Enough About Angel Pagan's Baseball IQ
Apologies for straying from the Carlos Beltran imbroglio.
There are platitudes which seemingly must be re-hashed every time certain players are referenced in any form of media. Some examples:
Jose Reyes - As Reyes goes, the Mets go.
Jeff Francoeur - Gritty, full of potential and he actually gives a (expletive deleted), unlike those other loser Mets.
Daniel Murphy - Ditto Francoeur, but throw in something about a potential 2010 rebound and his questionable defensive acumen.
Mike Pelfrey - A head case. Can't shake the yips. Will he ever reach his potential? He's lawst!
It's generally annoying, especially when the bromide makes no sense. Like this for example:
Angel Pagan - Good player, but his poor baseball I.Q. severely limits his value.
This sentiment is not altogether baseless. Pagan made multiple mental errors this past season, and those semi-major mistakes stuck in the minds of Mets fans. It's the phenomenon of letting high profile events shape one's perception of a player; it's the ultimate small sample size abuse. Matt Holliday's nad-catch, Carlos Beltran vs. Adam Wainwright, Daniel Murphy's outfield adventures, Derek Jeter's flip-play in Oakland -- these are examples of such events. Nevermind that Holliday is a perfectly capable fielder; that Beltran's numbers have been as good, or better, in clutch situations than his overall numbers; that Murphy might have value as a utility player who can handle himself capably in the outfield; that Jeter is basically the same great player in clutch situations as he is in all situations.
Back to Pagan. His misadventures have some fans "less worried about [his] health, and more worried about boneheaded plays that costs them [the Mets] runs/games" and lamenting being "stuck with Pagan." Of course it would be preferable if Pagan didn't make those mistakes -- that is indisputable. But the notion that his purported mental deficiencies should preclude him from playing over lesser players is laughable. Heck, Pagan just might have been the Mets most valuable position player in 2009 and he only played 88 games. By my calculation, he was 2nd in WAR only to David Wright. WAR isn't infallible and he likely played over his head last season, but that time Pagan forgot to run to 2nd base didn't drive down his value to the point where one would prefer to play Jeremy Reed in his stead.
Various baserunning statistics portray Pagan as above average. The numbers would probably be even better without the brainfarts, but objectively he is a more valuable baserunner than most of the current Mets. He might sometimes take an odd route to a fly ball but he rates above average defensively. He also rarely makes errors, if that's how you measure defensive ability. This might sound like an endorsement of playing sloppy baseball as long as talent can compensate for the paucity of fundamentals. It isn't. It's just a request of Mets fans to stop bringing up Pagan's allegedly poor intelligence, as if it's on par with being bad at baseball. Especially when a certain starting outfielder, who is generally more highly regarded than Pagan, had his share of mishaps last season. Also, the grittiest, guttiest player in the NL East threw his hands up to signal ground-rule double in a game back in August (Not knowing the ground rules? Brain malfunction of the year!), leading to an inside-the-park home run by none other than Mr. Pagan. There are an infinite number of anecdotal examples but the point has been made.
Would it be nice if Pagan and the Mets played more mentally and fundamentally sound baseball? Yes, of course. But the same could be said by fans of every team in MLB. No player is flawless. Except Mike Cameron. Let's build a time machine and sign Cameron.
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Comments
Viva La Pagan!
"Those who fear disorder more than injustice inevitably produce more of both." -- Rev. William Coffin
One thing I will add
from personal experience. I went to six Met games last year and I think Pagan played in five of them. I am very happy with the way he plays, and won’t be too worried about him filling in for Voltron for two months (though I do think that the Mets should now sign Branyon to platoon with Murph and at least threaten some power). Anyway, one observation of Pagan is that his is very twitchy in the field. He never stops moving, talking to himself, talking to the other outfielders, signing to the bullpen, etc. He seems to be one of those people who is very uncomfortable with silence/standing still. This gives the impression, perhaps, that he isn’t concentrating, but I think it might just be his way of keeping himself focused. Anyway, enough amateur psychology, whatever works, right? And the stats say it does work.
Why sign a lefty to platoon with a lefty?
If Branyan is signed, I’d guess it’s not a platoon situation.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
F!, I think
Of course Francoeur and Bay both have experience there…
If there's ever a riot at Citi Field and Oliver Perez was the starter, I started the riot.
People act as if
Mental errors are harder to correct than terminal shitiness, aka, Francoeur’s Disease.
