d like to see Pagan out there over Francoeur a good part of the time. But on average he’s at least a +1 WAR player. That 2007 season is only 2 seasons ago.
And BABIP to some degree is a skill for hitters. I agree it will fluctuate wildly, but he seems to be fluctuating around a 1-1.5 WAR, not replacement level. His good seasons haven’t been slightly positive, they’ve been over 3.0 WAR. Over his career, he has actually averaged 1.3 WAR per 600 PA, and some of his underlying ratios have improved (especially his reduced K%).
To me, there’s maybe a 25% chance he’s only a replacement level guy, but also at least a 25% he’s actually good, not just adequate. It was only a year and a half that he really struggled. On Baseball-Reference, his most similar batter at age 22 was Duke Snider. His most similar batters through age 25 includes two other Hall of Famers.
Would you have wanted this guy on your team? He was only walking at a 4.8% rate (and it was declining), and had a .309 OBP after 2000 PA.
I don’t think we know what Frenchie’s upside really is yet. If he can keep that xbh% over 9% (career 8.5%), he’s a decent starter even with a 4.5% walk rate.
That 2007 season is mostly based on his 17.1 fielding runs
And he’s not going to be worth that many runs defensively again.
The Mets lobby Omar for a plan, and his plan, he likes his plan. The problem is that he didn't write his plan down 'cause that makes it paperwork, and that’s false hustle... Know what I’m sayin’?
Even still, we can try to figure out what he needs to do to be an average player
Lets assume his defense and walk rate are constants. His defense is +5 runs per 150 games. We can also estimate the value of his walk rate relative to average. A NIBB% of 3.7% is 22 unintentional walks in 600 PAs. Average NIBB%ate in the NL in 2009 was about 8.2%, or about 49.2 walks for 600 PAs. The run value of a walk (inside the book) is .62. (22 *.62) – (49.2 * .62) = -16.86. Add the five defensive runs, and that’s -11.86, then the -7.5 positional adjustment and its -19.61. Basically, if the remaining total of Francoeur’s production is league average, he is replacement level.
But the remaining variables are the rest of Francoeur’s offensive components. Francoeur’s HR% is just a tad under 3% for his career, while it was just a tad under 2.5% in the NL this year. Over 600 PAs, that’s 18 HR – 15 lgHR = 3, 3 * 1.70 =5.1 runs above average, again using the run value of a homer from Inside the Book. +/- 1 HR changes that figure by 1.70 runs. If he hits 20 HR, that’s 8.5 RAA, 25 and you can double that number. If he hits 15, its 0. This is where the bulk of Francoeur’s upside lies and where we can expect much his value to be tied up. Before factoring anything else, we know that if Frenchy hits 15 HR and is average in the remaining offensive run values, he’s a 0 WAR player, but if he hits 25, he’s a 1.7 WAR player, nearly average. At 20, he’s 0.9 WAR. His projections call for 18, both James and CHONE, in a bit over 600 PAs, so just a tad below his career rate, but those are also park adjusted while I haven’t accounted for that.
