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Is There Any Hope For Luis Castillo's Defense?

It appears Luis Castillo will be the Mets' primary second baseman in 2010, despite reported attempts by the front office to trade him this offseason. Moving Castillo for basically anything (except Gary Matthews Jr.) and targeting Felipe Lopez or Adam Kennedy was/is the smart play, but there haven't been any recent trade rumblings or free agency rumors. So here we are with our man Luis. The elephant in the room is his glove. After several years of decline, his defense seems prepared to fall off the Cliffs Of Moher. Observe three of our favorite defensive statistics' evaluations of the $25 million man:

Star-divide

2007 2008 2009 Total
UZR 1.7 -4.7 -10.4 -13.4
+/- -6 -13 -11 -30
TZ -11 -13 -6 -30

One year of defensive stats can often be written off as noise. Three consecutive years of poor play is hard to ignore. The Fan's Scouting Report also delivers some unimpressive marks and I think most Met fans would agree that his defense was lacking. Optimistically, Castillo's SB Nation profile blurbs the following:

Assets: Has good speed and quick feet, which helps to give him range on defense

The first part of that scouting report is reasonable, given his stolen base and baserunning numbers. Respect to SBN, but calling his range an asset is a colossal stretch. What are the chances that Castillo is anything less than disastrous in the field? Slim, likely, but the following factors might make you say "So you're telling me there's a chance?".

Conditioning

Derek Jeter experienced something of a defensive rejuvenation the last couple seasons. After many years of pitiful play, in which he deservingly earned the nickname "past-a-diving", he improved in 2008 and was more than adequate in 2009. Statistics, scouts, fawning members of the mainstream media -- all generally agreed on the improvement. As Bryan Hoch noted, 35 year-old Jeter spent the last two seasons working on his athleticism and mobility. One wonders why it took so long to work on an obviously lacking aspect of his game, but the takeaway is that 34 year-old Castillo might not be a totally lost cause. Of course, he entered last spring training in-the-best-shape-of-his life. This lead to his finest offensive season in four years, but an awful defensive one. A 2010 with Castillo in anything but the best shape could be catastrophic. Maybe the Mets need to bring in a conditioning coach who specializes in helping players improve their lateral movement. I have no suggestions for such a coach but apparently the Yankees employed one with Jeter.

Positioning

This is an often overlooked facet of defense. I hate to bring up Jeter again but "aggressive defensive positioning" by Yankees infield coach Mick Kelleher was listed as another reason for the shortstop's improvement. John Dewan, proprietor of the Plus/Minus system, wrote the following at The Hardball Times on employing defensive shifts:

Aside from the three fielders at third base (who combine for a +51 plus/minus), we observe a general trend: the group of infielders with the largest LHB/RHB differences had a higher plus/minus score than the group that shifted the least.

Click through to read the entire article, but basically his data seems to suggest that infielders (especially 2nd basemen) who shift dramatically performed better defensively. I didn't chart Castillo defensively this season, nor am I a scout qualified to accurately assess defensive performances. However, take a look at how he has performed on batted balls to his left and right, according to Plus/Minus:

Castillo_defense_medium

That's +22 to his right and -39 to his left, for those who can't read spray-can. Granted much of that positive to-his-right was years ago, but he still appears to be shakier when going to his left. Perhaps some "drastic shifting", to quote Dewan, is in order. Something -- anything -- to save Castillo's defense and the ERA of the Mets pitching staff.

Recent injuries, age and having one leg longer than the other are hindrances to a Castillo defensive renaissance. There's optimism and there's being realistic. A conservative defensive projection is something like -6. Given this, a ~1.7 WAR season looks like Castillo's ceiling, with reality about a half win lower. Improved positioning, based on analysis of Castillo's weaknesses, scouting reports of hitters and the general "expertise" of the coaching staff, is what we can hope for.

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Two more years. Just two more years, unless we can find someone to swindle.

"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.

by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Jan 21, 2010 11:06 AM EST reply actions  

The Jeter comp is excellent

I’ve been thinking about this ever since I read Rob Neyer quote this article on Jeter’s “transformation”: http://www.northjersey.com/sports/OConnor_How_Jeter_got_younger_at_age_35.html

Neyer’s Blog:
http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/795/derek-jeter-s-amazing-transformation

If Jeter can dedicate himself to improving his defensive range to his left….why can’t Omar drive Castillo over to the same trainers?

by MangoMetsFan on Jan 21, 2010 11:53 AM EST reply actions  

This is a good point.

We should go the full Pravda on players that suck. This means that other GMs will be fooled.

"He's definitely mixing it into his repertoire. That's French for 'repertoire' " - Keith Hernandez

by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Jan 21, 2010 12:43 PM EST up reply actions  

alas, we live in the shadows

(This isn’t talking politics, per se, don’t worry:) I was looking at TPM yesterday and when shit was going down a flood of average readers called up reps like Barney Frank, reported their (aggressive, scolding) conversations with them, and when Barney later talked to TPM itself he used it as the forum to backtrack on his statements and suggest he could still come around to the TPM view.

Man, politics blogs suck so much harder than this one! Why can’t we get that treatment from our objects of love and enmity? (even if it proves hollow, would be fun.)

by letsgocyclones on Jan 21, 2010 12:57 PM EST up reply actions  

no, but how many times can the same thing be said?

i feel bad for the dead horse at this point. Sheesh, we know all about Castillo…. but it’s not like clicking your heels 3 times is gonna suddenly going to cause one of the other GMs to covet LC. I mean, deal with it…. no team wants Castillo…. there is not one situation where he’s wanted or that there isn’t at least a couple of younger alternatives.