In there minds, it’s easier for Francoeur to become a good baseball player, something he’s never been, than it is for a guy who hasn’t played a ton of baseball to cut out a couple of baserunning blunders.
by firejerrymanuel on Jan 15, 2010 7:44 AM EST reply actions 4 recs
Yes!
We've got ourselves a ball club, the Mets of New York town!
by kingcritical on Jan 15, 2010 8:01 AM EST up reply actions
Rec'd
"He's definitely mixing it into his repertoire. That's French for 'repertoire' " - Keith Hernandez
by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Jan 15, 2010 9:01 AM EST up reply actions
so true
although my complaint with Pagan is more in his missing the cutoff man and throwing to the wrong base sort of mistakes, but I agree, easily fixable problems. The baserunning blunders are just a function of him being a very fast baserunner who hasn’t learned the ins and outs of baserunning yet.
by KeithsMoustache on Jan 15, 2010 10:46 AM EST up reply actions
I doubt they're fixable,
since he’s 28. If he doesn’t hit the cutoff man routinely by now, he ain’t gonna start.
But the pont is, and it’s a good one, that it doesn’t matter. If he misses the cutoff man four times in a season because he’s throwing to the wrong base it’s no different in terms of runs allowed and consequent wins and losses than if he had a weaker arm and simply threw short of the cutoff man instead..
I don’t know why bonehead plays aggravate most of us more than plays not made because a player just doesn’t have the skills, the arm strength, perfect depth perception, and so on, but they do. The point for me is to get past that, accept that baseball smarts aren’t part of this particular player’s skill set, and evaluate him according to what he does and doesn’t do, rather than what I think he should do.
by SeanSchirmer on Jan 17, 2010 5:38 PM EST up reply actions
its worse to watch a player with the potential to be very good to make mistakes within his control that hurt his value
than to watch a player who you know doesn’t have the potential to be more than average do whats expected. Pagan has all the skills to be a good player, but he makes some glaring mistakes. That said I agree his few mistakes over the course of the season probably won’t make or break a team, but if you have a bunch of players who all have the same tendency it starts to build up as we saw last season.
by KeithsMoustache on Jan 17, 2010 11:37 PM EST up reply actions
Don't forget how David Wright has a bloated contract, and that he's no leader.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Jan 15, 2010 8:44 AM EST reply actions
Yeah, but James, you probably missed that one time that Pagan screwed up on the bases and/or in the field.
You were too busy reading spreadsheets in your mom’s basement.
"He's definitely mixing it into his repertoire. That's French for 'repertoire' " - Keith Hernandez
by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Jan 15, 2010 8:53 AM EST reply actions
I've actually never seen him play
Couldn’t pick him out of a lineup if I had to
by James Kannengieser on Jan 15, 2010 9:01 AM EST up reply actions
The perception vs. reality manifesto.
http://www.capitolavenueclub.com/
by PWHjort on Jan 15, 2010 10:40 AM EST via mobile reply actions
I'm more concerned
that Pagan will probably regress some from his career year last year. The mistakes he made last year are easily correctable. He was probablya little bit lucky to have his numbers as high as they were. I’d still expect him to be a valuable 4th OF and an adequate fill in for Beltran while he’s on the DL. Just don’t expect him to have another ~3 WAR season.
You don't cheer for the Mets. You drink for the Mets.
yeah his .352 BABIP is probably a bit unsustainable
but I expect him to put up respectable numbers out there.
by KeithsMoustache on Jan 15, 2010 10:55 AM EST up reply actions
Agreed
I think that CHONE projection up on Fangraphs is pretty reasonable.
by James Kannengieser on Jan 15, 2010 11:07 AM EST up reply actions
Correct me if I'm wrong here,
but isn’t having a “bad baseball IQ” more of an indictment on the coaches and management over the player?
If the team continues to play the perception/platitude game, we will almost never develop any late-blooming talent and just continue to play the “safe” bets who have minimal upside.
by Jamesir Bensonmum on Jan 15, 2010 11:08 AM EST reply actions
?
why no?
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
I'd say yes.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Jan 15, 2010 11:57 AM EST up reply actions
Baseball just isn't that tough.
Hitting the cutoff man is a matter of knowledge and awareness. The knowledge isn’t anything tricky, it’s simply a matter of common sense and a little memorization. Awareness is up to the player
It’s one thing if none of that is emphasized by a team’s minor league clubs, but even if it isn’t a player with a little initiative can figure this out, or find a sympathetic coach, or buy a dvd…
by SeanSchirmer on Jan 17, 2010 7:09 PM EST up reply actions
But what about that one time he forgot to run to second?