Onto the rest, he’s also above average in 2B%. He’s about 5% for his career, league average in 2009 was 4.6%. Over 600 PAs, that’s 30 2Bs – 27.6 2Bs = 2.4 2Bs, 2.4 * 1.08 = 2.592. CHONE projects even better, a 5.3 2B%, or 32.4 doubles in 600 PAs worth 5.184 RAA. +/- 1 2B changes that value by 1.08. If he hits 35 doubles, its 7.992 runs above average, if he hits 25 doubles its 2.841 RAA. For his career he’s about half a triple worse than average, so that doesn’t really change much, but we can estimate it as -0.685 runs. Now, at 25 HR he’s an above average player, even with just 30 doubles. At 25 HR and 35 2Bs and he’s 2.5 WAR. At 20 HR and 30 doubles, he’s about 1.2 WAR. At 18 HR and 32 doubles, we’re very close to 1 WAR and we haven’t factored in singles yet. Frenchy’s career 1B% is about 16.7, the league’s was 15.2 in 2009. Per 600 PAs, that’s 100.2 – 91.2 = 10. 10 * .77 = 7.7. CHONE and James both project him to be even slightly better than this rate, but even just using 7.7 runs, now even at 18 HR and 32 2B, he’s about 1.8 WAR, which is basically the difference between his CHONE projection with -2 fielding runs and our initial assumption that he was more like +5, and its also very close to average. If he hits 25 HR and 35 2B, he’s back to 3 WAR, and he’s nowhere close to 17.1 runs defensively. That seems like a much more likely path for him to 3 WAR than a monster defensive year. Its still unlikely, but that may look something like his 90th percentile projection, a wOBA ~.350, a batting line something like .315 / .350 / .520, and a BABIP a bit below .340. None likely, but all well within the realm of possibility. Mean projection puts his wOBA closer to .315.320 (CHONE and James are both above .320 but also project below average defense), which would be about 1 WAR, BABIP closer to .300. If he busts, he’s a bit below replacement level. If I’m a big market club without a better option, I’m absolutely gambling $4-5 million on those outcomes. And Pagan may project slightly better, but that doesn’t mean all his outcomes are. They may be, but its really hard to say he’s a considerably better gamble.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Jan 11, 2010 5:08 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Damn phantom strikethrough
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Jan 11, 2010 5:09 PM EST up reply actions
Besides Matt Murton
Who is no longer available, what other comparable players are available? Only one I count is Rocco Baldelli, who could be similarly productive (if not more) given enough playing time.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Jan 18, 2010 12:46 AM EST up reply actions
I said this lower down
Rocco Baldelli, Gabe Gross, Matt Murton (who’s in Japan now), Endy Chavez (its close), Reed Johnson, and Rick Ankiel are probably better than Francoeur
i agree with you, there is a 25 percent chance he's replacement level
and 25 percent chance he has a good year. This leaves by your math a 50% chance he sucks.
by KeithsMoustache on Jan 11, 2010 3:21 PM EST up reply actions
What do you mean by sucks?
I think he’s saying those are the extreme ends of the outcome spectrum. Are you saying sucks as in “Below replacement” or as “Between replacement level and average”. Sure, a 1 WAR player isn’t very good, but when no options are significantly better, and the cost is $4 million, its not a terrible thing to gamble on. If there’s a better way of spending that money, fine, but I’m not sure that’s the case. Pagan is too fragile to rely on, even if his projection is slightly better, and having them both on the roster is better than having just one. The difference in total output with both is very unlikely to be less than it would be if it was Pagan and a replacement level player, such as Jeremy Reed or Corey Sullivan, even if it means Pagan gets to start more games.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Jan 11, 2010 5:12 PM EST up reply actions
I was actually just poking fun at how his percentages don't add up to anything meaningful
I agree Pagan isn’t the guy to play 162 games, and I’ve said before Francoeur for cheap is a reasonable investment, but I don’t think he should be a starting outfielder everyday.
by KeithsMoustache on Jan 11, 2010 5:17 PM EST up reply actions
the title of this post is really cool
its like one of those 70’s consipiracy movies or a Robert Ludlum novel. The Parallax View, The Bourne Indentity, The Holacroft Covenant, The Francoeur Delusion..
by Endys Game on Jan 10, 2010 5:06 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Cut him loose and bring back Endy as our #4 outfielder and give pagan a shot in RF.
Asking a General Manager to slim down his budget is like asking an alcoholic to blow up a distillery.
by scott from peekskill on Jan 10, 2010 5:29 PM EST reply actions
Francoeur sucks
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
by firejerrynow on Jan 10, 2010 6:28 PM EST up reply actions
i do realise that
But he will be back in March and he is covered by Evans until he is ready
Asking a General Manager to slim down his budget is like asking an alcoholic to blow up a distillery.
by scott from peekskill on Jan 10, 2010 6:51 PM EST up reply actions
"covered by Evans"
no one is covered by Evans… anyone who thinks Evans is a reasonable solution anywhere now is delusional
A "Zeile" for avoiding outs
if i can get the rest of a band together
i’d consider it, although it does sound a little … well… gross. I’d be more likely to call it the title of this post.
by KeithsMoustache on Jan 11, 2010 11:22 AM EST up reply actions
As a 4th outfielder?