Either the Mets are going to have to eat the contract and we know how unlikely that is or any other possibility of moving LC is going to have to include us adding prospects and probably taking back another contract obligation. There just are very few possibilities of this all coming together. Add to all of this that it’s like the worst kept secret in baseball that the Mets want to dump LC….

by ThnkGoodnessforHowieRose on Jan 21, 2010 12:57 PM EST reply actions  

i think i'd rather be stuck with him

than send prospects to get rid of him, since there’s so many other holes in the way of competing at this point anyway.

"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'

it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.

by Gina on Jan 21, 2010 12:59 PM EST up reply actions  

who gives a darn about the difference btw TZ and uzr?!

omg…. this is an insufferable exercise if the point is that LC may not be as bad as some people are saying, etc…. jeez, the whole Castillo thing is getting beat to death. Look, it was an awful contract before the ink was dry. The Mets need to release him but they won’t. eos. and I was never one who thought his glove was terrible… not even close… one of LC’s strong points is that he has very sure hands (pop-ups against the Yankees aside) and turns a nifty DP…. sure his range has dimished….

the big issue with LC has always been that he’s a singles hitter so even though he may get on base at a good clip, he never gets past 1B… he’s got absolutely no XB power and it’s very hard to bury a guy like that in an NL lineup and then add that we’re not getting much pop from our catcher or 1Bman either…. and it’s not a pretty picture.

by ThnkGoodnessforHowieRose on Jan 21, 2010 4:30 PM EST up reply actions  

So, what you're saying is:

Less player analysis on AA?

"He's definitely mixing it into his repertoire. That's French for 'repertoire' " - Keith Hernandez

by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Jan 21, 2010 4:39 PM EST up reply actions  

no, just less excrutiating analysis on Luis Castillo.

jeez, it’s enough with trying to put makeup on this pig…. it’s still a pig no matter what we do.

by ThnkGoodnessforHowieRose on Jan 21, 2010 6:23 PM EST up reply actions  

Less Castillo, More Frenchy!

You don't cheer for the Mets. You drink for the Mets.

by Kevin H on Jan 21, 2010 7:38 PM EST up reply actions  

Did you read the post?

It’s whole point was to provide a fresh perspective and liven up the horse.

by letsgocyclones on Jan 21, 2010 12:59 PM EST up reply actions  

DEFENSIVE STATS MAKE MY BRAIN HURT!!!!

Ugh…

One says he was ok, then got bad, then got really bad
One says he was bad, then got really bad, then got a little better but still pretty bad
One says he was pretty bad, then got really bad, then got better but still bad

2/3 says he got better last year then the year prior… so it shouldn’t be to big a stretch to say he could get better this year.

by gbaked on Jan 21, 2010 2:06 PM EST reply actions  

which ones say he got better?

"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'

it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.

by Gina on Jan 21, 2010 2:08 PM EST up reply actions  

Oh yeah I missed tz at the top of the post

but meh im not sure how useful tz has proven to be for infielders.

"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'

it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.

by Gina on Jan 21, 2010 3:12 PM EST up reply actions  

+/-

also said he went from a -13 to -11

too close to really call an improvement, but def not a regression.

by gbaked on Jan 21, 2010 3:19 PM EST up reply actions  

yeah but its not really enough to be significant when you're talking about one season

especially when you usually need 2 years of fielding data to paint a picture, even with the ultra slight improvement the two year picture still says awful

"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'

it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.

by Gina on Jan 21, 2010 3:21 PM EST up reply actions  

i agree

i dont think he is going to be a good fielder and yes, 3 years worth of data is way better then 2.

My point was more that D stats stink and I dont trust them.

by gbaked on Jan 21, 2010 3:38 PM EST up reply actions  

well total zone stinks

there’s a reasons people usually only use it in instances where uzr and /- aren’t available. theres really no reason to think uzr//-, especially +/- since its based on people actually watching every play from what i understand, stinks.

"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'

it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.

by Gina on Jan 22, 2010 12:19 AM EST up reply actions  

You beat me to it. LOl.

by Coolpapabell on Jan 21, 2010 3:21 PM EST up reply actions  

Also I'd advise looking at the components if they're available

to try and figure out where the difference is coming from.

"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'

it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.

by Gina on Jan 21, 2010 2:10 PM EST up reply actions  

pretty interesting stuff

the shift would be an interesting way to try working around the problem. What I find intriguing is that as soon as he left florida, his +- to the right dropped off to be more on par with his range to the left. I wonder if Florida was playing him shifted back then, and nobody really took notice? It seems odd that in one season he’d go from +20 to the right to -5 the next year and then pretty much average to that side every year afterwards.

by KeithsMoustache on Jan 21, 2010 4:43 PM EST reply actions  

Good post.

Quit whinging, tghr. To suggest Castillo improve his defense James needed to offer proof that his defense needed improving. James did that, then made concrete suggestions as to how that improvement might come about. It was all perfectly constructive.

Now, if the improvement involves the FO understanding defensive metrics, positioning, shifts, playing the odds, and so forth, or even understanding that Castillo is no longer a good defensive player, then we’re shit out of luck. But it was worth a try.

by SeanSchirmer on Jan 21, 2010 5:56 PM EST reply actions  

you might have jinxed it james

“…(except Gary Matthews Jr.) …”

by metsfan93 on Jan 23, 2010 11:15 AM EST reply actions  

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