Indisputable evidence! I say trade him for Yuniesky Betancourt. Now that guy’s a gamer
DON'T GIVE OMAR IDEAS
or we’ll actually do this trade and then let Jose walk because he’s immature and has no respect for the game.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
Pagan's not the answer in CF.
He’s utterly miscast as a regular, is unlikely to hold up over a full season, just had his BABIP fueled career year, and so on. Like Franky he’s a good 4th OFer. I doubt he can hold up for two months full time, let alone six months.
You might be able to get away with Pagan playing 4-5 days a week for two months but the Mets have never been good at pacing players. I suspect they’ll run him into the ground and we’ll wind up with a whole lot of lineups featuring Francouer in CF.
Frenchy in CF
Bay in LF and who in RF????
If I go to a mets game I’m gonna be sure to bring my glove, they might need me to suit up.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
Might as well leave FR vacant, cause it's not gonna matter much with that outfield...
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Jan 17, 2010 10:48 PM EST up reply actions
I'm guessing Daniel (Audie [as in duck them bullets]) Murphy
unless the Mets pick up a glove guy for the 5th OF slot.
What’s the OF depth going to be as of opening day?
LF Bay
CF Pagan
RF Francoeur
4th OFer Murphy?
5th OFer Evans?
So much for Omar putting together some depth this offseason, but I suppose it really was unforseeable that Beltran might be out for a week at some point.
But then who's at first?
Since we haven’t resigned Tatis yet.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
I guess it would have to be Carter (ouch).
I’m amazed, sort of, that we haven’t come to terms with Tatis.
That’s how thin the roster still is, in spite of the lessons and debacle of last year. That if Beltran, who missed half of last season, is out for a while and one OF starter needs a day off we’re running Murphy to a position he demonstrated he can’t really handle, (and putting Bay or Francoeur in center when Pagan needs the inevitable day off) and starting at first a guy who we don’t even know can defend the position.
by SeanSchirmer on Jan 17, 2010 7:18 PM EST up reply actions
Lol maybe thats why Omar signed Coste and Blanco
he plans on having Molina fill in at first base some.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
I wonder if that ever happened way back when
that a club like the Cleveland Spiders ever had to grab a fan out of the stands to fill in. Think I heard something about that once upon a time.
Not sure if they actually did that,
but I remember reading in Baseball Anecdotes that they let the bartender from their hotel pitch a game for them. He did about as badly as you might expect, which is to say, no worse than any Spiders pitcher.
by BobbyV_Incognito on Jan 17, 2010 8:24 PM EST up reply actions
Just thought of something...
can they get old Spiders uniforms to wear the next Throwback Night?
"I've been trying transcendental meditation, and that helps me be passive and wait on the curve. I've got to find something else to hit the slider." - George (The Stork) Theodore
the spiders weren't bad because of bad management
they were bad because they were owned by the same guy who owned another team, so he’s have double the talent pool to choose from ,then he traded between the teams to make one good team out of the two of them. This is why its now not allowed for one owner to own two teams by MLB rules. The Spiders were awful by design, not by any fault of the players or manager. The owner pretty much built them as a feeder team.
by KeithsMoustache on Jan 17, 2010 11:39 PM EST up reply actions
I did not know that.
Wasn’t KC pretty much the Yankees’ farm team back in the 50s and early 60s? Not the same owners but I read there was some grumbling over how the A’s too often sent the Yankees good players in return for 27 year old prospects.
by SeanSchirmer on Jan 18, 2010 2:40 PM EST up reply actions
Something like that.
The A’s also tended to send players back to the Yankees after they’d played in KC for a while and were about to hit their prime. A’s owner Arnold Johnson had a very chummy relationship with some of the Yankees’ owners (I think they had a separate business relationship), and the two teams did make some fairly one-sided trades during the 50’s. A couple of years back, someone (I think Neyer, since this is his kind of thing), re-examined the trades and decided that they weren’t as bad as they looked.
by BobbyV_Incognito on Jan 18, 2010 9:08 PM EST up reply actions
In theory you're right that it should easier
for someone to improve on mental errors as opposed to physical deficiencies. But in practice this is not always so. You get people at “real” jobs who make the same bonehead errors all the time. And let’s not forget certain manager/GM types who also make the same mistakes over and over again..are these correctable or not?
"I've been trying transcendental meditation, and that helps me be passive and wait on the curve. I've got to find something else to hit the slider." - George (The Stork) Theodore

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