Are you kidding? If Evans can’t fill in 3 innings then he shouldn’t be on a MLB team! And for 1-2 months while Chavez is rehabbing he will only be a stop gap. When Chavez is ready Evans can got to AAA or bench.
Asking a General Manager to slim down his budget is like asking an alcoholic to blow up a distillery.
by scott from peekskill on Jan 10, 2010 8:32 PM EST up reply actions
Who
IS this Evans fellow about whom you keep talking?
by LeiterMilnerFasterStronger on Jan 11, 2010 6:14 PM EST up reply actions
I think he's like some batboy
trying to be a catcher
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
by firejerrynow on Jan 11, 2010 6:59 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Thats why he may be available on a minor league deal.
He’s an injury risk with no risk.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Jan 10, 2010 7:03 PM EST up reply actions
So many haters. I think the guy has a lot of heart. I also believe Francoeur can one day hit 40 bombs. Don’t forget baseball is entertainment, support the team-or disappear into your angry little world. Let’s go Mets! All the more gratifying to watch all you sewer-rats try and climb on board when the Mets are in 1st come Sept.
by strawspoonage on Jan 10, 2010 9:07 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
If you support the team you're upset when a GM does something that hurts the team
We all want Frenchy to do well, he seems like a decent enough guy, and if he hit 40 home runs next year we would all be ecstatic, and nobody is cheering for him to do badly. What makes us upset is it’s more likely the guy will hit 15 homers, bat 270, and have an on base percentage around .300 which is atrocious while having less than stellar range in the field. We can all hope for rainbows and sunshine and unicorns, but when you come down to the reality of it, Frenchy just isn’t likely to be better than a 4th outfielder. I still think for a cheap deal he’s a good guy to have, but he shouldn’t be locked into a starting position in RF because he just isn’t good enough to warrant that kind of dedication to him. May he spend the rest of his days as a Met proving me wrong, but until he does, I’ll continue to wonder why we’re blindly sticking with him.
by KeithsMoustache on Jan 10, 2010 9:43 PM EST up reply actions
I agree with you but...
i dont agree that Frenchy is a below average fielder. Even last year in Atl he had an above average UZR. First we know they have no data on how citifield plays to compare to. He is an above average fielder according to UZR except for 2 years ( and last year needs to be taken with a grain of salt, theres is no way he was adam dunn bad in right with a UZR/150 of 19 as a met). And we also know that he is an above average fielder in regards to +/. According to hardball times he was in the top 10 from 06-08 of % of balls played in his zone as well.
Yeah but it's not like his fielding numbers just dipped with no explanation
they dipped when he bulked up to become more of a slugger, so while it’s possible they were just an abberation, and it’s possible that bulking up destroyed his range and now he really is a below average fielder, one of the year he was still a + fielder was entirely because of his arm his range rating fell hugely.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
this is the impression I get
i heard someone describe his running style as “running in molasses” since he started bulking up and that seems pretty accurate to me. I think his putting on a lot of bulk muscle has hurt his range and how well he breaks on a ball when its hit.
by KeithsMoustache on Jan 10, 2010 11:22 PM EST up reply actions
Although actually some sources have reported he dropped the weight
in order to gain back last off-season, and his range rating did improve in Atlanta, it was still well below where it was earlier in his career but much better than 08, but it still wasn’t enough of a bounce back for him to return his above average value from 06/07.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
"We can all hope for rainbows and sunshine and unicorns"
Too bad Matt Murton went to Japan.
by Michkin on Jan 11, 2010 5:54 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
That's the greatest picture ever
The Mets lobby Omar for a plan, and his plan, he likes his plan. The problem is that he didn't write his plan down 'cause that makes it paperwork, and that’s false hustle... Know what I’m sayin’?
if only we had gotten him
everything would have been ok
by KeithsMoustache on Jan 11, 2010 10:06 AM EST up reply actions
This is the essential point. Francoeur is miscast as a regular.
