Where We Are Now

They can’t distinguish between injuries to a pitcher’s pitching elbow (more likely to recur) versus a one time acl tear that can be fully repaired through arthoscopic surgery. They don’t distinguish between injuries that knocked a pitcher out for the first half of the season as against the second half of a season, clearly a problem since if you’re hoping for a good performance the year after an injury you’d much, much rather have a pitcher who was hurt in the first half of the season, came back, and threw 100 solid innings than one who threw well then got hurt at the all star break and didn’t throw after that. The first pitcher is probably fine. The second may never pitch again, for all you know. Any system that doesn’t take that kind of thing into account can’t be worth the electrons it’s printed on. CHONE doesn’t look at medical reports, MRIs, and so on. It has essentially no value when it comes to predicting playing time for injured pitchers.

What I believe is entirely unrealistic is that all three of Maine, Perez, and Niese are going to come back and not only pitch around 128 innings each in the majors (which none of them did in 2009), but pitch effectively enough to stay in the rotation with an ERA no worse than 4.50 (and above which you’d have to think seriously about slotting in Figueroa). I have to think, given their serious injuries/disastrous performances, and very limited or extremely erratic track records, none of them is as good as 50-50 to throw 125 innings with an ERA 4.50 or better. That means as a group they’re at best one in eight to give an adequate (and nowhere near good) performance. Next, getting decent performance from only two of them is a one in four proposition. Another thing you may not be giving enough weight to is that none of the three have any real upside in 2010. None of them is going to put up an ERA of 3.80 in 180 innings. So what you’re hoping for is mediocrity. That’s your upside,and you’d be lucky to get even that.

It makes a lot of sense to me to try Maine, Niese and Perez as 5th starters or in the cases of Maine and Niese, in long relief while we find out if Perez is ever going to be a productive pitcher again. Counting on them for nearly 400 innings of respectable pitching is begging for trouble. There’s no way a big market team should be going into a season with two complete question marks in the rotation on top of its best starter coming off his second pitching elbow injury and a new acquisition who just had a lucky year, and never mind the guy with the 5.03 ERA whose true talent level is probably league average, if we’re fortunate.

That was what I figured. Only reason I feel for him a little bit is because even during his 70 bomb season a lot of speculation was going on that he was using some sort of PED’s. I was like 10 at the time and I remember he has the lotion or cream next to his locker and all that, but nobody cared, because he and Sammy Sosa were pretty much saving baseball. Same thing to a certain extent with Bonds, I mean, attendance wasn’t an issue then but people loved the long ball and baseball thrived. Only years later did Selig and the rest of the people responsible for the steroid witch hunt launch all of these investigations. To wipe the egg off their own faces.

They stood by, smiled and watched this all happen when it was helping bring baseball back, when Big Mac and Sosa were selling out every stadium they showed up at, people hoping to see a long bomb or witness history. We saw McGwire in commercials, “chicks dig the long ball”, Sosa was a hero, with the whole “baseball been very very good to me” thing. Then when Selig didn’t need them anymore he crucified them.

I can tell you that I sincerely doubt they have any interest in Murphy. I’m sure they’d trade Doumit, but you’d have to headline the return with something more enticing than Murphy.