A number of failing teams are going to keep giving him chances to get 600 PAs as long as he’s inexpensive, with his salary under $4m or so. There will be room for him to recapture the “magic” in Pittsburgh and KC after he wears out his welcome with the Mets.
Our problem will come if his BABIP is in the neighborhood of .340 for 2010 and Minaya is still the GM. There’s nothing to make me believe that Omar is aware of that stat, so Francouer’s line of .300/.340/.480 will look awfully good to the FO. Couple that with Francoeur’s durablity and he’s likely to get 25HRs and 90RBIs with that slash line. Then we’re looking at something like a 3/20 contract.
by SeanSchirmer on Jan 11, 2010 5:43 PM EST up reply actions
But if fans support teams monetarily regardless of their performance
what incentive would teams have to improve?
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
because teams that make the playoffs make more money from their fans
plus all the money they get from the pseudo-fans when a team suddenly gets hot and they start popping out of the woodwork.
by KeithsMoustache on Jan 11, 2010 2:41 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah teams that make the play-offs make more money from their fans
but I’m saying if they didn’t have that incentive why do it. Like I know the Rangers attendance/money barely fluctuates regardless of their records/whether they make the play-offs, so for a team like that what incentive is there to invest money back into the team.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
its tough with the Rangers, they're a bit of an oddity
But with most teams, if they don’t look like they’re putting forth any effort to compete or improve the fans get pretty annoyed. Plus its hard to sell merchandise when your players are a bunch of no names. You need to keep a few guys around for the fan base to get excited about just for that alone, and those players won’t come to/stay with a team that has no intention of trying to compete (most players want a shot at a ring) unless you dump huge amounts of money into those few players to keep them around in spite of how bad the team around them is, in which case it cuts into profits anyway.
by KeithsMoustache on Jan 11, 2010 3:25 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah my point was more
why should fans continue to support their team monetarily if they’re not satisfied with the product being put on the field, if we all just blindly went to games and bought merchandise no matter how incompetent they were there would be no incentive for them to change.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
oh ideally the fans shouldn't give them their money if they're failing to make it worth the expenditure, i totally agreeren't w
but its hard to give up something that you grow up with. I know now matter how infuriated with this team I get (and judging by the fact i’m still here I clearly have a high tolerance) I’ll still turn on the game after work pretty much every day, and try to make at least a few trips to see them play live. This was as true for me in years like 1993 and 2009 as it was in 2000 or 2006. MLB management gets away with more than they should because baseball is very hard to walk away from for real fans. Fortunately a large portion of the market is made based on filling the stadiums with people who only care when their team is winning, which keeps them somewhat honest (even if some of their fan base isn’t). Management kind of has the advantage here because i’d rather watch bad baseball than no baseball at all. unfortunately our only input is our dollar, but the owners hold a commodity (major league baseball) that we can’t get anywhere else, so ultimately our actual input is limited.
by KeithsMoustache on Jan 11, 2010 5:01 PM EST up reply actions
It is tough.
I even have a respectable out, since my family on my dad’s side is from Boston and he was a huge sports fan and Celtics and Red Sox fan as a kid. I could easily divert my allegiance until the Wilpons sell. For some reason, though, I’m finding that difficult to do. It’s like wanting a marriage to work. It hasn’t been great, but there were some good years, and even a couple of great years, a while back. That babe from Boston beckons, but even though things are awful right now I can’t quite make the break.
by SeanSchirmer on Jan 13, 2010 1:44 AM EST up reply actions
There are owners that don't invest the money back into the team and just pocket the profit.
This will net them slightly higher profits today but can lead to diminishing fanbase and lower revenues in the future.
dude
sewer rats? Climb on board? You’re serious?
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
by firejerrynow on Jan 11, 2010 7:02 PM EST up reply actions
Serious? Completely. I enjoy creative banter as much as anyone, but you seem to have all the answers, and dispute anybody else’s opinions to the end. Seriously, “fire jerry now” do you actually like the Mets? Or do you just crave opportunities to complain about things out of your control? This isn’t exactly politics dude. If Francoeur hits 20-25 HR’s, and the likes of Jose, Beltran, and Johan stay healthy what will you bitch about then? Get a new hobby, or maybe even a job. Baseball is entertainment friends, whining is for babies.
by strawspoonage on Jan 11, 2010 9:13 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Yeah, "fire jerry now"...
You’re a cyborg. You can’t make any decisions the old fashioned way, but just watching the game. Instead, you have to calculate numbers and come up with these numeric solutions. I bet you’re even the same kind of person who criticizes Mets management for their decisions. Why don’t you sit back and watch a few games, talk to a few people, and maybe you’ll learn a little something about what players are good, and what players aren’t. Old school is still the best school, fool!
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Jan 11, 2010 10:00 PM EST up reply actions
you sond like Bayonne Mets fan
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
by firejerrynow on Jan 12, 2010 6:41 AM EST up reply actions
actually if i'm not mistaken its the birthright of Mets fans
to complain about things out of our control.
by KeithsMoustache on Jan 11, 2010 10:10 PM EST up reply actions
yeah, I like the mets
I was questioning your choice words
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
by firejerrynow on Jan 12, 2010 6:41 AM EST up reply actions
of course I agree
But since he thinks Francoeur will hit 40 bombs and anybody who isn’t 100% bullish on the Mets is a sewer rat, I am assuming he is pretty pumped up and ready to go to a bunch of games this year.
No lose situation
I think the Mets are in a great situation with Francoeur – either he starts hitting his prime and improves on his numbers from 2009 – hits say .311 for the season with 25 home runs and 100 rbi, or he doesn’t, and he keeps the spot warm for Fernando. Either way, it’s not like the Mets are paying him $16mil a season. So the question is – is it possible Francoeur can have a year like that? Clearly it is, since he’s done it already. Was it worth trading Church for him? I think that’s a resounding yes. Church was a poor man’s Francoeur, but 5 years older. And again, if he bombs, or even just has an average Francoeur year, we wait and see how Fernando does in AAA – hopefully proving he’s ready.
We lose if he hits
.280/.310/.420 with 15 homers and 75 RsBI, because to Omar and Jerry and the average fan those are solid numbers.
The Mets lobby Omar for a plan, and his plan, he likes his plan. The problem is that he didn't write his plan down 'cause that makes it paperwork, and that’s false hustle... Know what I’m sayin’?
unless he puts those numbers up in limited PAs as a 4th outfielder
then its not so bad.
by KeithsMoustache on Jan 11, 2010 11:30 AM EST up reply actions
Pretty tough to get 15 HRs and 75 RBIs as a part-timer,
and if he’s putting up those numbers in 400PAs, the club is going to give him 600PAs, to you can’t win for losing, imo.
by SeanSchirmer on Jan 11, 2010 5:45 PM EST up reply actions
you can't win with Francoeur
because you’ll either have a really horrible season, or you’ll have a great BABIP fueled season, and he gets a 3/36 extension, and then has 2 horrible years before having a great 3rd year, again BABIP fueled, and gets another extension.
Apocalypse now.
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
by firejerrynow on Jan 11, 2010 7:06 PM EST up reply actions
You're just a crazed pessimist, firejerrynow.
No way that extension is more than 3/35.
Actually, if he puts up another BABIP fueled 2005 or 2007, 3/20 wouldn’t surprise me at all. It buys out his last arb year and his first two years of free agency. If the team believes he’s an authentic .310/.345/.480 guy with okay defense, grit, affability, 25 homers and 90 ribbies, I don’t think there’s any way they wouldn’t do that deal. They’d see him as a guy who turned it around in the year and a half since he came to Citi.
by SeanSchirmer on Jan 12, 2010 1:18 AM EST up reply actions
and thats why we can't win
I know he won’t get 3/36, but with Omar, anything is possible
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
by firejerrynow on Jan 12, 2010 6:32 AM EST up reply actions
You know, it just occurred to me that Francouer might be right for the Mets. It's like a religious experience, a revelation.
Francouer’s upside is indeed 3 WAR. He’s done it twice, and he just might pull it out of his… hat one more time, in 2010. The Mets have real improvements still to make in the rotation and at 1b, 2b, and C. Let’s imagine for the sake of this thought experiment that Francoeur is momentarily unsigned, then let’s further imagine that his agent has offered Francouer’s services in RF for one year to the Mets for a figure in the neighborhood of $3.8 million. Whether you think Francouer should be signed for RF for 2010 depends entirely on how many wins you think the team is currently worth on paper. If you believe that it’s an 80 win team, as I do, and suspect that the FO is only going to spend at most $20m more, then the prospect of getting 3 marginal wins for $3.8 million is an offer you cannot refuse. If you think the team as currently constructed is closer to something like 86 wins, and that with $20m the Mets can buy five or so reasonably certain wins at the market rate of around $4m per win, then gambling on Francouer is a mistake, and the team should aim for certainty rather than upside.
Yeah the problem isn't gambling for one year
it’s the inevitable extension well above market value if he hits that gamble. Omar can’t let go of no names when they accidentally stumble into a good season, imagine what he’d do when a 25 year old former big time prospect does it. He’ll resign him to a 10 year extension, trade F-mart, since he’ll have the corners locked up, and pat himself on the back.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
Or only 3/20, if we're lucky.
Oh. And with a vesting option!
by SeanSchirmer on Jan 12, 2010 10:03 PM EST up reply actions
The only problem is that Francoeur has to play to reach his potential
and most likely he will be bad.
So the fact that JF is likely the only guy on the team that has a better 2nd half can be attributed to luck and the grueling 162 season? I guess the rest of our players suck more then. I liked Church but he sucked last year, we got the better of the deal.
"So the fact that JF is likely the only guy on the team that has a better 2nd half can be attributed to luck and the grueling 162 season?"
Yes. God knows, he didn’t randomly change the way he plays baseball. The Braves tried that for a while, and were rewarded with no noticeable improvements, leaving only two conclusions: He couldn’t change (which severely limits his baseball skills, in not being able to adapt, which is a very, very bad thing for a ballplayer), or he didn’t want to change (which seems to be the more likely of the two, given certain past quotable comments). This is the thesis of the Fanpost: He’s not magically going to change and put up a batting average of over .300, raise his OBP to a more sustainable level, or the hit magical 40+ home runs mentioned earlier.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Jan 17, 2010 9:51 PM EST up reply actions
I'm still laughing at this comment:
“We all want Frenchy to do well…and nobody is cheering for him to do badly.”
Um, yeah. Let’s run a poll for how many people here are roooting for Francouer. I think it’s safe to say that 95% of posters here are praying for him to fail miserably. Maybe 99%.
Francoeur joked about OBP. Salman Rushdie has a better chance of gaining forgiveness.
I want him to fail miserably
because I know if he has a BABIP awesome year Omar will trade all our outfield prospects and give Frenchy a ten year extension.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
I think you're misunderstanding how people feel.
What do people WANT Frenchy to do? Play well, of course. That will help the Mets. However, in order to play well, he would have to change his entire approach to hitting. I don’t think there’s a single (albeit snarky) soul on this site who DOESN’T want Jeffy to become John Olerud at the plate, but I’m 99.9999999% sure it’s just not happening.
John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.
exactly my point
Frenchy failing doesn’t do us any good, but its the most likely outcome. I’d love to see him keep his BABIP fueled killing spree going as long as he’s in a Mets uni, but thats pretty unlikely to happen.
by KeithsMoustache on Jan 16, 2010 11:22 PM EST up reply actions
It is possible
that his defense could return, his range had rebouded, not to where it was early in his career but to almost average in atlanta, then fell back off a cliff when he came here but that could be because of adjusting to the weirdness of citifield. If he could provide 0-5+ defense I wonder how that would affect his value.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
true his defense is as big a question mark as his hitting
he has a huge range of possible values because of how much all of his skills seem to fluctuate. If we get both in phase, he’ll be a decent player, if they’re out of phase, we can get a truly awful player, and anything in between is possible.
by KeithsMoustache on Jan 17, 2010 12:13 AM EST up reply actions
exactly, as long as he's in that uniform
I don’t care how much he’s over-producing, as long as he keeps doing it while in the Mets uniform. I just wish we didn’t have to depend on a player eternally playing above his talent level.
by KeithsMoustache on Jan 17, 2010 1:01 PM EST up reply actions
it doesn't have to be eternally....
it only needs to be for 3 years. we can throw away the vest.
you know what I'm sayin' ?
What about those who think he COULD BE good?
I just don’t believe that there were any legitimately better options out there—save for Cameron, who’s making about double what Francoeur will make in 2010, and is locked in through 2011 as well. I’m perfectly comfortable taking an opportunity on Frenchy, hoping that this past half season wasn’t a fluke, and waiting for Jayson Werth to hit the market in 2011. Now I’m aware of Omar’s tendecy to hold on to players for too long, but that’s an indictment on Omar himself. You can’t hold that against Francoeur. Let’s be grateful that Omar didn’t tender him a contract this offseason, and hope pray that he doesn’t do anything stupid for the remainder of his tenure here.
Also, about Pagan: There is no way I’m making him the everyday RF over Frenchy. At the most I’d platoon him. He just isn’t durable enough, for me to depend on him to be an everyday starter, over the course of an entire season. Even if he doesn’t get injured down the road, I believe that his production will impede from playing everyday.
Pagan played pretty much everyday when he was healthy last year.
If Pagan is by all measurements better than Frenchy why shouldn’t he play. Now, if Frenchy plays against LHP, that is fine, if he is actually better than Pagan against LHP.
The thing is there are better options than Francoeur. Rocco Baldelli, Gabe Gross, Matt Murton (who’s in Japan now), Endy Chavez (its close), Reed Johnson, and Rick Ankiel are probably better than Francoeur. Those are just the current FA.
He played everyday...until he got injured.
The same happened in 2007. Also, Pagan is not better than Francoeur by all measurements. Francoeur’s a bigger power threat—which the Mets need more so, than a purely on-base hitter—and also has a better outfield arm—which is useful in keeping opposing baserunners from crossing home, especially from second. Now I haven’t heard anything from Francoeur, during his time in NY, that suggests that he’s still as stubborn as he was in ATL. If he listens to the help and advice that he’s getting from Hojo and Wright, and does what is necessary to improve his overall offensive game, then I believe he’ll be the better fit for the lineup. The best thing to do, as of right now, would probably be to start with a platoon and decide who should be the everyday starter down the line. We could get a better idea of this as soon as Spring Training, though. Also, I don’t see how any of the players you mentioned are better options than Francoeur. The only one who I’d say is all around equal to him is Ankiel, and he’s got the same problems with plate discipline as Francoeur. I’d take Chavez over Pagan for a platoon, but not as a replacement over Francoeur; that would be about the same as giving Pagan the everyday job.
A team never needs a power threat over an on base hitter
when the power hit can even get on base 1/3 plate appearances. Plus he’s not even that big of a power threat, he MAY hit 25 homers, he MAY also hit just 15.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
I wouldn't prefer a power hitter, who can't get on base to save his life...
and I’m well aware that’s what Francoeur is right now. If he can balance out power and getting on base, however, I’ll take that over Pagan—and I know that’s a huge “if”.
One thing I think we can all agree on is that Spring Training will be the moment of truth for both of these guys.
I wouldn't agree on
there’s not really much that could happen in Spring Training that’s going to make a difference in the make up of two guys who have been professional baseball players for years. It’s really unlikely that will find out anything more/less than we already know right now, unless one tears their acl and is out for the year. And considering the Braves tried to work with Frenchy on his plate discipline, for multiple years, and he’s still just as bad as he was I’m not sure what reasons there are to believe he’s going to suddenly learn to balance it.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
I can agree with that argument...
You could say that I’m really anxious to see what Francoeur can do, because we’ve seen—in Atlanta—what he can do in a great season.
It’s no secret that Spring Training perfomance is no indicator of how a player will perform in the regular season but, if two players know that they’re competing with one another for a starting job, I don’t see how they won’t try to make a case for themselves.
Pagan played everyday before he got injured
so why not play him everyday until he gets injured. Pagan is better in all offensive projections and defensive projections. I don’t think its correct to assume that Francoeur is learning and is getting better. Then every player should have the same assumption.
All give you one example of how the players I mentioned were better. Gabe Gross- .325 career wOBA, 16.3 UZR/150 in the OF (including 408.1 innings in CF). Francoeur- .317 career wOBA, 6.2 UZR/150 in the OF (3 innings in CF).
But why risk a player getting injured...
by playing him everyday, when you can also get solid production from him—through an entire season—off the bench. Also there’s the suspicion that he may regress, late in the season, due to fatigue. No matter how talented a player is, taking a chance like that before it becomes necessary is counter-productive IMO.
Cause at this point with beltran out
it is necessary.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
Well given the Mets don't acquire any real additional outfielders...
we’re very likely stuck with an outfield of Bay-Pagan-Francoeur, so neither guy is getting a job over the other. They’re both in the lineup because the Mets have no other choice. Now when Beltran returns, unless Pagan is decisively outperforming him, I’d stick with Francoeur in RF.
How do you know that making Pagan play part time will help avoid injuries.
Just simply by having less chances to get injured, or because it puts less stress on his body. I don’t know if that’s true.
I also don't like to use career stats...
when comparing players in terms of what production you’ll get in the upcoming season. I think it’s more accurate to look at the past three seasons, that way any production trends over recent years is taken into account. If the stats still support the argument, then I’ll agree with you nonetheless
Well Frenchy best offensive, and defensive seasons
were at the beginning of his career, so I’m not sure how the stats wouldn’t support the argument since he’s been getting worse and worse.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
OK,
Gabe Gross- CHONE projected .328 wOBA, Steve Sommers projected 7.34 UZR/150 in RF.
Jeff Francoeur- CHONE projected .327 wOBA, Steve Sommers projected -0.22 UZR/150 RF.
Bill James wOBA-
Gross- .330
Francoeur- .324
Marcel wOBA-
Gross- .325
Francoeur- .319
OK...I'm sold.
If the Mets go out and sign a guy like Gabe Gross, I’m all for playing him over Francoeur.
weak sauce
is exactly what projecting UZR/150 is worth.
http://www.amazinavenue.com/2009/12/16/1202859/point-of-contention-jeff
You're confusing cheering and prognosticating, methinks.
We all want the team to do well. By proxy, that means we want all of the players who make up the team to do well. What we want, and what we expect, don’t have to match. I may want the Mets to win the NL East, but I don’t expect it, assuming that no teams fall prey to massive, cataclysmic injuries like we did last season, using rosters as they are composed this exact second. Likewise, it’d be great if Francoeur hits .311, with an OBP of .375, and 40 home runs. There’s a more likely chance of hell freezing over, however.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Jan 17, 2010 9:53 PM EST up reply actions
The Mets needed Cameron much more than Francouer
because Beltran’s not being able to play a full season was likely even before the latest surgery. An OF of Bay, Pagan and Francoeur isn’t going to be nearly enough to compensate for the holes at 1b, 2b, and C, and it’s below average defensively. Who’s the 4th OFer with Pagan in the lineup?
Pagan and Francoeur are above average
defenders.
http://www.amazinavenue.com/2009/12/16/1202859/point-of-contention-jeff
The 4th OFer at this point is combination of Tatis, Murphy and Evans at this point unless the Mets sign someone else… or maybe Kirk will play his way up.
Mike Cameron wouldn’t of signed with the Mets, even if the Mets could have offered him the starting CF spot.
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